Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday March 09, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the Three Quarters Delivery podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig is back on Five and Dive and still talking to I will be in and out here early, but let's chat.

bob (philly): What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy and Sean Newcomb this year? Can Murphy still be a .300/25 HR guy in Colorado and is Newcomb ready to bust out this year as a quality starter----or do you think his control issues will continue to limit his ceiling? Thx

Jeffrey Paternostro: Murphy seems to be having the post-peak steep 2B decline, but he can obviously still hit. Depends on how healthy his legs are at any given time. The Braves haven't been too inclined to start Newcomb given their depth of options, but I guess he is back in the mix and I've always liked him, but we are going on like five years of never quite getting the control/command together now.

Earl (CT): 2020 Amed Rosario OPS projection? (.755 in 2019)

Jeffrey Paternostro: .277/.328/.443

Craig (Chicago): Any of the Padres prospect pitchers (besides Gore) expected to make an impact this year on the big club? Morejon, Baez, Patino? Is Morejon being slept on?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Morejon probably has the best chance for 2020 impact whether in the rotation or bullpen, but personally I'd be trying to get him fully stretched out as a starter in the upper minors, which might limit how many innings he can throw for the big club. I doubt you'd see Gore and Patino until very late in the season if at all.

Vic (Baltimore): With a first pick in a 15 team 5 x 5....it's going to come down to deGrom, Cole, Lindor, or Arenado. If this was a redraft I would easily want Lindor, but I am stacked at MI so I don't feel I can take Lindor.....I also like deGrom more than Cole. However, should it be Arenado over either pitcher?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am doing the TINO dynasty league this year (cheap plug) and ended up in a similar spot, although I still had Betts on the board so went with that. I think I would have gone Arenado next in a roto format.

Tim (NJ): Who knows if the velocity bump will stick or maintain over longer stretches of innings, BUT, if David Peterson is sitting 91-93 instead of 88-90, how much does the profile/projection change?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was like 88-92 last year so, it's not a huge bump (and the St. Lucie gun has been a tick or so hot for me in the past), a little more fastball won't hurt of course but he's still pretty fringy, even with average fastball velo from the left side.

bob (media pa): Do you think Tapia can carve out 450 or more AB's in Colorado with that crowded OF situation? And if you think he can, what kind of numbers do you think he could produce-------would a 20/20 year be possible for him in that park?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The one thing I have learned in my ten season doing this is don't even bother trying to project how and how much the Rockies are going to play their prospects. Of course Tapia is now 26 (life comes at you fast) and di get 447 PA last year where he wasn't great. He's never really lifted the ball enough, and is still overaggressive at the plate, and while the hit tool is still above-average there just has never been any improvements anywhere else in the profile, so I'm skeptical at this point.

Craig (Chicago ): Does Logan Webb start the season in the Giants rotation? What’s your outlook for him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: With the Beede injury, he has to beat out like Andrews Suarez? Yeah, that seems possible. He's a pretty generic backend groundball guy for me,

Steve (Texas): Do you anticipate that both Howard and Patiño will debut in 2020? If you were in a dynasty league, which of the two would you target?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Howard is far more likely than Patino, who has thrown 7 innings above A-ball and never thrown 100 in a season. I'd personally lean Patino long term, but the gap isn't so large that the proximity of Howard might not outweigh it.

Fred (Ny): Have you seen any spring training Steven Matz? If he has the 2015 slider going, is he closer to a 2 than a 4?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I saw his first or second outing. "If" is doing a lot of work there, and he ditched the true Warthen slider in part because it made his arm hurt. There is also the matter of whether or not the Mets actually start him assuming all six guys are healthy, but yes, a true swing and miss breaking ball would help the profile.

AL (METS): Are you at all encouraged by Andres Gimenez looks this spring?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've made it a point to see a few Gimenez at-bats out of curiosity. I'm still not a big fan of the swing and he's looked vulnerable against velocity away (which was a major issue last year). He does seem more comfortable with the new mechanics generally, but FWIW b-ref has his opposing pitcher quality as Double-A, so I don't know if I'd read too much into any of this.

Bob (AZ): There are some small - maybe short is a better word - hitters who have ridden surprising pop to very good offensive performances. You don’t seem to think Corbin Carroll can do the same. Why not?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The easy answer is because the vast majority just don't, and Carroll specifically hasn't shown that skill yet. He does have some of the positive markers for power growth that we discussed in our roundtable a couple years ago. Good bat to ball and approach, but there's far more Andres Gimenezes than Ozzie Albieses, so until you see it...

Craig (Chicago): What is your expectation for Edward Cabrera and Nick Neidert when they come up this year? Is one of them more ready to pitch effectively this year than the other?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Cabrera is the better pitching prospect by a fair amount, and I think he could be an above-average starter pretty quickly.

Vic (Baltimore): Being stud closers are few, I am thinking about using a 75ish overall on one. If Hader isn't available, would you say the next 3 are Yates, Osuna, and Chapman in that order?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You could probably get Will Smith into that group but otherwise sure.

Craig (Chicago): Any of the Pirates prospect outfielders have a chance to come up this year and make an impact? Martin? Olivia?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Martin is the closest but the bat is pretty averagish even if stuff goes well for him. Oliva might get a look, but I don't see either breaking in with consistent playing time barring injury until the second half of the season.

John (Florida): If Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Pedro Leon and Oscar Colas were in the minors, about where would they rank in terms of top prospects? Can you offer any comps for each of them? Thank you.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I try not to deal with the Cuban guys until we have them signed with some pro looks because of the usual playing time gap (more of an issue for Leon than Colas). Martin and Torkelson we both already have live reports on. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/57486/wednesday-morning-ten-pack-mlb-draft-prospects/

Both are strong candidates to go 1.1 and I'd expect both to be Top 25ish next year assuming median draft/development paths for bot.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will definitely remember next Monday that I am doing this every Monday now.