Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday March 02, 2020 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the Three-Quarters Delivery podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: We are back to chat about prospects and chew bubble gum and I am all out of bubblegum

KC (Somwhere near Boston.): Sox lefty Jay Groome is coming off TJS and I think he's in a make it or break it season. What do you think he does this year? Is it realistic to project him as a TOR arm? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Make or break might be a bit strong, but I believe the golf term would be "moving day." He looked good when I caught him on rehab late in the year, but we really won't know anything until he starts taking the ball regularly and working deep into games which was a problem even before the TJ.

Vic (Baltimore): Some publications have Lux with a better FV than Adell. Do you agree?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't, but we had them 2 and 3 on our list and Adell nudged Lux out mostly on upside so I see the argument.

Carl (Colorado): Last year, I was successful using PECOTA projections in my drafts especially in finding breakout performers. Pete Alonso is a perfect example, I took him several rounds earlier than his ADP in the NFBC (he had a high 'Breakout' number last year). This year it looks like you've done away with the 'Breakout' number in your projections, do you have a suggestion on what to look at this year? I'm looking for something tangible like a number (or percentage), I KNOW it is not going to be perfect and I use it only as a piece of the whole decision making.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd look at like 70th percentile outcomes on the spreadsheet to try and capture something akin to realistic upside.

Dale (Dallas): In a dynasty league. Please rank the following based on their ceiling: Luciano, Julio Rodrigues or Kelenic.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I'd go Rodriguez, Luciano, Kelenic, but it's not much of a gap anywhere.

Charles (New Mexico): If you looked at you top prospect list and picked five guys who are going to be called up and have an impact this year.....who would you pick?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Adell, Lux and Robert are the obvious ones. Kieboom. Jarrett would want me to mention Nick Madrigal. If you want some deeper, sleeper cuts, I'd lean Jazz Chisholm and Alec Bohm

BC (Fort Myers, FL): Is the Reds' Jose Garcia sneaking up on me? His MO was supposed to be slick-fielding SS, but could his pop last year and spring start have piqued my interest. You think there's anything there worth following?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He just missed our 101, so yes.

BK (Montreal): Give me five names of prospects who could be number 1 come the start of 2021?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wander Franco, Wander Franco, Wander Franco, Wander Franco, Wander Franco

I guess if he gets hurt you could see Adley pip him if still eligible or one of the young projectable latin bats (Rodriguez, Luciano, Robinson)

Marco (Italy): When do you thing the depth charts will be rolled-out by BP? It's a bit disappointing to not see them already - were they not out by this time last year? Or are you prioritizing the kinda-boring "Pecota hates your team" articles instead this year? Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: End of the week I am told.

BC2: The Sequel (Fort Myers, FL): Saw this about Luis Garcia. "Man, he's growing," Nats manager Dave Martinez said before Saturday's game. "I saw this little, skinny kid when I first got here that everybody talked about. Now, man, he's just filling out, just big." Just wondering if any of you guys have put eyes on him recently, and whether this might portend good things for him in AA this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sounds like he is the BSOHL? Also sounds like standard February fluff, but I did like him more than the stat line last year, and I get Harrisburg early this year so I am certainly curious.

Paul (Cleveland ): Assuming everyone returns to full health. Who is the long term closer in Cleveland? karinchak? Clase? Other?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Personally, I'd give to to Karinchak, but this is one of those internal team things that's somewhat unknowable from the outside.

Kim Ha Seong (South Korea): What is my mlb fantasy outlook? If I was a ranked prospect...where would I be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lacks the upside of some of the shortstop in the 90s, but is also about ready to go, so I'd slot him in there somewhere hypothetically

Alec Bohm (Phily): If you had to pick the next wave of top third basemen, who would your top dynasty guys be? Would I be included? Depending on your thoughts, which one of them has the best chance to come up and play in 2020?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well the problem is I don't know if Bohm sticks at third base even in the near term, although I suspect the Phillies will run him out there enough for fantasy eligibility for a bit. He's still probably your best bet for 2020 depending on what Ke'Bryan Hayes does I suppose. Longer term I'd prefer Nolan Gorman.

Vic (Baltimore): Deciding between Judge, Bieber, Strasburg, and Snell for my 2nd round pick in a 16 team 5 x 5....Please rank.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I probably wouldn't take Judge given the new shoulder issues, of the pitchers I'd go Stras.

Jurgen Klock (Riverpool): Which of these 3 players has the best chance to be a star someday: Jake Fraley, Trent Grisham, Kyle Lewis or Myles Straw (that's 4, not 3, but whatever)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeesh, Grisham has been the best in the majors, but not that great, and he's not a guy I'm super buying, all that said, probably Grisham.

bphil2712 (MO): Who are some under the radar prospects in the high minors that could help teams this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'll throw Monte Harrison and Joe Palumbo out I guess.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think we are doing Mondays now with Craig on Wednesdays, sorry Yuri. See you next week.