Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jesse Roche

Chat: Jesse Roche

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday February 21, 2020 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jesse Roche.

Jesse Roche is a member of the Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Team.

Jesse Roche: TGIF, everyone! I'm feeling antsy so we're starting early today. Outfield week (and a half) has begun here at Baseball Prospectus. We decided to divide and conquer our Top-125 Dynasty Outfielders this year, and ~4,000 words on the top-50 is now available. Expect the next 75 on Monday, the deep Ocean's Floor on Tuesday, and then fun times with pitchers beginning later in the week. Ok, now time for the show!

Steve (Atlanta): When will the Scoresheet Draft Aid be loaded with 2020 values? As of Wednesday it still has 2019 values. I have a draft starting this weekend. Some other leagues are already drafting. The draft aid loses value with each day that passes without 2020 data. Please make it a priority.

Jesse Roche: Now! It officially updated this morning at 1:30 am EST according to Bret.

You can find the Scoresheet Draft Aid here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/scoresheet/

Mike (NYC): Dynasty deal, keep forever, 6x6 OBP/FIP league. Which side do you like? Side A: Yoan Moncada (24)/Joe Jimenez (25) Side B: Patrick Corbin (30)/Benintendi (25)

Jesse Roche: Side A. I prefer Moncada alone to Corbin/Benintendi. Think his 2019 breakout is the tip of the fantasy upside iceberg.

Vic (Baltimore): A few years ago Juan Soto went from A Ball to 400+ AB MLB in the same season. Will that ever happen again with a batter? Could Julio Rodriguez be that guy?

Jesse Roche: What Soto did in 2018 was remarkable and a product of circumstance. I talked about it the day he was initially promoted here: https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/05/20/juan-soto-low-mlb-45-days/

Never say never, but it takes a perfect storm for a MLB team to push a 19-year-old prospect like that, especially in this day and age of service time considerations. That said, I do not think Julio Rodriguez will debut in 2020. The Mariners are in the midst of a rebuild and lack the incentive the Nationals had in 2018 to follow a similar path with JRod (who also could begin the year in Double-A). However, Wander Franco could arrive in 2020 on the competitive Rays, though he also likely starts in Double-A.

Loria (Milwaukee): 12 team, 6 X 6 where u can draft 2 designated "prospects" each year for your MiLB roster and keep 7. Then, prospects are "free keepers" (in addition to ur 7) for 3 years after promotion. We use 4OF, MI, CI as extra spots. I have Acuna, Soto, Snell, and Hiura as freebies and must keep 7 from: DeGrom K. Marte Xander Olson Ozuna Hoskins E Suarez Kershaw L. Castillo Soroka Woody Chapman Yates I sold off draft picks to go for it last year (Nope!) and my window is the next 2-3 yrs while those guys are free. Who you keep?

Jesse Roche: It may depend on the 6th categories, but I would keep deGrom, Bogaerts, K. Marte, Olson, Suarez, L. Castillo, and Soroka.

mjquart (Milwaukee): Who you got for this year only: Kershaw or Castillo? For Dynasty?

Jesse Roche: Luis Castillo for both, easy. I remain concerned about recurring back issues for Kershaw. He has not topped 30 starts and 180 innings in a season since 2015.

Steven (Texas): I have the 1st overall pick in my dynast draft should I take Adley Rutschman or Andrew Vaughn?

Jesse Roche: It probably depends on league size and scoring format, but, outside of 24+ team leagues or 2-catcher formats, I recommend Vaughn.

bhacking (Toronto): Sorry, I have to ask again. Scoresheet Draft help coming very soon? The draft is a week away. Thanks.

Jesse Roche: It is here!

summoner (DC): Any idea when the Scoresheet Draft Aid will be live?

Jesse Roche: The demand is real!

Loria (Milwaukee): Deep league with MiLB lineup. Who you got for ultimate upside: May, Pearson, Pitino?

Jesse Roche: Pearson. 100+ mph fastballs and 90+ mph sliders do not grow on trees. He has massive upside.

You can also refer to my ceiling-only ranks here: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/57095/ceiling-only-dynasty-prospect-rankings-the-top-101-of-2020/

Elton (Pacific Northwest): How many consecutive dynasty league seasons is too many to be tanking/rebuilding? I'm entering my fifth year of rebuilding by starting a new rebuild this year and am wondering if I'm doing it wrong.

Jesse Roche: 5 years is probably too many. I normally aim for a 2- to 3-year turnaround. For example, I inherited a team in TDGX last offseason and I plan to position my squad to compete in 2021. I think the error many owners make in rebuilding is not being flexible enough. You do not need to go all prospects and youth. Just get value. I just traded Mitch Keller, a 2021 4, and a 2021 5 for James Paxton, Aaron Hicks, and a 2021 1. I then plan to flip Paxton when he returns to the rotation in May or June for something better than Keller. Actively wheel and deal to slowly, incrementally improve your roster and do not pass on opportunities to buy depreciated 30+ year old talent.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): How do you see the acquisition of Brock Holt impacting the PT in Milwaukee? Will he become the primary 3B or be used at 2B if Huiara continues to struggle defensively? Maybe the roaming fill-in for all positions to keep players fresh?

Jesse Roche: I see Holt simply as a utility piece, and even SS insurance in case Urias' injury lingers. As of now, 3B is a patchwork of Sogard, Gyorko, Holt, and maybe Healy. I do not think Holt represents a threat to playing time for Hiura whatsoever.

Quincy (Ames): Thoughts on Reggie preciado, Jose Acosta and liover peguero?

Jesse Roche: Preciado is 6-foot-4 with loads of room to grow. The dream is potential plus power as he fills out. Maybe a 5/6 FV type. Acosta was old for the DSL (19) in his 2nd assignment there and tore it up (.403/.503/.611). Age matters a ton in the DSL so I would take that performance with a huge grain of salt. Admittedly, there is not much information on Acosta out there, but my gut says he has 5/4/6 potential and he is likely limited to 2B. Watch list him for now to see if he receives a full-season assignment. I doubt he will. Peguero is the best of this bunch. The prize in the Starling Marte trade, he is a silky smooth shortstop with advanced barrel control and explosive bat speed. At just 18 years old, he was one of the youngest players in the Pioneer League, yet he was also among the league leaders in hitting (.364/.410/.559). Peguero has more upside than you’d think, with potential above-average tools across the board as he adds strength.

Willie (Akron): Do you believe in the new and Improved Jazz Chisholm (decrease in k%)

Jesse Roche: I would not put much weight in 94 plate appearances for Jacksonville. Chisholm still had plenty of whiffs (via Fangraphs--16.5% SwStr). Prior to the trade, he actually had less whiffs (15.7% SwStr). I still think he is the same hitter who will see his strikeout rate climb or fall based on his approach. It is artificially higher than it should be because he works deep counts. A bit more aggression would do him good. Of course, if he does not reduce that whiff rate, he is likely going to be a .230-.250 hitter long-term.

Ralphie (Boulder): Thoughts on Herbert Perez, Eduardo Garcia, and Luis toribio?

Jesse Roche: Hedbert Perez is a recent 2019 J2 signing of the Brewers with Tyler O'Neill-type physique (the kid is jacked), and probably similar FV grades for his tools. Eduardo Garcia is a 2018 J2 signing for the same squad who missed most of the season due to injury. He is a glove-first defender with a decent stick, but nothing plus. Luis Toribio is a big-bodied third baseman for the Giants. He was excellent in the Arizona League (166 DRC+), despite barely tapping into the big raw power generated by his large, filled-out frame and quick bat. There is risk that he moves to first base and his hit tool is still quite raw, but he flashes promising power and patience.

Oscar (Concinnati): Kbryan hayes and Jonathan India still get a lot of love - what am I missing?

Jesse Roche: Both are high floor prospects with enough offensive upside to be relevant. Ke'Bryan Hayes is a third base prospect for the Pirates on the cusp of the majors with little in his way for a starting gig. He has been a slow-burn prospect, moving one level at a time since the 2015 Draft, so some prospect fatigue likely is setting in. That said, he offers modest offensive upside with a hit-over-power approach and some speed. His superb defense will keep his bat in the lineup, and he could flirt with 15/15 production with a strong average. This has always been his upside. India, meanwhile, was the fifth-overall pick in the 2018 Draft and has disappointed many despite well-above-average production last year (130 DRC+ in High-A and 141 DRC+ in Double-A). The Florida State and Southern Leagues are tough places to hit, even for a polished college bat. Regardless, India has an average offensive profile (5/5/5) buoyed somewhat by his patient approach.

Josh (TBD): Why does Jonathan India get no love anymore?

Jesse Roche: You cannot please everyone! However, we do love him more than most. I always thought of him as a 5/5/5 prospect, though I thought those 5s could be closer to 55s than 50s. I still see his upside as a .270/20/10 type, which is quite useful, but far from high-end.

Craig (Chicago): I donā€™t see much interest in Eric Lauer this year - prime age, solid K/9, competitive team, strong era last year minus Coors Field games. You like his outlook for this year? Upside?

Jesse Roche: Lauer just does not miss many bats. He had the 16th lowest whiff rate among pitchers with 2000+ pitches thrown. Meanwhile, he had the 3rd lowest swings outside the zone. Finally, he does not generate many ground balls. So despite the positives, Lauer is just not very good (4.85 DRA).

Jon (Warshington ): Have a bit of a roster crunch in my keep 8 league. Already planning to keep bellinger, Harper, Pete Alonso, rendon, Jose Ramirez and Jacob deGrom. Which three would you keep around from Eugenio Suarez, Ozzie Albies, Max Kepler, Starling Marte, Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer or Corey Kluber? Thanks!

Jesse Roche: It depends on league size and scoring. I also count 6 you plan to keep so not sure there is room for 3 in a keep 8 league. Regardless, I'll give you my top 2 plus a 3rd! (1) Albies, (2) Marte, and (3) Sale. I'd consider Suarez, but you are already keeping two 3B.

Mike (Orlando): I'm rebuilding in a dynasty league but intend to be competitive sooner rather than later. Is Jameson Taillon a good guy to target? I know he's got the injury history but it seems like there's still upside here and he should be contributing as soon as 2021, so I'm not sure he's all that different from a lot of prospects.

Jesse Roche: I think Taillon is a fine target if you can get him cheap. We rank him 326th overall, between the 91st and 92nd prospect. Tons of risk, of course, but plenty of upside if he returns healthy (IF).

esix.snead (NY): Jesse, how do you value Glasnow this year? I inherited him in a dynasty league and have gotten a lot of trade offers. I'm worried about his injury risk but bullish on his potential.

Jesse Roche: Glasnow is a divisive player. Some LOVE him. Some HATE him. I fall in the middle. He ranks 75th overall for us. He is basically a 2-pitch arm with tons of injury, command, and relief risk. Those two pitches are incredible, and play up due to his uncommmon size (6-foot-8). Glasnow is also apparently working on adding a splitter to his arsenal to replace his little used change-up. I think he can be elite if healthy and if his command is on, I just am not sure he is a pitcher built to last beyond 5-inning stints long-term.

For trade context, in TDGX, the following trade occurred 3 weeks ago: Tyler Glasnow, Tommy Edman, and Edwin Rios for FYPD Pick 1.3, Nolan Jones, Jordan Groshans, and Francisco Alvarez.

Hustle (Los Angeles): Kevin Alcantara or Ezequiel Duran? Who is more likely to be on the cover for MLB The Show?

Jesse Roche: Alcantara. Potential 5-tool CF if everything falls right.

Ryan (Marshall): I recently found out that a prospect I own in a fantasy league found out I owned him and requested a trade to a contending fantasy team. Do I oblige or hoard him out of spite. It was Jazz Chisholm FYI.

Jesse Roche: You have to hoard Jazz. He'll bring fans into the fake stands!

Jordan (South Dakota): Oneil Cruz is tall.

Jesse Roche: Quite

Bailey (MD): How excited should I be getting about Tim Cate on the Nationals. Will he be in the rotation the next time they win the World Series? He is my lifeblood.

Jesse Roche: I would not get that excited. I think Cate's future is in the pen as a curveball specialist.

Jasson Dominguez Stan (Jasson Dominguez, NY): OK, all jokes aside, how good do you think Jasson Dominguez can be?

Jesse Roche: Dominguez has had FV grade creep over the past year. I think he has 30/30 upside, but he is already pretty physically maxed out, which is a big reason why everyone loves him. At 16, he already flashes plus power and double-plus speed. That said, my realistic ceiling projection for him is .280/.350/.510/30/25, which may even be lighter than how some view him.

Adrienne (The 305): In a 16 team points keeper league: Wander Franco for Aaron Judge, who says no?

Jesse Roche: The Franco owner. Franco is a future points league God.

Dan (DC): The Dodgers were seemingly going to trade Stripling and Joc for Luis Rengifo. Is there another team that should jump on a similar deal? I was thinking maybe the Nats could pursue those two guys for someone like Tim Cate, who is obviously a far better prospect than Rengifo but would still make sense.

Jesse Roche: Man, two Tim Cate questions! Our prospect team has Cate as an OFP 50 / No. 4 or No. 5 starter. Rengifo, meanwhile last year, was an OFP 50—Second-division keystoner who plays up into an average regular for several years and plays for a long time. Realistically, both are probably 45 role players. I imagine the Dodgers still look to move Pederson and/or Stripling. Plenty of time before the season still.

Kyle C. (H-Town): McCullers or Cease in a dynasty points league?

Jesse Roche: Cease by a thin margin. I think he is a safer bet to stick as a starter long-term with less health risk. I really like both, though.

Michael (Pleasantville): Marco Luciano for Gary Sanchez?

Jesse Roche: Depends on context, but I still prefer Sanchez generally. However, as a rebuilding team, I would move Sanchez for Luciano.

Kevin (Wooderton): Snell for Gallen and Soroka is that a reasonable price?

Jesse Roche: I love Soroka, so I would move Snell for Soroka/Gallen, but some remain infatuated with Snell and less so with Soroka so you may be able to do better.

Vic (Baltimore): Why can't I take deGrom over Cole? Seems to be at least a reasonable debate.

Jesse Roche: You can, and it is a reasonable debate.

mjquart (Milwaukee): Dynasty draft. Rank: Kelenek, J Rodriguez, Luciano, Abrams, Carlson?

Jesse Roche: Go check out our dynasty Top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/56751/the-top-101-dynasty-prospects-for-2020/

(1) Julio Rodriguez, (2) Jarred Kelenic, (3) Marco Luciano, (4) Dylan Carlson & (5) CJ Abrams

Vic (Baltimore): 1st three picks in a 15 team keeper league non snake.... I am deciding between... 1...Bellinger, Cole, or deGrom 2...Harper, Starling Marte, Judge 3...Rizzo, Bryant, Kershaw Any strong avoids? Any strong musts?

Jesse Roche: (1) Bellinger is a must over those arms
(2) Harper is easily my preference, but there is a case for Judge
(3) Bryant by far

Craig (Chicaho): Standard 5x5 roto, please rank the following: Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell, Ketel Marte

Jesse Roche: (1) Marte, (2) Bell, (3) Goldschmidt, (4) Pham & (5) Ozuna

Smitty (Wilmington): In my longest running dynasty league, we're voting tomorrow on permanently banning all Astros players from the pool. This would mean that any player in the Astros organization, majors or minors, from 2017-2019 would be removed from the pool, never to be added again. Do you think this is a good idea? The way we see it, the Commissioner of MLB did a poor job of punishing the actual players, so we're going to do this idiotic thing to break out league to overcompensate for that totally unrelated fact.

Jesse Roche: I heard about this outlandish idea and I think it is bizarre and silly.

Festivus313 (Phoenix ): I enjoy your work. Thanks for the chat! More valuable: 2 years of Kyle Schwarber or 6 years of AJ Puk? H2H 30 team dynasty league Categories: PA, HR, XBH, BB, SB, AVG and IP, QS, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

Jesse Roche: Thanks! 6 years of Puk is more valuable

bob m (philly): With a new mgr and hitting coach, and some changes in his swing, do you expect to see a big bounce back from Rhys Hoskins this year? Also, I have the top pick in our NL only minor league draft----how would you rank these available players: Luciano, Abrams, Carlson, K. Robinson and Patino! Thx

Jesse Roche: A bounceback starts with a less extreme approach. His 24 degree launch angle is a recipe for a low average. Hoskins has power, but not elite power, so he needs to find more of a balance for more success. I do think he has .250/35 upside.

(1) Robinson, (2) Luciano, (3) Carlson, (4) Abrams, and (5) Patino

Cameron (Beverly Hills): Thoughts on Alexander Ramirez (Mets), Connor Wong, and Peyton Burdick?

Jesse Roche: Alexander Ramirez is a recent 2019 J2 signing (not to be confused with the 2018 J2 signing of the same name) with an intriguing blend of present speed and projectable power emanating from his 6-foot-3 frame. Connor Wong recently was part of the Mookie Betts trade. A change in organizations actually benefits him a lot as he leaves the crowd of catchers in the Dodgers org. Wong’s combination of athleticism, power, and consistent hard contact is tantalizing. Unfortunately, swing-and-miss is simply part of his game and leads to legitimate concern regarding the efficacy of his hit tool. Peyton Burdick was a 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft. He impressed in the Midwest League (.307/.408/.542) and offers plus raw power with a touch of speed. His hit tool remains questionable, and he had some swing-and-miss (13.3% SwStr) in Low-A. Still, he is a nice mid-round pick in FYPDs this offseason.

Bubic Hair (In your soup): Does George Valera start the year in full season ball? Realistically, when could you see him debuting in the majors?

Jesse Roche: Valera finished in Low-A so I would expect him to start there in 2020. If he progresses at a normal pace, I'd expect A/A+ in 2020, A+/AA in 2021, and AA/AAA/MLB in 2022 with a full arrival in 2023.

Arnold (Queens, Ny): Is Madrigal capable of putting up 300/375/400s at peak?

Jesse Roche: I think his peak is even better. He is a special, unique hitter who could be a .315/.375/.450 hitter at peak.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Dynasty keeper league....available farm guys are Jasson Dominguez, D. Carlson, S. Howard, G. Rodriguez, Torkelson, Hancock, Austin Martin, Bleday, R. Greene. Please rank...Thanks

Jesse Roche: Open universe!

(1) Dylan Carlson, (2) Jasson Dominguez, (3) Spencer Torkelson, (4) Austin Martin, (5) Emerson Hancock, (6) J.J. Bleday, (7) Spencer Howard, (8) Riley Greene & (9) Grayson Rodriguez

Underwig (Taos): Where would you rate Cristian Javier if he were from last years draft class? Heā€™s available in many second year rookie drafts for dynasty leagues. Being as dominant as he was itā€™s hard to ignore that, right?

Jesse Roche: Cristian Javier is a pitcher for the Astros. He put up huge numbers in the minors last year behind a plus, swing-and-miss curveball. He lacks ideal size (shorter than 6-foot-1), he has command and control issues, and his change-up is borderline. As such, most project Javier to the pen long-term. I have him behind most of the top arms from the 2019 class (Lodolo, Rutledge, Kirby, Manoah, Allan, Priester, Song, Espino, Thompson, Malone, Walston, and Small). In other words, he would not fall within our top-50 FYP rankings. For further context, I have him outside of my top 300 overall prospects. Javier's profile just carries far too much risk without the upside of arms with similar risk profiles.

darielsantana (santo domingo): 120 total players kept. H2H. I need help with my last keeper. Im keeping 2 SP (Snell and Giolito) and want to keep a 3rd one. Who do you keep: Carrasco, Montas or Gore?

Jesse Roche: Gore of those 3. Soroka (from a follow-up question) over Gore!

boatman44 (Liverpool): Hey Jesse got too keep one of Solack, Newman or Arrieta in a 16 team points league where we keep 10 who do you like?

Jesse Roche: Newman just barely over Solak. Do NOT keep Arrieta!

Craig (Chicago): Of the group of Miami starting pitchers, is there a breakout candidate amongst them? Caleb Smith in a full season? Elieser Hernandez?

Jesse Roche: Of those arms, I am lower on Smith than most and his cost to acquire is too much for my taste. I do like Pablo Lopez still as a potential breakout, but I am far from confident.

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier? What's his upside?

Jesse Roche: His upside is so high, I had to remove him from the Ceiling-Only Top 101 because it burned with the light of a thousand suns.

Jesse Roche: There are even more questions in the Q, but it has been nearly 2 hours and it is time to call it quits. I will be back this time next week before heading down to Florida for First Pitch hosted by Baseball HQ! TGIF and enjoy the weekend!