Join Lead Prospect Writer Jeffrey Paternostro to talk about the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects List.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: Waiting to see what unexciting draw Wednesday get in the FA Cup so might as well chat.
Mary (Bay Area): What did you see/hear about Nolan Gorman last year that still has him as a top 25 prospect after a mediocre full season showing?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I would quibble a bit with it being mediocre, as he posted a 129 DRC+ in A-ball as a 19-year-old. Context is very important with minor league stats, and The Midwest League generally, and Peoria specifically is a tough environment to hit, especially in the early months. But I'm not super concerned with the stats anyway, other than that the plus-plus raw is already translating some to games against older arms. There's rawness at the plate, but Nathan noted his improving defense at third (good enough to stick) and good athleticism for his size. I think he's a prospect that will only improve with more game reps, and that's baked into the ranking already.
Roger Dorn (Cleveland): Deivi Garcia is the first name that really jumps out on this list. You are easily the highest on his potential outcome from the other baseball outlets. With his short sample size and "size" in general, what was it about him that gave the collective at BP reason to be so optimistic? Thanks.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I don't read other lists, but this was one that was uh pointed out to me by other people already and it's odd to me. Garcia was a hot name all Summer everywhere. And the curve has been a monster for two years, the velocity has steadily increased and he's added a good slider, and the change is fine. He is a legit 5-foot-9, but every staff report we had was strong this year and I didn't think that would be out of step with the industry. But I'm often terrible at predicting "industry consensus" or whatever as I've learned over the last half-decade. tl;dr He looked like a potential top of the rotation starter on our staff live looks which drive the list.
tbwhite (San Diego): Why Gabriel Arias > Xavier Edwards? I know it's just one spot so it's not really significant, but you still chose to place Arias higher, why? I think most Padres fans would have expected the opposite and would have expected Edwards to be much higher on the list.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I think this might be one of those situations where the sheer volume of fantasy baseball players that consume these lists have an outsized perception effect. I assume Edwards will be significantly higher on the Dynasty 101 because speed/steals, but the difference between a good defensive shortstop and an average defensive second baseman is significant in actual baseball value. Arias is a bit less polished with the hit tool but has much better power projection. Edwards is going to have to hit a lot to make up the defensive difference based off our reports, and while the steals make that easy in a 5x5, it doesn't make up the gap between the lines.
Joe M. (Maine): Fantasy Question. First pick in AL-Only MILB draft and Rutschman, J. Rodriguez, and Vaughn are available. Who's the best combination of proximity to the majors and highest expected ceiling?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: Carsley is going to repeatedly hit me with a shock collar if I pick a catcher, but I'd take Julio anyway.
darielsantana (Santo domingo): Would you keep Adell in a league where 120players are kept?
My other OF are Mookie Eloy and Stanton
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I would keep Adell close to my heart and never let him go. I would also keep him in your league.
Ashley (Albuquerque): What is the process for deciding how and where to rank a new J2 prospect like Jasson Dominguez who hasn't played any games yet?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: Personally (and I say this on the podcast) I don't think we should be ranking any of these guys. Most of these lists are apples to oranges comparisons in a lot of cases (Something Jarrett wrote about at length in our Midseason 50 content package), but comparing Dominguez to Sean Murphy isn't even the same school of botany. That said more people would complain if we didn't rank him, so you try to talk to people that saw him in domestic instructs if they came over. (This was also a massive problem with Luis Robert) a couple years ago too.
Enrique (Unknown): You no likey Simeon Woods Richardson?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I like SWR fine, and he'd probably have made a Top 150 or thereabouts. The stuff isn't quite as good as the stat line and we think he has more reliever risk than the arms towards the back of the 101. I doubt anyone outside of the Mets and Jays orgs saw him more than our Sally guys this year and there wasn't a strong push to get him on the list, although the difference between him and say Alek Manoah isn't as large as the numerical gap.
Dina (Tempe): Should Alex Kirilloff's ranking of #86 make us concerned it was more than just injury that contributed to his down year?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I am using this as a proxy for the dozen Kiriloff questions in chat. The injury is certainly part of it, but I wasn't a huge fan of the profile when he was hitting, and he hit less, looks more like a first baseman, and the staff members that saw him this year argued for him around this spot.
Morty (Peppertown): In a home league where we carry 200 minor league spots. Is Victor Victor Mesa a lottery ticket to hold or should I cut bait (Marlins pun) and set my sights on a higher floor/ceiling prospect?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I think you can probably find a better prospect with those parameters.
brad (NJ): Brendan Rodgers came into the year a top 10-15sih spect, had a solid year, and most other lists have him around that same top 15ish spot. What has you so much lower on him than others? You have to also take the Coors adjustment into affect when evaluating him.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: The nice thing about not writing about fantasy baseball is I do not have to do that last part. But yeah, I talk about Rodgers a fair bit on the podcast, as I saw him a lot in 2017/18, and never really saw the slam dunk Top 50 prospect, but we had better staff and industry reports and the performance was always good enough that I couldn't really sustain an argument. It's partially my finally catching up to my own opinions on the player (which is a weird way to phrase it, I will admit) and some concerns about how he looked against major league arms and the fairly significant injury.
LindoMafia (Baltimore): BP seems to be the outlier on DL Hall, completely outside your 101 despite being inside the top-50 elsewhere. What is the rationale there?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: We think there is reliever risk based on the control/command and third pitch issues. I'm also personally not a huge fan of the delivery. Again, the difference between him and like Manoah isn't particularly vast, but I do think there's a fair gap between him and say, Grayson Rodriguez.
Jim (Chicago): You guys seem to be the most conservative on Brailyn Marquez. I realize he's a pitching prospect, but is Kyle Muller (another big LH, big FB pitcher) really that much better in your view?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: We might be low here on Marquez, we just wanted to see a longer run as the second half, capital "d" Dude before we push the chips in. FWIW, Jarrett predicted on the pod that he had a great shot at being one of the best pitching prospects in baseball when we publish our 2021 list
Riley (NY): Question about 102nd best prospect, Matt Allan.
I don't totally understand how he hold teams he price tag was $3MM+, but he ended up signing for $2.5. Is this a case of a total bluff, or was he potentially willing to take less money from the Mets specifically to sign? Basically, would he have gone higher than 91(?) if teams knew he would end up signing with the Mets for $2.5?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I am sure this will get dumped in a 2023 Athletic piece, so we will probably just have to wait until then.
John (Boston): Do you guys a top 100 prospect fantasy rankings? Who are the guys that would be higher on that list?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: We do. I believe it's going up Thursday.
Tim (SLC): What separates Jasson Dominguez from Robert Puasson by such a large margin? Both signed for $5.1M and were generally ranked 1-2 on list of international prospects, but Dominguez shows up 38, 46, and 54 on the three major publications, while Puasson does not make any of the lists.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I can't speak for other places, but for us it was confidence intervals based on the information we could get.
Ralph (Michigan): What is Erick Pena’s ceiling and how confident are you that he becomes a future all star? Also what J2 guys in 2020 excite you?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: On that note, I don't know how confident I am Pena isn't the second-best 2019 J2 guy. Confindence intervals, man.
marco (Italy): No love for Andres Munoz - a guy that chucks it 100 MPH and could be a top closer as early as this year?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: He wasn't list-eligible, over on days of service. We do like our velocity boys though.
Jefferson Airplane (Boston): Re your response to an earlier Q: Do you consider it a potential limitation/flaw of BPs output if you feel you can't adequately comment/get a feel for J2/DR guys? Is BP looking to increase its scouting in those areas to try and obtain additional information on those areas where you currently have limited information?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: Yep, and it's been discussed internally. I will note that I have ethical qualms about wading too deep into those waters.
ironcityguys (daBurgh): Any consideration to having Julio Ramirez #1 overall? How many players have a higher ceiling in your opinion?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I am guessing this is Rodriguez,and the number one arguments stopped for us around Robert. I actually don't think the pure ceiling argument helps him a *ton* as a lot of that ranking his how much the tools have translated into skills already.
MK (Houston): Kyle Muller is quite a bit higher than I expected given his control issues. Do you see him putting it together?
Top 101 Prospects Chat: I've learned to listen to David Lee, and he's been a big Muller booster for a while. The control issues are more of a blip in the overall track record, although he has some "tall lefty" delivery issues, but the stuff is so good it won't have to come together all that much.
Top 101 Prospects Chat: All right I am gonna make myself a cocktail and watch the FA Cup draw and then do a bunch of roundtables. We'll have more 101 content throughout the week.