Baseball Prospectus - Chat with San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat

Chat: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday January 02, 2020 1:00 PM ET chat session with San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat.

This chat will be to discuss the San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: New year, same chats

Eric (Oregon): I've got a buddy who scouts the Northwest League and so I've been hearing about Alex Canario for a while. He told me recently that one of his predictions for 2020 is that Canario has a big breakout and "sky rockets" up lists. He uses the word "raw" a lot but says the potential is there for a Kristian Robinson/Julio Rodriguez type rise in 2020 (not really comping them, but suggesting a possible rise from relative anonymity to top prospect in a season). Can you back this up at all? Even if he's the high guy on him, I'm just wondering if you think this kind of potential is in there. Thanks!

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: So he doesn't rank all that far off where we were on Robinson and Rodriguez before 2019, but that next step is a big one. Canario doesn't have the athleticism and projection of those two--he's not unathletic, but he's on the stout side already--and he's more of a bat-only prospect than the other two. In a way Matos is more likely to have that kind of rise, although I think he's also overall less likely to be a better prospect than Canario by the end of 2020, if that makes sense.

Carl (San Antonio ): What would you say is the best case outcome for Heliot Ramos? Is there a comp you can think of?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: I don't have a specific comp, but something between the Ryan Braun decline years and Yoenis Cespedes seems like a range.

Mark (Tampa): As purely a dynasty fantasy asset, Joey Bart sucks.

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: I've been seeing a lot of dynasty prospect lists and mock drafts across my timeline recently ('tis the season I suppose), and I've come to realize that fantasy baseball is such a willful misreading of what on-field baseball value actually is that it's mostly irrelevant to my day to day job. But yeah, don't draft catchers.

Jimmy (SF): Alex Canario -- is his HR upside 30+? I saw his Est. FB distance was insane.

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: Don't scout the Trackman, but yeah, the pop is real. He's a long way away though, and the approach and swing might limit how much of it he gets to in major league games if and when he gets to major league games.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Logan Webb had great bb/k rates and high GB rates in the minors, yet when people talk about him, they say he has a 5th starter ceiling. What are the factors that keep his overall ceiling so low despite the sweet periphs?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: The stuff tends to be a bit too hittable overall. Anyway, nothing wrong with a backend starter

Yuri (Israel): My new year's resolution was to be kinder to Craig (even though his chats are mind-numbingly dull and his only function at BP appears to be tweeting out the great work of other talented authors), so here's to 2020. Anyway, where would you rank the Giants farm compared to all the other teams?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: It's in the mush ball middle of our current org ranking draft. A lot of fun at the top, thins out a bit to fringe-average depth, and a bit bat heavy. That's still an improvement over recent vintages, and it could look a lot better in a year depending on the course of Canario, Matos, Toribio.

Jefferson Airplane (Boston): Luis Matos not in the top 10 is interesting. Due mainly to the lack of first hand looks?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: I don't know about mainly, but that's a factor. Our relative comfort level ranking any recent J2 prospect is going to vary significantly from player to player. I also don't see him as all that far off of Canario despite the ranking gap. The variance is just going to be extreme until there is more of a pro track record.

Chris (Tempe): In my long running dynasty league, I've gotten several offers already this offseason for Alexander Canario. Whenever this happens, I usually take it to mean I should hold. The last time I remember getting bombarded about a lesser known prospect during the offseason, it was the year before Ronald Acuna blew up. I'm not suggesting Canario is Acuna but is he right at that tipping point of prospect-dom or something?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: So, I suspect there's going to be opportunities to sell high on guys who post big complex league stats generally. Canario isn't an Acuna level prospect, and Acuna had full-season at bats (And a top 50 ranking from us) before he blew up. Canario isn't at that level yet. I guess it depends on the deal here, but his value might never be higher. I would suspect you aren't going to get such a good deal that it isn't worth holding for another year though. But as I said earlier, not a fantasy guy.

markusjone (Stockholm): Gregory Santos had an injury plagued season, but what is your view on him?

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: Like the arm, but shoulder strains make me very nervous. There was always significant relief risk, although late-inning relief stuff, but let's see him healthy again. He was in contention for Low Minors Sleeper or even the backend of the list, for what its worth.

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Chat: We are going to switch to division chats for the Central so see you in a bit for the AL version.