Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat

Chat: Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday November 22, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat.

This chat will be to discuss the Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: It's very Seattle weather out my office window. Appropriate for a Mariners chat.

Ben (CA): As always, Thanks for taking the time to do this. Please help me dial it back a bit on Julio Rodriguez. Rationally, I knows it’s crazy but I’m so hyped, I have visions of him advancing multiple levels and be knocking on the mlb door in 2021. Please Tell me why I’m crazy to be so excited.

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: Well, you have come to the right place because I am probably the most tempered on JRod on the team (still probably going to have him sniffing around the top 10 of the 101, mind you). It's not quite as explosive as you'd expect for a high end OF prospect. The flip side of that is he has way more present baseball skills than you'd expect from an 18-year-old in A-ball. It's also likely to be a corner profile in the end and those dudes realllllly have to hit to be stars.

Martin (Berlin): Does JRod have an upside comparable to Jo Adell?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: Well, that's some whiplash. I am of course conversely the high guy on staff on Jo Adell (no, Craig doesn't count). But there's a short list of potential superstar outfielders this cycle, and Rodriguez is one of them, sure.

sara (ca): Has Kellenic performed so well that even if Díaz is back to his usual standard next season, the Mets will still regret it?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: Flags fly forever, but they are gonna need to hang one. There's a range of regret here too. If Kelenic is just a good everyday outfielder, something along the lines of Michael Conforto, this looks different than it does if he's a perennial all-star or something.

Matt (Boston): You appear to be the high guys on Kelenic. Is there enough in the other tools to still make him a star player if the hit tool is more of a 50-55? He seemed at one point to be one of those guys where if the hit tool feel a bit short, the package suddenly became kinda meh. The type of player that hits .270 with 20-25 HR, a handful of SB, and ability to fake CF(I think Brandon Nimmo without the walks was the comp).

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: Nimmo was like a five win player in his one full healthy season, so that's a pretty good outcome yeah. I think the underlying hit tool is a bit better than Nimmo's too. At least to the point where he gets to more of the plus raw than Nimmo generally has.

(also not that it matters, but I am pretty sure we won't be the high source on Kelenic)

Matt (WA): Lots of publicity about the top end guys in the M's system (Kelenic, Julio, Gilbert, etc.). What's your read on the depth in the system?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: There's really strong depth in potential above-average types, although it's hard to see stars past the top few names. I wouldn't sleep on Raleigh or Kirby specifically. It still is a bit thin in the next ten, but that's broadly in line with most systems.

someguynamedkenn (Central NJ): Who do you have more faith in to remain a starter long term? Logan Gilbert or Justin Dunn?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: Gilbert's the better prospect, so by that standard, Gilbert, but both have more starter shape to their profile than reliever. That's a recent change for Dunn, as I discuss in his blurb.

Dylan (RI): Other than handedness, how does Kelenic compare to the now CF playing Nick Senzel?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: I mean, I'd feel far more comfortable with Kelenic in CF for one. Broadly is isn't an awful prospect comp in terms of a guy with a brand base of skills, but no one monster tool. I imagine Kelenic will rank roughly where Double-A Senzel did as well.

Half of Mets Twitter. (The interweb): Do you think Kelenic debuts in 2020? What do you see his ultimate big league future looking like? Did the Mets really trade away a generational talent for Diaz and Cano?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: I think definitionally a generational talent has to be an OFP 80. We can just call him a really good prospect and that's fine.

Matt (WA): Have we seen enough development from Shed Long to project him as an everyday 2B?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: I'd give him a clean shot in 2020 yeah. I've always liked the profile, but I don't know if there is quite enough there for him to be the everyday guy on the next good Mariners team, but uh...could be waiting a few years for that still.

Matt (WA): Your take on the Evan White contract? M's gonna try this with any other minor leaguers?

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: It's basically the Kingery deal. Kingery was closer to the majors and had a higher floor given the athletic tools, also had more incentive to take it given he wasn't a huge bonus guy. We like White obviously and think the power is getting underrated some, but I also don't know if theirs huge surplus upside for the Mariners here. On the other hand, this is the kind of contract teams wildly overvalue when it comes to dealing prospects so there's that angle too.

John (WA): Maybe it's just me but isn't late 2021/early 2022 a very conservative MLB ETA for Gilbert? He's already had success in AA - I would have thought late 2020/early 2021 at the latest.

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: He could punch his own ticket with a strong 2020, sure.

Seattle Mariners Top 10 Chat: We will wrap up the AL West with Texas on Monday. I can only assume Yuri is saving all his material for Craig's upcoming Reddit AMA