Baseball Prospectus - Chat with New York Yankees Top 10 Chat

Chat: New York Yankees Top 10 Chat

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday November 08, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with New York Yankees Top 10 Chat.

This chat will be to discuss the New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: First week of lists in the book, only uh /checks notes 9 more to go

Pete (NJ): Thanks for chatting! Love list season. I'm wondering about Albert Abreu. I can't quit on his stuff. And I remember scouts pointing out that Betances would never have enough control of his body to repeat his delivery and gain command. So nothing is impossible. But are there any signs Abreu can turn it around?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Abreu's issues aren't entirely mechanical. There is some weird timing shit (directly from my notes) but he repeats well enough despite minimal lower half engagement. He does tend to lose the zone as he gets tired and that runs along with more general durability/stamina issues that might ticket him for the pen anyway. There's enough feel for the three pitches though that I would give him at least another year to try and put together a healthy season starting. Yankees might have a need for him in the pen at some point next year though.

Thomas (Twin Cities): Convince me to why I (like you guys) should fall in love with Ezequiel Duran. Older IFA sign for only $10K, got beat up in Pulaski, and only plays 2B

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Three years on, bonus number don't really concern me. Gilberto Jimenez got the same check. You have to look at what's on the field at present and what you can project, and it's not like teams are close to perfect at identifying these guys at 16 (or in some cases, 15 or 14). Players develop at different paces and times. On Duran specifically, he was hurt for much of that Appy campaign, but it was clear this year that the bat was legit and he's a very good second baseman (that could probably slide over to SS once a week if he retains the athleticism in his 20s).

Clint Frazier (GD Scranton): I know I'm not eligible, but where would I have ranked on this list if I were?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: You were fourth on the 25U, but only behind Garcia among prospects. It's an apples to oranges comparison now, as we have a lot more info on you in the majors, but you were every bit the amateur prospect Dominguez was in a lot of ways, and there's actually a decent chance their prospect arcs are similar. Obviously Dominguez has the unrealized upside, while we've seen Frazier's warts. So it depends on how much you want to weigh upside versus proximity, Dominguez is eons away. I don't think you'd be lower than three is the actual answer I guess.

Yuri (Israel): I'm not sure what's more exciting: Yankees system day or another chat hosted by someone other than Craig. Anyway, will Anthony Volpe make the top 101?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Our long list is I think 206 names at the moment and the top eight are all on it. I'd say the top two are locks, the next three are probably but not locks, Volpe is probably not but maybe, and Florial and Duran are more 150ish. That is mostly a guess as I haven't even done more than roughly tier it out yet, and this stuff is fluid for another few weeks.

Frankie (New Yawk): Do the Yankees really add Luis Medina and Luis Gil to the 40-man roster? That would be a bold gamble for anyone to take them no?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: The Blue Jays selected and carried Elvis Luciano all year, who was a worse prospect and harder to hide in a pen. So it'd be a big risk on the Yankees part.

Steven (New York, NY): Hi Jarrett, Great list! My question is on Albert Abreu. What put him ahead of Medina and Gil? His health issues had me thinking he'd be lower, but he obviously had good stuff and is at a higher level. Anything beyond that?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Hi Steven, it's actually Jeffrey again. I don't have super strong feelings on the order of 3-5, although I'm most confident on Medina over Gil I think. I'm guessing it's a range of 25 spots or so on the backend of a 101. Abreu's proximity to the majors and present stuff was the difference for me, although you could certainly argue Gil and Medina have more upside. Again like with the Frazier discussion, it's an issue of whose warts we have and haven't seen, although both Gil and Medina have command issues to iron out.

DBITLefty (Miami ): I'm curious about your thoughts on Daniel Alvarez, if you have any. Short-relief seems to suit him well, as he really took off after becoming the Thunder's closer. He throws lots of different pitches (I've seen him use cutter, sinker, power curve, power change, and a palmball) and has blossomed into a strikeout machine. I don't envision him as someone the Yankees would protect from the Rule 5, or someone with high risk to be taken - but, do you see him as having a future in the majors this or next season?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Sure. It's more middle relief than late inning, but I liked the breaking ball, and the Yanks usually get a lot out of these guys (and then they pop up in the Mariners bullpen after a minor Jerry Dipoto deal)

Brian (Bronx): Wow you guys sure are high on Kevin Alcantara, did you just want to be early on him if/when he blows up?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: We don't generally play that game, at least not on purpose, and it's impossible to be that far ahead on anyone nowadays anyway. Steve just really liked him in XST/complex ball. It's rarely more complicated than that.

TINSTAPP (Staten Island): % chance that Roansy is an SP long term?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: I think it's a bit more likely than the Luises or Abreu, but the stuff limits the upside there a little compared to the names ahead of him. Maybe 50/50ish. FWIW I'd have Roasny higher on a personal pref list.

brad (NJ): Here are the things that worry me about young SP... Under 6 feet, small build, increasing reliance on slider, lack of innings built up specifically more than 160 back to back years, basically everything I worry about in a young SP is Deivi Garcia.....Can he be a legit SP or will he not hold up injury wise and end up in pen?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Almost no pitching prospects throw 160 back to back in the minors now. Maybe Mike Soroka or Dustin May were close. But yeah, I was slow to get on the Garcia wagon (Jarrett had to talk me into ranking him as highly as we did last year) for all of those reasons. Ultimately the stuff is the stuff, and he's not that slider reliant anyway, I assume he was working it in more as a new pitch development thing. Anyway, you wouldn't go broke betting on most pitching prospects to end up relievers.

Goblin King (Trolldonia): Who is the next Jasson Dominguez

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Actually Nick, I was able to pick out your troll question after all

Aaron (Austin, TX): At what point in 2020 will TJ Sikkema blow up and look like an absolute steal for the Yankees?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: With Yankees pitching prospects usually somewhere plus or minus a month after they get promoted from A+ to AA

Joey Doughnuts (Bronx Baby): How many of these guys are getting traded this winter for Pitching?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: I wonder who are the available arms that the Yanks would want. It seems much simpler to just sign Gerrit Cole. The tanking teams have almost uniformly awful pitching (feature, not a bug). I suppose some weird Luis Medina package for Matt Boyd could be in play, but also the best thing about Matt Boyd is the contract, and he's a very marginal gain for a fully healthy Yanks rotation. There's always #mysteryarms to come I suppose.

Greg (LA): Are we a top 15 system anymore? Other than Dominguez's potential, doesn't feel like we have any real blue chippers.

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Prooooooobably. It's more on the average side of good, but it's still remarkably deep, and 8 top 206 or whatever guys isn't bad. You could make an argument there isn't much impact talent past the top two, but I also wouldn't be surprised if one of the next tier of arms pops. They are short on bats generally though, and especially above A-ball.

Matt S (New York): Was there any thought of having Canaan Smith in the top 20?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: He was in the 21-30 range, which easily could have ended up in the 15-20 range. The system gets very mushy past like Sikkema.

MelonvilleSports (AB Canada): I'm intrigued by Canaan Smith's 2019 stat line at Charleston. I know better than to scout strictly off a stats line but .305 avg, .402 OBP and .862 OPS over 500+ pa. Not bad for a 20 year old taking their first crack at Lo-A.

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: It's an interesting profile, but he's likely limited to left field, and while he's flashed raw power, the swing is more geared for oppo and doubles at present. It's a tough fit in a corner, but certainly a guy to keep an eye on if they can unlock something.

Rob (Sarasota ): Is jasson Dominguez the real deal?

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: One of the seasons of QI they had one trivia question that no one anywhere actually knew the answer to, and you could hold up a little paddle with a question mark on it or something when you thought no one actually knew the answer. That's kind of how I feel about Dominguez. The track record of these kind of big bonus tools guys is generally good, although there are a fair few Gilbert Laras and Kevin Matians in there, and at times the IFA end of things can make college recruiting websites look downright demure. We know the tools are major league quality, but we don't know how he will acclimate to pro baseball yet. Anyway, it's my job to have an opinion on this anyway, and all available info, and subsequently our ranking points to yes. That's probably more nuance than my audience is looking for.

New York Yankees Top 10 Chat: Life is too short to spend the rest of it down here in Tampa, but we'll spend an hour or so there on Monday,