Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat

Chat: Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday November 06, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat.

This chat will be to discuss the Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Hmm, queue is a little lighter for this one than even the Orioles. Wonder why?

Lars (Laramie): Darwinzon Hernandez was promoted almost immediately after being converted to a reliever. Where do you think he would slot if he were still eligible?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Somwhere in the Ward/Groome/Mata range, maybe towards the top if you wanted to heavily weight near-term value since all those arms have at least a moderate degree of reliever risk anyway.

Carl (San Antonio): What's the upside of a Triston Casas? Is there a player comp you feel comfortable with if it all clicks?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Forest and I went back and forth discussing whether or not to throw an OFP 60 on the profile, I think we both agreed by the end that he is the line between 55 and 60 as hair-splitting is that is. Now that's not, strictly speaking, upside. The .270/30/100 outcome that Ben suggests in the Fantasy section seems like the good, reasonable upside outcome. That feels uh Matt Olsonish I guess.

Michael (Bawhston): Where does Jarren Duran profile in the Boston OF? Doesn’t seem to be a clear spot for playing time

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: There will be once they trade Mookie Betts? Is this too soon? I guess it hasn't even happened yet. I still suspect he's more a good bench outfielder on a first-division team, which I suppose Boston still fancies themselves.

Ben (CA): Thanks for chatting with us. Would I be wrong to say that there’s not much high upside talent in this system? And any thoughts on Mike Shawaryn’s future?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: You would not be. Song and Groome are probably the two that fit that label the best and they both have extreme (if quite dissimilar) risk profiles. I talk a lot about Shawaryn in the last episode of TQD (well sort of), but there probably just isn't QUITE enough stuff there to be a consistent high-end pen option in that park in the AL East.

Big Structural Brades (Laundry room): If Henry and Bloom were to tear it down, where would you see the farm system ranking in the aftermath?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: So I'm guessing it's bottom fiveish, although there is enough interesting depth to keep it from the bottom-bottom. I don't know how much they actually get for Betts, probably beat the Machado deal by some, because it's a full year and he's like a half-tier up from Machado as a player, so maybe a top 50 and a top 100 guy, plus two names that would slot in the back of their top ten or next ten? That probably scrapes them out of the bottom five and closer to a normal "bad" system, I don't know how much more they can move for significant prospects though, especially If these are mostly cost-cutting moves.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): With Bobby Dalbec’s emergence, do you see Chavis moving back to 2b to provide an avenue for Dalbec to start in Boston? Simply put, is his bat good enough for force the Red Sox to find a home for him in the lineup? Thanks.

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Emergence might be a *bit* strong, and as I note in the write-up, their profiles overlap a bit. He might get a clean shot on the sustainably successful Red Sox, as I don't know if they will be in the market for a veteran stopgap for 1B/DH, but beyond that he will have to really prove it against major league stuff. It seems likely both will get a chance to prove they can do it in 2020 though.

anthonyevanm (NC): Noticing other sites are more bearish on Groome than the BP team, to the tune of having him as a 4 rather than a 6. Why the discrepancy? Or am I misunderstanding OFP?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: We generally don't all get together to discuss our own site's work product, so that is probably why. Anyway we've always been high on Groome, and the stuff looked most of the way back from TJ when I saw him on rehab. That 60 comes with a high risk factor given the injuries and lack of a pro track record, and as I say in the list intro our OFP is a 75th percentile outcome for something like a three-year peak. On some level we are just measuring different things and that's fine. As always, the write-ups are more important than a single number, whether an overall grade or team ranking.

Timothy (Los Angeles): Is Thad Ward actually good? Or just good enough to make this teams bare bones Top 10?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: A little of both? The addition of the cutter helped the profile, and I'll admit Forest had to talk me into him a bit after I was thoroughly unimpressed with the profile post-draft in the Penn in 2018, but guys change, and Forest had the looks to convince me he's a better bet to be a major league contributor now. It's still not really an impact arm and in a better system he'd maybe scrape the end of the top ten but would be more likely a next ten arm. He's not all that different from the run of arms in the Orioles Next Ten as one comp.

Yuri (Israel): Great Red Sox list. It's obvious Craig wasn't involved much, you can tell by how good it is. Anyway, what is Antoni Flores's ultimate upside?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Another TQD topic, episode 3 or 4 I think? I was talking with a scout about him and I said he looked like a 45 with upside in June and a straight two in September. I'm guessing the general tone of the reports on him will be far worse than ours, and I might be holding onto one look too long, but I think there's a shot he's an average regular somewhere down the line.

Jorge (Miami): The majority of the IFA guys you have on the list are relatively low bonus signings. Does Boston not have big bonus signings as a rule? Or have they just not panned out?

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: So it's easy to forget that the Red Sox got punished for IFA violations a few years back which did limit their ability to sign guys some, at least the types that would be breakout list guys by now. They had Simon Muzziotti for one example, declared a FA on them, and he will be on the Phillies list this year. They also dealt with the tragic death of Daniel Flores, so there are reasons beyond IFA variance that they have fewer big bonus IFA names on it.

Mike (Baltimore): I've been offered Jay Groome a bunch of times in my dynasty league but have been passing to this point on account of him sucking.

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: I mean, I wouldn't buy him in a fantasy league outside of a buy-low scenario until he shows upon healthy for a bit, but also I don't give a shit about fantasy stuff when I make these lists.

Dusty (Colorado): If the Red Sox get back Wander Javier in the Mookie Betts trade, everyone on this list shifts down 1. Sorry, I guess I didn't have a question.

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Neither did too many others Dusty, which seems about right for this system. Yankees on Friday is our first really fun and good list at least. And it will be free to read for all.

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat: Another chat in the books, now to wait for significant Red Sox Futures Guide edits to come in. See you Friday.