Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat

Chat: Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday November 04, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat.

This chat will be to discuss the Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Oh you mean this (points to Orioles prospect list) I just like the duck. I think it's cool

Yuri (Israel): I noticed the Orioles chat is scheduled for today, then the Red Sox chat. Does this mean the chats going forward will be team list specific instead of writer specific? I guess what I'm asking is, will the prospect experts be chatting going forward instead of Craig, your resident expert on blueberries and pies and stuff no one cares about?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: I'll be chatting day of for each team list as long as there is stuff in the queue yes.

Joe (Hunt Valley): Jose Fernandez was 1-14 in the 2011 draft, pitched 2012 in A-ball, then went right to the Show. Grayson Rodriguez was 1-11 in the 2018 draft, pitched 2019 in A-ball, and won’t. For Orioles fandom, is Jose Fernandez his 99th percentile, or maybe only his 90-95th percentile? Curious how far Fernandez was ahead of Rodriguez from a scouting perspective?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Fernandez was immediately a top ten prospect after his first pro season. Rodriguez won't be quite that high. There was more complete stuff with an advanced feel that Rodriguez doesn't have yet, which is fine, 95% of good prep arms don't at 19. That gives you an idea of the percentile outcome too. And evem Fernandez smashed what his median projection would have been pre-2013.

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): You guys are by far the highest of anyone I’ve seen on McKenna (typically 15-20 range) and Grenier (borderline top 30), am I missing something in their potential? Especially with guys like Hays and Akin left off the top 10.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: As always, I can't speak to other list products (honestly wasn't even aware of any other national Orioles product, although I guess more places are doing rolling rankings now). Anyway, I know McKenna didn't hit as much as you'd like in Double-A, but our staff looks showed a broad base of tools, including sneaky pop and solid CF defense. I don't think you can just scout the stat line there. Grenier's glove is a carrying tool and if he hits even a little bit that's a second division regular at the six. Prefer that to Akin's reliever risk and Hays...well, I didn't know what to do with Hays and said as much in the blurb, but he's never hit above Double-A for any sustained period.

jfl19 (BJMB): What sort of prospect package would Baltimore need to give up to get Garrett Cooper?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: This is several words longer than "Baby shoes for sale, never worn," but not less tragic. I'd just start Mountcastle. I'd imagine the actual answer is a high variance guy in the next ten, since that's what the Marlins seem to be targeting, but not also something the Orioles really have.

Dan (Bethesda): I've been reading positive things about how the Orioles rebuild is going but their third best prospect is still a 1B. They seemingly have nothing substantial left to sell. So this rebuild seems like its going to be very draft and development heavy from here on. How soon can this team realistically compete for division titles with what they have?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Yeah, we talk about this on Three Quarters Delivery this week. The successful rebuilds have either had more to sell (Phillies), a better present young core when the tank started (Astros) or both. This will be mostly a draft and development rebuild (as will be a lot of these, since there are fewer buyers and more really really bad teams). The division doesn't look to be getting any weaker either, so it might be a good long while without some developmental fortune and a fair bit of cash to supplement when the time comes.

Ben (Ca): Thanks for the chat. I always appreciate these. What are scouts saying about JC Encarnacion? His stat line seems to have gone significantly backwards despite spending all year repeating the SALL.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: The short answer here is the bat never developed once he got to full season ball. It happens.

tzimmes (concord,nc): Will Rutschman be on the big league roster by April 25th ?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: 2021, maybe. I don't see a huge reason to rush him given the large gap in responsibilities between amateur catcher (even one as advanced defensively as Rutschman) and MLB one.

Person not related to Toby Welk (Earth): Hello! What do you think of D3 star Toby Welk? Is he just a feel good story riding an unsustainable BABIP, or is it possible Sig Mejdal found a diamond in the rough?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: He was an easy pick for Low Minors Sleeper, which means we like him a lot given the pedestrian amateur profile. He's more athletic than your average small college corner bat, and there's real feel to hit there. I comp'd him to a more athletic Josh Satin, but he will have to prove it at every level.

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): Which players appear to have benefitted the most from the new player development system brought in by Mike Elias?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: So there's usually a year or so lag for major organizational changes with a new GM (Elias is just bringing in his own PD and scouting staff now), so I don't think you can really pin, say, Grayson Rodriguez's breakout on new PD techniques. There's just going to be too much noise here. I suppose actually letting him throw a cutter is a step in the right direction though.

The Oriole Report (Baltimore, MD): Which players appear to have benefitted the most from the new player development system brought in by Mike Elias?

bpalee (DC): So, looking back at Mountcastle's 2019, an .871 OPS is certainly good, but maybe not great? There were a lot of people talking about service time manipulation as the reason for holding him at AAA, but is it possible that the numbers say he wasn't quite ready?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: There's an argument to let him get his licks in now in low stakes end-of-the-season scenarios so you can start to see what if any adjustments you need to make against major league arms. Also there's the benefit of giving the fans watching an endless parade of dingers from Gleyber Torres et. al. something to hang their hat on. But sure, you could make an argument he didn't force the issue. (You could also make an argument that by May 2020 the games will be low stakes again anyway).

Boxy (BJMB): Hey Guys. Massive O's fan here. Thanks for doing this chat. Where would you rank the O's farm system right now?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: It feels roughly middle-of-the-pack for me. It's a good balance of decent depth overall and some impact talent at the top, but not enough of either to really stand out yet.

Ellis (The Bay): What's the word on Jean Carmona, has his profile completely stalled out in low-A?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Yeah, there just wasn't much there when I saw Aberdeen. He's still quite young, but he was rough in the field and the bat speed was fringy. He's filled out some in the lower half too but still struggled to drive the ball.

Lars (Laramie): My understanding is that the Orioles are thought to lag behind other organizations in their prospect development. Do you try to reflect that in your grades, or are the grades organization-independent? That is, we might expect Orioles prospects to more often underform their OFP, and Dodgers prospects (for example) to more often outperform their OFP? Thanks!

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: So we are aware of that obviously (especially with Orioles pitching prospects), but it's also going to be a whole new PD system next year so is that even still true. Insitutionally we are organization-agnostic because prospects might get traded, your slider guru might get poached by another team, etc. But if you want to take a macro view as a reader and take that stuff into account yourself, it's not an awful idea. But player development is so volatile I don't know how well it works on any single prospect.

Dusty (Colorado): The Orioles are lacking a true generational prospect talent. They should trade for Wander Javier.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: I appreciate the effort to make this Orioles relevant in the Orioles chat.

Kyle Stowers (Aberdeen): How close was I to making the Top 10?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Seeing as Stowers didn't make the next ten, not all that close. There's some underlying stuff in the profile to like, but the swing is extremely Stanford and is going to need a lot of work. The quality of contact just wasn't there in my looks, and not for strictly post-draft fatigue reasons.

Haddy (MN): I traded Buster Posey straight up to acquire Michael Bauman for my dynasty team. Do you think I should be in the market for other future Aces, or am I set with Bauman?

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: You can always do with more Baumann.

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Chat: Thanks for the O's questions. Solid queue. We'll hit the Red Sox on Wednesday. Not as good a system, but also feels like more to talk about there.