Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday November 01, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and co-host of Three-Quarters Delivery, a prospect-focused podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am here to answer all your pressing questions about Wade LeBlanc's free agency

Mike (Albany): Gun to your head, Florial or Volpe?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yankees list goes up on a week from today, but I can spoil this to say they were within a spot of each other.

Jon (Westchester): Who do you figure the Mets protect in the rule v draft? Gimenez, Szapucki, Ali Sanchez and Blake Taylor a good guess?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The first two are the logical ones, even given Szapucki's health woes. They have the space to add a bunch more if they want but third catcher and lefty pop-up velo reliever are reasonable bets. Jordan Humphreys is an interesting decision. And I'd add Harol over some of the backend 40 arms they are currently carrying.

Jon (Warshington): Where does Wade LeBlanc go and for how much?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Very important question, Jon. My head says he is probably looking at an NRI given the pitching market and how much FA has squeezed lower end vets. My heart says 1/4 to the Mets plus incentives

Ron (Texarkana): Different MiLB leagues are known to favor hitters/pitchers (PCL/IL), but are there some MiLB leagues that tend to be more in sync with actual future MLB production?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Even if you found a league that almost exactly matched the range of run environments in MLB, you'd still have to come up with an MLE for adjusting performance to MLB level and I've yet to see a consistently good public one honestly.

Jon (Warshington): What are your thoughts on Diego Cartaya? Is he a good use of a minors roster spot in a league where 120 minor leaguers are owned?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would almost never roster a complex league catcher

Jordan (South Dakota): I'm a Mariners fan. I have a friend that is a Nationals fan. Seeing his team not just make it to the playoffs and the World Series, but to win it all, has truly crushed my soul. Should I just pick a new favorite team? Should I quit baseball altogether? Also I made the playoffs for the first time in four seasons this past year in a league that I started. WOMP WOMP.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Baseball fandom is about the journey not the destination, but as my good friend Meg Rowley says about Mariners fandom, you have to "like to feel a little bit sad." The destination never changes.

Phil (Boston): Any argument to be made for Rutschman not going #2 overall in a FYPD if Vaughn is taken?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. I could argue for Abrams or maybe even Greene here based on the high rate of catcher attrition. I'm not going to make that argument though, as I really like Rutschman (hot take, obviously).

Gary (Ny): Which Mets prospects have all star upside ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Mauricio, Alvarez if it all works out. Maaaaaybe Allan.

Yuri (Israel): Is everyone at BP as sick of Craig’s Childish Bambino gimmick as everyone else? We get it. You came up with a meh nickname. Anyway, any deep sleeper targets for dynasty league pitching on your mind?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have been sick of Craig long before you, buddy. I'm gonna set deep sleeper at arbitrary "rosters 200+ prospects," and then throw out Roansy Contreras, Seth Johnson, and Sean Hjelle.

cooldude (Mpls): So Royce Lewis had a lousy year but a terrific AFL. Did he redeem himself? How different is his projected future value today than it was this time last year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Upside/OFP hasn't really changed, but reasonable floor/FV is down, and risk is up. None of the reports we got from staff looks in the AFL suggest the underlying issues with the swing are fixed yet.

James (San Diego): Mets-specific prospect question. Do we see Kevin Smith in the majors in 2020? And is it wrong of me to root extra hard for Smith so that I can see Roth and others on twitter constantly reference the infamous Kevin Smith "10 years in.." tweet?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is extremely good for Andy Money's brand. Given the Mets lack of starting depth, and the health risks in the rotation, it's certainly possible.

easterbrook (ontario canada): good day Jeff!!!!!! Im in a scoresheet league where we can keep 5 rookies as keepers outside if 14 mlb players. Having Adley Rutschman,Emerson Hancock, Wander Franco,and Kristan Robinson im torn between Drew Waters and Miguel Amays as the 5 th?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Amaya has grown on me year over year, but given that catchers are weird and given Waters offensive upside, I'd feel pretty comfortable going with the outfield bat.

Not Evan (Not Cleveland): Who do you prefer of Ronaldo Hernandez and Taylor Walls in the TBA system? One had a down year, the other had an up year. It seems like Walls has a lot of MI in his way, though, and Hernandez has a clear path to playing time if he can stay behind the plate.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ronaldo by a fair bit.

Rusty Montana (Billings): Do you have thoughts on George Valera (or should we wait until the Cleveland list happens for this question)? He had a "down" year, but was so young and still walked a ton. It's hard to scout the stat line. A buy low opportunity in fantasy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If someone is selling Valera, I'd be buying. There's a larger discussion on him on this week's TINO which I am editing this afternoon, btw.

Not Evan (Not Cleveland): What do you know about the Indians' Brayan Rocchio? He started lifting the ball with Mahoning Valley this summer, but the avg took a dip.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Spring saw him and liked the overall swing, approach, and hand-eye, so the raw tools are all there. I wouldn't worry too much about his batting average given the aggressive assignment. He's also one of the better defenders in the minors at 18 so there's a lot to like here.

Jon (Warshington): Jasson Dominguez is getting so much buzz and I'm worried that he is more Kevin Maitan than . Am I just an anxious person or are there legitimate concerns?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean, look we ranked Maitan Top 101 off signing and got burned. We weren't the only ones. It was pretty obvious there were issues as soon as he came stateside and Uncle Jack saw him the Appy. We will probably do it again with Dominguez and check back in Pulaski next summer.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Have to get back to editing podcasts folks, but our lists kick off Monday and I will have team-specific chats 1 PM every day a list gos up. See you Monday for the O's