Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday October 25, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and co-host of Three-Quarters Delivery, BP's Prospect Podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Today's tea is a blend of Rooibos and chai, man do lists really start in a week.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): Does Yelich winning the Hank Aaron award mean anything when it comes to winning the NL MVP?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know that there is a ton of correlation here. I think the narratives generally favor Bellinger, but I imagine it will be close.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): I heard a Steve stone interview where he said Cole has the same percentage chance of being a white Sox as he(Steve stone) does to play in the nba. Could this have any reason with how much they like cease kopech and reynaldo? Do you think any of those guys likely become more than an sp3?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It has way more to do with Jerry Reinsdorf's ownership philosophy. I think Lopez pretty much is what he is and might fit better in the pen anyway. Kopech has more upside but we will have to see how he comes back from TJ.

sportsguy21792 (Madison, WI): There is no way for Bryant to win his grievance with the Cubs, right? Something that has always been done and not legislated in the bargaining agreement. If Boras weren't his agent it would have been a nothing issue. Why did it take 4 years to hear the complaint?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If the Cubs thought they could actually hold a guy down just for service time they'd have said it out loud. All the CBA sets is service time rules for FA. It's taken this long because both sides (but especially MLB) are terrified of a one-shot precedent here.

Marc (Mainland): Do you think Brodie makes any effort to rebuild the farm this offseason? or is it just going to get worse?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I assume they will keep pushing in, although perhaps not as hard as the Cano or Stroman deal.

Jon (Warshington): Who are some of the best targets in the back half of a first year player draft this offseason? Guys like Adley, Witt, Vaughn obviously off the board. Is this a year I should sit tight or try to trade up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This class feels fairly top heavy, but the backend guy most likely to get 101 consideration is Braden Shewmake. Greg Jones is more interesting from a fantasy perspective than a real baseball one, but I'd trade up for a top guy if you can.

Doug (New Jersey): Does the outlook on a prospect like Andres Gimenez hinge wildly on what ball MLB will be using? Would seem to me a guy like him or even Luis Guillorme could succeed drastically more with the juiced baseballs. Do you like Gimenez as a good regular (2-3 WAR guy) if the balls get de-juiced?

Jeffrey Paternostro: To an extent, but a lot of Andres Gimenez's value is tied up in being an above-average defensive shortstop (I guess that is also true of Guillorme, but he doesn't have the same quick twitch at the plate). The juiced ball also raises the offensive bar generally keep in mind. I've generally tried to project these guys in a vacuum and 2-3 wins has been the likely projection for Gimenez for a bit.

Matt (NY): Do either JD Davis or Dom Smith have enough value to be the centerpiece in deal for a just-ok controllable starter? (kyle freeland, reynaldo lopez, daniel mengden, etc)

Jeffrey Paternostro: Davis more likely than Dom, since he has more "positional flexibility" and a longer track record of MLB success. The Mets also had to trade for Davis because they don't have that guy in the system. Granted they don't really have a backend starter either, but those are plentiful on the market.

Max (NY): Feels like if the Mets can get Wheeler for 3-4 years for 15ish per, they should probably just do that, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yep. I *think* he gets more than that, but maybe not with a QO attached. He also might just take the QO. He's the third or fourth best starter on the market, but the gap between the top two and him is bigger than the gap between him and like Jake Odorizzi,

John (Tampa): I am in a dynasty league with salaries and prospects are at a premium. I have Max Scherzer but have been offered Garrett Hampson from one team or Malcom Nunez from another. Should I trade my superstar for one of these turds because he costs a high amount of pretend dollars or should I just keep my superstar so that my team is successful and relevant?

Jeffrey Paternostro: In that kind of league if you wouldn't do it as the Nats I wouldn't do it in fantasy. Nats don't hang up immediately because they assume you are gonna name three actually good guys in addition.

Jon (Warshington): Do you care about George Kirby? Should I care about George Kirby? What should I like about George Kirby, other than his last name?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's a polished college arm with a plus fastball and some projectable secondaries. Sometimes these guys turn into plus starters, sometimes they are like Braden Shipley. Time will tell.

Vic (Baltimore): Which player should I take with my 1st round pick? Bregman, Bellinger, Freeman, or Arenado. I think Bregman or Bellinger due to their dual elig.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd take Bregman.

Ryan (Mo): long question, sorry. I can keep Soto or Acuna in the 6th or 7th round. They move up a spot each year moving forward. Who do you see having the most immediate and next 5 year potential? I can also keep the following players in any of these spots where they also move up a round each year. Two 8th round spots, a 4, 3, and 2nd round. Y Alvarez, K Hiura, F Tatis, V Guerrero, S Bieber. What rounds would you put them in? Thinking Tatis and Vlad in the 8th, Bieber in the 4th, Hiura 3rd and Alavarez 2nd. Itā€™s a 16 team keeper. Thank you

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think you can really go wrong. Soto might be a little more consistent year to year while Acuńa might hit higher highs. I guess if it's an OBP league I'd favor Soto, scoresheet I might prefer Acuńa. Beyond that, you are better off asking Craig for the more granular fantasy stuff.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): Who is available out of the pen today for Washington's relief? If Suzuki gets on with no outs in a close game does it make sense to pinch run for him since yan Gomes exists? I don't like him on base slowing what trea Eaton or robles could do. Or is that too much of a small ball thought of mine and likely burns michael A Taylor's availability? Thanks for the chats chief!

Jeffrey Paternostro: With the day off I assume everyone but Corbin, who I'd hang back since at worst you are gonna be up 2-1 for Game 4. Pinch running leverage really only comes into play late in games when one additional run is a huge WPA swing, but in that instance, sure.

brad14 (NJ): What kind of season do you expect from Hays once he is called up? .260 25HR reasonable?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maaaaaaan. The Orioles are our first list and I wild struggled with ranking Hays. I don't think like 5 hit/ 6 pop is reasonable based on recent returns.

Yuri (Israel): I do appreciate that Craig's chats aren't usually on a Friday. It's much smoother sliding into a weekend with a Jeff chat than with one of Craig's terrible chats. Anyway, who do you think is the Mets most under the radar prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We'll slide into the weekend with a Mets prospect question. It's funny I was discussing recently who you would be broken up if the Mets traded this offseason off the farm, and while I don't expect them to necessarily make good value deals, there's no prospect that would really break my heart. Well, other than Harol. Anyway, he's not the answer, it's probably like Jordan Ventura or something.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Next Friday is our last chat before prospect lists. Good luck to us all.