Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday October 21, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is Baseball Prospectus' Lead Prospect Writer and co-host of Three-Quarters Delivery, a prospect-focused podcast that is part of the Baseball Prospectus Podcast Network.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Today's tea is white and green Trader Joe's blend. It's functional.

Danny (NY): Monster AFL for Gimenez. It's interesting contrast to last season- he had a great MiLB season, increased value, but had awful AFL, bringing that value back down a bit. Now, it seems like the opposite. What is your take on this, and on Gimenez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can't speak for others, but I almost never move a guy off AFL performance unless he's missed a lot of time or there's an actual skill change we see. I did get better reports on the swing at the AFL this year, but I don't think it counterweights his 2019 all that much. Much like I didn't worry all that much about his 2018 AFL. Dudes are often gassed and the level of competition is widely variant.

planetearth1love (Kansas City MO ): In your opinion will any of these guys start the year in mlb and what kind of playing time do you see for them? Nico Horner, Kyle Tucker, Gavin Lux, AJ Puk, Dustin May. Thank you

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would guess May and Lux are the most likely. Tucker has a shot, but he might have a better one with a different org. Hoerner is the least likely here, as he could still use some consolidation time in the upper minors, and was more of a break glass in case of emergency option this past Summer. Puk I could see either (I'd start him from Day one), but I think the A's will try and get the year back at least.

someguynamedkenn (Central NJ): Who would you hire to be the next Mets manager? Can you choose one of the known candidates and possibly a wild card if you had another candidate in mind?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So of the announced second round of interviews (Girardi, Bogar, Beltran, Perez) I think Girardi makes the most sense for the team as currently comprised. It also wins the back pages for a few days, which is always a consideration for the Mets. I don't know that they will pay him, or that he will pick that job over others he's interviewed for. The earliest and most consistent heat has been around Beltran though, and he checks all of the above boxes, plus would likely cost less. Reading between the lines, Jeff Wilpon seems to favor Eduardo Perez, who I like personally, but have no idea how he works as a major league manager. Although that is true of everyone they talked to other than Girardi.

Ted leitner toupee (San diego): With cj abrams , Xavier, Urias and Gabriel,arias how do you see that shaking out position wise.

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's more of a 2023 problem. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Edwards ends up in the OF long term though.

Tom (Athens): Who are a couple guys you’re shorting next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I assume this means relative to recent performance, in which case this is very tough to decide without knowing the shape of the baseball (literally). But if you want one, I love Yordan to death but could see him having to make some adjustments much like Bellinger had to.

Quincy (Rochester): Edwin diaz’s underlying numbers were not entirely hateful. Would you attribute his season to statistical noise,injury, or whitsonitis?

Jeffrey Paternostro: 15% regression, 20% injury, 35% new baseball, 10% tipping pitches, 10% noise, 10% The Metsssss

Chino5 (Somers, CT): Whose future is brighter: Brendan Rodgers the baseball player or Brendan Rodgers the Leicester City gaffer?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gaffer short term, shortstop long term. I think Rodgers has a short window where his shit works, although both are going to have to make adjustments to the top level.

Jack (Brickhouse): Cubs looking at an interesting offseason. From an organizational depth perspective isn’t it likely that contreras is the one to go? With caratini and Amaya it would seem like the one place they wouldn’t have a black hole

Jeffrey Paternostro: I suppose, but I also wouldn't be inclined to trade one of my good players for an unknown future (And Amaya is a year or two away), at this point in the competitive cycle.

bob (philly): Can Spencer Howard become the next Aaron Nola----is the upside comparable in your mind? Thx

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's more of a stuff over command guy than Nola is, but I could see that kind of performance as an upside comp, yes. I think he will also be similarly volatile in the majors.

Susan (Hawaii): Thoughts on the milb contraction talk?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We will have something longer on it this week, but Craig described it as a "false choice" on our podcast and that's basically where I am. It's dying at the altar of short-term revenue neutrality.

sportsguy21792 (madison): What do you see Milw doing if Grandal is out of their price range? He deserves a large multiyear deal but hard to see the Brewers being able to get in the bidding. Maybe just try to resign Moustakas and add a lower tier FA catcher to a shorter deal?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Given their infield, I'd prioritize Grandal over Moose in the short term, and worry about the out years later. I don't know if Grandal does that much better this offseason honestly, and Milwaukee could certainly be in at the 50-60 million range.

bob (pa): I think Kingery took a nice step forward last year----and I think there's a lot more yet to come-----do you see some breakout potential with him, or do you think his upside is more limited than what I believe it could be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hey, here's a good example of "it might depend on the baseballs." The funny thing is his 2019 was very much not the prospect profile, but the basic outcome (roughly average hitter, good defense at a few spots) matches pretty well. I do think he could be more of a .280 hitter at his peak, which might bring a fair bit of extra dingers, but I feel like his more of a 3-4 win player with average offensive numbers and that's fine.

Jim gentile (Brooklyn): Kody hoese someone to believe in?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure, although he may get a little lost in the shuffle this year in a deep Dodgers system

someguynamedkenn (Central NJ): Promoat Extend Traid: Yusmeiro Petit, Gabriel Ynoa, Carlos Gomez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Promoat: Ynoa, Extend: Petit Traid: Gomez

Jeffrey Paternostro: Short queue this week, but that's fine since I have somehow been convinced to watch the Arsenal game with a friend, since Wednesday didn't annoy me enough on Friday. I'll be back in my normal spot later this week. Until then, bug Crake.