Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday October 11, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is Baseball Prospectus' Lead Prospect Writer and the co-host of Three-Quarters Delivery, a new prospect-focused podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Today's tea is chai that is now kind of cold.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): Just looking at stats and an end of year bump for luis patino has his command and breaking stuff improved enough to put him in the group of sp's who could possibly be sp1s or is his size and 2ndaries still holding his upside below ace potential

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if there is any pitching prospect I would throw ace potential on currently, but I'm stingy in that respect. I'd have him maybe just outside the top tier of prospect arms behind Gore/Mize/Luzardo/May

Quincy (Ames): Spencer Howard likely to break camp with the Phils? Tinstapp or someone to get excited about?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He could actually use a little consolidation time in the upper minors, and they are gonna hold him back for the service time anyway. But yes, read Steve's eyewitness from this week and then get excited.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Kevin Newman had a nice seemingly underrated year. Cole Tucker seems like he’s the future at short. Does Newman move to 2b or does he have a lock on ss at this point. And do you see more upside or is this as good as it get with him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I didn't think he'd be quite this good, and the extra pop he got from the ball might not stick. I'd let Tucker win the job if he can, as he's a better defender there as well.

Billy mccool (Indiana): Francisco Alvarez - the bat looks pretty exciting. Think he can stay at catcher? How’s the glove and does it look like the weight could be manageable

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe. The defensive skills are solid enough for his age/experience, but the frame is gonna be the issue there if there is one in the medium term.

easterbrook (ontario canada): Thanks for the chat, Do you think Sixto Sanchez and Matt Manning will be up in 2020. Will they be no 1 type or fall into a more 2-3 type. thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd expect both to debut at some point, but probably not until the second half or at least post-Super-2. Sixto has the better shot at a top-of-the-rotation outcome, while Manning is more of the number three starter type.

Nick (Jersey): Who will be the most Remembering Some Guys guy on the 2019 Mets in like 20 years

Jeffrey Paternostro: Justin Wilson

Jerms (Thunder Bay): Is Connor Wong legit? Does he have enough bat to play a position other than catcher?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We've had a lot of discussions about Wong recently. There are concerns about the approach at the plate more than the glove sticking.

Tillo (Chicago): Is it too early to wonder if CJ Abrams should've been picked before Bobby Witt Jr?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably too early to switch positions on them, but I also wasn't really a huge fan of Witt pre-draft.

Yuri (Israel): Hey Jeff, very happy to see you and not Craig on the chat docket today. Craig's chats suck. Anyway, who are your picks for the LCS?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I did not cover myself in glory picking the Division Series for the record.

Cards in 6
Astros in 6

Bueno (Boise): Who has the higher ceiling between Hunter Bishop and Brennen Davis? and who has the better chance of getting to that ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Bishop has the louder tools, Davis is probably the safer bat going forward.

Bueno (Boise): Who has the higher ceiling between Hunter Bishop and Brennen Davis? and who has the better chance of getting to that ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Bishop has the louder tools, Davis is probably the safer bat going forward.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Obviously Game 5 wasn't Dave Roberts' finest hour, but should he really lose his job? For me, the larger body of work is much more important that a handful of innings, even if they're in the post season.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The larger body of work also includes a bunch of similarly baffling playoff game management. I think there are some games you can't come back from, and it showed a weird disconnect with the strengths of his team. You want your manager to put his players in positions to succeed and Roberts has repeatedly failed to do that in big spots. Obviously they've said he's returning, but I also wouldn't have had a problem if they moved on.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): What do you think Carter keiboom's 2020 looks like; AB's, positional split, can he crack 3B if rendon goes else where?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They should probably just hand him the second base job. He could probably handle third if necessary, but it's not really an ideal left side infield profile.

Mithu (Kingston): Who do you prefer between Jeferson Espinal and Wilderd Patino?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably Patino but this will likely change a bunch and maybe even before I finalize the Dbacks list.

Jon (Warshington ): What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario and Mark Vientos? Top 150 guys next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So Canario is actually only six months younger than Vientos, which is interesting. It's serious pop, but hit tool questions and a corner profile. Now a lot of that applies to Vientos as well, but there's a full-season track record here. I think both are a bit outside of the 150, but that's functionally not that different from being inside the Top 150, or the Top 101 really.

Jon (Warshington ): What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario and Mark Vientos? Top 150 guys next year?

Brandon (MO): Trent Grisham a solid regular given playing time next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Let's call that like a 65th percentile outcome for next season. I still have some questions about the bat long term.

Race Bannon (Marrakech): Thanks for chatting, JP. St. Louis sent four fairly nondescript pitchers to the AFL and they've combined for a gaudy 47-to-4 K/BB ratio over 36 innings (1.50 ERA). Will any of them ever contribute meaningfully at the MLB level? (I have heard good stuff about Whitley, who did dominate in AA and AAA this year. But a 27th rounder?)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've heard good things about Elledge, but generally speaking I wish they didn't keep AFL stats at all.

bob (philly): Can Nico Hoerner make an impact for the Cubs next year-----and what do you think his ceiling might be? Also, do you expect a bounce back year from Hoskins or do you think he still has some serious problems going forward at the plate? Seems like the league may have caught up with his weaknesses, and now its up to him to adjust and respond-----in your opinion, can he or will he be able to do it? Thx.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think they should probably keep him as break glass in case of emergency shortstop for the first half of the year. Upside is a plus regular in the middle infield. I think Hoskins will be fine long term, but it's a tough profile when you don't hit .260 with 30+ bombs. He will have a few seasons like that, but I imagine the performance will be up and down some given the swing and miss issues.

Mike (Milwaukee): Can Antoine Kelly stay a starter if so what's his ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's tough to bet on a prep arm to start generally, let alone one that needs that kind of a bump to his secondaries.

andrewfrance (Deepest darkest Peru ): Who is the modern day Ben Oglivie?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Carlos Gonzalez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Check out Five and Dive and There is No Offseason in the BP Podcast Network today, and I will be back next week although we may be moving the day/time around due to Cardiff/Wednesday.