Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Tyler Oringer

Chat: Tyler Oringer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday September 23, 2019 8:00 PM ET chat session with Tyler Oringer.

Tyler Oringer is a member of the BP Prospect team who spent much of the summer seeing the Cape Cod League.

Tyler Oringer: Hey everyone! Back for chat #2. Cape Cod Baseball League, big leagues, prospects, fantasy, etc. Ask away...

Katy Dunn's Farts (Bike Shop): Who are your top five bats, top five arms on Cape?

Tyler Oringer: Interesting name, Katy. Arms: 1. Carmen Mlodzinski 2. Cole Wilcox 3. Joe Boyle, 4. Jacob Palish, 5. Ian Bedell / Parker Scott | Bats: 1. Nick Gonzales 2. Daniel Cabrera 3. Austin Wells 4. Braiden Ward 5. Zach DeLoach... There were a few guys everyone loved who I did not get eyes on, but these guys listed had some of the better tools that I saw on the Cape.

Katy Dunn's Farts (Bike Shop): Who is a Cape prospect who you think underrated? Overrated?

Tyler Oringer: Underrated: OF Braiden Ward, 80 speed and complete leadoff potential as a center fielder at best, and left fielder at worst. Reminds me of Dee Gordon in terms of approach and obviously on the basepaths. LHP Jared Shuster, best lefty changeup on Cape - elite tunneling and a really good gameplan against both sides of the plate.

Overrated: I may get slack for this, but C Austin Wells and LHP Jake Eder. I really liked him, but think both 2B Nick Gonales and OF Daniel Cabrera have a bit more potential. Wells has some holes in his swing - it could get a bit long and receiving skills were very inconsistent. I think Wells will be very solid, but not the 7x All-Star he's projected to be. Eder has good stuff, but some serious command issues with his breaking ball and a bit inconsistent to the plate.

Shooty Babbitt (Oaktown, CA): Shed Long (hot!) or Isan Diaz (not!) for future? And how much do these ~150 ABs change your view on them?

Tyler Oringer: I like both of them a lot. The ~150 ABs has made me like Long more and for Diaz, I just think he needs to see a full season's worth of pitching to adjust. It's a powerful, smooth and aggressive swing - and he's going to be very good. This isn't a Lewis Brinson situation at all. And how could you not love Shed Long? I think that swing - though a little quirky - has 15 HR potential. While I expect him to be a .270s hitter, he's got speed, versatility, and discipline. Sounds like a leadoff hitter on the Mariners to me.

bob (philly): lDo you see any similarities between Kevin Cron and Pete Alonzo? I know he's blocked by Walker and maybe he gets moved for that reason, but I think he has a chance to be an impactful bat wherever he plays-----but what are your thoughts on Cron?

Tyler Oringer: Kevin Cron reminds me of none other than C.J. Lame answer, but it's a very similar profile. Cron lacks the discipline and lift Alonso gets on that swing. Kevin could be C.J., but I personally wouldn't project THAT much higher. Would stick with Walker for sure at the moment if I am ARZ.

bob (pa): What are your thoughts on Tommy Edman?-------I like his bat (switch hitter) and his speed, and also his position versatility-----he's done a really nice job for the Cards and I think he's made a pretty strong case for a starting spot next year. Thx.

Tyler Oringer: Agree with you, bob. Why wouldn't he be a starter for them? Could throw him anywhere and he's very smart in all facets. I expect that OBP to rise next season. He has that play-with-the-Cardinals-his-whole-career vibe going...

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Assuming Maddon gets canned, who do you see as possible replacements next year?

Tyler Oringer: Joe Girardi. If Mets don't hire him and he's looking for a job - it's Girardi all the way. He played a majority of his career there and is probably the best and most experienced guy on the market right now. Managers are starting to lose value in some sense, but Girardi would benefit any team he goes to.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Who do you think will have the better bat in their prime, Bo Bichette or Keston Hiura?

Tyler Oringer: Hiura, but it's close. Would rather have Bichette overall, but Hiura will be a plus-plus two or three hitters for years to come. Not saying Bichette won't be a plus-plus leadoff guy, but Hiura's bat is wayyyyy too advanced.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Could you rank these 2B: Biggio, Hoerner, Chavis, Isan Diaz, Shed Long, Solak, Dubon, Edman. Any you especially like?

Tyler Oringer: Like Biggio, Hoerner, Chavis, Edman, Long and Diaz. Big fan of Biggio and Hoerner. I really like Long's overall profile, but admit that he could work out that swing a tad more. Love Chavis' hit and game power more than most, but not the glove or anything else for that matter.

Katy Dunn's Farts (Bike Shop): Where do you see Nicky Gonzalez going in next year's draft? Mlodzinski? How about other top Cape guys?

Tyler Oringer: Nick Gonzales should go in the mid-late first round. Will he? I don't think so - perhaps early second. I think Mlodzinski deserves the same treatment, but has had injuries in the past. Cole Wilcox has top-15 potential for sure too. Austin Wells and Andrew Abbott should also sneak in the top two rounds. Meant to mention Abbott before, that kid is legit.

Katy Dunn's Farts (Bike Shop): Who had stand out tools on Cape? FB? Breaking ball? Hit/pwr/arm/field, etc? Thanks!

Tyler Oringer: FB: Joe Boyle, Cole Wilcox, Carmen Mlodzinski BR: Connor Pellerin, Joe Boyle CH: Jared Shuster, Oscar Caravajal | Hit: Nick Gonzales. Power: Niko Kavadas, Hunter Goodman, TJ Collett (I like his offensive profile more than most). Run: Braiden Ward. Arm: Keaton Rice (catcher). Field: Anthony Serviedo (tough call on that).

Ace (Tom Ace): Can Marcus Semien perform at 85-90% of his 2019 production in 2020? I really enjoyed what he did this year. It made me feel very happy for him and me.

Tyler Oringer: Great question. I'd knock it back to 75-80% if that even means anything. I think he'll be an All-Star next season, but I don't expect 120 runs and 32 home runs. Semien is a really good player, but I think he will hover around a DRC+ of 115 for future seasons not 137(!!). The DRC+ and WARP are bananas this year - and it does make sense, but expect a return to kinda normalcy next season.

Tyler Oringer: Was a fairly light queue tonight, but awesome questions. Look forward to chatting again! Peace out.