Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday September 20, 2019 11:00 AM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is Baseball Prospectus' Lead Prospect Writer and co-host of Three-Quarters Delivery, Baseball Prospectus' forthcoming Prospect Podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Today's tea is Yorkshire Gold in honor of finally being able to go to a New York Owls Meetup this weekend. It's hot this week because it's suddenly November in Connecticut or something.

Vic (Baltimore): What's your take on G Hampson going forward? His post All Star break #s are what I was expected over 500 or 600 ABs all year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the K-rate is still higher than you'd like (and this was always a bit of a risk given the amount of moving parts in his setup and swing). I think he will have to make further adjustments for that split to be sustainable, but it's about what I would have pegged him for myself.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): Minnesota has a few interesting sp prospects. Is brusdar ready to be a starter next year? And is jhoan Duran a potential sp2 candidate or is that aiming too high

Jeffrey Paternostro: On Brusdar: Probably sometime in 2020, but I might want to stretch him out some more in Triple-A first. He still hasn't thrown more than 102 innings in a season, or spent much time at any level. Some consolidation might be in order. On Duran: Keanan thought no. 2 starter was in play, but there's going to be command questions given the delivery here that might end up limiting the upside.

Vic (Baltimore): I want to avoid too many low minor prospect picks in the future. At the same time, everyone wants to pick a Pete Alonso in 2020. Any notable corner infielders (I'm set up the middle) who might get their 1st and 500th AB in 2020 and may give 60% of Pete's production?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the problem is most of those guys good enough to mention here get service time manipulated to a certain extent. So you could I suppose bet on a potential swing change dude (Aquino or Gresham), but that takes about as much speculation as your low minors dude. So the closest Alonso analog might be Seth Beer, and Ke'Bryan Hayes might be a buy low swing change option. God speed.

Mike (Albany): Have the Pirates always been this bad at all levels of player evaluation? I mean between the Cole trade and the Archer trade, to say nothing of other misadventures, they're, uh, not putting their best foot forward. Did they just accidentally stumble into those good years with Cutch?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Their player dev system worked with a certain class of arm for a bit, but they didn't catch up with the league moving away from two-seamers down and were a bit too rigid generally. They actually have done okay with bats recently, but functionally they won't spend to spackle the holes, so you can't miss on two deals like that.

Daniel (VA): Lux or Aquino. Who has the better career?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Give me Lux by a fair margin. More complete player.

Sebastian (NYC): How would you rank Patino, Pearson, and Sixto based on upside and floor? Do you see any of them having the potential to be a #1?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Upside: Sixto, Pearson, Patiño. Last two are closer than first two
Floor: Pearson, Patiño, Sixto.

Weirdly I'd take Patiño over Pearson and I think he won't be far off Sixto, because I think there likely outcomes favor him.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Craig Kimbrel's tenure as a Cub is reminding me of the Mel Rojas days.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eh, I think he will be fine next year with a regular Spring. Or at least fine enough. He's still missing bats. But relievers do burn hot and fast and nine years is a very long run for a high-end pen arm.

John (CIN): Iâ€™ve picked up on some quiet Jose Garcia (CIN) hype. I think the FSL masked how good he really was. What do you think about him? Candidate to pop?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He started to pop late in the season, based on reports from Keanan and Scott in the FSL. I wouldn't be shocked if he sneaks onto the 101.

beringstorm (Tacoma): I have one last roster move to add a speculative prospect. Who is your top two from the following: T. Larnach, G. Valera, L. Garcia (Was), S. Baz, K. Muller, and X. Edwards.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Assuming a somewhat standard league (i.e. steals are valuable) I'd go Edwards and Larnach. You could make a case for Valera on upside over Larnach if you like. Depends on how speculative you want to be.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Who would you rather have, Dylan Cease or Brusdar Graterol? Brusdar's stuff is FILTHY and he's around the plate. Cease is consistently wild but is ranked higher in most places. I get the bullpen worry for Graterol but his control is so much better than Cease. Gun to the head, but then you knock the gun from the guy's hand and point it at him and then tell him... Brusdar or Cease.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Cease was up at midseason so he didn't get ranked, and Brusdar had the arm issue around then, but we only had them seven spots apart coming into the season, and I imagine that minor gap is more or less the same now. I have concerns about Cease's command long term, but he's flashed enough that boy if he ever does figure it out. And if not, he'd be as good a reliever as Graterol, who again, hasn't thrown over 102 innings in a season yet and has an elbow scar. It's huge variance on both, but for some reason the command stuff worries me slightly less than the durability stuff in this case. Maybe it's a "White Sox usually figure these guys out" thing.

Johns (Atlantis): Who -- or what -- is Tommy Edman?

Jeffrey Paternostro: #MortBlood

Jake (Rhode Island): Hey Jeffrey! What do you make of Lucas Sims and Tyler Mahle? Sims's 33% K rate jumps out at me, and I like Mahle's 18% K-BB. But the results just haven't shown. In a dynasty, would you ditch either/both of them for a risky pitching prospect, like Albert Abreu or Trevor Rogers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the problem for both has always been dingers, and 2019 baseballs have been particularly unkind. I'd be more inclined to hold on Mahle (1) because I have always liked him and (2) he's by far the more likely starter. If I were to dump one of them I miiiiiiiiight due it for Abreu but not for Rogers. I'd want a bit safer arm before I felt great about pulling the trigger. Either of those might just get you this version of Sims or Mahle in three years.

bob (philly): Three guys of interest for me and my roster for next year in a keeper league---Edman, Van Meter and Cron----can you give me your brief thoughts on each, their abilities and potential ceilings? I especially like what Edman has done this year and his SB potential, switch hitting with a little pop, and his position versatility---but maybe you have a different view of him. Thx.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Edman is the most interesting fantasy option I think, due to the power/speed combo. The approach is aggressive, but he can hit enough and play enough positions well to get the PA you will want even if the line regresses a bit next year. Van Meter feels a bit like the good bench player version of Edman (which granted might be Edman next year). Cron (I assume Kevin) actually would have been a good pull for the Pete Alonso question earlier, but I'm just never confident that profile will hit major league breaking stuff until it does (see every argument Jarrett and I had over Pete Alonso last year).

Pete Vuckovich (Milwaukee): Now that Trent Grisham has realized his potential, what grades would you give his hit & power tools?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if he's actually all the way there yet, but the projection now is probably bumped to like 45 H/55 P which is a sight better than it was coming into the year.

bob (pa): Hey Jeff, Caleb Smith was really "outstanding" before he got hurt and looked like a potential top of the rotation caliber pitcher, but he's been hit pretty hard after coming back from the injury-- -----what are your thoughts about Smith for next year and going forward? I guess there's no way to know for sure, but do you think the league maybe caught up to him or do you think the injury might have had a lingering effect on his stuff and performance during the second half?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I suspect he's always going to have home run issues against righties given the profile, but the rest is tough to suss out for the reasons you lay out.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Short queue this week which gives me some time to write up Yankees guys before heading down to the city. Official prediction is a 2-2 draw with Mitro and Fletcher exchanging braces.