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Chat: Jonah Keri

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday December 14, 2005 8:00 PM ET chat session with Jonah Keri.


Jonah Keri is an author of Baseball Prospectus.

Jonah Keri: Welcome to BP Chat, or as we like to call it, "an excuse to get away from the non-stop, stultifying pressure that is book season." The signing of Carl Everett has everyone here in Seattle talking potential dynasty, so let's get started...

Fishbone (St. Louis, MO): Your best guess: What does the Cardinals outfield look like next year? I'm a big fan of John Rodriguez, but I can't see him getting 500 ABs from LaRussa. Will we more than likely see a platoon of him and Taguchi in left, with Gibbons flanking Edmonds in RF? Also, provide some reassurance that Jacque Jones won't wearing the birds on the bat in 2006.

Jonah Keri: It's a lock that Walt Jocketty will make at least one OF acquisition before Opening Day. Jacque Jones wouldn't be a bad choice, assuming the money and years furnished aren't overwhelming. If used as part of a strict platoon, Jones projects as something like an 800-825 OPS guy, solid batting average, low walks, lots of doubles. He's also a very good defender in LF, with the added bonus of being a viable fill-in in CF if Edmonds misses significant time. If the Cards could get Jones for something like 2/$9M, it'd be a good snag.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Jocketty do something bigger, though. Every time the Cards have gone into one of these quiet spells in the past, it seems they suddenly make a move for a very good player, somehow giving up little in return. The Mulder trade was a notable exception.

singy111 (Miami, FL): With many middle infield prospects in the Dodgers' system, do you feel that Furcal may only spend 1 year in LA? With a Delgado-like deal (Furcal is only 4 million this year, with the balance owed in 07-08) do you feel this is just a year rental? Even though he would have a high amount owed for the last 2 years, for such a short commitment it may be worth it for a team that could afford it (especially with the high probability that the Dodgers would eat some of what was owed)

Jonah Keri: That would actually make a lot of sense not only from the salary perspective, but also in that Izturis won't play more than half the year in '06 and may struggle when he does come back, but should theoretically be fine in '07 and beyond. The key will be finding a team with the will to absorb the last two years of his contract after this year. Of course there's always Omar Minaya.

doughk (DC): What should the Oriole's do - placate Tejada and overpay for Millwood/Zito/Weaver (ugh) or blow everything up and trade Tejada, Lopez^2 and Mora and hope to contend in 2007/2008? They have a number of promising outfield and "pitching" prospects (Markakis, Reimold, Fiorentino, Majewski, Loewen, Penn, Olson). Seems like the Angels and their abundance of infield prospects would be a good fit.

Jonah Keri: Why don't more teams look for trades rather than deciding that throwing a mint at a player is the only way to go? The A's and White Sox have both done very well for themselves in picking up Bradley, Perez and Vazquez at a discount, and neither team has to sweat Years 3 through 6 of a giant, long-term contract.

That rant aside, the O's have been a limbo team for years now. If I were them I'd look to trade Lopez and Mora, sure. But they're never going to get full value for someone as good as Tejada. Trade their B+ players (rather than their A players) for Triple-A guys on the cusp of low-service time qualioty major leaguers, keep their younger guys. If everything breaks right they contend with Tejada quickly. If not, you haven't hurt your chances for '07 and beyond.

Steven Colbert (Truthville): Is Kenny Williams a great GM? Or the Greatest GM?

Jonah Keri: He's #4 on the Threatdown and rising fast. Very unlikely to overtake Bears, however.

The Colbert Report is the best show on TV right now.

lentzner (Fremont): Theoretically, would it be better to have two hitters that both hit 20 HR a year, or one that hits 30 HR and one that hits 10 HR, or are they equivalent (Assuming all other things equal)?

Jonah Keri: I'd take the 30 HR player. There are very few true, elite players, which is why they cost so much. On the other hand, there's an abundance of guys somewhere between replacement level and league average (the equiovalent of a 10-HR guy) who can be had for next to nothing. Take the star performers--you can always dig up a 10-homer guy somewhere.

Brian Sabean (SF): Will I regret signing Matt Morris?

Jonah Keri: No doubt about it--that's the biggest slam dunk of the off-season. Morris' strikeout rate has declined for 4 straight seasons. PECOTA may start weeping when it spits out Morris' three-year projection.

Makes you wonder what would have happened if the Giants hadn't been so eager to sacrifice first-round draft picks (on purpose) while signing drek like Michael Tucker. A few well-placed picks and they may have had the young talent to avoid throwing $27 million down the drain for a mediocrity like Morris.

RCCook (Dallas TX): Did the Rangers do well in picking up Vicente Padilla from the Phillies?

Jonah Keri: Unless the PTBNL is Mark Teixeira, sure, why not? Padilla will probably make $4-$5 million in arbitration at the most. Yes the Phillies were making noise about non-tendering him, but the Rangers may have had to give him a three-year deal if Padilla was exposed to the open market, as opposed to giving up a fringe prospect like Ricardo Rodriguez for him. Padilla's got some injury concerns, but in a crazy pitching market like this one this is an excellent one-year gamble.

I didn't think it was possible, but after this deal and the grand larceny that was the Soriano-Wilkerson/Sledge/Galarraga deal, Jon Daniels may actually outperform my already high expectations for him.

Scot (NY): Jonah! I miss the Q&A series you did a while back - any chance you'll restart them any time soon?

Jonah Keri: Speaking of Jon Daniels, he was one of my favorite Q&As and also one of the most recent ones I've done for BP, despite the interview occurring 10 months ago.

Anyway Scot, yes I definitely am planning on getting back into the swing with Q&As. This has been a very busy year for me both BP-wise and in other respects. But being away from Q&As for a while has made me realize how much I enjoy doing them. One of my favorite elements to doing them was talking to rising executives before they ascended to their roles as GMs. I was fortunate enough to talk to Ned Colletti, Tim Purpura and Daniels before they got their current jobs. I hope to talk to more people of that ilk in the new year, plus hopefully some former players and other folks.

Luca Brasi (With the fishes): If you were to make a "SABR" fantasy baseball league, what stats would you use?

Jonah Keri: Actually Scot from NY founded a great fantasy league about 5 years ago that I've been in every year since that I really enjoy. It's simple, yet nuanced.

Offense: AB, BB, OBP, SLG
Pitching: Outs, Ks, ERA, WHIP

Two counting stats and two rate stats for each. You can draft Mariano Rivera and win the pitching rate stats (while punting the counting stats) and try to sweep the 80 points of offense (we're in a 20-team mixed league). But that tack is risky, and a balanced approach has tended to work better.

Anyway, I highly recommend that format. We may even have a few vacancies in 2006. No money involved, just bragging rights.

QuietStorm (Bellingham, WA): The Everett signing isn't *quite* going to bring a dynasty to town. What'll it take for the Mariners to compete, and what's the likely timeframe? And, on that note, does the Everett signing help the M's in any significant fashion?

Jonah Keri: As my friend (and Mariners expert) Dave Cameron put it, if Everett is truly bad, he won't last enough at-bats to hurt the team all that much. But it's also hard to see Everett suddenly pulling a great season out of his dinosaur-repelling hat. Even .260/.330/.460 would be a surprise for him at his age, in that park.

I do think the M's have more good, young talent than people give them credit for, though. Jose Lopez and Jeremy Reed could be plus players for the next several years, and they're young and under Mariner control for a while. Felix Hernandez, to me, is the most exciting player in the majors.

If Bavasi can make a few strategic moves (I LOVED the Jojhima deal), maybe send Betancourt to the walk fairy for a little help, this team could surprise, sooner than you might think.

markbhey (STL): Best rookie catcher in 2006 - Navarro or McCann or other?

Jonah Keri: I have a love for Brian McCann that borders on unnatural. A .210 Isolated Slugging at Myrtle Beach for a 20-year-old catching prospect is off the charts, given how hard it is to hit for power there (I use this as an excuse to explain my weak golf game when I'm in Myrtle, but no one listens).

McCann won't turn 22 until February, he's already shown he can hold his own against major league pitching, he's Braves property through 2011, and John Schuerholz made a fantastic little signing in Todd Pratt to boot. A McCann-Pratt semi-platoon will be the best bang for the buck at any position, for any team, in all of MLB in 2006.

dangor (New York): What's your take on this year's hall of fame candidates? I would vote for Blyleven, Sutter and Gossage. I think that relievers get a raw deal, especially ones from the old days that would pitch multiple innings. I was quite surprised to see Jaffe's vote for Will Clark. I think we have a better chance of seeing Elvis.

Jonah Keri: I've always supported Gossage and Blyleven (especially Gossage). Sutter's borderline to me, but I wouldn't be offended if got in. I still think players like Alan Trammell and Bobby Grich should get more consideration. How about Albert Belle? .295/.369/.564 career averages. He's Dick Allen all over again, and I know a lot of smarft folks who swear that Dick Allen's a Hall of Famer.

InBillyWeTrust (Oakland, CA): Any thoughts on the Milton Bradley deal? Looks to me like Colletti got taken in his first deal.

Jonah Keri: Bradley and Antonio Perez for Andre Ethier...

Ethier's numbers last year look pretty nice. But he was 23 and hitting in the Texas League and didn't even slug .500. Meanwhile Bradley-Kotsay-Payton is the defensive outfield in baseball. I don't think Payton's offense will repeat itself in '06, but I see Bradley's production landing somewhere between his monster 2003 and his very solid 2005. Straight up I already love the trade for Oakland. Throw in Antonio Perez, who's just 26, cheap, decent bat and versatile, and I think the A's just added 5-7 wins to their team for a good-not-great outfield prospect.

More trades, fewer free agent singings. Why...don't...more...teams...try this?

J (Chicago): Can you persuade Sheehan to start a "Free Hee Seop Choi" movement? Seriously, why no love for him from any of the teams that employs/employed him?

Jonah Keri: BP had a "Free Choi" movement going like 4 years ago. Choi's burial by various teams has already eclipsed Durazoian levels.

The biggest surprise of the Ethier-Bradley deal to me was how Beane didn't get Choi thrown in for one of their 812 fringe starting pitcher candidates. Is till think the guy would hit if you just gave him 400 PA vs. RHP and left him alone.

Joel (Washington, DC): Jonah, Dave Littlefield has declared his four top young pitchers --- Duke, Perez, Maholm, and Gorzellany --- untouchable, leaving him with no quality assets to trade for the impact bat that the Pirates so desperately need. What do you think of this approach? Is there anything the Pirates can do at this point to avoid another winter of settling for mediocre leftovers at third base and the outfield?

Jonah Keri: They could stop doing things like trading one of the few other chits they had--a cheap, league-average SP in Dave Williams--for an overpriced, subpar first baseman like Sean Casey. The Pirates now have a bunch of 1B/corner types who won't be impact players on the next good Bucs team--Casey, Craig Wilson, Brad Eldred. That's what I'd be dangling to upgrade at the spots you mentioned.

Why on Earth did they ever trade Armis Ramirez anyway?

R.J. (D.C.): Do you think the White Sox gave up too much in the Vazquez deal? I know Chris Young is no certainty, but I'd say it's better to have choices in CF next year than not. Plus, does a team with five solid starters need Vazquez anyway?

Jonah Keri: I always like to replace "a team with X solid starters" with the equation X-2. So if the Sox believed they had 5 solid starters, injury, attrition and the general unpredictability of pitchers would dictate they had 3. So to me adding a quality arm like Vazquez makes sense.

Young's a pretty good prospect on a team that may have problems with no-power Podsednik, the unpredictable Dye and the unproven (but talented) Brian Anderson out there. But I still think the Sox did well for themselves, especially with Arizona tossing in a reported $3 million to boot.

By the way, Nate Silver points out that Vazquez gives up a lot of homers (even in Montreal he'd be susceptible) and he's now going to a place where the ball really flies. So there's certainly no consensus on this deal within BP's halls, anyway.

pjacques (Montréal, QC): Hello Jonah. You got mixed results with your 'Players to Watch' predictions last season - Danny Haren, Josh Beckett and Jorge Cantu having good seasons, while D'Angelo Jimenez, Kazuo Matsui, Hee Seop Choi, Justin Morneau, Jeremy Reed and Heath Bell not faring as well as expected. Any names that pop in your mind right now for potential breakout seasons in 2006? (Go Expos!)

Jonah Keri: One way to pick breakout players is to focus on all the guys you like who didn't pan out a year earlier. I like Morneau more now as a stock than I did a year ago, given his tough '05. Same goes for Reed. Buying Jimenez now would cost nothing, and plenty of teams have shaky infield situations--I'm not saying he'll definitely bounce back, but why not try and find out?

Also very bullish on Brian McCann, Brad Wilkerson (shakes off injuries, goes to hitter's haven), Austin Kearns, Scott Olsen, Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, Jeremy Bonderman, Anthony Reyes and Brandon McCarthy.

ssimon (Pelham, NY): Jonah: Best sports book that we've probably never heard of (Non-BP division, please)?

Jonah Keri: Dollar Sign On The Muscle by Kevin Kerrane

The Last Coach (it's football, but it's terrific) by Allen Barra

Lords of the Realm by John Helyar

People may have heard of #1 and #3, but if you haven't read them yet, they're great.

Since this is my Chat I get to sneak in a BP division entry anyway, and it's a lock that most of you have never heard of it:

Baseball Between The Numbers. 29 chapters looking at seminal baseball questions ranging from "Is Barry Bonds Better Than Babe Ruth?" to "Is Alex Rodriguez Overpaid?" to "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's S*** Work In The Playoffs?" We haven't talked much about this book because it's been in the works for 6 months now and we wanted to focus on the Web site and the BP annual. But having edited this thing I can tell you that it rocks, and features terrific writing and research from many of BP's brightest minds.

It comes out March 6 and it freaking rocks. (We'll be talking more about it as pub date gets closer, but wanted to get that out there...)

Sean (Raleigh, NC): I saw something today about the Javier Vasquez trade that I haven't heard before: "The White Sox will actually control Vazquez beyond 2007. When he invoked the trade demand, Vazquez made himself ineligible for free agency for three years." Is this part of the CBA or his contract, and what do you think the Sox are planning to do with him next winter?

Jonah Keri: Tom Gorman has written a series of excellent articles for BP that detail many of MLB's most arcane rules, contract rules included. He recently discussed the Vazquez situation in an article on the site: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4614

Basically, as Tom said in a recent message:

"If you invoke your trade demand and it goes through you can't be a FA for three years. Vazquez has two years left on his deal, so after the third deal the team can take him to arbitration and he has to accept. Of course, they can chose NOT to take him to arb, if they don't want him anymore. In a sense he becomes a 5+ arb eligible player with no FA rights. The only difference is that his deadline dates are a little different (they have to make the decision no Vazquez very early in the calendar)."

Race Bannon (Montevideo): Thanks for the chat, J.K.! Darkhorse for the pennant in each league? I say Twins & the Cubs (overpaid badly, but already added 3 valuable upgrades).

Jonah Keri: Brewers and A's.

Bush becomes the missing starter the Brewers needed to support Sheets and Davis while Fielder and Weeks come on faster than people expect.

Bradley trade adds needed offense to A's lineup and Beane either trades surplus SP for another hitter or a Farnsworth-type shutdown reliever to go with Street and Duchscherer.

AlexCarnevale (New York, NY): What player evaluation in the 2006 Baseball Prospectus will surprise us?

Jonah Keri: Walter Johnson, SP, Nationals
Throws R Bats R

Jim Bowden says he likes The Big Train's live arm, even if the rest of him isn't quite so alive. A lover of players with tools, Bowden is said to be an admirer of Johnson's work with machinery while working on an oilfield in Southern California in his pre-MLB days. The most popular player in DC baseball history (narrowly edging out Gary Bennett), insiders say Johnson's return could mean millions at the gate for the moribund franchise, providing the last needed lift in the Nats' stadium drive.

Breakout 0% Attrition 100%

Amos (New York): Do you think trading Andy Marte signifies that Chipper Jones is going to be at third base until he has to do it in a wheelchair? Or does it mean they take Wilson Betemit seriously after the power he showed in the bigs? Or does it just mean the Red Sox held out wisely for a big chip and the Braves wanted Renteria that badly? Thanks. Enjoyed your work all season.

Jonah Keri: I think the Braves see Renteria as a bounceback candidate and were willing to buy him for 3/$24M or so that shakes out in the wash after all the money changed sides. It's possible that Renteria may pan out (I could see a good 2006, but I have my doubts later on). The big issue to me, though is how the Braves didn't get more in trade for Marte. Yes they had Chipper at 3B (they're not moving him unless he's a complete disaster there, you're right) and yes they have an OF loaded with good, young talent, as well as Andruw. But just because you're flush doesn't mean you should start lighting cigars with $100 bills.

I still think the Braves have an excellent shot at repeating this year, thought that's more about their excellent catching situation, a full year of Jorge Sosa in the rotation and surprise contributions from the two Arizona RP they got for Estrada than because of Renteria. This team is so good at developing and recognizing talent that they can afford to make a mistake. And given John Schuerholz's track record, I could very well be proven wrong anyway.

BT (MD): Does every MLB team have a "President"? What exactly do they do, that I can't name one of them outside of the recently newsworthy Larry Lucchino?

Jonah Keri: We're seeing more front office by committees as it were, as teams recognize the complexity involved in running enterprises worth hundreds of millions of dollars. In the same way a CEO can't be expected to run Apple or Google by himself, so too would be unreasonable to expect a GM to handle the lion's share of the burden in running a ballclub. Theo Epstein's going to play a very active role in Boston alongside Cherington and Hoyer. Tampa's front office has a veritable army of smart people at work for them, from the team president level to the people calling out picks at the Rule 5 draft.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next step was for teams to hire something resembling the NFL's "capologists". MLB doesn't have a payroll cap in the same way that the NFL and NBA do. But teams could probably benefit from having a designated bean counter to assist the talent evaluation personnel.

sharajr (St Catharines, Ontario, Canada): I find it deeply frustrating that everyone at your website is hammering the Blue Jays for giving Burnett and Ryan 5 year deals. At least we've acquired some talent. The fact is that NOBODY was going to get Burnett or Ryan for 1 or 2 or even 3 year contracts. So why don't you guys deal with the real situation, quit saying things like "I would NEVER do this" and admit that Ricciardi did the best he could possibly have done, despite the risks. All your righteousness about contracts would not help your fictional teams compete in the AL East. The fact of the matter is, they're a much better team that Boston and the Yankees are going to have to fear now and they did so with a payroll still under 75 million - and they're not done yet. What contract doesn't have risk that involves a premium player?

Jonah Keri: Of all the teams that should be adopting a trade not sign philosophy, the Jays should be right there near the top of the list. We can wag our fingers at the insane tendencies of some American-born athletes who believe it's better to be living in some dishwater dull outpost rather than a top-notch Canadian city (did Steve Francis even know where Vancouver was on the map?). But the bottom line is that bias exists.

So why fight it by exhausting the bulk of your available budget on two risky commodities for that many years? I actually like the Ryan and Burnett deals more than some of my BP colleagues, but even the rosiest projection would question $102 million over 5 years for those two. Could they have outbid the Yankees on Farnsworth for a fraction of the price, made a cheap trade for Dave Williams, packaged Hudson, Batista and a prospect for a legit bat, avoided adding another 1B type in Overbay when the roster was full of them, traded Hillenbrand+ for a SP, paid a lot less to get a Loaiza instead of a Burnett and seen where that would have taken them? Maybe, maybe not (and I'm obviously simplifying things here).

But the bottom line is there are many ways to skin a cat, and the Jays chosethe least efficient of those ways. I'm all for acquiring top-tier talent--but why take such monumental risks?

I blame impatient ownership for this.

Mike (Bloomington, IL): Jonah, I'd love to get your thoughts on David Bush. What do you think his ceiling is? Does moving from Toronto to Miller Park help or hurt him in the long run? Do you believe he's being penciled in for a rotation job this season?

Jonah Keri: I like him a lot, another breakout candidate, albeit a milder one than a Morneau or McCann. If David Bush doesn't improve one iota he's Paul Byrd, and Paul Byrd is apparently worth $21 million.

Doug Melvin is one of my must-haves on the 2006 Q&A list. Heckuva job by him and the entire front office in building this team.

endymion853 (Wi): When you consider Kenny Williams and the White Sox... If you have a chance to win next year, do you trade young talent to win the Series? It seems to be the anti-BP approach. Trade young talent to build your team in order for the short term. With an aging Thome and Konerko around for a while, it seems like the Sox could crash like the Yankees in 2-3 years.

Jonah Keri: First of all, what young talent did the Sox trade to load up for 2006? I'm not that big a Rowand fan (and Thome came with much of his freight paid). Young's OK but he's not a blue chipper. Williams has upgraded his team *without* sacrificing the future by giving up a stud like McCarthy. Yes they'll need to draft and develop well to see sustained success, but you can say that about any team.

And there is no "BP approach". Building a winning team is still what it's all about, and there are a lot of ways to do it. You'd be hard pressed to find such a disparate group of styles as the Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox and White Sox of the last 5 years. They all deserve kudos.

darkhorse (Haltom City, TEX): How good a player is Ian Kinsler and does he win the second base job in 2006?

Jonah Keri: Yes and no.

I think Orlando Hudson is the front-runner for the Texas second base job in 2006. Kinsler will help the team one way or another by season's end, though.

This is my favorite division in the game right now, by the way. Kotchman, McPherson and Santana stepping up, Wilkerson and Padilla fortifying a good team with some impressive, young talent, the A's making more off-season upgrades (and spending more!) than I can remember and King Felix, Reed, Lopez and Jojhima alongside Ichiro, Sexson and a dead cat bounce Beltre in Seattle. Compelling stuff.

Amos (New York): What happens to Corey Patterson now? After all, Jose Guillen turned useful, and it's not like Patterson's overall career is at Chad Hermansen-worthy depths of suck. Will the Cubs set him free? What's best or most likely for him? Thanks.

Jonah Keri: Buy low! When someone becomes a pariah the way Patterson has, what's the harm in bargain shopping for him? Flip a Double-A reliever and a Cat Fancy subscription for him and see what happens. There's no law that says the Yankees can't pick up Patterson and continue to shop for help elsewhere at the same time. If they end up with two useful CF, that's a great problem to have.

Lightning round...

Fishbone (St. Louis, MO): In three years when looking back at the Juan Pierre deal, we will all think that......

Jonah Keri: ...he could have scored a lot more runs if Neifi wasn't hitting behind him.

Tom Fratamico (Burlington, VT): Hey Jonah - What are your thoughts on the rumored CF plan B for the Sox Reed-Clement? Even though Clement had a rough second half, he is a league avearge innings eater at a reasonable price in this market. Reed had a terrible rookie season. It would seem like the Sox should do better for Clement. Assuming you are taking in a fair amount of M's games now, how is Reed's D?

Jonah Keri: Reed posted a .252 EqA in a supposedly terrible year--you need to take Safeco into account rather than just glancing at his raw stats. Meanwhile he posted a season that was roughly league-average defensively according to BP's metrics, and has been rated as above average by some othber sources. This was in his FIRST full season, as a 24-year-old? Do people really expect rookies to perform like Pujols? Reed plays a premium defensive position effectively, he's got a good minor league track record, he's dirt cheap and young.

I actually like Matt Clement and think he'd be a fantastic addition for the Mariners. But if Reed merely follows a normal growth curve, he'll peak around a .280-.290 EqA, which is excellent for a CF. If he takes any kind of significant step up beyond the normal growth curve, we could be talking about a .300 EqA guy with plus defense in center. That's a slam dunk All-Star.

Kimball (Kansas City): Is there any chance the Royals find a taker for Mike Sweeney? Any truth to the rumors that the Angels offered/are offering Kotchman and/or Santana for him, but Baird wanted Brandon Wood as well (I refused to acknowledge that the Angels would make this deal, but a friend insisted it was true)?

Jonah Keri: If Baird turned down a deal like that, I'd be worried about Rany Jazayerli's mental health right about now.

I have to sneak >this in, by the way...

Kenny Williams (Under the radar): Between Jose Contreras and Jon Garland, who should I trade? Can I pair one of them with Juan Uribe to get Miguel Tejada?

Jonah Keri: Both players will never again duplicate their 2005 seasons. I'd guess that garland would have a lot more perceived value, so if I had to trade a SP, it'd be Garland. The Sox should wait and see how their OF/DH situation pans out first, though. There may be no need to trade pitching anyway.

Bruce (LA): Why don't BPers go to games? I seldom hear any of you comment about actually showing up at a ballpark.

Jonah Keri: We go to games all the time. But as non-scouts, trying to make any broad deductions based on seeing a few games in person is a fool's errand, so we don't try to write up any analysis on game outings.

Well, most of us don't anyway...

Jonah Keri: Folks, that's all the time I have for tonight. If you're in the Seattle area this weekend, come on down to Third Place Books in Bothell this Saturday at 6:30 p.m. I'll be signing copies of Mind Game, previewing BP2006, talking all things Mariners and givign a sneak peek at Baseball Between The Numbers (which, once again, rocks). And if you're looking for a holiday gift for a friend or loved one (or want one for yourself), pick up a BP gift subscription. Beats the heck out of tube socks.

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