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Chat: Tyler Oringer

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday September 04, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Tyler Oringer.

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Tyler Oringer is a member of the BP Prospect Team and will be discussing Cape Cod League prospects.

Tyler Oringer: Hey everyone! My name is Tyler Oringer, and I am a member of the BP Prospect Team. I spent my summer on the Cape as the Orleans Firebirds' MLB Scout Liaison and Baseball Operations Assistant. Appreciate the questions and look forward to chatting!

ironcityguys (urban area): What do you see as Adley Rutschman's trip to the Majors? next year- A/AA, ML appearance late in 2021? Also, is there any former catcher you'd compare him to? Does he profile similarly as a hitter to Ted Simmons (switch-hitter)?

Tyler Oringer: I got an interesting comp just now from our very own Jarrett Siedler who's seen him. "Jorge Alfaro but a switch hitter and with a real approach?" Don't hate that at all.

The O's are obviously awful and there's no need to rush him. But if he shows any semblance of what he could be in A next year, a trip to AA should be expected given his advanced approach at this juncture. At the earliest I could see him up in late 2021, but 2022 seems most reasonable for me.

Carl (San Antonio): Tyler, do you know if JP is still in 19th out of 20 teams in his league. Also, I've asked who to get in touch with to take over the TINO podcast but I keep getting ping ponged around.

Tyler Oringer: Ha! I don't know if he would want that second-to-last info to be public. Too late now I guess.

ironcityguys (urban area): Does Willians Astudillo still have a chance at a ML career or did 2019 wipe out his opportunity?

Tyler Oringer: Can’t tell you how thankful I am that I got a Willians Astudillo question. Look, he isn’t someone who should be an everyday player at any of the positions he’s played at. But I’ve always been a fan of the utility player, and though he doesn’t walk, his ability to put the ball in play, along with his ability to play catcher – wouldn’t say catching ability – makes him rosterable. He has a future on a 25-man roster, but not even close to the one people thought after the 2018 season.

Keep in mind the Twins already have two very solid catchers and perhaps the best true UTIL in Marwin Gonzalez. I don't think Astudillo necessarily has a permanent home in Minnesota but he should somewhere else.

scott (queens): Have you seen Matt Allan?

Tyler Oringer: No, unfortunately.

ironcityguys (urban area): Is Sonny Gray's 2019 turn-around predictive of the future? Or is it just one last upward spike in his career?

Tyler Oringer: I wouldn’t say it’s completely sustainable. Gray’s walk rate from last year is exactly the same, but he is way more focused on punching batters out, rather than pitching to contact. His fastball usage, as opposed to his sinker, when ahead has clearly led to better results.

The other thing, Gray was encouraged to use his slider in the zone with the Yankees which obviously didn’t work well. His K% on pitches out of the zone are lightyears ahead of where they were last year and the zip on the slider seems to be there when thrown the way he wants to. And in fairness, that stadium is unlike any other.

Is it totally sustainable, I don’t think so? But I wouldn’t be surprised if he challenged for an All-Star Game next year and was similar but a tick worse in the upcoming years.

ironcityguys (urban area): What changes did Mitch Garver make that allowed him to be a top 50/100 hitter in the Majors this season? Is this level sustainable?

Tyler Oringer: Ah, you must have a thing for Twins catchers. Reallllly like Garver.

That dude has one of more compact swings I've seen this season. It always had that short, sweet potential dating back to last season, but what I've seen is his ability to keep his hands inside the ball and explode his wrists through fastballs and guide his barrel in a way that he simply didn't last season. Also, his discipline at the plate is just different.

Garver kills fastballs and with his quick hands and newfound barrel control - yes, I think this is sustainable.

Vic (Baltimore): Where does Franklin Barreto wind up in 2020? Do you think he deserves an opportunity to accrue 600 ABs?

Tyler Oringer: I'm off the Franklin Barreto train, especially on the A's. There's a crowd with the A's in Seimien, Mateo, Pinder, and even Neuse to clog up time.

He's a definite trade candidate, but if he wants to touch 600 PAs in the 2020 season, it would have to be on a rebuilding team like the Orioles.

Phil (Minnesota): Is this the ironcityguys (urban area) chat or what?

Tyler Oringer: Seriously haha.

Yuri (Israel): Hey Tyler, excited for your chat today. I was sad to see Craig had car problems but also excited to see he wouldn't be chatting so we can stick to baseball. Anyway, who is your biggest breakout prospect on the Cape this year?

Tyler Oringer: Hey Yuri, I do appreciate the not so subtle jab at Craig.

My favorite position player prospect was 2B Nick Gonzales out of New Mexico State. Advanced barrel control, an all fields swing, noticeable loft and a professional approach. Not the best second baseman, but improved mightily throughout the season.

Carmen Mlodzinski was my favorite pitching prospect. 96-97 FB, 93-94 2SM 89-90 CU, already a 50 slider. Looks like a big leaguer and repeats his intimidating delivery so well.

Will H. (Beantown): Seems like there were two groups of players at the Cape, the first being the big prospects that eventually went on to the US Collegiate National Team, and the second that stuck around for the rest of the summer. How big of a gap in talent was there between those who left and those who stayed?

Tyler Oringer: Amazing question.

Yeah, so there was a bit of noticeable void left when those guys left. You had you're Tier 1 players who dipped out early. But guys like Nick Gonzales, Austin Wells, Carmen Mlodinzki, Ian Bedell stayed. All guys with first-round talent. It's an interesting setup, but when its the end of the season and the elite prospects are still there, its verrrry noticeable.

Worst Coach (NY): I seem to always choose the wrong options for my weekly starting lineups. I factor in season-long and recent performance, matchups (including LH/RH pitchers) and whatever else I can think of, but seem to guess wrong more often than any other coaches in my league(s). What is your algorithm for choosing starting hitters and pitchers? Thanks!

Tyler Oringer: Need more self-confidence in that user name, Worst Coach.

As for weekly lineups, you have the guys are shoe-ins every week. But for pitchers, I generally stick with two-start guys thanks to strike out potential. If you have them on your team and they pitch twice, you shouldn't have him on your roster if you don't feel comfortable starting him. A lot of strikeout and win potential there.

As for hitters, stadium influences (Coors, Chase, etc.) and recent history, handedness do it for me. Wouldn't say there is too much of an algorithim, but I play a lot of daily where it's easier to matchup.

Stan (Miami): Lewis Brinson's numbers this year are somehow more đź’© than they were last year. Is there any hope for him at all?

Tyler Oringer: Yeah, I am not a Lewis Brinson fan. He was brought up too early. It's a crazy long swing and max effort.

The guy is a freak athlete, but could see him having just about the same career as Keon Broxton with a year of 20 HR and 30 SB and then not being rosterable thanks to strikeouts.

Steve (PA): We have a rule in our dynasty league that you can't have minor leaguers on your major league roster for 7 days during the season. Do you think it needs to be specified that the all star break counts as during the season?

Tyler Oringer: Hmmmmm. I personally would say that it doesn't count for the sole reason that regular season games are not being played then. Could easily make the argument either way though.

Smith (Your rCards boss): What it do babyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Tyler Oringer: What it do, Mr. Brickner.

Ed (Cranford): Is Lane Thomas a starting OF next year?

Tyler Oringer: Could see it. But I would prefer him as a top-tier fourth OF who gets a lot of ABs in a platoon situation too.

Keith (Talking Fantasy Sports (We)): If a player in the Cape Cod league had the name Corn would he be Corn of the Cape Cod league?

Tyler Oringer: Undoubtedly yes.

ironcityguys (urban area): Are there any players at the upper levels of the Tigers' system that can be impactful on the ML roster in 2020/2021? The AAA roster still has Candelario and Stewart, but there's Joey Morgan, Frank Schwindel (27yo, I know), and Daz Cameron among the hitters. The injured Beau Burrows is the only pitcher I could foresee if I squint hard enough. AA doesn't seem much better. Any hope for Tiger fans?

Tyler Oringer: Good question. Not much to be excited about a Tigers fan unfortunately. Wouldn't mind seeing Schwindel soon. Cameron's past season, was... un-encouraging to say the least.

You got Casey Mize who is legit, but... yeah, not much to look forward to at the moment IMO. Sorry!

Estevan (Florida): Will we ever see the day where minor league teams get upgraded buses with beds? seems like sleep is becoming a more integral part of the sport science aspect, and these kids don't get into hotels 'til 4/5 AM

Tyler Oringer: Who knows man? It's crazy. I know Jeff and Jarrett did something talking about this two years ago at SaberSem.

Paul Sporer (Austin, TX): I'm still bummed that Tommy La Stella's breakout season was cut short by injury. He'd probably be hitting his 35th HR today.

Tyler Oringer: He's actually really good. Always has had an advanced eye and a solid stroke. Hit's the ball hard and was one of those guys who's swing is suited for the juiced ball (as shown by your 35 HR prediction).

Elton (Pacific Northwest): In my primary dynasty league, I've just completed my fourth year of a rebuild and am committed to tanking in 2020 as well. Are there any Cape prospects I should be looking to add? I figure they might fit my timeline of contending by 2023 and beyond (fingers crossed!).

Tyler Oringer: Yes sir.

A few to keep an eye on. 2B Nick Gonzales, C Austin Wells, RHP Carmen Mlodizinski, RHP Cole Wilcox, LHP Andrew Abbott, 1B Spencer Torkleson (who I didn't get to see, but EVERYONE loves him), and more. Hit me up on Twitter and I'd be happy to share my pref list with you!

Haddy (Minnesota): I'm tanking in one of my dynasty leagues and to the loser goes the spoils: I've got the second most FAAB of anyone! So I can add a big impact piece, if one gets dropped. Problem is, today's drops were guys like Harrison Bader and Yonathan Daza. I'm worried my FAAB will go to waste. Should I have just tried to contend instead?

Tyler Oringer: No, I don't think going all out of Yonathan Daza is the move haha.

I'd be curious to know who else is out there. Wouldn't hate taking a risk on a guy like Bader, but the regression this season was real despite his insane speed and athleticism.

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier, what's his upside?

Tyler Oringer: Haven't seen him, but Mr. Smith Brickner knows about him.

"He’s coming back from serious injuries and has exhibited terrible pitch recognition. But the contact is loud and there’s a chance he stays up the middle. Teams tend to be more patient with those guys." - Smith "Wander Javier Enthusiast" Brickner

Dan F (Long Island): Which prospect on the cape most excited you, but isn't getting talked about?

Tyler Oringer: Great question, Dan F.

I could give a few answers here. I really liked centerfielder Braiden Ward, an all fields contact hitter with 80 speed, and tremendous MLB lead-off potential. He got some clout, but not as much as he deserved. Simply a guy who fits a role in the MLB and has the tools and approach to succeed.

Bailey (MD): I recently got knocked out of the playoffs by a better team and fantasy manager than me. What would you do in this situation. A simple "congrats" or would you buy the better man lunch?

Tyler Oringer: A congrats if the person deserved it - and neither if he didn't. I'm petty in fantasy.

Tyler Oringer: Thank you all for great and entertaining questions! If anyone wants to chat baseball, music, movies, etc. hit me up on Twitter. I'll be back soon for another chat, but for now - I think Craig's car is finally fixed.


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