Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

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Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday August 26, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark Barry is a member of the BP Fantasy Team and co-host of There Is No Offseason a dynasty-focused podcast.

Mark Barry: Hello everyone. Thanks for coming. Let's do a chat.

Carl (San Antonio): Are you still in 19th place?

Mark Barry: Hi Carl. I can tell you right now that we are not still in 19th place.

David (LA): A non Gavin Lux related Dodgers question! Any idea what's going on with Yadier Alvarez? I know there were questions about his coachability last year and this season he only pitched in two games in April. Is it a serious injury or more?

Mark Barry: It's easy to say it's just the trials and tribulations of a pitching prospect, but it's also kind of the trials and tribulations of a pitching prospect. Especially one that throws so hard. Finding news on and injury stuff is pretty tough, too. I think he'll be more frustrating than not, but even in a limited sample this season, the strikeouts have been encouraging.

boatman44 (Liverpool): Okay this Dylan Carlson fella , just more Cardinals voodoo magic or legit top 20 fantasy outfielder of the future ? Thanks

Mark Barry: I think he's a terrible combination of both being both super legit and being sprinkled with the voodoo magic...look out.

Joe (Philly): Gonsolin or Lamet for the rest of the season and long term? Thanks!

Mark Barry: Lamet for me. I'd take him even without factoring in Gonsolin's iffy path to starts.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): Homeruns are up. Exit rates are up. More pitchers than ever are throwing 100+ mph. Much of this has been attributed to less drag on the ball. Do you thing this same factor has attributed to the decline of closers who lived on the success of their sinker/slider like Treinen, Edwin Díaz and Jansen? Just seems odd that they all went south so fast.

Mark Barry: That certainly seems plausible, and would probably be an interesting deep dive. I think a lot of it is just the crazy volatility we see in bullpens on a year-to-year basis. Jansen has managed to mostly escape it, but with a slight downtick in stuff, he's susceptible too.

Ron (Wisconsin): Rank the following for dynasty purposes: Shane Baz, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Tarik Skubal, Edward Cabrera

Mark Barry: Skubal, Baz, Duran, Balazovic

brad (NJ): Mark, Is valuing Lance Lynn as a high floor, #2SP with low injury risk fair?

Mark Barry: It's tough to say that with complete certainty, just because we've seen Lynn's lows. I don't think he's any riskier health-wise than anyone else, so somewhere in the SP2-3 range sounds right to me.

Joe (New York): If you take over a dynasty team, how many years of missing the playoffs do you get to lean on the excuse that "we didn't get to draft our team"?

Mark Barry: As many years as it takes.

Honestly, it depends on how much of a mess you inherited, but with the relatively expedited timeline for minor leaguers these days, let's say 3-ish years?

Brice (FL): All else being equal, should more athletes do what Andrew Luck did? As in, retire young, wealthy, and with health still [mostly] in tact.

Mark Barry: I think we get into trouble painting everyone with the same brush. I don't begrudge anyone, especially football players, for calling it a career early, especially with what we know about head injuries. Long answer short, I'm all for people doing whatever they want to do (to an extent).

Yuri (Israel): Thanks for the chat today, Mark. Always love when you do these. I appreciate that you stick to baseball and don't get all self-absorbed and sidetracked. Anyway, 12-team dynasty league question for you. Francisco Lindor or Fernando Tatis Jr going forward? Thanks!

Mark Barry: Oh no. I should've answered this one before doing a football question.

Tatis is gonna be a monster, but I'm a homer, so I'm still rolling with Lindor.

Jordan (South Dakota): A "rebuilding" team in my dynasty league traded Yuli Gurriel straight up for Matt Tabor. This is objectively awful, right? Even if you're rebuilding, it would seem like Gurriel, who he traded amid his recent tear, would have far more value in 2020 and maybe even 2021 than Tabor, a pitcher still in A ball. Why do dynasty owners think "rebuilding" means give every single asset over the age of 30 away for nothing?

Mark Barry: Objectively awful might be a touch strong. I don't know if I would've made that move, but Gurriel is 35 years old, so it's justifiable. Tabor looks interesting.

I do agree that over-30 guys wear scarlet letters in dynasty leagues.

Mike (Houston): In dynasty leagues, isn't it easy to just trade for new old dudes every year using fringe prospects than it is to dedicate years and years to try building up an equally good team of 24 year olds?

Mark Barry: I've actually been talking to Jon Hegglund, my co-owner of the TDGX team, about this. I think there's an interesting case to be made for this strategy. The key is probably scooping up every rookie-ball or Low-A lottery ticket you can.

Trent (Bronx): Isn't the fallacy of dynasty leagues this mentality where teams don't try to win every single season? Seems like everyone wants to build a magical superteam that reels off a decade of unchecked dominance. Shouldn't goal one be to compete in the current/next season, regardless if you do it with 20 year olds or 30 year olds, and then once you're competitive tackle how you're going to prolong it?

Mark Barry: Another great strategy question, and I do agree. It's a cop out to always point to league context and tendencies, but that does still apply. And a lot of it is mentality, as it always seems more rewarding to hit on a bunch of prospects, but you don't get extra points for having the youngest championship team.

cracker73 (Florida): What is the deal with George Valera? Apparently he is not injured, yet he is sitting more often than he is playing. Considering that he missed most of last season with an injury, it seems like the Indians would like him to play as much as possible for his development.

Mark Barry: He's still so young, I'm not really that concerned with trying to ease him into full-season ball (although I would like it if the statline was a little better).

John (LA): Who’s a prospect you want to talk about but haven’t been asked about?

Mark Barry: In doing some TINO research, I'm a little intrigued by Benyamin Bailey for the White Sox. He's an enormous dude that is walking over 21 percent of the time (to 17 percent strikeouts) in the DSL as a 17-year-old. Looooong ways away, but interesting.

Vic (Baltimore): Does Wade Miley's 2019 mean anything for 2020? Or, could he easily return to Wade Miley in 2020?

Mark Barry: Sometimes these guys just get put in a good situation and find a way to turn their careers around. Miley has been pretty good for two years now, he's still only 32 years old and I don't really see any reason to believe he won't be some version of this again next season.

Jonny (Los Angeles): Am I going to regret cutting Heriberto Hernandez in my deep dynasty league? He was immediately picked up by the defending champion.

Mark Barry: That's always the worst.

I mean, you might, but striking out a quarter of the time in the AZL isn't terribly encouraging (even though he's mashing the rest of the time).

David (Bethesda): In my dynasty keep forever league, my hitters are stacked with Soto, Acuna, Acuna, Vlad, Bellinger, Tatis, Harper, Devers, Bichette, Pete Alonso and Story. My pitching sucks though because for years I've built my team based on the industry standard of "bats over arms." My best pitchers are Jake Junis and Chris Bassitt. My hitters are simply too good to trade for pitching upgrades because the best pitchers are all old and the young ones aren't available and so my current staff is too bad to compete. Where do I go from here?

Mark Barry: Unfortunately, pitching counts just as much as hitting. You might have to take a deep breath and move one of your studs for a couple guys that are less than aces. It's nice having all that offensive talent, but if it's not winning, it's time to change some things up. I'd look at the redundancy you have at SS/MI with Story, Tatis and Bichette.

Johnny (PA): Tarik Skubal is en fuego, how do scouts only see him as a SP3-4? Do you see him as having more upside

Mark Barry: Maybe a tiny bit more? But I'm just admittedly scouting the statline, which is incredible.

Dynasty Scout (All over): I'm liking what I'm seeing from a few prospects in the lower minors. Specifically, Misael Urbina, Luis Matos, and Francisco Alvarez. Urbina never strikes out, Matos made the jump to state side competition and Alvarez just keeps hitting well ahead of his age level. Any of these guys stick out to you from a dynasty perspective? Thanks!

Mark Barry: Those guys that walk more than they strike out at lower levels definitely pique my interest, so Urbina is definitely on my radar. Alvarez might be my favorite of that group, though.

Spotted cow (Rockford ): What sp's are you targeting as buy low for bounce back weather old, injured, or Mike foltynewicz?

Mark Barry: I scooped up Folty when he got sent down, thinking it might help him get back on track, and I guess he's been *ok* since coming back up? Jeff Samardzija is boring, but he's been pretty good lately and Pablo Lopez is about to come off the IL, so I'll be trying to nab him everywhere too.

Andy (Indiana): Who are your favorite dynasty buy lows - prospects and those in the minors?

Mark Barry: Jose Ramirez isn't as buy low as he was a month ago, but maybe the injury has scared some people off...go get him. Julio Rodriguez is a guy I'm trying to get everywhere. He's another guy that's not a buy low, but I don't think his stock will be lower for quite some time. For true buy lows, I'm still interested in Yusniel Diaz, despite the *meh* 2019 season, and if anyone is selling Jesus Sanchez stock, I'm buying.

M (Texas): Nick Solak vs. Trent Grisham. Who would you rather have in a roto league for the next few years?

Mark Barry: It's still Grisham, for me, but it's closer than I would've thought, like two weeks ago.

Bailey (MD): I went down a couple spots in the standings in the final week of the regular season. I'm in the playoffs but have a tougher road now. Should I at least be happy that my top prospects are Abiezel Ramirez and Own Miller. Those are future all-stars, righ?

Mark Barry: Uh, yeah sure, those sound like names of players. Good luck in the playoffs!

Haddy (Minnesota): In a keep forever league with no salaries, I traded Yordan Alvarez for Trevor Williams earlier this year. I've been the laughingstock of the league ever since and no one will trade with me now because they all expect to get similar favorable deals. What's been your worst dynasty trade of 2019?

Mark Barry: At least it's not as bad as trading Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields!

We all have those, and it's part of the fun/terribleness of dynasty. This season we thought we made out like bandits getting Wenceel Perez and Jhon Torres for Jorge Soler. Like three years ago I traded Rafael Devers, Jose Berrios, Michael Conforto for Nolan Arenado, which at the time looked like a no-brainer, but has not aged particularly well.

Elton (Pacific Northwest): Thank you guys for all your advice this year. I managed to finish in 10th and have a bye in the consolation bracket where the winner wins half his entry free. This was my goal for the year. Again, THANK YOU.

Mark Barry: Let's GOOOOOOOOOOOO! Next year we're zeroing in on a Top-6 finish, Elton. Let's do this.

Carl (San Antonio): Unless you fell to 20th, congratulations on your team's improvement.

Mark Barry: *<$^ System Failure. Can't process. *!%^)#>>

Mark Barry: That'll do it for today. Thanks to everyone for hanging out. Even you, Carl.