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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday August 16, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and he cares deeply about your dynasty league roster.

Jeffrey Paternostro: its the weekend baby. youknow what that means. its time to drink precisely one honey ginger iced tea and call Craig about your dynasty questions

Jeremiah Jackson (With Hansel - he's so hot right now - like me): I'm having a week - ya dig?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I noticed this and asked around this week. After some back and forth, Me: Is he just the poor man's Jazz? "Might not be poor."

Sean (Boston): Is Jhoan Duran a candidate for the Top 50 next year? What is his ETA to the majors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Top 50 feels a bit heavy, but he will certainly be in the 101 discussion. I'd assume he starts back in the Southern League in 2020 and sets his own timetable from there. I assume when I write his list capsule it will be like "Late 2020."

Abel Archer (Travis AFB): In terms of future ceiling and realistic likelihood of achieving it, who do you like better out of Grayson Rodriguez and Spencer Howard?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Howard is both closer to the majors and has the better present stuff. You could argue Rodriguez has more ceiling, but not significantly so. I think they are going to be fairly close on the 101 when it shakes out.

Sean (Boston): Can Michael Baumann crack the Orioles rotation next year? What is holding them back from giving him a shot in September?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So they have a lot of arms broadly about as ready for a major league look as Baumann. Wells, Kremer, Lowther, Zimmerman. I guess I would rank Kremer slightly higher although he's less likely to start long term, and I weirdly like Wells. But It's going to come down to organizational pref which I'm not privy too, and can barely figure out my own pref here.

Barley (Wisco): Tell me about Luis Santana, the guy traded in the JD Davis deal.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hit-tool driven, stocky second baseman with a noisy swing, but good barrel skills. Tough profile unless he hits .280, since there's really nothing else in the toolbox.

TINO Listener (Santa Fe): Any chance we can get people on TINO who aren't always talking about being bad at Dynasty Baseball? Would be nice to hear from people good at fantasy baseball.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Look, Craig doesn't host anymore so I don't know what more you want.

Dolphin Pilot (Los Angeles): Where will Gavin Lux start when he comes up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would guess mostly second base, depending on the health elsewhere, but the Dodgers love nothing more than moving guys around, so I'd assume you'll see him a few spots.

Tony (Chicagoooo): How do you scout a 16 yo? Is it just looking for tools such as bat speed etc? Or are we also projecting finer points of the game such as sequencing or plate discipline? Is what make Franco so special the combination of all these things at a young age? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm so internet poisoned, it took everything to not just respond "very carefully."

So my general philosophy here, and this applies to low minors or prep amateurs, or anywhere the overall level of competition is miles off MLB, is look for something that doesn't look out of place there. Can be a moment, a swing, a curveball, a throw from the hole, whatever. Look for that and then build off it. Franco is a bit of a freak to be such a complete hitter at such a young age, yes.

CuccumberParty (Phoenix): Did you ever envision Carson Kelly being this good? Since May 4th when he hit his first career home run, he's hitting .293/.400/.630 with a 14.9% walk rate and 17 home runs! Do you think he can maintain this pace?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I did not, probably because he won't be this good forever. But he added more pop and he's hitting the right baseballs to be a 20+ home run dude even if he comes back down to earth.

Yuri (Israel): How do YOU feel about various types of fruits and berries?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm a big fan of the cherry garnish in a Manhattan.

Seth (Walkin' Heyah, NY): So, Ahmed Rosario turnaround: real, or not?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Realish, but heavily BABIP influenced. I think his season line is about right going forward, but wouldn't be shocked if he has a few seasons where he hits .300. He always had the wrists and hand-eye, the approach was just the issue. He will also have some seasons where he hits .260 and flails at sliders and frustrates everyone. Think he's just gonna be a high variance, but talented player.

Stavros Halkias (NY): How many baseball DM groups on twitter are you in?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I got added to my first one last weekend and I am ambivalent honestly

Phil (G'burg): So um... JD Davis is a legitimate dynasty piece now that he's got an every day job, isn't he? The batted ball data is nuts.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The dictionary definition of a better fantasy player than real life player.

smartishpace (Club Charles): Assuming he is available, if you're drafting for the Orioles do you take Emerson Hancock and if not, who?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Making Draft decisions 10 months out is how you end up drafting Seth Beer 1.1

Mike (Bronx): Is Roansy Contreras unfairly lost in the shuffle of NYY pitching prospect? Dude has been completely lights out of late and has a much better arsenal than, say, Luis Gil, who has floated up lists.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe a little, but we've always liked Roansy a bunch and ranked him fairly closely to Gil coming into the year. Imagine that will continue.

Cam (Georgia): Who has a better chance of being an Ace, Pearson or Manning?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Pure ace: Pearson. Much heavier relief risk though.

chad (DE): Who is your biggest personal cheeseball right now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Do you remember those old Sunday NFL ads (I think it was for Bud Light) where they always ranked Al Del Greco as the best football player ever. That's me for personal cheeseballs, but it's Harol Gonzalez.

Ben (Detroit): I just read on FanGraphs this morning that, for fantasy purposes, Tarik Skubal profiles as a SP1/2. He was lumped right in there with Mize and Manning. That's lofty praise. What kind of ceiling do you see here? What he's done across two MiLB levels this year has been nothing short of dominant.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Spring saw Skubal recently and saw more of a brutal multi-inning reliever. Given the injury track record, and lack of a complete arsenal, I think that's probably about right as a median outcome.

Jessica (New York): Do you think the Mets' Francisco Alvarez will get list consideration for dynasty leagues?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I doubt he makes the Dynasty 101 just because of how far away he is and how much Ben and Bret hate catching prospects, but he will be in consideration for our 101 for sure.

Brian (Chi-Town): Ian Happ was basically given up on by the fantasy community in spite of being just 25. He's a switch hitter with multi-position eligibility and a career WRC+ of 111. Were people just too scared off by strikeouts? And if so, why? It's 2019.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would guess it's because the Cubs have made it clear he doesn't have a real path to playing time at the moment. Whether he should or not is a separate debate and he has been starting more lately.

Pete (Bronx): Any reports on Brett Baty? Specifically, any concern about the large number of strikeouts?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ben is seeing him literally next week, mostly because I badgered him about seeing Kingsport before the end of the year because my cars both have 220k miles on them.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Any of these guys look like they could be more than #5s? Peter Lambert, Bryan Abreu, Jose Suarez, Adbert Alzolay, Lewis Thorpe, Logan Webb (GB%!), Joe Palumbo?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I like Lambert, but it's a brutal profile for Coors. Palumbo is the obvious one there to me. Alzolay has upside well past a number 5, but significant reliever risk.

Rerry Jemy (Bawston): Is CJ Cron a good comp for Bobby Dalbec in 3 years or are we looking at a different profile?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Dalbec has more raw and more swing and miss, but yeah, I could see the shape of the production looking about like that if he gets enough of the power into games. Gonna have to work on the dad bod though.

Justin (Cincy): Jeffrey, what happened to Tirso Ornelas this year? He had an aggressive assignment at A+, hit pretty well during April, then fell off after and was eventually sent back to rookie ball. Was there a swing change to unlock more power, injury, anything of note?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think pretty much everyone on staff in Cali saw him and generally came away with the impression that there's good athletic tools and potentially a middle of the order bat here, but he's been a bit overmatched by Cal League arms at times. I'd preach patience here and remind you that development isn't linear, especially for a 19-year-old in Advanced-A. He's had a few nice games since popping back up from his blow in the complex, so I am curious to see if anything has changed. I'm sure we'll see him again soon.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): How soon do the A's call up Luzardo, and what do you expect from him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn't be shocked if he's a roster expansion guy, although I assume the Athletics will keep a fairly tight leash on him even though he hasn't logged a ton of innings this year. Jen saw him recently and he looked like Jesus Luzardo, so I would expect good things.

Eddie (Chicago): So.... there's a new Pedro Martinez and he's a teenage shortstop and HE IS AWESOME. Kid has a .476 and .958 OPS the last 30 days and hasn't even unlocked his in-game power yet. Future top 100 dynasty prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig has had a bee in my ear about him, but let's tap the brakes a tad until he's in full season.

Carl (New York): Is Brett Phillips a decent under the radar, post-hype dart throw? The elite defense should at least give him plate appearances. Is there a Ramon Laureano V2 here?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess he might be worth stashing, but the Royals haven't even really made space to give him a shot yet and he's already 25

TINSTAPP (Boston): PIT SP prospect Cody Bolton is putting together a solid season. Top-10 in the PIT system? Similar profile to other risers (e.g. Cantillo, Baumann)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lefko is a pretty big fan. There's more FB velo than Cantillo, but not as much as Baumann. Better command than Baumann probably. Pitt is a shallower system at the moment too so yeah I could see him sneaking on.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gotta keep it to an hour today to deal with cars and dogs, but I guess we are doing this weekly now, so we'll roll it over to next week.

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