Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jon Hegglund

Chat: Jon Hegglund

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday August 02, 2019 4:00 PM ET chat session with Jon Hegglund.

Jon Hegglund is a staff writer for the Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Team.

Jon Hegglund: Hello fellow baseball enthusiasts! Apparently some baseball things have happened lately. Let us ponder them.

Jerry Seinfeld (New York, NY): What's the deal with Trent Grisham?

Jon Hegglund: Helllllo, Jerry. Grisham's call-up was dealt with expertly by Keanan Lamb and J.P. Breen, but my take is: be very suspicious of AAA breakouts this year. I think Grisham is an exciting player, but he'll need a Cain injury (hardly stretching the imagination, I know) to find regular playing time, and if he does? The speed looks like it will play, but less so if he's low in the order. The plate discipline is nice, but I don't trust the average. Unrelatedly, does anyone have any good ideas for transforming my Nicky Lopez sleeve tattoo into something less embarrassing?

Vic (Baltimore): Do you believe Taylor T will have MLB fantasy value by the end of 2020? Or, could he easily be a Bradley Zimmer and struggle initially?

Jon Hegglund: Vic, get that Bradley Zimmer comp out of your mouth! I think your question is both a Taylor Trammell question and a Manny Margot question. I could easily see Trammell as an early-season call-up, particularly if the Padres want to move on from Margot (and assuming they're OK with Trammell in CF). And of course Trammell could struggle initially; most prospects do. My money is on some late-season 2020 flash, and then he's wildly overdrafted in 2021.

GBSimons (Columbus, IN): Given the D'Backs' acquisition of Seth Beer, is Christian Walker worth acquiring for Eric Hosmer? Similar prices, both can be kept for '20 and '21.

Jon Hegglund: Have you seen the film "Columbus"? It's about your hometown! Good little film; some gorgeous compositions.

Anyway. I'm kind of a Walker skeptic. 28 year-old who started hot and has since been pretty meh (sure, power, but it's everywhere these days). I'm actually coming around to the idea that Hosmer may be a tad *under*rated in fantasy. Steady, boring, but is back to a plus average this year and fills up the R and RBI categories. I think he's a solid CI. And he'll play everyday because he's an 80-grade towel-snapping dudebro and what contending team doesn't need one of those?

slappy123 (NC): I'm in a dynasty/salary cap league (H2H 14 categories). Move like to move a SP (combined with 1 or 2 underperforming guys) before our deadline this Sunday so I can open a few roster spots and cap space. My choices are Pineda, C Smith, Boyd, Keuchel, Matz or Plesac. Can I do without one of these guys, or are they all keepers? thanks

Jon Hegglund: Yeah, I'd sell on Plesac in a hot minute. I think it's not a bad time to get out of the Pineda market as well. If you want to move one of your higher-end arms, I'd shop Keuchel.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Who will have the better offensive career -- Eloy Jimenez or Peter Alonso?

Jon Hegglund: I'm still sticking with Eloy! He's almost two full years younger than Alonso and in time I think he'll be the more complete offensive player. Not to take anything away from Pete, he's also fantastic. Both are going to be fantasy cornerstones for awhile.

The Hawk (Chitown): Dadgum it, is Eloy Jimenez still a 70/60 pick-to-click prospect even with his down season and his 28% K rate? Mercy!

Jon Hegglund: We'll do a double-shot of Eloy. The answer to your question is...

YOU CAN PUTTITONDABOARD..........YES

Hank (A-town): What are your thoughts on Bryce Ball? Do you think he has the potential to become a future top 10 first base prospect?

Jon Hegglund: Cool name. Some low-key nominative determinism there; doesn't lock him into any one sport.

I'm not sure that there *are* 10 first-base prospects, so sure, why not?

bpalee (DC): I've got an interesting deal to swap for Brent Honeywell in a dynasty-type league. Even after this last injury, is he worth taking a shot on? Does his OFP still max out at 70?

Jon Hegglund: OFP 70? Woah, are you reading reports from 2016? He'll enter 2020 having missed two full years. I don't expect him to completely forget how to pitch, but this is a pretty major pause on a promising career. That said, I'd take a shot on him if he were *heavily* discounted, sure.

Nathan (MN): What are the chances Alex Kirilloff ends up being the future starting first baseman for the Twins on the depth chart?

Jon Hegglund: Kirilloff should be fine in a corner outfield spot. I think the Twins might have found their future first baseman in Lewin Diaz.

dzemens (Toledo): Do you think there's any point holding on to a guy like Mike Brosseau in a 16 team dynasty? I like the skill set, and the story (undrafted from Oakland University), but I'm not sure there's a chance for a substantial role there in Tampa with their wealth of infield options.

Jon Hegglund: Brosseau is interesting, but he's on a team where there are like fifteen interesting infielders for three or four spots. My take is: he's fine to hold if you don't see any better options on the horizon. But I wouldn't feel bad about cutting him loose the minute you need his roster spot for someone with more upside. Don't cut him just to cut him. These types of players seem to pop more often lately (but the odds are still against it).

Chesty (New Bern ,NC): Standard one year league with S&h as one category and extra base hits.I probably have to move one with M.Osuna coming off IL. Mike Yaz,Dickerson!(Phil),Alvarez (Hou). Thanks

Jon Hegglund: I'm sorry, the fact that you included the god YORDAN in this list means you need to go stand in a corner and think about what you've done.

OK. Be better. To your question, I have a hard time believing that Yaz is anything spesh. Also, it's always bothered me that the "z" doesn't come until later in the name. It shouldn't be "Mike Yaz," it should be "Mike Yas." YASSSS.

Dickerson is demonstrably a good hitter, but the playing time could get sketchy when Bruce comes back. I'd still probably stick with Dick.

Clint Frazier (Scranton, PA): What is my fantasy outlook for the rest 2019 and 2020? Why does Cashman hate me?

Jon Hegglund: For 2019, you're obviously in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre purgatory barring a slew of OF injuries. In 2020, let's hope that you're not a Yankee. Should you escape from New York and get a starting gig, I like you for a .260/25/80/80-type season.

Does it bother anyone else that exterior shots in "The Office" look nothing like Scranton and everything like...LA? (Yes, I know this is how TV works, dont' @ me)

Matt Damon (Film Actor's Guild): MATT. DAMON.

Jon Hegglund: matt damon, Matt Damon, MATT DAMON!

Matt?

DAMON!!!

Buddy (Peoria, IL): I don't mind the Castellanos trade, but why the hell is Maddon batting him second vs. RHP?

Jon Hegglund: Man, don't ask me to get into the mind of Goofy Uncle Joe. Castellanos doesn't have severe platoon splits and he's not a terrible on-base guy. I'm sure there will be plenty of different lineups to hate in the coming weeks.

Mauricio Dubon Superfan (Sacramento ): I keep saying his name over and over. I dig some of the moves Farhan made at the deadline. Tell me all about Mauricio Dubon. Will we see him in the majors soon?

Jon Hegglund: I thought we would see him, like, yesterday, until Zaidi found a Scooter-Gennett-sized coin on the street right before the deadline. Dubon is probably a utility guy long-term, but could be a good #2 hitter in all the ways that Joe Panik used to be.

Matt (Boston): Have teams realized perpetual contention for the foreseeable future is better(or at least more profitable) than winning a World Series? Does’t that explain the trade deadline?

Jon Hegglund: Ahhhh, you took the red pill, didn't you?

It's hard to make sweeping generalizations based on one, singular season, but this is what happens when teams are driven by boards of directors and financial analysts. But also, the fact that the Dodgers and Astros are so far ahead of their NL and AL counterparts, respectively, makes it easier to press pause on big "go for it" moves. There's a reasonable path for many teams to get to the LDS and possibly the LCS, and then you hope you have a few lucky days. For the lesser fish, getting to the WC game, a coin-flip at best, just looks less attractive with each passing year. And if you're a selling team, you don't want to offload your big assets at less than value, which may be all you can get from unmotivated buyers. So all this leads to a bunch of lesser moves, save the Reds/Indians/Padres deal and, of course, Greinke.

Lloyd Braun (Frank & Estelle's garage): I took over a dynasty team and my minor league roster needs some long term upside in the OF. Who would you be targeting in the high upside, under 20,still in A ball crowd? Available cheap or free are: Valera, Robinson, Kepenic, Julio Rodriguez, Brennen Davis. Thanks!

Jon Hegglund: I am precisely not the person to answer this, but I am making it a point to drive 90 miles to see Kristian Robinson later this month before he leaves the blessed Northwest (if he hasn't gone already). But I would otherwise direct you to our midseason top 50, where Kelenic is the top name on this list by a fair margin.

cracker73 (Florida): Lewin Diaz was traded to the Marlins.

Jon Hegglund: Crap. You're right. DELETE DELETE DELETE

Fortner1113 (WV): How do you think Gingergaard will fare tonight?

Jon Hegglund: Justin & Dustin meet, lock eyes, simultaneously shout, THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE, meet on the field with broadswords, and Dodger Stadium is sucked into a vortex of flying ginger hair, leaving a smoking husk in Chavez Ravine and ending the sordid history of the Los Angeles Dodgers forever.

That, or 5 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks, 5 Ks. No decision.

Jon Hegglund: OK, since I'd obviously forgotten about Sergio Romo trade, it's time to log off. What a week. What a life. Until next time, mazel tov, my friends.