Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday August 06, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and can explain everything about the Mets if you just give him a minute.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I actually remembered a full day in advance that I had a chat. So let's do it.

Craig (Chicago): How does the Brewers IF shake out the rest of the way this season? Hiura will play everyday?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hiura was our sixth overall prospect coming into the year. Jarrett was going to argue for him at one at midseason if he had still been in the minors (he would have lost that fight, but). He has a .927 OPS in the majors. He should play every day.

David (Atlantis): As an evaluator when it comes to recent draftees how much does the actual professional game performance after signing influence your thoughts on them? For example CJ Abrams even though a high pick seems to be destroying it out there. Does his performance although SSS make you reevaluate your opinion on him that you had on him from before the draft?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It matters sometimes. I'm on Adley Rutschman right now, and the "performance" hasn't been great, but all the underlying stuff looked fine. It's a long year for a college catcher. I wrote about Riley Greene for tomorrow, and that's a case where the performance has basically hewn exactly to Keanan's pre-draft report. I didn't have an opinion on Abrams pre-draft per se (Keanan was lower on him than the industry, yeah), but now that he is in the Midwest League we will get some looks an adjust as needed. Especially in the low minors performance (does not equal sign) stats all the time.

Stir-Crazy in Storrs (CT): Three sluggers in lower minors: George Valera, Andrew Vaughn, Triston Casas. Who will have the best career, assuming no injuries or asteroid collisions? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd assume Vaughn will slot in a fair bit ahead of Valera on our 2020 101. That's on the strength of the floor/safety though, you could certainly argue Valera has more upside with the bat.

neel348 (New Haven): What would a full season stat line look like for Ezequiel Duran?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I said .260/20 home runs in my eyewitness so maybe .260/.330/.450. There will be some variance there, and I've already gotten feedback that "fuck, he might be a 6."

2015 vibes (LGM): a little????

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's way more 2016

Jeff (Queens): I offer Pete Alonso a 9 year/100 MM contract this offseason--what does he say?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he takes that. What's that basically the Rizzo deal plus inflation? Makes sense for both sides.

Ron (Texarkana): Does Mike Leake fit into the plans for the Diamondbacks? Do the Diamondbacks really even have a plan?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Somebody has to pitch the innings, and one thing Mike Leake can give you is innings. I'd rather rebuilding teams do this then cycle through endless soft 4 Triple-A arms.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): How serious is the Cano injury this time around?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a torn hamstring, so check back in February 2020.

George (Somewhere): The Yankees seem to be able to keep developing interesting lower level prospects that I thought would be used to flip at the trade deadline. Since they didn’t I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the recently promoted Luis Gil? Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: We have had a lot of Luis Gil coverage this year. Gil is a big arm who might not have the third pitch or command to start. mid-90s fastball that touches higher with plane, and a low-80s power curve.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): Is Tony Gonsolin really this good? Has his delivery taken another step forward or are we seeing Ross Stripling 2.0?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's probably not quite THIS good. He doesn't really have a track record of consistently throwing this many strikes anywhere. But also if he's Ross Stripling but durable, that's a pretty good major league arm.

Jeff (Park): Are Dedniel Nunez/Michel Otanez people to legitimately keep an eye on? Or are we only really hearing about them because the pitching depth is so shallow?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Otanez, yes. Nunez is a little more generic. But yeah, the pitching depth in the system is so shallow, people are probably gonna talk disproportionately about both.

Mail Yhprum (Xnorb): Anything you can think of in baseball to put me in a not crap mood?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig Goldstein's best thing in baseball column might be the prescription for you. This was my suggestion to him for this week's entry.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/08/05/marlins-rookie-isan-diaz-home-run-parents-interview-video

Pete (Quebec): Has Brandon Marsh done anything to move the needle this year (for better or for worse)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not really. He's been banged up and still isn't getting the raw power into games, but I don't see his moving a ton either way (which given where he was ranked, might move him to like 104 or something, which will feel like. bigger drop than it is).

Ross (LI): When Alexander Ramirez signs for $2.1MM as the MLBPipeline 28th ranked IFA, and many ranked higher signed for way less, does that mean the Mets think they know something that others dont, or does it mean they agreed to the deal when he was more highly regarded at age 14/15 or something?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It certainly could be the latter, but these rankings tend to be fuzzier than comparable rankings of prep draftees or whatever just because of the lack of information.

Mike (Maine): what happened to andrelton to turn him into an actually really good hitter?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He always had good contact skills, just started hitting the ball harder and pulling it more. I dunno if league averagish counts as "really good," but obviously given the glove it's more than enough to make him a good regular.

Alex (Austin): Am I an idiot for dropping Lorenzo Cain in favor of keeping Trent Grisham in my dynasty league? Cain has been a benchwarmer all year behind Acuna, S. Marte, Ozuna, Franimal, and Castellanos (start 3).

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would guess with that much outfield depth you can take a young upside flyer. It's fine. I might have tried to get something for Cain, but I dunno enough about your league.

Chris (DC): Is it safe to assume that Archie Bradley will be the DBacks' closer moving forward? He has pitched very well recently and has recorded the team's last two saves.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. And getting him some saves down the stretch might pump his value a little in the "proven veteran closer" sense this offseason if they really are selling.

Mark (New York): Any early reports on Kody Hoese in pro ball? Off to a nice start in the Midwest League.

Jeffrey Paternostro: We will try to get out midwest league guys in his area code before the season's up.

JD Davis (NY): Do you think I can learn to be competent defensively at any position? Also, if you could go back, you’d still do that trade, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You are a big dude and not super athletic, so that's gonna be a limiting factor. I think there was some opportunity cost in the deal, and you'd hope in this market you could find a bad glove .800 OPS bat a bit cheaper, but it's hardly their worst process. I liked Adolph and Santana, but they were never likely to be starters let alone stars.

Brandon (NY): How close is Andres Gimenez to getting his stock back to where it was preseason? What does he have to do

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd like to get a look, but unfortunately they are in town this weekend while I am at SabSem. The swing has been a little less choppy lately by reports, but I might be making a drive to pick up the promoted arms anyway since filling out twenty dudes for the Mets list will be tricky this year.

lbement (MA): Does Colton Welker need a trade to have a successful big league career? or does he find a way to mash for the Rockies?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I still haven't figured out what auguries to use to figure out Rockies prospect playing time. But yeah, he's probably blocked by Pat Valaika or something.

DD (Ashbury ): Is too much being made of the Mets shallow farm system? Rosario was a top top guy and is starting to finally show it. Pete and Jeff are playing like two guys who were top 10 prospects, and they all have a lot of control

Jeffrey Paternostro: The problem isn't the top line talent on the major league roster, the problem is the bottom ten spots on the roster, that's where the lack of farm system depth has hurt them. And yeah it's fun and all, but after all this, it's still just a .500 team.

Frank (Fyak ): How are you and Jarrett going to react once McNeil finished top 5 in NL mvp voting

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know about top five, but I could see top ten, and it will be a good day for the #brand

Alex (Nj): Been trying really hard to contain my excitement about Amed Rosario, but damn. Given what you’ve seen from him during the last ~6 weeks, what’s your projection/thoughts on him and the kind of player he is going forward ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's looked like he was turning the corner before, but this "feels" more real, mostly because of both the improved strike zone control and quality of contact. I actually think his current season line is probably a fair median outcome from here on out if you think it's real.

jeffmcneil (connecticut): what do you think the mets have done to change their old ways of garbage pre-allstar break baseball to contribute to the ways of great post-allstar break baseball

Jeffrey Paternostro: The starting pitching always had a two week run like this in them. Perhaps there is something to Phil Regan's magic (a lot of these guys jumped in High-A with him) The quality of opponents hasn't hurt. I have a feeling we will know a lot more about the team by the middle of next week.

Steve (Chicago): I'm "rebuilding" in a dynasty league where we have a weekly starts cap, so pitchers get an overall bump in value. I don't want a long, multi-year rebuild. One of my strategies has been to target buy low opportunities on injured pitchers like Taillon, Severino, Cueto, Fulmer, Richards, even Rich Hill. This is totally reasonable, right? My thinking is these guys are closer and more proven than any Single-A pitching prospect I can have.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. Although I'd say there's a bit of a difference between like Luis Severino and Johnny Cueto in this exercise.

Zack (NY): What are next steps for Luiz Gohara at this point? Find an org to sign/rehab with over the offseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm a little shocked someone didn't claim him, but obviously I don't know how bad the injuries/conditioning issues are right now. I assume someone brings him in this offseason because lefties that have flashed that stuff are not a bulk commodity ever.

Riley (Mets): Apparently Stroman wants to sign an extension--what do you think it takes? I was thinking something like 4/55. Similarly, what do you think Wheeler gets? If he finishes with another ~4 WAR season, you gotta figure he's gonna turn down a QO.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably add a year to that and a bit more AAV. 5/75 or 5/80 maybe. Wheeler I have no idea what to do with, but I wouldn't be so sure he turns down a QO given what it did to the pitching FA market last year. And if he banks 1/19, barring major health issues, that might get him a chunk of the way to the total value of a hypothetical 3 or 4 year FA deal anyway,

Elton (Pacific Northwest): I'm in my fourth year of a dynasty league rebuild and have already publicly declared my intention to not compete in 2020. I'm happy with my prospects but I just looked at the top 3-4 teams in my league's standings and realized they have better prospects than me. So now what? Do you think I can get a big time haul for AJ Pollock this offseason to get my minors up to snuff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I feel like there is a lesson in here for the Tigers, Giants, Marlins, maybe a few other teams.

Trent (Bronx): Isn't the fallacy of dynasty leagues this mentality where teams don't try to win every single season? Seems like everyone wants to build a magical superteam that reels off a decade of unchecked dominance. Shouldn't goal one be to compete in the current/next season, regardless if you do it with 20 year olds or 30 year olds, and then once you're competitive tackle how you're going to prolong it?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This also feels like there is a lesson in here.

Todd (CT): Anything positive from David Peterson, or just meh? What about Szapucki? I know you said early reports on him were down, but has his stuff ticked up as his numbers have?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Peterson has looked extremely like David Peterson. Szapucki is a guy we are gonna track down an updated report on because the stuff was middling early on, but he's had an irregular TJ recovery as it is. I will say that 91-94 with feel for a curve will kill A+ though.

Craig (Chicago): By midseason next year, what do you expect SDP starting rotation to be? Gore? Patiño?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I doubt they push either to the majors next year. It's not impossible one or both force the issue late in the season, but also neither will be stretched out. I don't think it will look all that different from this year's.

temple (madison): In a dynasty league I have isan Diaz, Cavan Biggio, and Keston Hiura on my team. Would you keep all 3 and see who turns out best. Or is it obvious that Biggio is low man. and I should use him to address other needs.

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you can get someone to buy Biggio now. I would do that.

Phil Regan (NY): Should I be the pitching coach next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There's a decent chance the Mets will hire someone not as good. There's also now a decent chance they bring everyone back to "keep the momentum" or whatever.

Derwin (NY): Any feel for what the Padres '4-player offer with ML players for Syndergaard was?' Guessing it was some BS like Allen, Margot, Hedges, Morejon

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's broadly in line with what I heard the offseason offers were, so...

Ike (mads): Breaking; JD DAvis Players weekend jersey nickname is 'Dizzle'

Jeffrey Paternostro: Disappointed he didn't go with "Just Dingers," but I don't know how you would even be able to tell on this Curry Two Low Chef ass jerseys.

mordecofe1 (NYC): Would the Giants push Marco Luciano to A ball at all this year due to performance, or does he stay where he is to acclimate a bit more to pro ball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think there's a rush and I'd expect him to start in Augusta next year regardless.

Gary (NY): So you're not buying the 2019 Mets as possibly good?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This seems like a good place to wrap. So here's the thing. They were never meant to be "good," but arguably the only two good teams in the league right now are Los Angeles in Atlanta. They were designed to be exactly this, a high variance 83 win team. They have gotten healthy, improved their rotation, and have beat the low variance 70 win teams. All I'm hoping for is some fun the next two months, so much of Mets baseball since 2009 has been a dirge. You could argue they have only had four fun months in a decade. I don't care if they are actually good. I'll take two more fun months. So much else is garbo elsewhere in the world.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All right, gotta get ready to drive for Adley BP.