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Jarrett Seidler is a Senior Prospect Writer at Baseball Prospectus.
Jarrett Seidler: Howdy and welcome to de facto Home Run Derby chat! I suspect most of you are going to want to talk about prospects, probably. This might be a bit shorter than I usually go because I have an article to finish, and as always you're more likely to get your fantasy question answered if it's presented as a baseball question...
Craig (Chicago ): Does Adonis Medina or Damon Jones have a chance to make it to the majors in PHI this season?
Jarrett Seidler: Saw Medina recently in Double-A and he didn't look like a guy that was close, but he's on the 40-man and it's not like he's going to get punted off, so a September call-up is possible. I like Damon Jones a good bit and think he's a guy who will pitch in the majors, but 2019 is pretty aggressive given that he doesn't have to go on the 40.
Peter (Hillsborough, NC): I wanted to ask about Gingergaard in the reranks. You guys have him at 7, with a lot of sources having him anywhere from 80-120. Can you speculate on the reasons for the gap? I know some of the surface stats haven't been much to write home about at points.
Jarrett Seidler: I don't look much at other lists, if at all, and I certainly wouldn't want to speak to their perspectives. From our's, Dustin May is scraping up to the high-90s, he's throwing a pretty strong four pitch mix, it's a good command profile, and he's a big kid who has been able to handle a pro workload in a way a lot of pitchers lower on the list haven't.
We've been getting strong reports on him since before the draft, and he's backed them at every step of the way. Why would we pull back now?
Vic (Baltimore): Do you feel Eovaldi has a good chance of finishing the year as the closer? When do you think his closing duties might commence?
Jarrett Seidler: This whole situation is profoundly weird to me. It shouldn't have been a secret to Boston that their bullpen was gonna be kinda bad, right? They could've addressed this; hell, they could've just signed Kimbrel in the period where they were the team that didn't need to give up a pick for him. Instead they're screwing with Eovaldi?
The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): What do we have with Luis Arraez? He's so good that the Twins announcers are actually trying to pronounce his name right.
What would you grade Arraez's hit & power tools & D? Would you say he's at least a 50 overall and is there more than that? He's fun to watch.
Jarrett Seidler: I haven't seen him live nor enough to do a full scouting report on him, but I do love hit tool first guys.
The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): I'm assuming Austin Riley will move back to 3B next season when Donaldson goes?
Will Nick Senzel move back to 3B anytime soon or do you think he's a CF now? How is he out there?
Jarrett Seidler: Riley back to third seems like the likeliest outcome, but don't underestimate the chance that they try to plug Camargo back in. I am surprised that Senzel can even play center at all, and it's a real credit to him, but I'm still not sure where his long-term home is yet. Maybe second? Third is blocked by Suarez for some time to come.
Mike (Albany): Who is the best WWE wrestler Pete Alonso could reasonably take in a fight
Jarrett Seidler: Seth Rollins
chza727 (Chicago, IL): Why do the ROS projections on the players cards seem so conservative?
Jarrett Seidler: Projection systems are, by definition, pretty conservative. The ROS projections are basically preseason underlying talent projections scaled to projected rest of season playing time, in my understanding.
Craig (Chicago): Can Austin Gomber come up to STL at some point in second half and be an effective SP for them?
Jarrett Seidler: Sure, he was pretty close to that last year.
Craig (Chicago): Will Wilmer Font or Walter Lockett be given a starting opportunity in NY this season?
Jarrett Seidler: Wheeler seems like he's gone, Vargas is probably next out, they're talking about moving Matz to the pen, there's an underrated chance they shop Syndergaard, and there's basically no rotation depth past these two and Kay. Seems likely to me.
Winston (Toledo): Anthony Kay make his debut this year
Jarrett Seidler: Yes, for all the reasons in the last question.
Cubbie Bear (Chi-Town): Jake Fraley, OF-SEA, has taken a big step forward the last two years. Seattle seems to be pushing him pretty fast too since being drafted in 2016. What do you think his upside is and what his future possibly holds. Thanks.
Jarrett Seidler: We've had recent notes on him in both the Texas League midseason review and one of Lefko's pieces. The short version is that he's always hit when healthy, he just hasn't been healthy a ton.
Bring Back Hegelbon (Online): Is there a good faith argument for Christian Pache to be the second best prospect? It feels like the stuff that makes him good (double plus glove ingood wheels, strong arm) gives him a fairly high floor. Is the delta of outcomes “Kevin kiermaier” to “what we wanted Byron Buxton to be” or am I wildly overrating him?
Jarrett Seidler: On the one hand, you did just describe Juan Lagares. On the other hand, Lagares did have a couple two-plus WARP seasons. But you'd have to *really* believe in Pache's bat to get him to 2 globally, in ways we just don't, and Kiermaier as a floor is aggressive for my tastes (few have a floor that high).
Mike (NY): So any of these prospects have the chance to be as good or better than Juan Soto in 5 years. I saw a stat Soto is younger than 35 of the players that were in the futures game.
Jarrett Seidler: It's possible, but if we were ranking Soto he'd be a mile ahead of any of these guys; he's been one of the better hitters in the majors for a year and a half already.
BG (Sandy Point): Luis Castillo: Ace? No. 2? Backend?
Jarrett Seidler: I've gotta see him do it for longer to throw ace on him, but no. 2 seems like a good compromise until we do.
Mike (NY): Think the derby gets Vlad Jr going or is he just going to have an ordinary rookie season.
Jarrett Seidler: Well he just broke Hamilton's record for homers in a round so
He's having a fine season. He's 20. He's probably going to be one of the best players in baseball eventually, and if it takes a couple years to get there, that's okay. He's fun.
cracker73 (Florida): What is the upside of Jesus Sanchez? I once thought he was a potential superstar, but now it seems more likely to me that he ends up being an "average" mlb outfielder, with good years of .280/ 25 HR/ 90 RBI.
Jarrett Seidler: Keanan filed on him a few weeks ago and thought he had a chance to be an All-Star type player in his better years.
Lougle (Smithtown, LI): How close was Nolan Jones to making the midseason list and what would you need to see in the second half from him to make that jump?
Jarrett Seidler: So we had about 70 players in the final consideration set for the list and Jones was outside of that, but only barely so. That doesn't mean he wouldn't have been in the 50s or 60s if we ranked out that far, it just means he wasn't one of the last guys we talked about. We'll surely take a real strong look at him for the 101. Defensive improvements and getting more of his raw into games are things we'll be looking at closely.
Alec Denton (Atlanta ): How do BP's park effects account for things like the London Series?
Jarrett Seidler: I asked Harry Pavlidis about this since a.) he is one of the smartest people I know and b.) he is in charge of this sort of thing. The London Series is not presently being separately accounted for because the sample size is too small to do so.
cowhitchurch (Austin): Chance we see Luis Robert in Chicago before 2019 ends?
Jarrett Seidler: 35 percent? The White Sox have the usual incentives to keep him down, but if he blitzes Triple-A (and with the new baseball he might) they're gonna be under a lot of pressure in a month.
Ralphie (Boulder): Thoughts on wilderd patino
Jarrett Seidler: Something that's changed about the way we cover prospects is that guys like this don't stay a secret for long. Patino came up from multiple sources as a hot rising complex name to watch when we started canvassing for our midseason products. (I think Jeffrey worked that into a chat already.) I don't see the Dominican or Arizona complexes myself, but he's firmly on our radar.
Quincy (Davenport): Brennen Davis the next big thing?
Jarrett Seidler: There are others ahead of him on the next big thing list, but he got a pretty aggressive assignment and he's thriving. He's another one I expect we'll be taking a much harder look at after the season.
John (St. Louis): How real is Dylan Carlson?
Jarrett Seidler: We had a good amount of internal debate about Carlson. The power projection was always there but it's actualized, and he's unexpectedly moved up the defensive spectrum to center (and might even stick there). He's probably jumped a full role grade for us, which is a ton for halfway through the season; we described his growth as "explosive" in the Texas League midseason discussion.
Mike (NY): Do the Indians blow everything up after this year and deal Lindor to a team like the Dodgers in order to move Seager to 1st. Would the Indians get May, Lux, and Smith for Lindor?
Jarrett Seidler: Funny thing: we were talking on the podcast the other week about which guy might get Lux or May moved at the deadline, and we came up with Lindor. I don't think they'd get *both* for him since he's not cost-controlled and only has two and a half years left, but maybe the Dodgers are all in.
The Whole Damn Show (@deeej15): Will Ospreay is the Jo Adell of wrestling. It’s really stupid that he’s not at the top of everybody’s lists right now.
Jarrett Seidler: We have reached the wrestling segment of the chat.
I like this comparison, in that Ospreay is the most talented and spectacular wrestler in the world, just like Adell is the most talented and spectacular prospect, but Okada has that certain floor that Franco provides. And there's arguments for any of them.
cowhitchurch (Austin): What was your favorite match from the G1 in Dallas and why was it SANADA-ZSJ?
Jarrett Seidler: Okada/Tanahashi. It is one of the greatest rivalries ever and I got to see a classic match of their's from the front row. I'll remember the atmosphere and small package spot long after I forget everything else that happened on that show (other than Ospreay getting chokeslammed through a table inches in front of me).
cowhitchurch (Austin): If you were doing a "prospect rankings" of pro wrestlers ... For these purposes you could say like, guys currently under 30 or under 25, give us your Top 5.
Jarrett Seidler: Ospreay is somehow only 26. Dragon Lee is somehow only 24. Pete Dunne is somehow only 25. Tyler Bate is somehow only 22. If you set the limit at 30, Hiromu is still eligible.
Sneaky sleepers here: A-Kid and Shota Umino.
Jarrett Seidler: This was fun! But I have to go finish an article before Nick and Craig get antsy. Thanks everyone, and if you didn't get your question answered here, Jeffrey and Wilson will be chatting later in the week.
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