Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday July 01, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and can't wait to see Craig in less than a week.

Jeffrey Paternostro: This will be a short one since I have a ton of writing to do and also am dealing with a small kudzu problem around my house. Never buy a house IMO.

Dan (NY ): Marco Luciano - jumps up rankings like Franco did last year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if he gets to top ten prospect in baseball, but otherwise yes. George Valera, D'Shawn Knowles, and Wilderd Patino are the other guys I could see getting a rocket up their ass come Novemberish.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): When will the Texas Rangers magic fairy dust wear off?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So once you get to this point in the season you've started to bank enough wins that you can play .500ish ball and still be around the playoffs. There also at the point now where there's added value in buying (say, a pitcher or three), so the calculations can change even if the regression might come. Also, sometimes the career years all hit at the same time and no one knows until after. That all said, I think they end up falling just short of a wild card spot in the end.

Lonnie (Myers house): How long before Sixto gets injured?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Boo this man.

I am pretty stoked to see him in a one-inning blow it out showcase at futures this weekend though.

Bryan J (Earth): Is kelenic ok?!?!?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So he did have a hand injury and those can linger, but I don't have any even medium term concerns, and certainly nothing that would impact like prospect list type thoughts. And it could just be a bad two weeks anyway.

Kenny (Alsip): I saw a new prospect list this morning that had Dustin May at 120, behind guys like Malcom Nunez. Has his stock plummeted this year? I know you guys had him high at the beginning of the year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He will be higher than that on our Midseason 50.

edwar288 (Minneapolis): Rest of the season for a deep fantasy points league...? Mitch Garver or Josh Pheagley? I like Garver but I am worried about is at bats with Castro and Willians.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess I'd bet on Garver's upside, which man our words strung together in an order I never expected to use.

Lenny (Miami): As a Gallen owner, I'm annoyed by the Jose Urquidy talk. He's nowhere as talented as Gallen. Isn't it annoying that everyone always wants to love the next thing instead of appreciating what they have?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well there can only be one Gallen owner per league. I think? I haven't played fantasy baseball in a decade, but I recall that being a general rule. Don't covet what you can't have or whatever I guess.

Chino5 (Somers, CT): I'm in dead last and totally rebuilding my team in a keeper fantasy league. I almost certainly will have the top pick in our draft this winter and the top 3 choices are Vladito, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yordan Alvarez. Whom would you select?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This could change over the balance of the season, but it's got to be Tatis at this point.

treemeister (NC): so how about this Alek Thomas guy? Folks???

Jeffrey Paternostro: I expect he will be on our risers list as part of the Midseason 50 supplemental content next week.

Bort (Sprungfield): Isan Diaz = baby Cano?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Normally I'd just say, don't comp hall of famers, but since, wellllllllll ya know, I'll just say don't comp 60 WARP players. The hit/power profile is very different too.

ironcityguys (urban area): Does BP have to reevaluate Lourdes Gurriel's upside? He's killing the ball! 1000 OPS

Jeffrey Paternostro: One of the nice things about this gig is once they get 130 AB I hand off that responsibility to someone else.

Jordan (South Dakota): In a dynasty league, I just traded away every single one of my prospects and draft picks in two separate trades for Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard. Both have enormous salaries, so I will cut all my other players and keep the two of them. How did I do?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Build a time machine and forward your resume to Drayton MacLane?

Craig (Chicago): Elieser Hernnandez off to a nice start in MIA. What does he project out long term? Can he keep this up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, maybe. He was a bit rushed by way of being a Rule 5 pick last year, and seems to have consolidate some stuff in 2019. It's not eye popping stuff though, so I wonder how long this works as a starter.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Light queue this week which gives myself a chance to go back to the overgrown brush I guess. See you next week for a Midseason 50 chat.