Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jon Hegglund

Chat: Jon Hegglund

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday June 21, 2019 3:00 PM ET chat session with Jon Hegglund.

Jon Hegglund is a member of the Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Team and loves to remember Benny Agbayani.

Jon Hegglund: I just traded Mike Soroka for Jorge Polanco--how'd I do? Oh, I'm supposed to answer the questions? FINE. Let's begin.

Ron (Texarkana): Looking into your beautiful crystal ball, who has the better 3B fantasy profile for 2020 & beyond, Yoan Moncada or Eugenio Suarez?

Jon Hegglund: Hi, Ron. This is really a question about your risk tolerance. Moncada's had the kind of year that could point to a really special career, while Suarez has been a steady Eddie for three-plus years running. I'll lean Moncada because of the power/speed combo and the fact that Suarez is probably more of a .250 hitter going forward.

bg (SEA): Real-life value, not fantasy, how would you rank the following over the next five years: Luis Castillo, Chris Paddack, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Foltynewicz, Jake Odorizzi.

Jon Hegglund: Castillo and Paddack in their own tier, but interesting that both are dominating with basically two pitches. Then probably Folty, and uhhhh tough to decide between the bottom two. I still think Kikuchi stabilizes into a solid #3-type, and Odorizzi has been riding a hell of a lot of HR luck for a fly-ball pitcher.

dzemens (Toledo): What are your thoughts going forward on Jimmy Nelson? Will he put it back together, is he worth holding onto much further than 3 starts (assuming he doesn't get shelled again 6/20).

Jon Hegglund: NARRATOR: He got shelled on 6/20.

I'm not optimistic, to be honest. I was surprised he was getting hyped in the preseason as a good stash. Labrum injuries are no joke, even if it happened in a freakish way. I'd be fine letting go in 15-team and shallower.

Slappy (NC): Two Reds questions. What's the likelihood we see Derick Dietrich return to his early-season bashing, or is this a regression to his norm? Also, can we expect a fair number of saves or holds from Michael Lorenzen, or are the Reds bullpen roles too unsettled to confidently predict? thanks

Jon Hegglund: Ah, the glorious Dietrich Spring. The eyeblack moustache. The throwback jersey unbuttoned halfway down. The beekeeper outfit. The home run pimping. Look back with fondness, for we may never see its like again. The improved plate discipline has been nice to see, but I think he's found his level as a platoon/bench bat.

As for Lorenzen: don't listen to David Bell when he tells you that nothing has changed in the Reds' bullpen. Lorenzen is the guy until he's not, and with each passing save he tightens his grip. No matter what they say, managers (and I assume pitchers) don't want a committee and it would be easy for all concerned if Lorenzen takes the job and runs with it.

Jake (Kalamazoo): One of the reasons I was optimistic about Jurickson Profar this year was his relatively low BABIP last year. Fast forward a couple months and it looks like he's playing the same tune in a different location. Is this who he is or do you see room for more?

Jon Hegglund: Well, it wasn't that low relative to his career BABIP. I'd set my expectations right between last season and this season to date--which is something like .235/.310/.425? The move from Arlington to Oakland has compounded a sluggish start, and I'm not sure he's fantasy relevant outside of deep and -only leagues right now.

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier, what's his upside?

Jon Hegglund: His upside is to be a member of the Giants within a week or two as part of a Madison Bumgarner package. If this happens, Dusty, I promise you I will give you no less than a hundred words on Wander Javier.

sykklone (IA): What can we expect from Isan Diaz? The Marlins are going nowhere what are they waiting for?

Jon Hegglund: Yeah, seems like he's ticked all the boxes. Thing is, he hasn't played anything but 2B in AAA (if my quick search is accurate). I guess Starlin Castro is blocking him? If they could move Starlin, Diaz would be up within minutes. Either way, we'll see him sometime this summer.

dan22ke9 (Bathroom stall at ORD): Delayed flight... again. If Cardinals fall say 7 out by ASB is Ozuna ( last yr. of his contract and no movement to resign) one of the best bats that will be available? What kind of prospect would he fetch? Indians?

Jon Hegglund: Man, I hope you made it out of that stall. Sure, Ozuna would be prime for an AL team that could hide him in a corner OF spot and DH him a couple of times/week. I'm not sure it's in the Cardinals' DNA to be sellers, though.

bgawlowski14 (WU Pine Bowl): Should Spokane get a Triple-A team again?

Jon Hegglund: I'll say this about Spokane: it's better than its reputation (especially among snobbish Sounders). On many days, you could arguable get to T-Mobile Park faster from Spokane than from Tacoma. That said, I'm pretty psyched to catch some hot short-season NW League action this summer. (checking schedule now for Kristian Robinson's visits to town...)

Mike (Dover): I'm in an 18-team keep forever dynasty, I'm in playoff push mode and my potential trade partner is in sell mode. I give Mazara, Ohtani (sp), Adell, Gorman, Langeliers and Witt Jr. [we can draft HS, NCAA, J2, foreign pro-league players]. I get Kershaw, Hader, Osuna, and Chapman (rp). Going for my 5th title in a row and I have an open window for another 3 seasons at least. Fair?

Jon Hegglund: As one oriented toward redraft leagues, my natural bias will be to push in and go for the title. But, man, that is A LOT to give. You've won four in a row...when is it enough? Is it ever enough? This may sound facetious, but my answer is: do what makes you happy. If you are looking forward to building another dynasty, you've got some fantastic foundation pieces.

Max (Reno, NV): It’s time for me to move on from Joey Votto in my dynasty leagues. What’s a fair market price?

Jon Hegglund: I don't have to tell you that you're selling extremely low, but in dynasty, this is only headed in one direction (see Eno Sarris's piece in The Athletic...yeah, paywall, I know...for a clear-eyed view of Votto's decline). I don't have a specific market price in mind, but even getting 50 cents on the dollar is justifiable right now.

bmmcmahon (Newport Beach, CA): 5x5 roto w OBP. I have Joey Gallo, Andrelton Simmons, and Jake Lamb getting ready to come of the DL so I'm going to have to drop some folks. Assuming no positional adjustments necessary, in what order would you drop these players: Profar, C. Hernandez, J. Donaldson, Jackie Bradley, DDS, JaCoby Jones, Cole Calhoun, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Lamb.

Jon Hegglund: Jones, Profar, Cesar, Lamb, JBJ, DeShields, Calhoun, Schwarber, Donaldson.

Jon Hegglund: All right, folks, I cleared the queue and it's lunchtime, so I'm cutting out a bit early. The Righteous Mark Barry will be here to guide you next Friday, and I'll see you again soon. Later!