Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday June 07, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the lead prospect writer for Baseball Prospectus with extensive knowledge of cocktails and fine dining, but less so in terms of your fantasy conundrums.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's your post-draft, pre-Citi-Field event chat.

KJ (Providence): Only have a spot for one in a dynasty. Contention window 2-3 years out. George Valera, Alek Thomas, Dylan Carlson, Jazz Chisholm, Keibert Ruiz, Daulton Varsho, Nolan Jones, Trevor Larnach, Xavier Edwards, Shane Baz, Michel Baez, Or Seth Beer. Also, I wish I had 10 more roster spots

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd probably go with Carlson or Larnach. Keibert is the best pure prospect here, but also might not be a huge fantasy factor.

Mike (Maryland): Is Adley a top 5 prospect in baseball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's probably a smidge too high, but I'm guessing he will be our highest ranked 1.1 in a long while.

Ash (Detroit): If Isaac Paredes is forced to move off of 3B, does his bat play at 1B/DH? I assume he'll get better power results in AAA with the juiced ball.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I blurbed Paredes in NFTF a couple weeks ago, noting that a lot of things would have to go right for him to be a MLB regular. Moving to 1B would be something going wrong, although he stretched at third even now. The swing looks fine, and maybe the new ball helps him a lot, but it doesn't really jump now.

chad (DE): Braves "glut" of young pitching- other than Soroka and maybe Touki and Anderson, who do you think can be an above average starter there?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We have strong reports on Muller and he's jumped into Midseason 50 consideration.

Concerned Friend (Anywhere ): Is there cause to be concerned about the frigid season of Luis Garcia (Nationals) in AA? I know he’s young but this is bad. Same goes for Tirso Ornelas. Have their stocks faded or are they both just in need of some adjustments? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Good production always beats bad production, but I'm not super concerned about Garcia yet. I didn't get a long enough look to write him up, but everything looked fine enough, but perhaps I am just a rube seduced by age relative to league. He's never been a huge upside guy, so you would like to see more statistical success I suppose. Brandon wrote up Tirso recently and there's uh fewer issues there.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/49450/eyewitness-accounts-may-2-2019/

boatman44 (Liverpool): Will the Orioles stop faffing about, this month and bring Ryan and Yusneil up ,to see what they have for the future? Cheers Jeffrey

Jeffrey Paternostro: Diaz has been bad and hurt, so it's probably fine to see if he can make some gains in the second half in Double-A first. We are about at the Super 2 safe harbor date so I wouldn't be shocked if we see Mountcastle somewhat soon, but they also don't have an obvious place to play him given their glut of corner bats.

Vic (Baltimore): Anything to believe Cain's production has set its new level? Also, Come July 1, who is more produces more over last 3 months, Cain or J Up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's mostly BABIP so far, but he is heading towards the wrong side of the aging curve, so there could be more to it I suppose. I guess if he is running less (although that might be a function of being on base less), Upton has a bit more upside, but I'd monitor him first to see if how he comes back.

Carl (SF): Favorite college bat in this year’s draft after Adley, Vaughn, Bleday, Langeliers, and Bishop?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If this is a dynasty question I will defer to Bret who has Stott as the next highest college bat. Since you included Shea it might be an actual prospect question, I'm shocked. I have a soft spot for Toglia, but I will have firmer opinions on this come list season.

chad (DE): youve had a few months to look back- which prospect in your top 101 are you kicking yourself for ranking too high? and too low?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I've been sketching out a first draft of the Midseason 50, which is a good way to frame this I suppose. Honestly most of the guys that have made big moves one way or the other are health related (Whitley, Luzardo, Abreu), swing change related (Kelenic, Gimenez), or other not necessarily foreseeable stuff in November. I would say the two that jump out at me are Wander Franco, who I probably should have pushed a little higher (although almost everyone above him is now at least a decent regular and he's in the Midwest League) and Kyle Muller (always listen to David Lee about Braves prospects basically)

Jim (Portland): Will you be doing a midseason Mets top 10? Interested to know if Mauricio has passed Gimenez and where the three draft picks rank.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't even like doing a national Midseason 50. Jarrett and I chatted a little bit about this on the pod, and it looks like a bit of a mushy top five where you could rank Gimenez, Kay, Maurcio, Allen, Baty in various orders (some of this will become clearer over the second half of the season). They are all in the OFP 55-60 range with differing risk factors and horizons to major league utility. Wolf is the next tier down and has some things broadly in common with Woods-Richardson, although it's two different types of Texas prep arms. That tier would be Newton, Vientos, Wolf, SWR, and likely an XST guy or two that pops in short season.

boatman44 (Liverpool): Brayan Rocchio starting the season in the NY Penn league I imagine ,or is there an injury concern we have'nt heard about ? cheers

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would assume he and Valera both start there, and yeah I've looked at the Mahoning Valley schedule a few times.

Bailey (Maryland): Will Jose Martinez ever get playing time? I mortgaged my future for him in a dynasty league.

Jeffrey Paternostro: That seems...unwise. Anyway, he hasn't hit a ton and he's a bad defender everywhere, so I won't be shocked if he keeps bleeding playing time unless the bat returns to previous levels.

Bobby Shmurda (New York): Does Ronny Mauricio have a shot at the midseason list?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's on the long list and will get strong consideration. I'd expect him to show up in the just missed section, but this draft is gonna get torn up a hundred times over the next month.

Elton (Pacific NW): Last season I traded away Gary Sanchez and James Paxton for Kiriloff and Musgrove in my dynasty league. I'm on the verge of contending, but I think I need to wait at least another year. Who would you sell off of my most useful pieces: Haniger, Moustakas, Musgrove, or Kiriloff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You'd be selling awfully low on Kiriloff and Haniger I'd expect. Maybe you can still find a Joe Musgrove believer out there.

Fred (California): Is Alejandro Pie the next Wander Franco?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The answer to "Is _____ the next Wander Franco?" is going to be "almost assuredly not." Although in this particular instance I will note that he got assigned to the DSL and not the App as a 17 year old, which is also a strong indicator that he isn't going to be.

sportsguy21792 (madison): Chance that Poncedeleon sticks around for the Cards after a spot start? Will the Cards be looking for a starter to counter the Cubs move?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There's certainly a spot available, and I like him a little more than I should, but the Cards probably should be looking for another proven arm if they are serious about a pennant chase, and that's regardless of the Cubs signing Kimbrel. They would have been an interesting landing spot for Keuchel, but you can say that about 15 other teams that didn't want to beat 1/13

sportsguy21792 (m): Which of the following Marlins at AAA should I hold in a dynasty league: Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison or Lewis Brinson?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Diaz and Harrison were similarly tiered in our Midseason 50 draft (not on it, but a lower tier on the long list), but for fantasy purposes the power/speed combo gives Harrison the clear edge here.

Bill (Bethlehem): What did you think of the Mets draft strategy? If they sign the top 3 guys are all the seniors at 4-10 worth it?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So it wouldn't be my ideal strategy (if you are gonna do that, go all the way and break the draft like Jarrett laid out this week), but given their lack of success drafting day 2 college juniors for basically the last decade, they got the same kind of prospects they'd get anyway, and got better talent in the first three rounds than they'd usually get. Now the Day 3 glut of senior signs is bizarre and feels like a weird analytics thing.

Seth (Midwest): You hear a lot about x player making a swing change for the better, what prospects have seen their swings change for the worse recently

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wrote about this with Andres Gimenez a couple weeks ago. Monte Harrison is a guy that has fooled around with timing stuff with his lower half and has had some issues.

tallahassee (Chatham, NJ): Does Cavan Biggio stick? What can we expect the rest of the way? I’m in a hits plus walks league, and I’m hoping you think he can handle MI for the rest of the year. (Fingers crossed)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he's fine as a bench piece. I'm not sold on him as an everyday second baseman at all defensively, and I don't think the power plays quite as much in the majors. Now, the Jays might play him there the rest of the year so you might be fine for eligibility purposes.

Nils (NY): Once he signs, does Adley pass Keibert as top C prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah

chad (DE): Gimenez- how far has his stock fallen? 50 OFP now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So if I was just writing him off my Trenton look last month, that's probably about right, but I didn't have to fortunately. He's also gotten hurt since then, so he is gonna be a mess to write and rank this year I have a feeling.

boatman44 (Liverpool): Is Michel Baez being pegged as a bullpen arm now ,as he has not started a game this season or s this just San Diego looking after him due to his early season injury? cheers.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a little of both probably. He's more likely to end up there long term than a year or two ago, but also is probably getting stretched out a little.

sportsguy21792 (madison): How long does Keuchel throw in Gwinett? Who does he bump out of the rotation when he is ready?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is pretty unknowable from my end. No idea how ready he is or isn't. Gio made three starts in the minors. FWIW, but that was also a shorter layoff. I'd probably have him replace Folty since he's maybe more likely to find something in the pen than Gausman, but really either is fine, and Folty has been "better" recently.

Penner (Ottawa): Has the future outlook on Seuly Matias changed with his start in A+ or is still just a matter of him further developing his hit tool?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So this is one of those ones where I am more nervous about two months of performance than I would be otherwise because it's a case of going wrong in the exact way it would go wrong if it were going to go wrong. It's not a death knell but his stock is down (oh this might actually be a 101 ranking I kick myself for)

Lathund (Miller Park): Brewers went college-heavy (18 out of first 20 were college or JC), as well as rather LHP-heavy with 7 in that same span. Any insight into why? Philosophy, constraints from small bonus pool, seeking more immediate help, simply best player available or something else?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jared Diamond wrote about the analytics leading teams away from prep players today at the Journal (although I agree with Jarrett's point on this that a lot of the best prep talent isn't signing because of the hard pools). And the Brewers are an org that certainly considers analytics in the draft room (although that is most teams to varying degrees now). Signability given their smaller pool could certainly be part of it as you noted. Also sometimes it just plays out weird this way for a team or two out of 30. So it might just be nothing.

AJ (Boston): What did you think of the RedSox draft? Seemed like they picked up a few nice upside guys with their limited resources...

Jeffrey Paternostro: I really liked it. I don't know if it's like top five on a total talent level, but I think they did incredibly well given their constraints. Also not gonna complain about having a good Lowell team to watch.

darielsantana (santo domingo): yandy diaz or cj cron ROS?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maaaaaaan, I don't really have strong feelings about this at all. I guess maybe Cron since we know this is basically his usual level of production? There's more risk and Yandy. I guess it depends on if you need hit or power to some degree.

Alex (Austin): How much has Alek Thomas increased his status this season? Is his apparent lack of hard contact concerning?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's another Midseason 50 long list guy, and the underlying power numbers aren't bad at all for a 19 year old in the Midwest League.

cracker73 (Florida): Could you please rank these prospects according to their fantasy upside: Dylan Carlson, D'Shawn Knowles, Antonio Cabello, George Valera, Jesus Sanchez, and Heliot Ramos? I'm in a points league.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Valera, Carlson, Ramos, Sanchez, Cabello, Knowles I guess.

Jordan (South Dakota): Seems Fine.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Agreed

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'll be back after short season kicks off, until then, see you at BP Citi next weekend .