Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Ben Carsley

Chat: Ben Carsley

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday June 10, 2019 8:00 PM ET chat session with Ben Carsley.

Ben Carsley is an author at Baseball Prospectus and the low man on Xander Bogaerts.

Ben Carsley: Hello! It appears as though this chat will be short. But will it be sweet as well? We'll see, dear reader. We'll see.

AJ (Phoenix): I need to fill 2B for next season and beyond in my dynasty league. I have two ongoing discussions, one for Luis Urias, and one for Brendan Rodgers. Which discussion should take precedence here?

Ben Carsley: The short answer: Rodgers. The long answer: This is an exercise in ceiling vs. floor. I think Urias is more likely to at least be usable in fantasy leagues for all of 2020, but he might hit, like. 270 with 10 homers and steals. There's a better chance Rodgers flops, but also a better chance he hits, like, .280 with 25 bombs and 10 steals. So again, TL;DR: Rodgers. It's not really *that* close.

Jarrett (The Jersey Shore): If you named your daughter Daenerys or Khaleesi, what would you change her name to now?

Ben Carsley: Shireen

Joe (Chicago): Have you heard anything about Taylor Trammell at all lately? Heā€™s still finding a way to get on base, but his average and power are totally in the tank. Just a 2 month short sample adjusting to new league?

Ben Carsley: I'm not worried. Trammell never profiled as a particularly fast-moving prospect aside from on the field, where he does indeed move rather fast. I'm more concerned about the power than the average, tbh, but as you said, he's still finding ways to be semi-productive. Still a future OF2 and top-20 fantasy prospect for me.

bob (philly): I just recently picked up Kevin Cron and Josh Naylor when they came up----and I was prety happy about getting them----gonna be tough for both to get playing time right now but they're off to a nice start when they had a chance to play. Both seem to have a track record of good hit/contact and power tools, so what are your thoughts about their ceilings and their futures with the Padres and D'Backs respectively! Thx. How do you feel about their ceilings and their futures in the Bigs?

Ben Carsley: Bret? Is this you? As much as I've argued with my Internet Dad about being too high on Naylor ... I like Naylor substantially more. I am a bigger believer in the hit tool, even if I think he needs to move to DH yesterday. As for Kevin and the entire Cron family, I just want to say thank you. You have brought me more joy than you could ever know, and I hope you produce a long line of thicc, slugging sons who mash dongers while looking like what I imagine everyone in Iowa looks like. God bless.

Aldaberto Mondesi (Medford.OR): Am I real and what does my future look like?

Ben Carsley: I think this is who you are. You're super fast. You've got more pop than people think. You hate walking more than a WALL-E human. Some years your BABIP will boost you to a .280 average, other years you'll be closer to .250. But you'll steal 30-plus bases and hit 12-plus homers, and that's swell. Plus, whenever a player has this much athleticism, you can hold out at least a little hope for a true breakout. You are only 23, after all.

slappy123 (Charlotte): Ben, I need to create 3 or 4 roster spots in my MILB roster. (Dynasty, salary cap, H2H, 14 category). Are any of these guys worth holding: Casey Golden, Kevin Cron, Ty France, Mariel Bautista, Moises Gomez, Kelvin Gutierrez, Corey Ray, Kevin Smith, Scott Moss & Jean-Carlos Mejia? Thanks.

Ben Carsley: I would not be too concerned about dropping any of those guys, honestly. I'd probably be most inclined to keep Ray thanks to name value/proximity, but I'm not really big on him, either. Also, I know Golden is a Rockie but he's like 90 years old.

Tom Hagen (Hot Stove): Shohei Ohtani, the pitching version and Luis Castillo, which one do you want in 2020? After that?

Ben Carsley: Ohtani for both, but I had to think about it much, much harder than I originally anticipated. I like Castillo quite a bit, but the home park/walk rate bother me.

Vic (Baltimore): Was tricked by a two start promise for Devin Smeltzer. Drop him to get Gallen before someone else does? Limited add/drop league.

Ben Carsley: I'm not going to lie to you -- I had to look up who Devin Smeltzer is. He is safe to drop for pretty much anyone.

Mike (Albany): Fill in the blanks: Brandon Woodruff is the __th best pitcher in baseball at this time next year, because ______

Ben Carsley: 78th, because there are a whole lot of pitchers and because I haven't fully bought in yet. 78th is really not an insult though!

Ben (Chicago ): This Year's Wander Franco? Who jumps up in the rankings?

Ben Carsley: I polled some BP personalities who know way, way more about this than I do at this point, and the names I got probably won't surprise you: Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Alec Thomas. I got Everson Pereira and Brayan Rocchio as sleepers. In terms of two dudes I like, go with Julio Rodriguez and Marco Luciano. Also, look at what Jaren Durran is doing! The real answer, of course, is no one, but that's boring.

Vic (Baltimore): Many pundits were high on Adam Frazier, Chad Pinder, and Austin Barnes this year. I nabbed all 3, but not liking the results. Any hope now thru the end of the year?

Ben Carsley: I’m wrong all the time, so i get it, but ... what pundits were all over Austin Barnes and Chad Pinder, haha? I think those two just are who they are -- fairly bad. I like Frazier the most out of the three, but the ceiling there is like, .270-15-15? It’s just not a very enticing group.

Asimps28 (Minnesota): What are your thoughts on Logan Gilbert so far and where does he fit on top prospect lists???

Ben Carsley: I like him more than I did before the season began, to be sure, but that still makes him only a borderline top-100 prospect. The ceiling just isn’t there for me, and I wouldn’t trust the Mariners to develop a polaroid. This all sounds (puts on sunglasses) negative, but considering Gilbert wasn’t even on the dynasty radar at all before the year began, it’s a solid glow up. Good for you if you bought in early.

brad (BradNJ): who do you like more for fantasy baseball Bart or Madrigal? Do you think Madrigal will develop power?

Ben Carsley: Madrigal by a solid margin. I don't trust catchers and I think Bart's fantasy upside is more solid, Wilson Ramos-ish than anything truly special. I don't know how much power Madrigal will produce beyond 10-or-so homers, but I do think he'll hit .280-plus with 30-plus steals. That'll play.

Tom (Pumpkin Patch): What advice do you have for owners in permanent leagues that have Miguel Andujar on their rosters? Hold or fold?

Ben Carsley: Hold in dynasty, punt in redraft. No point in selling this low on him in multi-year leagues, but there are much better short-term options out there.

Jojo (Sd): You and Craij led me onto the Nomar Mazara train way back when. I think weā€™ve all been underwhelmed. Are you standing by your man to jump another level or two or is this just who he is?

Ben Carsley: He's been a little underwhelming, but he's also still only 24. That being said, I think I'm only expecting one step up now, and not the sort of accession to near-stardom I saw coming a year or two ago. We definitely oversold him a little bit, but if "disappointing" ends up looking something like .275 with 25 homers for a decade it's really not much of a miss?

Mike (Milwaukee): In my dynasty league, I could use a long-term CF as I'm currently deploying Harper in the 8 spot and next year I can probably deploy Gallo there and Harper back to RF. But with the dearth of LF options, I need Gallo there. Starling Marte is available in my 20-team dynasty (his owner has Trout). I have plenty of young pitching )Ian Anderson, Jesus Luzardo, Alex Reyes, Dustin May, Chris Paddack), and some more seasoned pitching (Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer). If I offered Luzardo, you think that's a fair offer to fill my OF?

Ben Carsley: I feel like most Luzardo owners would think this is too rich and most Marte owners would think this isn't rich enough, which means it's probably about right. You can't trust Marte to play in more than 120 games and he's on the wrong side of 30, but Luzardo is a pitcher with arm injuries. Risks abound.

Keaton O. DeRocher (@TheSpokenKeats): Hi - can I please get a baconator, medium combo, and a chocolate frosty?

Ben Carsley: Sir, this is a Popeye's

Ben Carsley: And that's a wrap for tonight. Thanks for your questions, and thanks to anyone who's sent good thoughts or prayers to David Ortiz. The world needs more Big Papi. Be good to each other.