Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday May 10, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark Barry is an author on Baseball Prospectus' fantasy team and has overcome his two-first-name affliction to be a productive member of society.

Mark Barry: As The Joker said in the classic film, The Dark Knight, "Let's chat about baseball."

balticwolf (Bethesda MD): Mark: love your intro about 2 first names! I'm in a 16 team 12 keeper pts. league and I'll need some good OF prospects soon. I already have Jesus Sanchez on my prospect bench. Hicks and Robles are keeper type OFs for me. Are there any prospect OFs flying under the radar for you? Thanks for the chats. Btw: Valera is already taken.

Mark Barry: Never trust someone with 2 first names.

I'm not sure how under-the-radar they are, but I like Tirso Ornelas a lot. And Julio Rodriguez in Seattle (although he's currently hurt). Kyle Isbel is another guy that's probably slept on, but probably not for much longer. Also keep an eye on D'Shawn Knowles for the Angels.

Elton (Pacific Northwest): I'm a big fan of leadership in players. Good players perform, but great players listen and lead. What do you think about leadership?

Mark Barry: I'm pro leadership.

Vic (Baltimore): Trevor Story for Verlander?

Mark Barry: Wow, that's really close. At the risk of copping out and saying it depends on your roster construction, it kinda depends on your roster construction. I think I still lean Story, especially in dynasty/keeper leagues, but I could understand grabbing Verlander in redraft, as he's one of the few SPs I feel great about.

Chansen8895 (San Jose): Is there something wrong with Bauer? Should I panic yet?

Mark Barry: Nah, he'll be fine as long as he's healthy.

DDriesen (NYC): Any clue/rumor when Craig Kimbrel may sign with someone? Very much regretting drafting him this year and hope to salvage some stats soon...

Mark Barry: If I had to guess, he'll sign pretty quickly after the draft next month. Gotta save those 2nd round picks!

glworld (Hawaii): Any thoughts on James Karinchak? should i be excited? Stats are crazy but how talented is this guy and how major league ready?

Mark Barry: He's striking out 75 percent of dudes he has faced so far, which I think is good.

Jarrett wrote a really good piece about scouting that featured Karinchak, that I'd recommend checking out. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/48838/guarding-the-lines-grading-on-a-fastball-and-a-curve/

The Indians bullpen (and rotation and lineup) is such a mess, I can't imagine we don't see him in the 2nd half.

balticwolf (Bethesda MD): Hey Mark: Somebody in my keeper fantasy league offered me Tatis and Julio Rodriguez for Corey Seager. I'm in full rebuild mode. Should I pull the trigger? Love your chats. Thanks. btw: he also wanted Nate Pearson too, but I said no.

Mark Barry: You get Tatis and Rodriguez? Yes, I would do that pretty quickly.

Phillip (Oxford): Is Machado just more of a fringe top 10 3b now that he's in San Diego?

Mark Barry: No, he's still one of the handful of guys you'd want at 3B. It's a really deep position though, so maybe San Diego bumps him to like 3-4 as opposed to 2.

Adam (Durham): Is German Marquez a top 20, top 16, or top 12 pitcher? Second question, is Marquez the greatest Rockies pitcher ever? If not, who?

Mark Barry: Top 25, maybe? With room for more? He's got a 5.87 ERA at home and dudes are hitting .330/.362./536 against him. It was *a little* better last season, but not by much. It's hard to go a lot higher if he's basically a road streamer, which is tough to say, because I do like him.

As for the best pitcher in Rockies history...(*whispers*) It might be Ubaldo.

Loria (Milwaukee ): Deep dynasty (500+ rostered), 20 teams. Which side of this trade u prefer: A: Vladito, Robles, Buehler B: Arenado, Harper, Cole?

Mark Barry: Wow. I understand the desire to get younger, but I'm still rolling with the Arenado/Harper/Cole side.

Frederick (The Keys): Is Zac Gallen stash worthy?

Mark Barry: Absolutely.

Esteban (New York): Zac Gallen is absolutely dominating this year, throwing all four plus-plus pitches and more or less just Paddack-ing the minors. How soon before he gets the call?

Mark Barry: Let's hit the Gallen questions together. He's going to need an injury to make the leap, I think. Although Alcantara and Urena haven't really been particularly good. Their rotation is pretty fun.

Vic (Baltimore): Nicky Lopez has a mere 4 Ks in more than 100 ABs. Mountcastle also playing well. Will they be up soon?

Mark Barry: I'm a sucker for guys like Lopez. I love the contact profile and think the use of the MLB ball will unlock *some* power so he's not a zero there. I'm a fan.

I like Mountcastle less. He doesn't walk much and doesn't really have a defensive position, although I guess that matters less in Baltimore than pretty much anywhere else.

Reggie (Kennethville): Is Jerad Eickhoff a fantasy anchor?

Mark Barry: I think anchor might be a little strong, but I really like the way he's pitched so far this season. That curveball is a little piece of filth.

jwise224 (PDX): Who's a non-superstar that you love to watch and why?

Mark Barry: I love Carlos Santana. Indians catcher was my default favorite guy back to the days of Sandy Alomar and Einar Diaz. Needless to say, I was a fan of the move to bring him back.

Rob (Alaska): I am curious what you think Mac Williamson is now. I drafted him in a 15-team dynasty with hopes for upside and was really surprised he got demoted and DFA'd (and SF brought in other veteran OF). Now that he's back up, what's the prognosis for PT and production?

Mark Barry: I liked Williamson when he got the call last season, before he smashed his head into the wall in foul territory trying to make a catch. He just couldn't really make it back. I think he'll get on base and hit for a little power, hopefully staying healthy.

Dovahkiin (Whiterun): Chris Sale and Kris Bryant are showing signs of returning to form. Are there any buy low candidates you'd be trying to acquire?

Mark Barry: I wrote about Jose Ramirez this week. I don't really know what has happened to him, but all the underlying numbers are really similar to back when he was one of the best hitters in the league. I'm still (relatively) optimistic. I'll take all the Vladito panic shares and I'm picking Chris Taylor back up.

Jessica (Burlington): What do you make of Alex Reyes going forward for fantasy purposes?

Mark Barry: It's really hard to say. He was really, really bad in an admittedly short big-league stint earlier this season. If he's healthy, he's a star, and I still believe that. Whether we get anything resembling consistent health is something else, though.

Vic (Baltimore): Should I be holding F Barreto in a keeper? Does he likely provide value this season?

Mark Barry: I'm pretty bummed about Barreto, although I'm sure not as much as our pal, Ben Carsley.

He hasn't gotten anything really close to a shot at everyday reps, so it's hard to write him off completely, but I think he's about to be (or already has been) passed by Jorge Mateo in the org depth chart, so I'm worried.

Kevin (Chanahon): How excited should I be about Clarke Schmidt?

Mark Barry: I would never dream of telling you how to feel. Personally, I'm interested, but would like to see how he does in Double A, especially since he's already 23 years old.

Elton (Pacific Northwest): Hi Mark. Dynasty question for you. I've been building my team for several years hoping to finally contend this year but I've now lost my three best pitchers (Eovaldi, Rodon, Shoemaker). I do still have Chris Bassitt and Shelby Miller though. Do you think I can turn it around and win big in 2019?

Mark Barry: Hey Elton, I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, but if you have to rely on Shelby Miller as a rotation option, I think you might be in trouble. Sorry.

Derek (Ohio): Is Joey Votto really on the hall of fame track? Everyone says so, but as a first basemen with only 1,755 hits and 272 home runs, and at 35 years of age his best years seem behind him. thoughts?

Mark Barry: He's over 50 WARP already, so he'd need to significantly plummet to take himself out of the conversation. I'm less concerned with the hits/homers volume. I think by the time Votto is eligible, a lot of the electorate will be the types that will really value his type of production.

Chansen8895 (San jose): Is Votto done? Batted ball stuff looks fine other than him popping out at a high rate for the first time in his career. Do you think it reasonable to expect him to still hit .280+ with 20+ HRs

Mark Barry: Pairing the Votto questions together. I don't think he's done, but I'm more worried than I'd like to be. I think .280 is probably a stretch this season, as it took a crazy second half for him to reach that mark last season, but I could see 20 homers.

Kennedy (Felix): Can I set and forget Griffin Canning in my lineup ROS?

Mark Barry: All the swinging strikes are pretty exciting, that's for sure. I think you can set and forget him at least until he starts facing teams for the second time. Even then, he's still good, just maybe not *this* good.

Carlos (Vermont): Is Tyler Ivey the next big Astros pitching prospect?

Mark Barry: I think I like Jairo Solis a little better just based on pure upside, but Ivey is older and closer, so I guess he could be next if we're going chronologically.

tallahassee (Chatham, NJ): Is A.J. Minter poison the rest of the way? I’m desperate for saves, but the ratios are so bad...

Mark Barry: Luke Jackson has gotten the last two save chances, so I think your concerns are shared in Atlanta. I'm not sure he's ever going to be a WHIP guy, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Braves aren't in play for Kimbrel. I'd be ok with moving on.

Freddy (Elm Street): Is Mazara finished?

Mark Barry: Mazara is 24 years old. I think he's fine. He's another guy I'd expect more from based on the peripherals.

Kyle (Seattle): Luis Garcia (the Nats one) climbed up a bunch of lists over the offseason. And I know scouting the statline is bad. But he was getting hyped to a degree where you'd expect SOME monster stats, yet his pre-2019 numbers are pedestrian and he's been awful this year. Am I missing something here?

Mark Barry: I don't think you're missing anything. Even in our preseason Top-10 list for the Nats, it wasn't evident that he was a thing outside of looks from other scouts. Seems like a lot is based on potential and projection, which often times isn't really there until it's there.

Andrew (Jersey): Does Jesus Aguilar keep the starting Brewers 1B job for the season? What are you projecting from him?

Mark Barry: I'm not sure he has sole custody of the job right now. Eric Thames has been getting a bulk of starts there against righties, so Aguilar is going to need to keep hitting if he wants to keep playing.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Nick Madrigal seems to be having an uneven year in high A ball--good onbase, no power. Any additional info on him you can share?

Mark Barry: The power output isn't ideal, but he's still got a good ideal at the plate and I think he'll run. I'm not worried. I think we're still looking at a solid average and double digit homers/steals when it's all said and done.

Kenneth (Lenny'sville): Is Hunter Dozier a fantasy star?

Mark Barry: Man, it sure looks like it. I don't remember where I heard it, but it feels reminiscent of the Tommy Pham breakout where all of a sudden you just have a dude with elite plate skills that finally gets a chance. I don't think Dozier leads the league in hitting at season's end, but he's real.

Hans (Chicago): Is Yoan Moncada breaking out this year?

Mark Barry: Yes, yes, 1000x yes.

Adam (Durham): Explain Joe Musgrove and why we should buy in and/or sell off.

Mark Barry: I'd love to dig into it a little deeper, but at a glance, it looks like his velocity is way down and guys aren't whiffing against his change/curve as much as they did last season. I'm a little concerned, but I don't know if you can sell coming off last night's start.

Lenny (Tulip in the jungle): Would you rather have Jake Bauers or Mazara in fantasy?

Mark Barry: That's really close. I slightly lean Mazara, but would sure love both to hit for a little more power.

Shawn (Vegas): I play in a dynasty league without salaries and I'm just perplexed why I can't get trades done. If I offer up good players over the age of 30, I'm told they're too old and can't get even a marginal prospect for them. If I shop my prospects (and I've got good ones), I get told by the same teams that don't want the 30+ guys that prospects don't help them win now. Is this common in dynasty leagues, that only 25-28 year old superstars have any value what so ever?

Mark Barry: It's a league-to-league dynamic, but this happens way more than makes sense.

Dan (CA): Hudson Potts has been hot lately after a slow start. Still just 20 and at AA but hopelessly blocked at the big leagues in SD. Is he an obvious trade target, and what do you think his ceiling is?

Mark Barry: I'm guessing the Padres would like to see him strike out a little less to feel good about promoting him, but he's definitely gotten better as the season has progressed. Feels like he's a "wait and see" guy, but I'm sure they wouldn't hesitate flipping him for something that could help this season.

Chansen8895 (San Jose): At what point are DRA and cFIP useful to look at in the season?

Mark Barry: I always like using DRA and cFIP, personally, but like with most stats, the more sample the better. It's one component of many to keep an eye on.

Vic (Baltimore): Will Hunter Strickland resume closing duties for the last half of the season?

Mark Barry: He had an ERA close to 12.00 before hitting the DL, so I'm not sure the Mariners will be falling all over themselves to get him back into the ninth inning (yeah it was three outings, but still). I kinda like Brandon Brennan fwiw

Butch (Blue Island): Is Vogelbach legit?

Mark Barry: Sure felt more legit last month at this time, huh?

I think ultimately Vogey is around what his current season statline is - he's going to walk a lot, strikeout a little more than you'd like, and hit .250/.365/.500 ish.

Elliot (Cumberland): I'm a huge Mariners fan. Is Logan Gilbert the type of arm that can fast track to MLB and have success there?

Mark Barry: I hate to keep saying stuff like this, but I'd like to see a little more from a college guy. If he keeps striking guys out in Double A, I'll be more interested.

Kelly (Florida): Is Ozzie Albies a star?

Mark Barry: I think Albies is very good, and has the capability to be a star, if he can be, let's say, 28 percent less streaky.

Sam (Logan Square): Is Dwight Smith a poor man's Michael Brantley?

Mark Barry: Brantley is an elite elite contact guy that swings and misses less than four percent of the time. Smith is at like 3x that number. Smith is an interesting power/speed guy, but I'm not sure I see the Brantley comp.

Dan (CA): Is Justin Dunn up in the big leagues later this year if Seattle is in contention?

Mark Barry: I think that might be a little aggressive, but it's possible, like you said, if the Mariners are still in contention. It will be telling to see how that Mariners monitor his innings (he tossed a little less than 140 last season) - that could be indicative of their summer plans in Seattle.

Eugene (Monroe): Who are your top 10 dynasty hitting prospects right now?

Mark Barry: For guys that haven't debuted yet, I'll say: Wander Franco, Keston Hiura, Kyle Tucker, Jo Adell, Alex Kiriloff, Austin Riley, Taylor Trammell, Brendan Rodgers, Luis Robert and Yordan Alvarez

Kkelly (Mo): Trade ohtani for wander Franco straight up in a keeper league?

Mark Barry: Depends on your contention window, and whether you can make daily moves to use Ohtani as a hitter/pitcher. I think if it's weekly, that decreases Ohtani's value a little, although he's still really good.

Nonnie (Tepid): Is Tyler Mahle a good comp for what Zac Gallen will look like?

Mark Barry: I'm ok with this. I think Gallen might have a little more upside.

Kip (Philly): Was Eloy Jimenez over hyped?

Mark Barry: Nope.

Freida (Wisconsin): Alejandro Kirk is a name I hadn't heard until this year, and he seems particularly impressive as a hitter. If he sticks at catcher, that's something special?

Mark Barry: I don't know a ton about him, but that line looks awfully tasty.

Tommy (Charleston): It looks like your boy Giolito is going to fullfil that promise after all. Agree?

Mark Barry: I like that he's walking fewer guys since coming back from the IL. I hope that continues. The Indians offense is really really bad, so I don't know if we can glean much from that start aside from Giolito having the capabilty to dominate bad teams, which is not nothing.

Fred (Santa Fe): Is Kevin Alcantara a dynasty name to consider?

Mark Barry: Maybe? He's just so young, I don't know what we can make of him. He's probably the proverbial "Two years away from being two years away."

Kristi (Salem): How excited should I be about Jarren Duran? Next Ellsbury?

Mark Barry: I just picked up Duran in a 20-team league and am fairly excited about it. He could be fun. Ellsbury was super good before he wasn't, so that's a lot of hype, but it's something to dream on, sure.

Schmidt (Williamsburg): I play in a really stupid six team league I got roped into. It's for money. Daily transactions. Every day when the first game starts, I just go in and pick up 6-8 of the best probable starters from the next day's games. I've built a gigantic lead of over 1,500 points. To put this in perspective, three teams have less than 2,000 points total. There's no rule against any of this. The other five guys are dummies for not doing the same and this is the easiest money ever, right?

Mark Barry: Eh, I mean it's not technically against the rules, but seems like something that needs to be addressed. It's not wrong, but kinda doesn't feel right.

Mark Barry: I think that'll do it for today. Solid effort from everyone, I thoroughly enjoyed myself. Hope everyone has a great weekend!