Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday May 20, 2019 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey Paternostro is the Lead Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus and in desperate need of a haircut.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Going to start a little early because this will be a short one since I have some stuff to do before heading out to see Casey Mize. Just got back from Bingo/Trenton and some NJ prep stuff if you want to tailor your questions to something other than highly specific dynasty fare.

slappy123 (Charlotte, NC): I'm in a 16-team dynasty, salary cap league, H2H 14 categories, with 50 milb rosters. I have grabbed a bunch of call-ups this year including Josh Fuentes, Bryan Reynolds, Ty France, Kelvin Gutierrez and Luis Rengifo.Any here I should sign to a rookie contract when he hits his rookie minimums? Christian Walker just hit his minimums and I inked him to a rookie deal. Will I regret it or is he for real? thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ah well. Rengifo is the best combination of talent/path to consistent playing time here. Walker I am not complete sold on but I always wait as long as I can on overaged breakout corner dudes.

Dave (Charlestown ): Who will be home run leader this year? How many?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Yelich cools off a little which allows Bellinger or Gallo to sneak in. Assuming they don’t change the ball again let’s say 51. Will be a lot of guys with 40+ I’d bet.

Dusty (Colorado): Are you regretting your Wander Javier rank and write up yet? Seems like it's going to look pretty silly.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The most shocking heel turn since Bash at the Beach

Peter (HOU): When Yordan Alvarez comes up, is he an everyday player? Has that been Houston's hesitancy in promoting him, that they don't have a spot?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So when we do MLB ETAs and what not we are just broadly guessing on when the profile will be properly seasoned. When they actually get called up tends to be based on team need, especially for the non-elite tier of guys. Astros have also had this issue with Kyle Tucker, and although he hasn’t forced the issue to the same degree as Yordan, if there isn’t a real spot for him on a competitive team, there’s not a ton of developmental or overall value in calling him up as a bench piece. Now there is a good chance he’s better than Gurriel but the Astros have seemed hesitant to make him a first baseman, so until that changes...

Dany (NY): Is Jarred Kelenic gonna make me wanna kill myself in 3 years

Jeffrey Paternostro: Look it’s not gonna make it that much worse than just being a Mets fan, like percentage wise

Mike (NY): Why do you need a haircut, why not grow it out like Thor...

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig is gonna be disappointed at BP Citi day. (Also while my hairline is not in the best shape of its life anymore it’s mot nearly that bad)

Kegin (Jacksonville): Is Lucas Giolito for real?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I’m not getting sucked in again. Not for a good long while

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Jazz Chisholm is off to an uneven start this year. Anything you can share on him so far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The approach was always gonna get tested at Double-A and he’s going to have to make adjustments. The power still playing I keeps me optimistic, as does his relative age and the strong SS glove.

Nonnie (Moke): This site hasn't tracked Luis Patino much. Late night Cal League games the culprit?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Fortunately we have four writers on the Cal League. He’ll be a target for looks as we head into Midseason 50 time.

Jonathan (Orlando): Stanton is rehabbing at High-A starting today. Do you ever take anything away from a MiLB pitcher of note facing a certified major leaguer?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So funnily enough I saw Jason Vargas rehabbing yesterday, and Jarrett Seidler will have some thoughts on seeing rehabbing guys in his column this week. Broadly speaking though, these guys are just getting their work in, and you are cutting one game looks even smaller. Plenty of times I have seen the minor leaguers hulk up so do speak when they get a shot at the big leaguers though.

Teddy (Chicago): Stevie Wilkerson a good stream this week? 4 games in Camden, 3 in Coors.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It’s always nice to keep the Orioles involved in these chats when you can. Anyway, I wonder what your other options are before running out a 23:1 K:BB bat.

Erica (Tacoma): I don't get the Wander Javier thing. I keep seeing stuff about he's a "generational prospect" but he's not on many list. What gives?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A new fighter has entered the arena

Mike (NY): Any notable prospects on Trenton Yankees AA team, may go see them this weekend.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Arms are interesting. I missed Deivi by a day, but reports have been good. (Somehow I also missed Kay, Harol, and Peterson in a four game set, figure that one out). Albert Abreu looks like a Top 101 guy again. Rony Garcia and Whitlock are major league caliber arms, albeit probably pen guys in the end.

jcoan59 (Jersey Shore): So is Mickey fired before or after tonight's game?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I’m just excited to see if the Mets can make more of a hash of this than the Art Howe and Willie Randolph firings. I will not bet against them ever.

Alex (Austin): Should we be worried about Luis Garcia (WAS)? Was Washington just too aggressive pushing him to AA?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I only got a short look at him, but he looked fine? At least I will say there was not as obvious a culprit for his struggles as I saw with Andres Gimenez. I will be writing about this stuff this week.

jcoan59 (Jersey Shore): How did Jack Leiter look?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He’s a very good pitching prospect. Jarrett has multiple looks and will be taking the eyewitness. He liked him a little more than I did, but I also got a shakier command outing. It’s an unusual prep profile, but I’d probably submit him as a 55 and target him late first. I suspect someone out there likes him more and hits his number. I’d be a bit more hesitant to work my draft around him. There’s also a scenario where he goes to Vandy and comes out in two years as a slam dunk top five pick.

Scott (AZ): Kristian Robinson next big prospect? If not him in the low minors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He’s as good a bet as any

BC (Fort Myers, FL): What's going on with Elehuris Montero? On April 25th, it looks like he fell off the map, Google-wise.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All I have heard is “nothing major”

edwar288 (Minneapolis): How much of Jorge Mateo's and Yordan Alvarez's success at AAA be credited to the new baseball? What sort of numbers should we expect from each if they are called up in June or July of this year (and is that call up timeline probable)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So we have more of a track record of Alvarez doing this than Mateo. Mateo is also on his second pass of the league, so context matters here. But it’s a general issue yes, although perhaps it’s more accurate information if it matches the major league ball. There’s not enough actionable information here yet honestly, and we have no idea if the baseballs will end up somewhere else on the continuum of “within specifications” next year or even in the second half.

Hopeful Reds Fan (CIN): Mariel Bautista had a really glowing report here. Got any thoughts?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not beyond what Keith wrote. He’s got the games behind home plate on him.

Stephen (Spokane): 16-team dynasty points league. How many pitchers are there that you'd trade Fernando Tatis Jr straight up for? If the list is short enough, name them?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can’t think of one unless you absolutely need a pitcher now to win, and even then...

Pete (Stockton): Are we encouraged by Blaze Alexander's start to 2019?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. And Forest should be on Kane later this Summer so curious to see what he has on both him and Alek Thomas

Lennie (North side): Can Just Soto hit anything other than a fastball? Did we all miss that in his rapid ascent?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He’s a ten percent better than league average hitter at 20 and it’s considered a crisis. I am not all that concerned.

Scott (CT): Who's this Year's Wander Franco - Jumps up in the rankings big time

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is unknowable until it happens, but your best candidates haven’t changed. George Valera, Marco Luciano, D’Shawn Knowles

jcoan59 (Jersey Shore): How entertaining from a non GOT fan is Jarrett & Liam's segment on this week's pod?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you think I am doing more than balancing the audio on this...

Jeffrey Paternostro: Apologies again for the short one. Feel free to bug Craig about the rest.