Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Scott Delp

Chat: Scott Delp

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday April 19, 2019 6:00 PM ET chat session with Scott Delp.

Scott Delp is a fantasy writer at Baseball Prospectus.

Scott Delp: Looking forward to spending some time taking your questions tonight. Welcome!

Barry (New York): Points league, forever keeper, H2H... -1 for strikeouts. Am I crazy to not accept his Aaron Judge for my Wander Franco yet?

Scott Delp: I went with this one first to highlight the idea that every decision like this comes with a lot of context. Your contention window, your basic philosophy regarding prospects and your roster composition before and after are all considerations in any fantasy deal. Having said that, Franco just turned 18 less than 2 months ago and he is in full-season ball already. Though he has gotten off to a 'slow' start, he is by no means overmatched. He has a chance to be very special and I'd hold him unless dealing him made the difference between a championship and just another finish...

Matt (My desk): How do you think Kris Bryant fairs the rest of season? Would you look to move him in a dynasty league if you have a glut of other CIs?

Scott Delp: PECOTA has him being quite productive ROS. The slow start, coupled with his struggles in 2018 make me wonder if the shoulder is still at least a bit of a problem. If I could play up the PECOTA projection and get something on par with that in return, I'd definitely be looking to deal from strength there.

Tim (SJC): Do you have a preference on a site to use for fantasy baseball? My leagues are all over the place - Fantrax, ESPN and Yahoo, but I'm losing my faith in ESPN and their user experience. Thoughts?

Scott Delp: I admit to being old enough that I've played leagues on every platform in the known universe. I think I'd prefer CBS or Fantrax, depending on which factors are more important to you. Fantrax would have a slight edge for dynasty leagues because of the depth of their player pool. CBS seems like the most versatile and reliable, though their information can be off (starting pitchers are often wrong, even the day before).

Dan (Chicago): Jasson Dominguez the real deal? Next Big Time Prospect?

Scott Delp: No. He looks like the top of the J2 heap and the rumored deal is going to be for $5M+, but it's likely that there will be several next big things between now and the time his turn comes. He's 16 and there is a lot to go through to get to knowing just what he can be.

Vic (Baltimore): Cain for Taillon? I get the pitcher. This is a fair offer, correct?

Scott Delp: Again, the context makes a difference. If you have outfield depth to spare, this is a reasonable exchange. Cain is a four category player, depending on your format while Taillon isn't elite in Ks or ERA. Cain's steals make him the better fantasy asset, but if your team can make up that deficit in other ways, Taillon is a good way to shore up your pitching.

Vic (Baltimore): If deGrom is seriously hurt, I'll need pitching help. Which OFs should I offer? Please pick two. Cain, McCutchen, Dahl.

Scott Delp: First, don't overreact. All three of those players have some fantasy juice. I'd rank them Cain, Dahl, Cutch, but Cutch is the only one I'd likely not regret dealing.

Vic (Baltimore): Wainwright, Odorizzi, Turnbull from the waiver wire? All? None?

Scott Delp: How desperate are you? Wainwright will likely be the more consistent, until he gets hurt again. Odorizzi is what he is. High pitch counts, too many walks, but he will strike some guys out and he's durable. Turnbull has a spotty track record and seems to be getting by almost exclusively on his slider right now. Waino might be best of the choices if you need someone.

Craig (CT): Should I be picking up Adley Rutschman in my dynasty league ASAP?

Scott Delp: There is plenty to like about this year's potential 1.1 and he would not be a bad guy to have. Being a catcher, though, leaves you with two main issues. If he is going to catch, there is a chance that slows down his charge through the minors (Joey Bart started this season in High-A). If he moves off the position, the bats gets a lot more pressure put on it.

Bart (Minnesota ): 14 team, H2H points, dynasty league... in a vacuum who wins: Jack Flaherty for Austin Meadows?

Scott Delp: Other than the absolute elite starters, I'm always going to go with offense over pitching. I do like Flaherty's upside. Inside that vacuum and based on performance so far, I'd be looking to get a bit more in return along with Flaherty if I were dealing Meadows.

Roger (Milwaukee ): Vacuum keeper league... Flaherty for Meadows.

Scott Delp: See last answer...

Matt (MSP): Thoughts on Charlie Blackmon's slow start? Could you give some starters and first basemen that you target to receive in a trade for him? Thanks!

Scott Delp: Blackmon's decline began last season so it might be tough to get value in return from other perceptive fantasy owners. That makes it tricky in that you have to try to get a good player while not making it appear you're selling low. I think Josh Bell has some more upside so he might be a target. Ji-Man Choi is another option. On the pitching side, It is getting late to jump on the Luke Weaver train, but there should still be time. I like Pablo Lopez' upside as well.

pro golfer Nacho Elvira (Madrid): Thanks for the chat, Scott! Can you tell me anything about a pair of up-the-middle 18-year-olds currently mauling up A-ball pitchers? Jonathan Ornelas and Ivan Herrera both have excellent pre-2019 track records, and are hitting for both average and power in the Sally and Midwest Leagues, respectively. Thanks again!

Scott Delp: Both are definitely intriguing. Right now, they are just guys to watch as they are both striking out at rates above 30% in their first taste of full-season. I'd want to see if they can get that number under control a bit more or find a way to be consistently productive with that much swing and miss.

Vic (Baltimore): Rather desperate in the pitching department....my hitting is deep and solid even with Ohtani, Upton, and Andujar hurt. Jose Quintana is my 2nd best pitcher, 3rd best would be Trevor Williams.

Scott Delp: Then Waino should help for now. Odorizzi might be a streaming option against teams that might be more susceptible to his high fastball approach.

Race Bannon (On the beach, with Jade): Thanks for your time today, Scott. In AA at age 20, Dylan Carlson has lowered his strikeout rate to 13.6% so far, while simultaneously showing more power than ever (isolated slugging .232). Does the young switch-hitter have elite, Kirillovian upside at the plate?

Scott Delp: Let's not get too far out there...Carlson is an interesting guy. I wasn't much concerned about the strikeouts even before he improved. An 18% mark in High-A for a 19 year old is actually pretty solid. Improving it in the jump to Double-A is something to look at. He's a switch-hitter and the power, as you said (well, at least the gap type) emerging. I like what he is doing, but his hit tool more than a full grade behind Kiriloff's.

Amanda Hugnkiss (Springfield): Happy Friday, Scott! Can you tell me anything about Lars Nootbaar? I realize he's a bit old for Low-A, but he's striking out less than 10% of the time while slugging over .600 so far -- high power/low K's is usually a harbinger of future hitting success, right?. I recall that he was better in college as a soph than a junior. Was he hurt in his last year, and is that why he fell to the 8th round of the draft? Good longshot play? Thanks much, Scott.

Scott Delp: Small sample size so far so I would not get too excited. Nootbaar has some skills, but he has always been more of a singles hitter. He has more homers so far this season than doubles so it's just variance, most likely. He did take a small step back in his senior year, but not due to injury that I know of. He didn't hit particularly well in the 2017 Cape League so that probably contributed to his draft standing as well.

Vic (Baltimore): Drafted J Up the night before his turf toe. Oh well. Is June the earliest that he'll return value?

Scott Delp: The lates is that the boot comes off next week. Yes, late May to early June looks about right.

Vic (Baltimore): Should I wait until next month to drop Trevor?

Scott Delp: Williams? I would not be dropping him at all...

Rocky (Los Angeles ): Excluding anyone in the majors currently and also Vladdy dadi... give me your top 5 prospects of your choice to start a dynasty with.

Scott Delp: I'll stick to guys I've seen, however briefly. Hitters would be Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Nick Madrigal. All are young, have very advanced hit tools and really understand the strike zone. Pitchers would be Mitch Keller, Brusdar Graterol and Ian Anderson. They each already have the requisite pitches and enough command of each to have pretty high floors and the chance to be great fantasy starters.

Marcus (Toronto): Besides Wander Franco... Who would you top 5 A-ball or lower prospects be... looking to target some in my dynasty league.

Scott Delp: Top 5? I'm not much of a ranker. I'm more of a grouper. Especially at the lower levels there is so much variance. I like Mets' SS Ronny Mauricio, Indians' MI Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland pitcher Luis Oviedo, Pirates' OF Lolo Sanchez, Brewers' MI Felix Valerio and Yankees' pitcher Roansy Contreras.

Harold (Boston ): Lot of stud SPs hurt or sucking... give me three to target a buy low on!

Scott Delp: Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver and Pablo Lopez

Asimps28 (Rochester): What are your thoughts on Ian Happ moving forward??

Scott Delp: Given what he's doing in AAA so far, he does not seem to have learned much from his demotion. A lot of people focused on his power in a utility role, but he just has too much swing and miss and MLB pitchers will exploit that. He hit under .200 with just four homers in the second half last season and he is just brutal defensively. That's the opposite of what you want in a utility player you want to use on a regular basis. I would not drop him quite yet unless I absolutely needed the roster spot, but I would not hold out all that much longer either.

Vic (Baltimore): Trevor May. I was just being clever.

Scott Delp: Unless saves are useful, you can drop him now. The Minnesota pen is in some flux, but May seems down the pecking order.

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier, what's his upside?

Scott Delp: End as we usually do...let's let him get back on the field. It's hard to evaluate a guy who hasn't played in 18 months.

Scott Delp: That looks like a wrap. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. Thanks for all the great questions. Hope to be back again soon...