Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday March 15, 2019 4:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark Barry is a fantasy writer at Baseball Prospectus.

Mark Barry: Hello everyone. Let's do a chat.

Chris (Parts Unknown): Is Jharel Cotton worth rostering in an IR spot this season?

Mark Barry: As always, it depends who else might need the spot, but I wouldn't expect much from Cotton this season. He had TJS in March last year, so I'm guessing he's out until at least the All Star break.

boatman44 (Liverpool): Who do you have in a 24 team 20 keeper dynasty league Jake Junis or Ronald Guzman? in a 10x10 category including fielding percent. Have too pick one.Cheers Mark

Mark Barry: I think I'm the low guy, so I'd take Guzman by default, but I do like Guzman a little this year as a guy who should significantly improve last season's numbers. Good luck down the stretch with the title chase!

sportsguy21792 (Cube by the window): Mark-What am I missing when I look at Austin Barnes 4.0 WARP on the team page?

Mark Barry: That does stand out a bit, doesn't it? Barnes was an awesome defender in a backup role in 2017, and was worth 3.5 WARP that season, so I'd imagine a lot of those defensive numbers are baked into the 4.0.

Nick (North Carolina): My favorite prospect is Red Sox wunderkind Trey Ball. Tell me more about TreyBae.

Mark Barry: I'm sort of interested to see what happens with him now that he's shifting into a role as a two-way player. I don't think it could get *worse*, right?

Jim (Third barstool in Chief O'Neill's): How excited should I be over Matt Strahm?

Mark Barry: As excited as you are (and you should be excited), I don't think it could be half as excited as the fantasy community. Between him and Chris Paddack, those Padres hurlers are soaring up draft boards.

Bobby Ray (‘Merica): How do you do Mark. Question regarding two prospects in Jazz Chisholm & Bubba Thompson. In a vacuum do you prefer one over the other or are the nearly equal to you for fantasy?

Mark Barry: I think they're both pretty exciting, but gimme Jazz.

Vic (Baltimore): If I start with a Sale and Taillon front end 15 team 5 x 5 pitching staff, can I wait until Round 20 plus for the other 5 starters? I would scoop up two closers between the Taillon pick and Round 20. What would be some options? Strahm, Lopez from the Marlins?

Mark Barry: Man, neither one of those guys has been the picture of health, so I think that would be awfully risky to wait that long for rotation depth. As far as late round guys you could nab, I like Trevor Cahill, Aaron Sanchez and Yonny Chirinos an awful lot for their ADP.

Gary Mack (in the back): I have next pick, I want one of these guys - Paddack, who has me high as a kite, or Mize who in some minor league camp somewhere in a world - who do you take?

Mark Barry: Paddack will definitely help you sooner.

sportsguy21792 (Cube by the window): Since you are a Scoresheet guy our NL league allows for one AL guy to be drafted for a single season. Some years we have more pitchers drafted but last year it favored position players with Trout and Mookie leading the way. Suspect it will swing back to AL pitcher this year. Sale and Kluber will go first but after that do you like Verlander, Cole, Snell or Carrasco for 2019?

Mark Barry: Our Scoresheet draft aid has Carrasco as the 5th best SP per SSSIM, ahead of Kluber even. Maybe it's a hot take, but I'll roll with Cookie, then Cole, Snell and Verlander.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/scoresheet/draftaid/

awg (brooklyn): narvaez or barnhart? Both seem like they could have a decent OBP.

Mark Barry: Even though the Mariners don't really have a good alternative, I feel like Barnhart is safer for playing time, so I'll take Tucker.

Dan Levitan (Saigon): Out of the following potential 3/4 starters, what order would your top 3 be based on upside and potential to actually achieve it? T. Santillan, L. Patino, E. Pardinho, A. Medina, S. Howard, B. Graterol, G. Canning, B. Wilson, and L. Oviedo.

Mark Barry: I like Bryse Wilson a lot and think we could hear from him this season. As far as the top 3 I'll go Wilson, Graterol and Canning.

Wesley (San Jose): What's Ichiro's fantasy projection for next week's Japan series?

Mark Barry: I project 20.5 professional nods to the crowd, 4-5 waves and 3 solid hat tips. It's super cool that he's going to be able to get another run with the Mariners, and in Japan, but I wouldn't expect any offense.

nschaef (NYC): Do you alter your draft approach for a head-to-head categories league (as opposed to, say, year long roto or point)?

Mark Barry: I think I chase less often in H2H categories leagues. You can better afford to more or less punt saves or steals in these leagues, so you don't have to reach for Billy Hamilton or like a third tier closer. That said, I think the dominant offense and bullpen strategy is really fun, as long as you remember to stream pitchers to hit innings limits.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): That giant extension for Eloy is just a bad rumor, right?

Mark Barry: I hadn't heard about it, which doesn't mean it isn't true, but I would guess it's a rumor. It would kind of be hilarious, though.

Flex F Fox (San Diego): Who do you project to make the Marlins rotation?

Mark Barry: I don't like to admit it, but I kinda sorta really like Trevor Richards. He started to strike dudes out down the stretch and had a 3.57 DRA in 126 1/3 innings. Otherwise, I'm guessing Urena, Chen, Straily and then maybe Pablo Lopez until Caleb Smith comes back or Sandy Alcantara is ready?

awg (brooklyn): on pure player value alone in a standard 5x5 dynasty hold forever no cost league, and i know it's apples and oranges: jesus aguilar or german marquez?

Mark Barry: I sorta love Marquez. Gimme all those K's.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Looks like Kyle Lewis might finally be healthy!

Mark Barry: It does. And that would be lovely.

Ryan Neeson (Toronto): I just traded Vidal Brujan for Keibert Ruiz did I make a mistake?

Mark Barry: I feel a little snake bitten by minor league catchers, but Ruiz is one of the better minor-league catching prospects, so I don't think it's a bad move, even if I might not have done it.

Russ (New York): Thoughts on David Bote's adjustments/ progression? Also, is Brandon Lowe a breakout candidate?

Mark Barry: Bote swung and missed a ton last year, and he doesn't really have a place to play. I think he'll need to continue those contact adjustments to be more than a bench bat.

Brandon Lowe is definitely a breakout candidate. Pick any Lowe on the Rays...they could *all* break out!

MauerPower (NJ): Any guess about who might be in best position for the most Vulture Wins?

Mark Barry: Man, it's hard enough projecting wins. Projecting vultured wins seems near impossible. I'd target some teams that have strict TTO limits for their starters like the Rays, A's or Pirates. Let's say, Wilmer Font, Ryne Stanek, Liam Hendriks and Richard Rodriguez.

Vic (Baltimore): 15 Team Mixed 5 x 5 Keeper. I can keep M. Gore in the 29th, 25th, 21st for 2019-2021. Is it worth it? Or, throw him back and try and redraft? 4 yr keeper max. He was drafted in the 33rd last year. I just wonder how much of the next 3 yrs will be at the MLB level. I read he will move fast.

Mark Barry: It's tricky, because this is probably the year we'll find out how quickly he moves. He hasn't been above A ball yet, so it's hard to say. I don't think we'll see him this year, so it's really a 2020/2021 question. I think I toss him back and hold my breath.

boatman44 (Liverpool): Mark, do you like Matt Strahm or David Paulino in a just hold league. I know Strahm is set to be a starter but He is absolutely a better reliever in my opinion whe all is said and done, but will th Fryars see this in time to beat Paulino this season? Thanks for the chat Boyo.

Mark Barry: I guess I'll go with Paulino, just because I don't think Strahm will see any time in the pen. I think he'll be a pretty decent starter this season.

nschaef (NYC): One opinion I've heard re: starting pitchers is that there is essentially a class of 12-15 guys at the top and then nothing appealing until you start looking at late round flyers. Are there any boring ol' tier two pitchers that you like? (e.g. the David Prices of the world).

Mark Barry: I'll always be a sucker for Masahiro Tanaka, who seems to go around that range as well. And I'll be interested to see what Chris Archer does with a full season in Pittsburgh. Looking at ADP though, it does look pretty rough for that middle, though. I'll also take Rick Porcello for volume and Tyler Glasnow for Tyler Glasnow-y reasons.

NL Rules (OKC): Hi Mark - Dominic Smith or Garrett Cooper for 2019? - thanks

Mark Barry: Pass.

No, I guess I'll go Dom Smith, on the off chance he moves around defensively. I would've taken Cooper before the Neil Walker signing.

Dusty (Colorado): Mr. Barry. It's important that you tell me 3 things right away. 1) Your favorite Thanksgiving Side that's OK to eat in March. 2) Meaning of Life 3) Wander Javier's upside. (if time is an issue, please just answer #3)

Mark Barry: I have a lot of thoughts about this. I think it's always ok to eat anything whenever you want, regardless of season. Do you. I might make stuffing this weekend just because I can. Whatever. As far as the meaning of life, I think that's pretty self explanatory. You know.

Oops, sorry, didn't have a chance to get to #3.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Who are some of your "don't draft under any circumstances" players for this year?

Mark Barry: Not really? It's mostly about value, and I realize that's probably a cop-out-ish answer. I don't think I'll end up with any Sale shares, just because I'm scared of his late-season injuries, but I'd take him if he fell to far.

Dante (The Inferno): Thanks for doing this. In a dynasty league vacuum, what are your thoughts on Joshua James and Brussar Graterol? Do you have a strong preference of one or the other?

Mark Barry: I like Joshua James a lot. His spring traning injury was such a bummer. I still think we hear from him fairly quickly, if thinks break right.

George (Earth): Are there prospects you are higher on than Brett & Ben? Also is there a type of prospect profile you are a sucker for?

Mark Barry: Not significantly? I like Luis Urias an awful lot, probably more than the #34 spot that Bret and Ben have him placed. I really like the big contact guys, with a little bit of plate discipline and some flexibility. So pretty much I just described Urias again.

Dave (Boulder): do you prefer David Bote or JD Davis? Thank you

Mark Barry: I think Bote will probably play more this season, albeit still in a bench, super-sub type role.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Any rookie starting pitchers catch your eye for big league success this year?

Mark Barry: I'm trying to grab Jesus Luzardo wherever I can. I think we'll hear from both Forrest Whitley and Joshua James in Houston. Mitch Keller is also a good one, even if there isn't as much upside.

nschaef (NYC): How many PAs does Austin Riley get in 2019

Mark Barry: PECOTA only has him for 47 plate appearances, and I think that might be a bit light. I'll say an even 200. He's only one Josh Donaldson injury away. What could possibly go wrong??

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Are you a Nick Madrigal fan?

Mark Barry: I am. I'd like to see a little more pop, like any pop, but I think this season he'll earn back some of the draft day fans.

Dusty (Colorado ): What's Wander Javier's upside?

Mark Barry: Oops, I guess we do have time for one more.

He could be a stud. Dingers, runs, RBI, you name it. Retired number, a seat on in the Minnesota senate, the Wander Javier Award for Achievement in Upside? It's all in play.

Mark Barry: That's all we have time for today. Thanks everyone for hanging out! Good luck in your leagues, I hope you all win.