Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday February 11, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark is a staff writer on the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team.

Mark Barry: Hello everyone. Let's do a chat.

Dusty (Colorado ): Thoughts on Wander Javier? What's his upside?

Mark Barry: Hi Dusty. I admire your tenacity. I think he's easily the second best Wander in the minor leagues, and could potentially be the second best Wander in the big leagues someday.

Gary (New york): What are your thoughts on Freddy Tarnok? How long before he’s a top 101 guy?

Mark Barry: Admittedly, I didn't know much about Tarnok, other than his name reminds me of the dinosaur hunter dude from the old N64 game. His blurb in the Braves Top 10 sounds pretty interesting, though, and he'll definitely be on my radar now. I have a lot of faith in their development of pitchers, so Top 101 is definitely not out of the question. Here's the link:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/46109/2019-prospects-atlanta-braves-top-10-prospects/

Vic (Baltimore): I am trying to decide on a 2nd round pick in my 15 team keeper. If Freddie or Goldy is available, I am going with them since 1B is a thin position. My question, if both of them are gone, should I consider Rizzo with the 21st overall? Or is that too early? My other option would be to hope for Votto or Abreu in the 4th round since I don't have a 3rd round pick.

Mark Barry: I think 21 overall might be a tad high on Rizzo, his current NFBC ADP has him going around 39th, although that's not factoring in your keepers. I *love* Votto for a monster bounceback this year, though, if you can stand waiting.

sportsguy21792 (Madison, WI): Any chance BP could include a tab showing who the writers are and what their area of specialty is?

Mark Barry: That's an interesting idea. I know clicking on each name will show you past work, which could help get a better sense of everyone's areas of expertise.

Jake (State Farm): In a league that uses saves and holds as one category, who would you rather have: Cody Allen or Jeurys Familia?

Mark Barry: I almost defaulted to Allen before seeing "holds" mentioned. I'll still slightly lean Allen, although I could see the Familia/Diaz 8th/9th inning combo put up some filthy save/hold numbers.

Homer (Springfield): 12-team NL Scoresheet League: What is the value of Khris Davis (2 XO slots per team). I inherited him on a rebuilding team and was offered (roughly) R30 and R32 picks for him.

Mark Barry: Man, Khris might take a bigger hit than anyone in NL scoresheet. That defense...woof. I'd try to squeeze a little more, maybe 28-30, but I always try to do that. His value just takes a hit clogging up LF and an XO.

kalimantan (Uk): Hi, what's the best way to spot that a previously unheralded player is breaking out? At the end if the season we can all see the stats from Merrifield, or Pham, or degrom, or Jose ramirez, but the holy grail is seeing it whilst it's happening, and I'm not so good at that :(

Mark Barry: This is a good question, and it's something I find myself struggling with too. I watch a lot of games, but sometimes it's hard to care about teams 30 games back after 2 months (and exaggeration, but still). I'd recommend keeping an eye on DRC+, seeing if there are any unfamiliar names that are seeing a lot of PT atop the leaderboards. Also I'm a big fan of looking for improvements in walk rate/stolen base attempts.

Jon (Idaho): If the Cleveland Indians were a Premier League team, who would they be, and why?

Mark Barry: Leicester City (minus the championship). All of the good, young players go elsewhere to get paid. Harry Maguire is Corey Kluber.

Eric (Ohio): Why do people like Scoresheet better than roto?

Mark Barry: I've only been at it for a year, but I'm already finding myself spending more time combing through my Scoresheet team roster than other keeper leagues. You can endlessly tinker with lineups and rotations, and the simulations give you instant gratification every Monday. It's a lot of fun. High recommend.

joetigay (Chicago): Hey,In the scoresheet draft aid, how do I add my league?

Mark Barry: Hey Joe, I ran it up the flagpole, and if your league isn't showing up on the drop down box, drop a line to https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/contact.php and the good folks over there will be able to help you out.

Gary Mack (in the back): So I have first pick in my draft - First year players, so we're talking 2018 draftees and J2 guys. Considering India or Larnach - who would you take, and is there someone else I should consider?

Mark Barry: I'd lean Larnach. He's probably my favorite guy of the 2018 draftees. I know Bret loves Nick Madrigal, and I've consulted his list often this offseason. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/45978/dynasty-rankings-the-top-50-signees-from-2018/

Enrique (Cowboy Capital of the World): Assuming costs are roughly the same, please rank keeper options E Andrus, K Marte, M Semien, C Taylor? They'll likely be bench, but may need them at MI. Thanks

Mark Barry: I still don't know why Marte doesn't steal bases, feels like he should. I'll give Taylor the nod, just for the positional flexibility. Then Semien, Marte and Andrus...but they're all bunched really closely together.

EricM (Ohio): Luis Rengifo...will he be able to shed his utility infielder label? 2018 was impressive at a young age across multiple levels.

Mark Barry: I'm not sure utility infielder is as much faint praise as it used to be. It wouldn't shock me to see him get a little run in Anaheim this summer, in kind of a David Fletcher mold. I like Rengifo's future prospects more than Fletcher, though.

nschaef (NYC): PECOTA thinks the Moncada we've seen in his first 900 major league PAs is who he is, and has him pegged to basically repeat last season at .236/.317/.387. Please tell me PECOTA is wrong and why.

Mark Barry: A question after my heart. I've been pretty heavily invested in Moncada, so I've watched a disproportionate amount of his plate appearances. I think he unofficially leads the league in "he got screwed on that strike 2 call, followed by a defensive swing on strike 3". I'm a little concerned that the walks backed up a bit in 2018, but I will forever die on the Moncada hill. Let's say .255/.350/.465 in 2019...please?

Bat Signal Question (Bat Cave): Not a fantasy q, per se, but a BP site functionality question. Is there a page like FG's Custom Teams page (https://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx) where I can input my fantasy team and see all the Pecota #'s in one place?

Mark Barry: There sure is, loyal Bat Signal reader. With our TEAM TRACKER feature you can create/customize as many teams as you have...and we all have lots. Choose "Forecasts" - and you can also tailor the timeframe. I like "Since Monday" for Scoresheet purposes.

Homer (Springfield): Another Scoresheet question [multiple leagues] - when fishing for (probably very) late round relievers, how would you rank Bud Norris, Oliver Perez, Tony Sipp?

Mark Barry: Bud Norris confuses me. And as such, I just refuse to acknowledge how good he's been. Kidding. Sort of. Oliver Perez really got back on track last season, and despite being roughly 48 years old, I love his LOOGY potential in Scoresheet. Sipp too. Just because finding dominant left relievers is tough, I'll say Sipp, Perez, Norris.

nteagle (Colorado): In a 12-Team NL Start-up Draft, which Order would you rank these Players: Goldschmidt, Yelich, Flaherty, Rendon, and Baez. FYI: the SP went first of these Players, in the Draft.

Mark Barry: Wow, Flaherty really went first? I think he's really good and has ace upside, but there's no way I'd take him ahead of the hitters. I'll go Yelich, Rendon, Goldschmidt, Baez and Flaherty.

Eric (Dayton): Is it time to rethink position scarcity a bit with the explosion of talent at shortstop and third base? Granted, it is easier to play 1B still but there is better and more consistent production at shortstop and third base than, maybe ever?

Mark Barry: This is a really good question. I think you're right. SS and 3B are absolutely loaded this season (especially at the top for 3B). After the top 4-5 at 1B, I don't know if I'd be psyched to roster anyone. I don't really like chasing positions, but it could be hard not to take a 1B early this year.

Ryan McMahon (Buried in Colorado): What is going on with Ryan McMahon? The bat seems real. He played 2b,3b, and 1st last year, but how do the Rockies get him into the lineup?

Mark Barry: The Rockies have been good the last few seasons, so I guess it's hard to question their decision making. But also I really question their decision making. McMahon, Tapia and Hampson are all guys that it seems like should get run, but they just haven't. Even Dahl has had difficulty cracking the lineup. I guess this is a roundabout way of saying your guess is as good as mine. RIP future Brendan Rodgers playing time.

Lagniappe (Louisiana): Is DRC+ updated after every game?

Mark Barry: Not quite after every game, but it updated nightly, so that's basically just as good. I'm pretty excited to use DRC+ this season (and I swear I'd still say that if this chat wasn't on BP).

Carmen (Where in the world is Carmen San Diego?): Who is Tucupita Marcano? Keith Law raved about his hit tool this off season, but what does the power and speed look like down the line?

Mark Barry: I scooped him up in a league last season after reading some glowing reviews from our guys. He's got some pretty fun PECOTA comps (Rougned Odor, Gleber Torres, Leody Tavaras). I don't know if he'll ever put up huge power/speed numbers (he doesn't seem to be very efficient on the bases), but he's obviously still super young, so that should improve.

Vic (Baltimore): Please name 5 players outside the Top 100 most likely to be Top 50 in 2020. I am thinking of Peraza and......

Mark Barry: I've been pretty happy with Peraza's progression. Last season was a nice surprise. I'd expect Victor Robles to shoot up this list heading into next season, same goes for Eloy Jimenez. Josh Donaldson is currently 102 per NFBC ADP, so that's another obvious one. A few less heralded names though: Rougned Odor, Amed Rosario, Zack Wheeler and Daniel Murphy in Coors (which is now legally his new name).

Homer (Springfield): Scoresheet question [multiple leagues] - Which prospects on (or should be on) the recently-published Dynasty Prospects list are significantly better for Scoresheet Baseball than for regular Fantasy? Other than "SB guys", which are significantly worse?

Mark Barry: Honestly, I think for Scoresheet leagues, the non-fantasy 101 could be a better translator. With defense and approach key components for Scoresheet success, "glove-first" guys aren't as much of a disaster in Scoresheet as they are in traditional leagues. A guy like Andres Gimenez comes to mind-someone that does a bunch of things well and could ultimately play a few different postions. Luis Rengifo, like we talked about before, is another one. Flexibility is huge.

gpatterson (Illinois): Out of Kristian Robinson and Luis Garcia (WAS), who has the higher upside? Who gets to the majors quicker?

Mark Barry: Both of these guys are pretty exciting, upside wise. I'll say Robinson's ceiling is slightly higher, but Garcia has already tasted High A, so he's closer.

Lagniappe (Louisiana): Not a question: BP's Scoresheet content is excellent.

Mark Barry: Appreciate it! I'm optimistic we'll be able to keep it going, it's so much fun!

Paddy (Ireland): How about some relief pitching love? Who are the top RP's in minor league baseball right now? Also which RP's could come out of nowhere and make a big impact in the Majors? Lovelady? Poche?

Mark Barry: Silvino Bracho is still a guy I look at in Triple A and think he's something. But then he gets called up and proves me wrong. I wish Lovelady struck more guys out, but he should see Kansas City this summer. I'm much more interested in Poche, he probably throws a few too many fly balls, but Tampa is a good spot for that, and he's kind of nasty. If Joshua James gets boxed out of the Houston rotation, he'd be filthy in the pen.

Mark Barry: That's it for today. Hope you had as much fun as I did. Shout to Rob McQuown for helping out with some of the technical questions. Until next time...