Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jarrett Seidler

Chat: Jarrett Seidler

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday December 06, 2018 8:00 PM ET chat session with Jarrett Seidler.

Jarrett is a senior member of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team and co-host of For All You Kids Out There, a Mets-adjacent podcast.

Jarrett Seidler: Alright, let's get started. I might not get to every question or go quite as long as my usual marathons because the Phillies list still needs some touching up...

Dusty (Colorado): Since you're a part of the prospect team (and let's be honest, even if you weren't) it's my duty to ask you about Twins SS prospect Wander Javier. What is his upside?

Jarrett Seidler: Shockingly, this was the first question in the queue. Constants are always good in life.

The upside of all teenagers is limitless, and Wander's birthday isn't until later in the month.

Kevin (MD): What are your thoughts on Kristian Robinson?

Jarrett Seidler: The reports on him out of both the complex and the Pioneer League were very strong pretty much all year, dating back to spring. He's in the mix for the end of the 101.

Carl (TX): Is the Nats Luis Garcia the next great shortstop prospect?

Jarrett Seidler: Also in the mix for the 101. It's not, like, an outwardly amazing tools profile, but he was really good in A-ball and he didn't turn 18 until after the season began. He might be more along the lines of a Willy Adames/Andres Gimenez sort of prospect at the upper levels more than a Tatis.

rrydelek (Va. Beach): Wither goest Conforto? Wouldn’t it be a mercy for the Mets to just trade the guy? What do you think his future holds?

Jarrett Seidler: I think he's one of the better young hitters in the game, but they need to just let him go play already without jerking him around and threatening his job constantly. Don't worry, it's not like Terry Collins still has power...

As A Rule (Lakewood CA): What happens with Dakota Hudson in 2019 with the Cardinals? RP? Chance to be a SP? Back to AAA?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd be shocked if he goes back to the minors. If I was calling the shots I'd run with him as a starter since the RP fallback is always there, but if they're competing he might just end up being one of these newfangled multi-inning setup guys.

bob m (philly): What are your thoughts about Jeff McNeil and Ian Anderson and their potential ceilings?

Jarrett Seidler: Jeff McNeil is a 6. Ian Anderson could be a 7.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): Nimmo and Rosario+ for Realmuto proposed traded...would that accelerate the ETA for Gimenez if he gets off to a good start at AA?

Jarrett Seidler: This would be a terrible idea, but yes, one of the few decent reasons to make this deal would be if you think Gimenez is ready by the break in 2019.

Cornelius Blacksmith (Long Ago): Tommy Pham was simply gangbusters last September. Do you see his performance carrying into 2019 to the point where we will eventually call the Rays' future stadium The House That Pham Built?

Jarrett Seidler: As if there's any chance that they'd keep a player that long.

Top Worm (Golden Girls): I'm a big Mets fan and Peter Alonso believer, but BVW recently stating he wants Alonso as the opening day starting 1b seems a bit odd considering an April 11th start would buy an extra year of service time. What is your take on this, and also how Alonso will perform in 2019?

Jarrett Seidler: I'm not convinced as a legal matter, given what the Mets are saying about Alonso and just how blatant the service time manipulation would be, that such an aggressive move would hold up. So then you're probably talking about sending him down for a month or two and not two weeks, and that might not be a great idea. They should've just brought him up last summer.

I think Alonso is the early favorite for NL ROTY.

Lonely Dove (Hello): Jesus Aguilar remains a person of interest for me. Will he repeat his yummy 2018 season?

Jarrett Seidler: That sure seems like a career year, but the power's always been real. Heck of a waiver claim.

Go Go Gadget Dong! (WOW): Brandon Nimmo had some eye popping stats in 2018. Why won't you talk more about him?

Jarrett Seidler: We've talked about Brandon Nimmo quite a lot on our podcast, For All You Kids Out There, now available right on the BP home page.

Wink Wink (Oh?): What is Carter Kieboom's ETA and will his ceiling exceed Chris Sabo before we know it?

Jarrett Seidler: Kieboom might be up by the second half next year. Chris Sabo was a lot better in his late-20s than you'd think.

Johnny (OH): What are your thoughts on the Cleveland's George Valera?

Jarrett Seidler: This is the kind of guy it's hard to have a take on, because even finding someone who has seen him would take a decent bit of time and effort. I know he's a seven-figure kid from the Bronx who signed as a J2 out of the DR, I know that he was impressive during XST, and I know he missed most of the public-facing season with a broken hamate. I expect he'll be in rookie ball this year.

Why Not? (Denverish): Yu Darvish ruined my fantasy season last year, but also saved my cousin's life during a rare November pontoon explosion. Should I root for or against him this year, and will he be an ace once again?

Jarrett Seidler: Yu Darvish is cool. Always root for Yu Darvish. Expect him to be more of a no. 2 if he's healthy than an ace.

Chris (DC): What kind of numbers do you think Victor Robles will put up this year?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd set an over/under at something like .280/.350/.430, and with his speed and defense, he'd rate to be one of the better rookies in the league. I don't think he's Juan Soto, but who is?

Brian Tremendous IX (Montana): Francisco Mejia has only had a cup of coffee yet dozens upon dozens in the press are all but writing him off. I think this is a huge mistake and he could be an excellent hitter. Where are you on this important topic?

Jarrett Seidler: I still like the bat as much as I ever did, and I am still not sold he's going to do a lot of catching in the majors.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Does Cano play 2B and 1B for the Mets this year, or just one position exclusively?

Jarrett Seidler: He's being acquired as a second baseman. I think he'll get his usual dozen or so games at first, probably when McNeil is playing second and Alonso/Dom is sitting instead of Cano.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): If they are the same price ($31) in a 12 team head to head 5x5 rotisserie league (ERA, WHIP, Ks, wins, saves)who would you rather have between Greinke and Kershaw? I know that in previous years, the answer would have easily been Kershaw, but I'm starting to think that with his lack of durability and drop in ks, this might actually be a really tough decision. Also, does Greinke possibly being traded to an AL team change your answer? Thanks!

Jarrett Seidler: I don't play this type of fantasy, but if you're asking me who the better pitcher in a vacuum is, it's still Kershaw.

Mike Gianella (Pooptown): If you cut a burrito in half long-ways, does it become two soft-she'll tacos?

Jarrett Seidler: Is this the vaunted Lindbergh Method?

6'11" Bottom (Getting butt surgery): Are Gore and Luzardo the two best LHP prospects in the minors?

Jarrett Seidler: They sure are, and it's a long way back to either McKay or Sheffield.

Yusei Tomato (LA): Would you rather have Joey Bart or Adley Rutschman in a keep forever dynasty league?

Jarrett Seidler: I don't follow college ball closely enough to answer this with great confidence. Rutschman seems like he has greater offensive upside.

6'11" Bottom (Still getting butt surgery): Chris Owings to KC. World Series or bust!

Jarrett Seidler: That sure was a Kansas City signing.

Mark (NY): So what's a 75th percentile outcome for Peter Alonso? .280/.380/.525?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd peg the slugging a little higher and average a little lower, but not far off.

sportsguy21792 (Madison): What role do you see Seth Lugo having in 2019?

Jarrett Seidler: Callaway was pretty clear on yesterday's Mike Zaun that he'd prefer him in the bullpen. I'd expect similar to 2018, multiple innings in high leverage wherever they need him.

Tommy Hanson's Ground Beef Shoulder (Can't Remember): How underrated is Daniel Lynch? Lefty in mid-upper nineties with dominant pro debut. Top 100 worthy, right?

Jarrett Seidler: We had him eighth on the Royals list, and 55/45 grade guys are usually just a bit short of the 101. We have too many concerns about his offspeeds and mechanics to put him higher just yet, but that's pretty aggressive for us for a college arm drafted in the supplemental. If he keeps shoving like that up the chain, he will get to the 101 next year, that's for sure.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): What do you think the offensive ceiling is for Amed Rosario?

Jarrett Seidler: To rank him ahead of Diaz on the Mets 25U, I made the inference that he still has a plausible chance to be a role 7 regular, which would probably look something like 2018 Matt Chapman if he got there.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Is Chris Paddack just Michael Wacha 2.0 or will he be more than just a fastball-changeup-command guy?

Jarrett Seidler: Michael Wacha was an amazing talent before the injuries. If Chris Paddack ever has Michael Wacha's peak he'll have done real well for himself.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Mike Fiers has KC ace written all over him. Lol

Jarrett Seidler: What a confusing nontender in an offseason that had several of them.

X (Ny): People forgetting that Robert Gsellman was really good before he was overused ?

Jarrett Seidler: A full offseason preparing him for relief work should help there. So would a bullpen that isn't Gsellman, Diaz, and a burning trash pile.

Brady (My Couch, With Hawkeye!): Is there a reason some analysts and teams haven't realized that surplus value isn't linear and drastically overvalues the worth role 4's & role 45's and undervalues the worth of a game-changing player who is compensated at something equivalent to market value? I guess another way of putting this is how many teams actually believe what they practice and how many are under pressure from ownership to do this to maximize profit?

Jarrett Seidler: I think most smart people within the game realize it. But it's made rebuilding sexy and slashing payroll acceptable to fans in a way it really never has been before.

Mike (Albany): Is Anthony Seigler someone to be excited about, or is that more of a catchers-are-weird and he's 19 thing?

Jarrett Seidler: Prep catchers are traditionally the worst picks in the draft. He still might make the NYY top ten. Cautious optimism might be advisable?

Chuck (Charleston): I've always wondered how much of a player's increase in skill from year to year is due to coaching or just another year of competition? How important are PD coaches on the impact of a prospect's value?

Jarrett Seidler: Varies enormously by prospect and coach. I would suggest that the range of people who can positively or negatively affect a prospect's development through coaching is much wider than you'd think, and includes folks like private instructors and teammates. There's a lot of guys who are working out with teammates or private tutors as we speak, and will make jumps next season because of it.

Andrew Argent-Soixanteneuf (New Jersey): With all the excitement going on concerning the New York Mets and the Robinson Cano trade, I was curious if you could take a moment to talk about one of the Mets most exciting prospects who unfortunately was unable to be called up at the end of the last season. That prospect, of course, is 31 year old Tim Tebow. New GM Brodie Van Wagenen says that he is "one step away from making the big leagues. How exactly large is that step and could you possibly take a moment to chat about this exciting talent in the Mets system and on a scale of 3-16 rate just how likely it is that the Wilpons will call Tebow up in September when the Mets are like 20 games out?

Jarrett Seidler: He's, like, a Tebow jump pass away.

Listen, he's going to be one of the starting outfielders at Syracuse, and the outfield depth in this system is five steps beyond atrocious. I think he gets called up for need before September. So a 14.

UNION MAN (Lynbrook): Hey der kid. I wuz wondering if you think that Cano will be anyting. Also what system might replace the draft? I know its a long shot but I would love to see what a labor friendly free market alternative to the draft might be.

Jarrett Seidler: "Labor friendly" and "free market" are not terms that usually go together.

Kevin (Chanahon): Is Adonis Medina underated?

Jarrett Seidler: If I thought so, I'd probably get him moved up on our rankings.

Rich (Willow Springs): Is Sixto Sanchez stock about to tumble?

Jarrett Seidler: Not if he's healthy, and I don't have access to his medicals. I have spoken to people who think he's headed for Tommy John, and I have spoken to people who think he's fine. I can't tell you which way the cookie is crumbling here.

Kurt (New Lenox): Is Kyle Freeland for real?

Jarrett Seidler: I think he's good. I don't think he's sustainably a top five pitcher in the league.

Keith (Buffalo wild wings): How high are you on Mitch Keller?

Jarrett Seidler: His stock has barely moved in the past few years. He's firmly in the second tier of pitching prospects, and the first tier is Whitley alone.

Keith (Aspen): Is Dustin May worth investing in in a dynasty fantasy league?

Jarrett Seidler: Buy immediately. Definitely before the Dodgers list and the 101 come out.

Ralph (Springfield): Is Yordan Alvarez going to be a middle of the order force?

Jarrett Seidler: Definitely maybe.

Drew (Cincy): Overall thoughts on the Reds farm system ?? Also, how would you attack pitching issues this year ? Sign couple free agents, maybe trade prospect or two ? We’re desperate !! Thanks

Jarrett Seidler: We published their list a few weeks ago. Very good system, strong at the top with good depth. I'd be tempted to give the arms like Stephenson and Garrett another shot to work it out in the majors given the unlikeliness of contention. I expect them to sign a few dudes or try a cheap trade reclamation project like Sonny Gray.

Anon (-): Doesn’t need to be responded to, just a note: not everyone who listens to barstool or enjoys some of their content means they indentify with and stand for some of the things people who work there have done or said in the past

Jarrett Seidler: There are plenty of people who listen to PMT or follow PFT Commenter on Twitter or whatnot who don't know the ugly history. You, apparently, do actually know better and choose to ignore it. That's a choice that you've made, and it's a choice a lot of my colleagues in the media have made too. But it is a choice.

Cole Whittier (Pasadena, CA): How good is Juan Soto?

Jarrett Seidler: If you're that good as a teenager, you've got a fairly high shot at a HOF career. And it's not like the tools aren't there to support the performance.

Mike (NY): So who you got in 5 years: Vlad Jr., Acuna, or Soto?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd edge towards Soto but there's literally not a bad choice here.

Mike (NY): How is your health and are you ready to tackle those Tebow call up rumors around midseason?

Jarrett Seidler: I am doing well, thank you for asking. I expect the Tebow stuff to start by the middle of spring, not the middle of the season.

Jon (NJ): Assuming the decision has been made to not sign a FA catcher and Realmunto was the priority, what is YOUR best offer? Does it include any of the controllable pieces on the ML roster?

Jarrett Seidler: I would try to build a trade around Ronny Mauricio and David Peterson, and expect the Marlins to tell me to pound sand. I would not trade Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, or Rosario.

My answer might be different if Grandal and to a lesser extent Ramos weren't available as free agents, mind you.

Ricky (Jersey): Does SWR go first round in a redraft ?

Jarrett Seidler: I don't *think* so, but he was one of those late popup Texas dudes with a high price tag and he did pop a little more in instructs.

Mike (NY): Robles has something to say about Alonso being ROY Favorite.

Jarrett Seidler: Alonso's probably going to put up better counting numbers assuming similar playing time for both.

Wes (Ny): Say the Mets sign Miller, Maldonado, Adam warren and Austin Jackson—-how many wins?

Jarrett Seidler: 82

Kevin (MD): To follow up about Kristian Robinson, if he continues to hit in Low-A at the start of the year is he a candidate to be one of the fast risers of 2019?

Jarrett Seidler: Absolutely.

John (Jersey Shore): What month does Tim Tebow get his callup to Queens?

Jarrett Seidler: July

John (Jersey Shore): If you had a choice between Harper and Machado (all things being equal ie $ and position availability) who do you choose?

Jarrett Seidler: It'd depend on my team. Machado has a rarer skill set and is somewhat less volatile.

James (Hell, NY): Better Mets option: trading for Realmuto after his value collapses (after Ramos and Grandal sign) or just giving Grandal 3-4 years?

Jarrett Seidler: I think Grandal's a better player in a vacuum so I'd just sign him and be done with it, and if you look at both our DRC and FRAA products you might end up agreeing.

Joe (TX): On a scale of 1-10, how much do you believe in Adalberto Mondesi?

Jarrett Seidler: 6.9

Chuck (Tinley Park): Does Jose Berrios have another gear in him?

Jarrett Seidler: Dude had 200 strikeouts and made the ASG last year. How much better can you expect him to be?

Sean99 (Orland Park): Is Victor Victor a star?

Jarrett Seidler: Didn't get that kind of feedback on him for our various post-signing reports on him. There's a large uncertainty until we see him in game action.

Keith (Neptune): Where does Alex Kirillof peak on prospect lists before he gets called up?

Jarrett Seidler: Kirilloff might be the winner for this year's most internally-discussed 101 guy. There have been arguments to put him all over the place, and that means I can't do my normal cheating thing and just ballpark where we have him ranked already. If he torches the high-minors like he did A-ball, and stays eligible, I could see him in the top five or ten next year, but that's a lot of if's.

Kevin (With Jesse in the basement): Does Touki make 20 starts for the Braves next year?

Jarrett Seidler: Probably!

John (Jersey Shore): With the XFL returning, do you regret giving away your Keith Elias NJ/NY Hitmen shirsey?

Jarrett Seidler: The most famous people associated with my high school are former XFL running back Keith Elias, international soccer referee (and my calc 2 teacher) Mark Geiger, and the prom mom.

Billy (St. Charles): I think Giolito still bounces back and becomes a rotation stalwart. Would you drug test me?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd like to see them drop him in the pen and tell him to do nothing but air out the fastball and the curveball, and see what happens.

Kevin (The woods): What is #trunk? Can you define it as a scouting term? Who has a great trunk in baseball?

Jarrett Seidler: It's a piece of furniture you put crap you don't ever need in and then use as a coffee table. Kabak had a great trunk up for sale the other week.

Chris B (Canada): Danny Jansen: 80 OFP or the first ever 90?

Jarrett Seidler: If only we gave a three grade bump for great glasses.

Steve (Homewood): Is Nomar Mazara just an empty .260 20 HR guy?

Jarrett Seidler: He's still 23. We expect everyone to come up and do what Soto did. Development is not linear. These things can take time. He's two months older than Nick Senzel.

a woodsman (the woods): Why did a babyface Hogan eliminate a heel Sid in the 1992 Royal Rumble?

Jarrett Seidler: This really bothered me as a kid, especially when they so obviously dubbed the fake crowd noise in. Hogan helped Flair win the title! Hogan's booking after he lost the title to Warrior in 1990 was kind of terrible until he turned in WCW, he acted way too heelish and not in an ultimately positive Becky Lynch kind of way either.

UNION MAN (DRIVING TO YOUR HOUSE): GIVE ME MY DRAFT ALTERNATIVE YOU LINT LICKER

Jarrett Seidler: I'd basically do it like the pre-cap J2 system, where all players became eligible to sign on the first July 2nd after the earlier of their high school graduation or 18th birthday, and remained eligible to sign at any time with no bonus restrictions. If you want to go to college for four years, go to college for four years. If you want to sign out of high school, sign out of high school. If you want to be a one-and-done, do that. The way it's done now doesn't encourage an education, it doesn't help college baseball, and it only serves to restrict draft prices.

I would also allow for an exceptional player rule, similar to what the CHL has for their draft, where a Bryce Harper sort of talent could petition to be entered into an earlier class than they otherwise would be.

Ashley (SF): Chances Nolan Gorman develops an above average (55+) hit tool?

Jarrett Seidler: Fairly high. We're very, very bullish on Gorman.

Brandon (Albuquerque): What kind of hit/power/speed grades do you think Wander Franco (Rays) develops by the time he debuts?

Jarrett Seidler: Jeffrey wrote him up as a 6 hit/6 power/5 speed guy in the Appy this summer, and he admitted those hit and power grades were probably on the conservative side. Dude might just be a freak monster.

Rob (Phoenix): Do you expect Vidal Brujan to be a big prospect riser this year? Where will his hit tool settle?

Jarrett Seidler: He's got a shot to make our 101, and he wasn't really on that radar a year ago, so yeah, he's up about a full grade this year. Hit tool above-average, shot for plus.

Terry (Connecticut): Does Nick Madrigal's lack of power concern you as a prospect evaluator? How much does it limit his value?

Jarrett Seidler: There's more power projection there than it might seem, in part because of the era. We like him a lot, but he might be a much better real life player than a fantasy player if that concerns you.

Duncan (the other side of the pond): Kirloff > Adell?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd take Adell and not by a little. Freak athlete, a year-and-a-half younger but performing similarly, more defensive value.

Jarrett Seidler: Alright, I'm gonna have to cut it off here before Brendan starts hollering at me soon. Going to try to do these more regularly moving forward. Thanks everyone!