Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Kevin Carter

Chat: Kevin Carter

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday December 14, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Kevin Carter.

Kevin is a member of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team.

Kevin Carter: Alright, let's get this thing kicked off. Hey everyone and thanks for joining me for my first BP Chat!

TC (Cincinnati): Hi Kevin. I have a prospect-related fantasy question hopefully you can address. I'm in an NL-only dynasty 5x5 roto auction league. We keep 12 each year. Most top prospects are already on rosters, but there are a few still out there. I'm looking particularly at targeting Ke'Bryan Hayes and Gavin Lux. What are your thoughts on each regarding realistic ETAs, roads to playing time, and ceilings? Our rosters have a short bench (only 7 players), so I need to decide if I can afford to carry one/both all year should I draft them with the rationale that they will make an impact at worst in early 2020.

Kevin Carter: I like Lux and Hayes quite a bit. Although long-term I think I like Hayes' offensive upside more, I'd probably go for Lux due to his current position at SS. Hayes has a much better shot at seeing an MLB roster sooner though unless the Dodgers want to throw him in at 2B.

Caseyj15 (Medford, OR): What is yout accessment of Aldaberto Mondesi as compared to Carlos Correa's stat line over the next 5 years?

Kevin Carter: They are completely different dudes. I buy that Mondesi will be able to provide some pop and premium defense, but I don't buy last seasons's offensive production as a whole. Generally guys who have poor feel for the zone get stuck when pitchers adjust to them.

The exceptions are guys like Baez, but Mondesi doesn't have those same offensive tools.

Dusty (Colorado): What do you think of Wander Javier? Whats his upside?

Kevin Carter: That's pretty damn hard to say Dusty. He was raw both on offense and defense before the shoulder injury and now we have to see how the arm strength and power bounce back post-rehab.

Upside pre-injury was if he filled out his slight frame a bit, cleaning up the swing consistency, keeping the quick twitch and quality coordination, and all while sticking at SS. Big tools though if he comes back healthy.

Buddy (Peoria): Is Andrew Miller the Cubs main relief target?

Kevin Carter: The reliever market has quite a few big arms left and I don't think the Cubs need to spend what it will take to get Miller to get a quality arm. The Cubs are currently acting like payroll is a big concern so maybe look for them to grab a couple of the less-established, but dominant in 2017 arms like Ottavino. It's still hard to say though with the reliever market being completely stocked still.

Lathund (Sweden): After a number of trades and some graduations, the Brewers system seems to be ranked in the bottom third, or at best middle of the pack. If you had to make a case that it was better than that, what would it be? Any under the radar guys you like on that farm?

Kevin Carter: Brewers still have some top notch pieces at the top. I'm sure you'll be shocked to find out I love Hiura. Outside of him and a few others, it's a fairly shallow system, which is why many of the orgs will end up ranking them low. The other partial reason is that some of their high ranked guys have evaluators split. For instance I saw Lutz quite a bit pre-draft and I don't really think he has the barrel control to tap into the raw power at the MLB level without significant improvements to the plate discipline. He's a high risk guy for me.

Real Medium-Sized Fish (Water): Do you know if J2 D-backs signee Alvin Guzman came stateside for instructs, and if so, have you heard anything on him?

Kevin Carter: I know little about Guzman outside of the video I've seen on him, but by the video and by reputation he's a prototypical J-2 toolsy projection OFer. Fast, has a good body to put on good weight, and shows some feel for hitting despite sushi raw mechanical consistency.

Chris (DC ): How high do you expect Kristian Robinson to be ranked at this time next year? How do his tools compare with Jo Adell?

Kevin Carter: It's pretty hard to say where he'll be because once he hits A ball, he's going to have to learn to adjust to better breaking stuff than he's ever seen. Sometimes guys see it, quickly learn to recognize the spin, and mash. Sometimes guys struggle and it takes time to learn.

As for tools, he's got em. He doesn't have Adell's raw power yet, but he's only 17 and still has some room while Adell is filled out.

The biggest difference is Jo has hit those first rounds of adjustments in A ball and breezed through them. That leaves evaluators optimistic about his odds to do the same as he continues to move up.

Real Medium-Sized Fish (Water): Kevin, do you have any notes on new Diamondback Andy Young? I like his ability to barrel the ball, but can he legitimately play any defensive position?

Kevin Carter: I saw him a couple of times in the Texas League this year. He's interesting in some regards. He's filled out and 24 with some raw power and he has feel for barrel, but the approach lags behind and it leads to a lot of weak contact. Defense isn't good and he's slow, so the approach will need to improve if he ever wants to be more than a bench bat.

Daniel (SF): Have you gotten a look at Bobby Witt Jr? Any opinion?

Kevin Carter: I make sure to drop by once or twice a season to make sure he's still good.
He's still good.

Good quick twitch, longish swing with plus bat speed, good body with longer legs and plenty of room, current above average raw power, etc. You've heard it all before.

The big thing, and the reason he'll probably go even higher than the tools suggest, is that he has a professional attitude and work ethic. He knows why he's out there and even though he enjoys himself, he takes it all seriously.

Daniel (SF): LA has been vocal lately about wanting to move Puig and/or Kemp. With their farm, is there an opportunity to buy prospects with the Kemp salary dump? Could a team pry Keibert loose?

Kevin Carter: I very seriously doubt it. The Dodgers love Ruiz and I see why. This season early he really struggled to recognize AA stuff, but by mid-season he had already made tremendous strides. The bat to ball is double plus and the Dodgers have a good track record of tapping those contact profiles into more power. Already handles the game like a pro behind the plate although the receiving still needs some work.

Daniel (SF ): Who's the best of Texas's least hyped prospects?

Kevin Carter: The guy who doesn't get talked about enough is Yordan Alvarez. Dude has instinctual understanding of hitting and the raw tools to make it hurt. Recognizes spin, patient approach, attacks pitches in the zone, feel for barrel, quick, plus raw power, etc. Dude mashes and will probably mash in the MLB.

I still like Naylor a lot too. Keep an eye on him, especially if he gets the bad weight down.

I love Connor Joe too. I think he's way better than most of the projections on him. If he can find a position to stick at, it wouldn't surprise me to see him put up a few above average offensive seasons soon.

D-BO (412): What's up Kevin, what do you think of Brendan Rodgers long term? Seemed to scuffle a bit at AAA, although he was battling a shoulder injury. Do you think he is prone to strikeout or do you think he can get away hitting .270-.280 in MLB?

Kevin Carter: Tools are still there. It's less about the physical ability and more about how he's never been challenged enough to force him to calm down the aggressiveness on pitches out of the zone. It was always going to happen at some point and given his makeup, I feel good that he will work to change his approach.

beringstorm (Tacoma, WA): I am in a twenty team, keep forever, fantasy league. I've been a rebuilding team for a few years, but should start being competitive this year. My roster is filled with high end prospects who should get regular playing time moving forward (A. Rosario, Acuna, Soto, Ohtani, Adell etc.). I pick 10th in this year's prospect draft. Since I have so much young talent coming onto my roster, I'm looking more for a longer range high ceiling asset. Am I being a little too cute by targeting Malcom Nunez, 3B StL?

Kevin Carter: That's a bit of a shot in the dark. There are quite a few players I'd probably pick before Nunez due to position and uncertainty with age/distance from MLB. His body doesn't suggest there's too much more raw in the tank down the line either. There are better bets for far away guys.

Kevin Carter: Alright, that appears to be it for now. I appreciate the questions and hope to see y'all around next time! Have a good one, Kevin