Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday November 02, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey is the Lead Prospect Writer at Baseball Prospectus, and co-host of the For All You Kids podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: My year in lists, stamping on your fingers as we're clinging on to the abyss.

Jose (MN): What do you predict the Dodgers catching situation to look like for 2019?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have discussed this some with Crag. He thinks they are an an ideal landing sport for Realmuto. Include Smith in the deal and plan on Ruiz taking over in two years. Seems plausible to me. They could try to patch for a year too.

Mike (NY): So based off their rookie years, who do you see best going forward: Soto, Acuna, or Gleyber. Also are you the crazy one who would take Vlad Jr. over all 3?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I love Vladito and I think he could certainly be better long term, but until he does it in the majors he's gonna be below the dudes that have. Of that list I think Acuna has the highest highs of the three but Soto is the most consistent performer.

Dax (MI): In your opinion, does kelenic or Mauricio have a better shot at eventually being a top 10 guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nationally? Probably Mauricio. Kelenic is the better prospect at present but is less likely to really pop like that as a prospect. He's more of a broad base of skills guy. Mauricio could be a power-hitting shortstop, albeit at like a 90th percentile outcome, that's the kind of dude that resides at the top of our list.

Jared Kelenic (Wisconsin): Do I open the season in full season A ball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I see no reason why not.

CoachAScott (Georgia): What free agents do you look for the Braves to target this offseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It depends on how aggressive they want to get. They SHOULD get really aggressive and be in one of the elite bats, but functionally that applies to most of the 30 teams. The Braves have already indicated they aren't really going whole hog, so II assume they will go for a couple mid-tier arms, a reliever, maybe a Marwin Gonzalez type.

Buddy (Peoria): I don't see the Cubs doing much besides adding another bullpen piece (Andrew Miller perhaps). What say you?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hey another team indicating they don't plan on going all-in this offseason. Machado makes way too much sense here, but that was true at the deadline as well and here we are. They don't really have the pieces to make significant trades, and they will talk themselves into not having that many holes and that the Brewers pitching will regress. They might be right, but good luck selling that.

Rickey H. (Las Vegas): I see a lot of "if the Nats sign Harper they should trade Robles or X". Wouldn't it make more sense for them to trade Eaton? Doesn't Eaton have some trade value, even if the return is less than the "X" return for Robles? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nats would still be selling a little low on Robles until he has a full healthy season. Eaton's health track record isn't great either. So they should probably just sign Harper and keep both. Likely will end up finding plenty of at-bats for both over the course of 162. Though I suppose if you get a good offer for Eaton he'd be the one to deal, yes.

Carl (SD): Is Hudson Potts a top 100 guy for fantasy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is a better question for Ben or Bret, but he's in consideration for the 101 (I'd say unlikely to make it though) and isn't a pitcher so probably

Easterbtook (Ontario canada): Good day and thanks for the chat!!! Would you please compare Juan Soto to Eloy Jimenez.... Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've said before that if Soto has stayed healthy in 2017 he'd have been ranked right with Jimenez, it's power over hit versus hit over power, but its like 7 hit/6 pop versus 6 hit/7 pop. I think Soto ends up the better defender long term, but similar offensive value. You could argue Eloy has more pure upside in the bat. Could have some 40 home run seasons.

Cal (Tribeca ): Crazy to think that Amed Rosario is the perfect kind of player to transition from SS to CF?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Elite runner, rangy, issues with actions and throwing at times. Yeah, sounds about right. It's not always that easy though, and there's upside in the SS glove too.

Todd Frazier (Toms River, NJ): Do I have any surplus value at 1/$9mm, or just enough that I’ll be easy to dump (or not)

Jeffrey Paternostro: At 9m per win, technically yes, but paying that close to market for an aging 2-win player is rarely an attractive proposition to teams.

Austin Riley (ATL): How good am I really?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Above-average to plus regular

terryallan (CO): Why isn't Josh Fuentes getting any prospect love? He was the PCL MVP and has done nothing but rake since signing as an UDFA. Do you think the Rockies add him to the 40 man this winter, and does he have a shot to make the team as a bench bat?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's one of those dudes I hem and haw about role 3 or 4. He grew on me some at Hartford last year, but he's overaged, doesn't walk, doesn't have ideal corner power, is about to be 26 and has played in launching pads. So those are probably the reasons. This is the Rockies though and I like him more than Pat Valaika.

Jose (MN): What are the chances that Shervyen Newton stays at SS?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Better than you'd think by looking at him, but not great. Maybe 1 in 3. Could be plus at third.

Joseph K (NYC): How would you grade Kieboom's raw? And do you think he could make an appearance in DC by the end of 2019 (most likely at 2B)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I said 55 at Futures, could easily grow into plus. 2019 is a little ambitious. Needs to fully conquer AA first. Could see him getting a September look though

Henry Owens (AZ): Better player to roster in a dynasty league: Dylan Bundy or Edwin Jackson? For the sake of context, let's just say that my team sucks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: An Edwin Jackson fantasy baseball question in 2018, god bless. I think Bundy is more likely to have and keep a guaranteed spot as long as he is healthy (yeah yeah) I'd take him as an upside play

Dan (NY): How good do we actually think Jeff McNeil is. O/U WAR for 2019 could be 3?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Steamer apparently has him as basically Mets-era Murphy with better defense. That's good for 2.8. Seems plausible. There's gonna be a high delta here naturally.

Warren (Australia): Any chance Nick Gordon becomes a decent fantasy asset? I've held him in dynasty for a few years but am beginning to think I should have traded him when his name carried some lustre.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Let me tell you how tired I am of writing about Nick Gordon. I feel like he's been around longer than Dee at this point. He was never gonna be a huge fantasy producer though.

Mike (Albany): If Vladito was a cocktail, what would that cocktail be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I feel like a really great dish is a better comp here, but we are trying to capture the feeling of just being blown away by something that should be familiar. The cocktail that has done that for me lately is called Precision Timepiece and is a Negroni riff with jager/aperol/amaro with Jerry Thomas Bitters. 2:1:1

Fara (La): Do any of the arms that the Mets acquired at the 2017 look like above average relief arms?

Jeffrey Paternostro: ...not...really. But the thing about relief arms is this changes quickly.

Dylan Bundy (MD): I was cut the day our league rolled over by a disgruntled fantasy owner. It's a 16 team league. The annual draft is just veteran free agents and whichever prospects have been added to the player pool. I should be a first round pick right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Depending on prospect eligibility, yeah

Andy (Tender Regions): I dropped Dylan Bundy in my pitching heavy dynasty league instead of shopping him around. Did I make a mistake?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Apparently?

Nicky J (RIdgewood): Odds that one of Peterson/Kay/Dunn becomes a 3 or better?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Something like 25%/10%/30%, so 65% I guess.

Jordan (South Dakota): Do you like Boston Market? I keep hearing everyone talk about it.

Jeffrey Paternostro: My mother wasn't much of a cook and there was one five minutes from our house for a while, so man I ate a lot of Boston Market as a kid. Meatloaf wasn't bad.

SAM (NJ): DO YOU AGREE WITH THIS NARRATIVE THAT THE METS FARM SYSTEM IS UNDERRATED

Jeffrey Paternostro: Underrated compared to what? I guess it's averagish but on the shallow side after the Kilome TJ. I imagine there will be people that like the aforementioned arms more than I do though.

Jose (MN): How much has Mitch White's stock fallen?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Velo's been down and he's struggled to stay healthy, which are pretty bad indicators for your pitching prospect. I haven't really started the Dodgers list, but I'd guess he has a shot to sneak onto the back of the Top Ten.

Kurt Angle (Saudi Arabia, currently): How strongly do you feel about Jonathan India as a dynasty league spec?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't had strong fantasy baseball feelings...well, ever really. I think we have him fourth in the draft class on the early 101 sorting.

Zach (NY): Is Nimmo or Conforto a fair question now? Who ya taking?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you think second half (healthy?) Conforto is the real Conforto than it's him. I do. It's a fair question though.

Kyle (Miami): I picked up the wrong Victor Mesa in my dynasty league before the season ended, and my fascist commissioner won't swap the good one for mine. Who's right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ooh, dicey. I think intention here does matter, but I guess it depends on how difficult it would have been to discern which was which by clicking through or whatever.

Dan (NY): Could the Mets get a decent, controllable reliever (Ryne Stanek, Jeff Hoffman, Devenski, etc.) for Dom Smith?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think everyone and their brother knows the Mets will be considering moving Smith which hurts his trade value. The Mets are also absolutely stubborn enough to ride him on the 40 all year though, so maybe that gives them some leverage. It only takes one team to be interested but who is really looking for an everyday first baseman with no major league track record. Even the tanking teams have their own cheap cost-controlled options. (or very expensive unmoveable ones if you are the Orioles). I think you can get a reliever, but more akin to the ones they got in 2017.

Laine (New York ): You mentioned on FAYK that you’ve gotten some good dez Lindsay reports—can you elaborate and what does this mean for him ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Just that he has made some good swing changes and the athleticism is still there after the various maladies. I think he probably is shooting for short-side platoon CF at this point, but I'm gonna hold out hope, and that might be enough to sneak him onto the list somewhere in this system.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Lists start Monday. Orioles, Royals, White Sox. #blessed.