Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday September 12, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark is a fantasy writer at Baseball Prospectus

Mark Barry: It's that time. Let's do a chat.

Adalberto Mondesi (KC): Am I any good? What do you think about me in a dynasty format?

Mark Barry: You are good, especially in this landscape where steals are so hard to come by. I think a .260-.280 line is pretty reasonable, with double-digit homers and 30+ steal upside is realistic. I just hope your league doesn't have a "walks" category.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): How healthy is Donaldson at this point? What do you expect from him down the stretch?

Mark Barry: He's playing defense (and doing it quite well after seeing last night's highlights), so I'd think he's at least healthy-ish? When he's out there, I'd expect homers and RBI, but I'm not sure a big batting average will accompany said homers and RBI.

Michael Chavis (Boston): For dynasty and fantasy purposes, I'm a surefire top 40 or 50 prospect, right?

Mark Barry: The recent strikeout binge has me a little concerned. If he doesn't hit for average, I'm not sure he'll be the fantasy guy that we hoped for. I'd have him outside of the top 50, personally.

Mrs Chavis (Boston): How dare you besmirch my son.

Mark Barry: Sorry, Michael's mom.

mkoster12bp (NJ): Are you able to give your insight or rank maybe these middle infield players in a dynasty keeper league going forward? -Lourdes gurriel jr, scott kingery, Willy adames, franklin barreto, Luis urias, Orlando arcia, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Lowe?

Mark Barry: I kind of like all these guys a little bit. McNeil is tougher to rank, in that he's a little older than the rest of the list. I'll say Urias, Adames, Gurriel, McNeil, Kingery, Barreto, Lowe and Arcia

Antonio Cabello (The Big Apple): I absolutely destroyed rookie ball pitching as a 17-year-old. How valuable am I as a real life prospect? Am I a top 50 dynasty prospect?

Mark Barry: I'm intrigued, for sure. Let's see how he comes back from the shoulder injury that ended his season, but aside from that, Cabello should be on the radar.

Charlene (Wisconsin): I recently looked at what Carlos Rincon did in High A this year. 220 WRC+, .491 ISO, .818 SLG, and a .513 WOBA. I know it was only 131 PA, but WOW!. Any chance he's a guy trending up in prospect circles?

Mark Barry: It's definitely impressive that Rincon hit significantly better in High A and trimmed a few percentage points from his strikeout rate in the process. Also, even though he sorta had a reputation for being ultra aggressive, a walk rate over 12 percent is pretty tasty.

Parker Dunshee (Oakland): Do you think I'm a top 100 prospect?

Mark Barry: I don't know if I'd say top 100, but he definitely seems like the kind of guy that doesn't get a lot of prospect play and then turns into a serviceable #3-4 starter in the big leagues. He strikes out a ton of dudes and basically walks nobody, so that's nice.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Looks like Kyle Lewis may finally be healthy and on the right track!

Mark Barry: It does look like he's healthy, but he hasn't been especially great. Even still, the health is probably the most important thing right now and the fact that he'll have a relatively regular offseason is a good thing.

Drew Waters (Atlanta): Am I top 50 prospect for dynasty leagues?

Mark Barry: I think 50 might be a little bold, but there's a lot to like. I'm interested to see where the Braves start him next season, they're usually pretty aggressive with their promotions and if he can hold his own in Double A, I'd expect those rankings to soar.

Nolan Arenado (Colorado): I am a top ____ dynasty league asset.

Mark Barry: Eight?

Chansen8895 (San jose): who are your favorite prospects that put up a big second half or are due for a big bump on the 2019 preseason rankings?

Mark Barry: I think familiar names that will take a big leap would be Ke'Bryan Hayes, Wander Franco, Trevor Larnach and Taylor Trammell. I sort of like Miguel Amaya as an under-the-radar guy as well. And, like, everyone in the Padres org.

Christin Stewart (Detroit): I just hit an oppo double off Gerrit Cole for my first MLB XBH. I've got to be considered a top 75-ish prospect for dynasty leagues right?

Mark Barry: Sure, that sounds about right.

Joe (TBD): Earlier this year I traded away a starting pitcher on a Sunday so someone could stream him, and then got him to trade him back to me later that day. Essentially I rented a player to another team and decided their matchup for a small amount of value. Is this OK?

Mark Barry: I'm normally an "all trades are fine" type guy, but this strikes me as pretty sketchy.

Todd (Dallas): Is thomas szapucki being forgotten about? Seems like a cheap flyer in deeper leagues due to the TJ, but he should be back soon.

Mark Barry: I have Szapucki in a few spots with the exact same thought. Anyone is a good flyer if cheap enough.

Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh): Am I a top-50 prospect?

Mark Barry: He's been very good in his second stint in A ball. I'd like to see him in Double A before committing to top-50 status. Interesting power/speed guy, though.

Ferns (Philly): Am I crazy to think the Phillies' Luis Garcia may end up as good or better than the Nationals' Luis Garcia?

Mark Barry: Not crazy, although I prefer Nats' Garcia in the Luis Garcia Sweepstakes.

Bethany (Maryland): I was recently offered Jonathan Loaisiga for Kolby Allard in my 16 teamer(40 man minor league roster). Which of these arms do you think will fare better long term?

Mark Barry: I prefer Allard.

Tom Pringle (UK): I have an opportunity in a keep forever, no salary dynasty league to acquire Drew Waters, Antonio Cabello, Josh James, and both Luis Garcias (Philly and Washington) in exchange for Dallas Keuchel. Easy accept, right?

Mark Barry: As always, it depends on your contention window. It would probably be close, but I'd still take Keuchel.

Rusty (Denver): What can you tell me about Wander Samuel Franco of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays?

Mark Barry: I can tell you he might be very, very good. I'm super excited to see what he does next year. And he's easily one of the 2-3 best Wanders in the minor leagues right now.

Pedro (NYC): I've got Fernando Tatis and Brendan Rodgers on my dynasty league roster. How excited should I be?

Mark Barry: Super excited. You should be super excited.

Jake Junis (Kansas City): I'm actually pretty good, aren't I? I'm a guy people should be trying to buy in dynasty, yes?

Mark Barry: I think you're ok. Awesome at times and really bad at times, which averages out to probably a #4 starter with some upside.

Shervyen Newton (Mets minors): Am I a legit prospect?

Mark Barry: Sher, why not?

Tammy Tabernacle (Timbuktu): Ottoneu-style dynasty league trade advice needed please!! I've been offered Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Laureano in exchange for 1B mashers Ryan O'Hearn and Luke Voit. Should I do it?

Mark Barry: I think I'd do that. I prefer the Mountcastle and Laureano upside a good bit more.

Aaron (Minnesota): I've got the top pick next year in a dynasty draft. It's too early, probably, but I'm eyeing India, Groshans, Victor Victor, Adley Rutschman. Who should I take, assuming the draft was today?

Mark Barry: I think India, Madrigal and Larnach are all 2018 draftees that should be options.

Jack (Columbia): Just saw that Prospects 1500 awarded Royals MJ Melendez their catcher prospect of the year. Do you agree? He had a pretty monster year and seems to have some crazy tools as a hitter.

Mark Barry: I think I still prefer Keibert Ruiz, but Melendez is certainly in the conversation.

Slappy (NC): Are Austin Dean and Ramon Laureano keepers? Full-time players in 2019? And what are chances that Austin Gomber remains a starter in 2019?

Mark Barry: I imagine Laureano will be in Oakland's plans, but I can't predict with any confidence what the Marlins will do. Dean doesn't have any "L's" in his name, so that has to work out in his favor.

I think the Cardinals' rotation is probably too crowded for Gomber to see regular action, although their staff hasn't exactly been the beacon of health, so he'll get some starts.

Beatrice Bourbon (Savannah): Are you buying in on Cedric Mullins long term? Also, is Austin Hays an afterthought now? 📉

Mark Barry: Yep, I like Mullins, although I wish he would run a little more. I don't know if Hays is an afterthought, but this season sure has been a bummer.

Sam (Ontario): I was put onto Josh James from the Astros by Carson Cistulli and @hunt4prospects on Twitter, among others. First: do you think James is legit? Small sample obviously, but his seven innings have been pretty great. And second: do you have any prospects that you're really into and will vouch for that aren't on lists anywhere?

Mark Barry: I like what James as done so far, but Houston is another tough pitching staff to break into. I've been tossing around ideas for a piece on big hit tool guys that haven't necessarily hit for power in the minor leagues, and that's a profile I'm really into right now. Garrett Hampson, Adam Haseley, Vidal Brujan, Randy Arozarena are all guys I'm looking at.

Esteury Ruiz (San Diego): If you were doing rankings for fantasy purposes, for a points league based on sabermetrics, whereabouts would I rank?

Mark Barry: Somewhere in the middle.

Yankees Fan (Bangladesh): Deivi Garcia had an impressive season as a teenager making it to AA. What are your thoughts? Curveball is NASTY

Mark Barry: He's looked really good in his one Double A start, too. He's becoming en vogue enough to be tough to acquire in dynasty formats, but if he's around, you should scoop him up.

Genesis Cabrera (ST Louis): Do I have upside to be a good starter? 95 from the left don't grow on trees.

Mark Barry: You walk a few too many dudes for my taste, but if that gets under control, then hard maybe.

Carl (SD): Hi, thanks for the chat. What can you tell me about Hudson Potts?

Mark Barry: He has definitely struggled since the promotion to Double A, but he's still super young, so I'm optimistic.

Slappy (NC): How would you rank these guys: Beer, Bart, Lavigne, Turang, Pompey & Alex Thomas? (I have #16 & #17 in our upcoming draft). Who are your 2018 mlb draft sleepers?

Mark Barry: Let's say Beer, Turang, Bart, Thomas, Turang and Pompey.

Loria (Milwaukee): I've waited all year to promote Soto and Acuna from my minors (saving a year). Hoping next year this allows me to trad JD Mart for an Ace. Is there a single SP thats worth trading JDM for in that lineup/stadium?? If so, who??

Mark Barry: The Blue Jays and White Sox would like to commend you on your patience. There are probably a handful of guys I'd target in a JDM deal, especially if you're already loaded in the outfield. The usual suspects - Scherzer, Sale, deGrom, Kluber, Kershaw - it all depends on how badly you need the pitching.

Kurt (New Lenox): Is Touki Toussaint a starter for Atlanta next year?

Mark Barry: Our pal Eddy Almaguer wrote about the Young Braves today for the site. I hope he's a starter. If I were making the calls, he'd be in my rotation.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/42604/dynasty-freestyle-ranking-the-impossible-braves-sp-logjam/

Gerald (Canada): Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.

Mark Barry: They're fine.

Uri (Israel): Is the power real for Kevin Smith, Tor SS?

Mark Barry: Man, the 25 homers and 29 steals across two levels is pretty sexy. I'd like to see him get tested with Double A pitching next season, as he is getting "older" at 22 years old.

Keith (Putin Bay): Francisco Mejia or Keibert Ruiz in dynasty?

Mark Barry: Mejia's better, and he's up, so that puts him firmly ahead for me. But I think Keibert is really good.

Ned (Nabisco): Does Lucas Giolito break out next year?

Mark Barry: I was hoping he'd break out this year. I think he'll be better, but a #3 upside might be his new ceiling.

Jason (St. Charles): Who has a better career? Mike Soroka or Lucas Giolito?

Mark Barry: I'll take Giolito, just based on Soroka's injury history. And his current 60-day-DL status.

Bryant (The Bay): Is Dereck Rodriguez legit?

Mark Barry: I wish he struck guys out more, but I think a mid-high 3.00's ERA isn't out of the question moving forward.

Eitan (Israel): Is the power real for Cavan Biggio, Tor 2B?

Mark Barry: Everyone's power is real these days. I'm buying Biggio stock.

Felix (Capracorn): Fangraphs says Jo Adell is Justin Upton. Do you agree? Disappointed?

Mark Barry: I love Jo Adell. Upton has been super good, so that wouldn't disappoint me in the slightest.

Tuity Fruity (Street Sharks): Peter Alonso A.J. Reed 2.0?

Mark Barry: I hope not.

Hunter (PA): I've got Miguel Cabrera in my dynasty league and I get it: he's old, brittle, etc. But he should have SOME trade value, right? Not like... here, take him for some random alright prospect value. But like, legitimate value. The man had a .360 wOBA before getting hurt this year.

Mark Barry: I've struggled with Cabrera value all year. I was pegging him for a big bounceback, but that sure didn't happen. I get why people a skittish, so you almost have to hold and hope he's healthy-ish next season before moving him.

Kenny (Parker Street): How good is Alex Kirilloff going to be?

Mark Barry: He has been awesome since coming back from injury. He's another great contact guy that could see some benefit from big-league baseballs.

Adam Frazier (Pittsburgh): Um... has anyone noticed that I'm running a .356 OBP and a .354 wOBA? That's top 40-50 overall hitter range for both stats based on the qualified hitter leaderboards.

Mark Barry: I had not noticed this. Good looking out, Adam.

Craig G. (Formerly BP): What's Wander Javier's upside?

Mark Barry: FINALLY a Wander Javier question...I think he's easily one of the three best Wanders currently in the minor leagues. If everything clicks, he could break into the top two, without a doubt.

Dusty (Colorado): This chat is good. It would be barry good if you told me about Wander Javier's upside.

Mark Barry: Dusty stays undefeated.

Mark Barry: Gotta run, thanks everyone for hanging out. That was a lot of fun, as always. Good luck down the stretch!