Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Eddy Almaguer

Chat: Eddy Almaguer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday July 10, 2018 8:00 PM ET chat session with Eddy Almaguer.

Eddy is a member of BP Fantasy Team, focusing on dynasty leagues.

Eddy Almaguer: Hey all, I got me a Funky Buddha brew and I'm ready for your questions. Feel free to peep my Freestyle column today where I declared the top prospect of 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. https://t.co/6kHSOhJ1RR

colonel (Oxford): Hello! Thanks for your Q&A. My question is about Minor League catchers. It seems that we have more good ones than usual. I can name a dozen off the top of my (bald) head. Which Minor League catchers to you rate most likely to be good fantasy roster investments? Thanks!

Eddy Almaguer: Hey Colonel, thanks for stopping by. We've had a nice little influx of catchers recently. MJ Melendez, Miguel Amaya, Keibert Ruiz, William Contreras, Ronaldo Hernandez. Good group and more I didn't name. I think I like Ruiz the best of any catcher in the minors followed by Hernandez. Ruiz is one of a handful of teens at Double-A and has a 7.7 K% (albeit mediocre production elsewhere, but he's 19!)

jmor1717 (Anywhere): Got a shot for a championship this year, weak at SS. Get Trea, but have to move Acuna and Tatis - do I do it?

Eddy Almaguer: Oh man, hitting me with some tough ones early on. Honestly, yeah, I'd do it. Trea Turner is having an "OK" season and is going to finish with an 18/40 type season and like a .750 OPS from the 6. Especially if you need speed, go for that deal.

Larry (Pittsburgh): Fantasy keeper-wise, how would you rank Khalil Lee, Cristian Pache, and Andres Gimenez? Do you expect any of the 3 to become stars? Thank you

Eddy Almaguer: Just like you have them. Pache might have the highest upside of the bunch and could become a star if he continues progressing in the power department and learns to take a walk *and* lay off sliders. He has 80-grade defense and speed but he's got a ways to go. Gimenez doesn't have a standout tool and Lee has an awesome eye at the plate but doesn't have monster power or speed, so their star potential is capped a bit.

Logan (GA): How long before Drew Waters is a top 50 dynasty league prospect? Then how long after that is he in the top 25?

Eddy Almaguer: So...he might be one already? I'll admit I'm a little higher on him than most. To crack the top 25 he needs to keep doing what he's doing in High-A and then Double-A. Good buy candidate in leagues where his owner might not be aware of how good he can be.

Kevin (High Point): Rank these shortstops in a dynasty format - Lindor, Trea, Machado, Correa, Seager

Eddy Almaguer: Lindor, Trea, Correa, Machado, Seager

Chris (Bethesda): Should I be picking up keeper elig. Hildenberger off waivers immediately or wait until he's likely the closer next year?

Eddy Almaguer: Nah, hold off. Unless this is some sort of 30-team league, don't need him now and no guarantee he becomes closer (Reed still under contract through 2019)

Paulie (Oregon ): Does Kevin Maitan still excite anyone in the industry? The last few years people gushed over him...now it’s all negative. He’s still young!

Eddy Almaguer: It's because his body has morphed into, well, something it wasn't before. As a result his bat has slowed down and he's been a different guy overall. I'm holding in dynasty leagues but with the expectation that he might be cut at some point in the future.

coffeeguy8806 (Chicago): How do you handle Jon Gray in a dynasty format? Thanks!

Eddy Almaguer: Don't sell. I own Gray in my home dynasty and you have to trust he's going to get back to form. I trust he can still be the guy who came back from injury last year and pitched 98 innings of 3.58 ERA ball with a good 19.6 K-BB%.

jmor1717 (NY): What do you expect from Andrus ROS, does he return to form? SS for me is the only hole in my hitting. I could probably get Gregorius. Need a boost in HR, RBIs, and SBs to win the league - does Gregorius offer that over Andrus?

Eddy Almaguer: I expect more across the board from Didi than Andrus, which is weird to say especially for steals but Andrus has just one SB attempt while Didi has 10 steals.

beringstorm (Tacoma, WA): In a deep 20 team keep forever league. Is it time to move on from Byron Buxton (have Yelich, Acuna, Soto, Schwarber, Robles, Adell and Luis Robert). Looking to improve my pitching and looking at Dustin May.

Eddy Almaguer: Sweet outfield! I wouldn't blame you for wanting to move Buxton but I wonder if you can get more. I love May, but Buxton should net you more. Try for guys like Sixto, Paddack, A.Reyes and work your way down.

Steve (NJ): If you were looking at players like a stock exchange, what short season Dynasty assets do you see as a penny stock with the potential to pay big dividends?

Eddy Almaguer: Excluding 2018 draftees and J2 guys, Wander Franco, D'Shawn Knowles, Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Luis Oviedo, Ronny Mauricio, Roansy Contreras, Mark Vientos, Everson Pereira

chuckbrown87 (Alabama): Who has more upside in a dynasty points league Dylan Bundy or Mike Clevinger?

Eddy Almaguer: Clevenger

Chuck (Uniontown ): What can we take, if anything, from stats below Aball level?

Eddy Almaguer: Mechanics and approach, really. What type of swing is a batter exhibiting? How is he handling offspeed pitches? Can he take a walk? For pitchers it's about seeing if they have more than two pitches and how repeatable their delivery is along with their overall stuff.

Steve (Cleveland): I know he's hurt, but what kind of upside do you see with George Valera?

Eddy Almaguer: Strong feel to hit which should help him get to some of his raw power in game. I'd say like a 25-30 HR guy with a strong slash line. Just a reminder he's 17 until November, so much can change.

Dusty (Colorado): Hey Eddy, I know you'r a huge Wander Javier guy like myself. What's the latest?

Eddy Almaguer: Still has that torn labrum, Dusty. I've lower than you think I am on Javier. Think he's average across the board and better in real life.

Perry J (Philly ): I am in a forever 5x5 roto dynasty keeper (10 keepers) that has grown sick of Kershaw. Besides Severino, Bumgarner, Strasburg - who are some SP targets that you’d suggest?

Eddy Almaguer: Stripling, Morton, Corbin, Clevinger, Bieber, Maeda are a few maybe not so obvious ones that come to mind. I'd still chase any of the elite guys like Verlander, Cole, Paxton, Bauer but they'll cost you.

Bork (Bork): Jean Carlos Encarnacion..... Braves Twitter supposes he will be HoF.... In reality how is he for future?

Eddy Almaguer: Couple of JCE questions in the queue. I think we need to see him make an adjustment at the plate if he really wants to maximize his loud tools. Right now he's a free swinger (sub-5 BB% type of guy) but because of his raw strength he can just muscle balls to his liking. He'll get exposed in High-A at this rate, I think. But if he turns that corner, we're looking at a fast riser.

Joe Joe (IA): 10tm H2H dynasty was offered Lindor, YAlonso, & Lowrie for my CSeager, Paxton and Baez. Is Paxton and Seager for Lindor fair, or is that still too much? I'm in 1st right now, so I'd like a healthy SS.

Eddy Almaguer: I'd want the Lindor side in the second deal and I think it's pretty fair but given league size I'd always pay the price of a pitcher to get the better deal. I'd hold onto Baez.

Hobbs (NY Knights): 10tm roto can keep 5 forever. In 2nd and need runs and avg. Was thinking of offering Correa&Flaherty for Lindor? Lindor can't stay this good right? Worried about trading a great 2nd half Correa for a normal 2nd half Lindor.

Eddy Almaguer: I'd make that swap. Lindor is an animal and while he won't finish 45/30, he could realistically finish 35/22 around there.

Benny (LA): Thoughts on Bryant? In 10tm H2H 6x6 w/ OBP&SLG. Pitch cats K/9, K/BB, QS. Trade my Bryant, Schwarber & McCullers for his Liindor and Springer?

Eddy Almaguer: Lot of Lindor deals trying to go down! Is this a redraft? If so, I'd make that deal. Worried this might be a little bit of a lost season of Bryant because of his shoulder. Excited for that 2019 draft discount though!

Steve (Philly): Everson Pereira got an aggressive promotion to Pulaski based on his performance in instructionals. Was it too aggressive? What have you seen/heard on him?

Eddy Almaguer: Yeah, Appy league is a hell of an assignment for someone that turned 17 three months ago. Jury is still out on whether it was too aggressive (it's only been 17 games). Pretty good feel to hit, not sure how much power he can fit into his stocky-ish frame but the dude is 17! I'd say top 150-175 prospect right now?

big boy (Elbies ): Would you rather have Tirso or a nice bowl of tiramisu?

Eddy Almaguer: Tiramisu is my favorite dessert so...

Chuck (Uniontown ): Several Braves catching prospects. Where do you see them for fantasy in future?

Eddy Almaguer: I think Contreras is ahead of the bunch with Jackson and Lugbauer next. Catcher is such a wasteland in the fantasy landscape that I never chase them as prospects. Contreras is maybe like a 15 HR, solid slash line guy.

Yak (Hillbilly land): Any standouts from 2017 draft class high schoolers, or J2 class?

Eddy Almaguer: 2017? Adell and R.Lewis are the stars so far of the draft class with Wander Franco really impressing in the Appy league. I think the former is the top prospect in 2020 (scroll up for my column!).

Jesse (SF): What do you expect from Acuna ROS?

Eddy Almaguer: 10/8, .265/.330/.450 with a hot streak here and there.

Db (DC): Considering their upcoming FAs, do you see Difo playing almost everyday next year for Nats?

Eddy Almaguer: He should get at least 400 PA unless he bombs early and the team trades for someone else. Howie Kendrick is still under contract through next year so he could be an obstacle.

The champ (Top of mountain): Of the numerous Padres teenage hitters (exclude Tatis) how have some changed their outlook this year?

Eddy Almaguer: I think Gore, Tirso, Potts, Rosario have all either remained steady or improved their stock this year. It's so easy to get lost in that system, man. Take Hudson Potts. He's 19 in High-A with a .827 OPS. That's really damn good! His 13 HR don't jump off the page but simply by way of maintaining a steady course he's raised his stock because he's sustaining his performance against older competition.

Kevin (Manchester): I know player comps are stupid, but who is a good comp for Yordan Alvarez?

Eddy Almaguer: I'm not good at comps. At the plate maybe Jesus Aguilar or maybe Jose Abreu with better approach, more Ks? Someone feel free to chime in

Chuck (Uniontown): Will Tebow play in majors someday? I believe so.

Eddy Almaguer: O/U 30 percent chance it happens this season. Whatcha taking?

Ghost of McGuire (Midwest): Oscar Mercado, Bader, Randy A, J A Garcia..... these guys seemed destined for part time in Stl. Should we be investing in any? Will their ultimate positions depend on if they stay w Cards? Any of them good enough for Cards to make room or clear space to play in 2019?

Eddy Almaguer: Bader has to have some sort of regular role in 2019, I'd imagine. But man, that OF is clogged up pretty bad. I like Mercado a lot and I think Arozarena is classic Cardinals Devil Magic material but it's a legit question if they're going to debut in a STL uni. Semi-related, keep an eye on Elehuris Montero. He was a preseason breakout pick of mine when I did my top 50 for prospects1500.

Keith (Spain): Taylor ward is nice player yes? More?

Eddy Almaguer: Nice numbers but not something I'm bothering with until he's actually producing numbers at the major league level.

Vin (LaLaland): Any players in AAA, playing part time in majors, etc that you can see a breakout if they got dealt? Toles comes to mind

Eddy Almaguer: Toles is actually #1 in my Stash List coming out Thursday. We haven't seen him enough against LHP to determine whether he can handle them (and thus breakout), but he's fared well in the minors this year against them. Is Mark Canha a bad answer? Colin Moran is having a solid season and I think he can tap into more power with this new profile of his.

Shawn miller (F4l): Jarred kelenic a top 10 guy for you? wow thus far huh?

Eddy Almaguer: Top 10 overall? Nah. Top 10 in Mets, yeah definitely. Only 12 games but hey, better than a bad 12 games!

Big Jim (The woods): How do you look at player evaluations for franchises that may sign FAs to block them? Meaning not top tier guys for prospects

Eddy Almaguer: So something like Machado becoming a Yankee and Andujar getting screwed? Or when AGon signed with the Mets and blocked Dom Smith? It's not something you can really plan for, unfortunately. I don't pay attention to that until it happens.

Mark (Tallahassee ): Nimmo been struggling a bit lately but overall seems legit. What are your thoughts on him in a keeper league?

Eddy Almaguer: He's probably last round/minimum budget for you. I'd hang on to him but would certainly like to see him snap out of this extended slump.

Rude dude (Firehall): If you could change any fantasy categories from standard used, which ones and why?

Eddy Almaguer: OBP in place of AVG, QS instead of W. Seeing your hitter take a walk and not get rewarded for it in AVG is so lame and removes such a huge component of the game. Wins because they're an absolutely horrible category and I don't like the luck associated with them. In deeper leagues (15+) SV+H instead of saves.

Popeye (The pier): Give me a few setups guys that could close either later this year or in next year or two

Eddy Almaguer: Trivino, Yates, Reed, Steckenrider, J.Hughes, Ottavino, Leclerc, S.Dominguez, J.Hicks

Fuzzy (Cubbie): Alzolay ever get a chance to start for Cubs in next year? Their current group seems set

Eddy Almaguer: I don't know how much more Chatwood they can take. That might be his opening at some point.

Rusev (Main event): Who is SF going to emerge in OF as the player to buy in on ? Mac, Slater, Duggar, etc?

Eddy Almaguer: I've been in on these guys at different times. Bummed Mac didn't pan out. I'm on Duggar now. Really solid floor of skills that should keep him in the lineup, but the fantasy appeal is minimal.

Sausage maker (Brew town): Will Erceg adjust and fulfill potential as a power hitting 3b?

Eddy Almaguer: I'm a little concerned he won't. Lasts eason he popped everything up into the air with his uppercut swing and he's doing it again this season.

buddy (Bunola): Kilome and Morales.... whom you buying?

Eddy Almaguer: Give me Francisco. Needs some serious work on command but he's striking out 30 percent as an 18-year-old in full-season ball.

Neal H (7 springs): Give me a prospect who lost a lot of luster or stature since spring that you can see turn it around. Talking poor results not injuries

Eddy Almaguer: Hmmm does Willie Calhoun count? Everything but the power is the same as last season. I haven't seen a reason for the drop in home runs but if he gets them back (and with his plus hit tool he should be able to), then he'll be back to being a dude.

Sausage maker (brew town): Isn’t that correctable for Erceg? Swing adjustments

Eddy Almaguer: It is, but what's stopping him from making the switch? Looks like he's stagnated a bit. Still a little younger than his competition so he has time, but I'm OK letting someone else hold him for now.

Dusty (DC): Where do you hope to see yourself in 5 years in terms of baseball? Scout? Media? Work for an organization? Bigger websites? What’s the goal?

Eddy Almaguer: Good question! I'd love to be a little deeper in the fantasy industry and move beyond just writing articles, but ultimately I realize that I'll still have a day job and do this as a passion that gives me a little spending money each month. Podcasting and videos would be neat.

Db (DC): How many games you see a year in person?

Eddy Almaguer: Try to go to one every couple of weeks. Less than I'd like to see! But it's been nice to visit the Tarpons (Yankees High-A) a few times this season. First year living in Tampa.

Benny (LA): The Bryant/Lindor deal earlier is a keep 15 forever. Change your mind at all?

Eddy Almaguer: Ugh, I think I hang on. Lindor and Bryant are on pretty equal footing in dynasty value. I think I like McCullers and Schwarber more than Springer. Fair deal all around.

rocky mountain high (....Colorado ): Daniel Montano..... something or nothing

Eddy Almaguer: Eh. Ceiling of an average player. I'd find someone with more exciting tools.

DB (DC): Elehurias Montero dude is already owned in both my dynasty leagues. Good tip though. He one of those pickups we just gloss over.... and by the time hear more realize he been gone for a while

Eddy Almaguer: Yeah man, he's pretty damn good. Gone in my industry leagues as well. Other managers, act now if your league is deep enough!

Bob (Denver): What podcasts can we hear you on? Caught you with the Welsh, and really got a lot out of it. Thanks.

Eddy Almaguer: I'm on none regularly, Bob. But I'd definitely love to appear on more, I really enjoy them. I'll pass this along to Welsh and guilt him into having me on again.

Chuck (Uniontown ): Low level Bucco talent..... who ya like... Cal Mitchell, LoLo, Mason Martin, others?

Eddy Almaguer: Mitchell best of the bunch. Strong feel to hit. Actually just shipped him and Paddack for Morton in the Rotowire Dynasty Invitational (20tm standard dynasty) where I'm making a push.

Swillie (LVC): 10tm H2H dynasty guy offered me Lindor, YAlonso, Lowrie for CSeager, Baez and Paxton. I'm in 1st so Seager is wasting away right now. Is Seager and Paxton too much for Lindor? Other SPs are Stras, Cueto, Snell, McCullers, among others.

Eddy Almaguer: Think I answered this already? I'd make the Seager/Paxton for Lindor deal.

Dust man (Denver): Thanks for the chat. Enjoy your work. I think your a name/writer/evaluator on the rise in fantasy baseball.

Eddy Almaguer: Much appreciated, Dust man. I'm nowhere near where I want to be but I'm working to get there.

Eddy Almaguer: Well, that warm message is the best way to end it. Thanks again for joining, I hoped you learned something. Find me on Twitter @EddyAlmaguer. Always happy to answer your questions there as well.