Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Scott Delp

Chat: Scott Delp

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday July 06, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Scott Delp.

Scott is a member of the Baseball Prospectus fantasy and prospect teams.

Scott Delp: Hello everyone. I'm looking forward to spending some of this great Friday afternoon with you. Let's get to your questions...

cracker73 (Florida ): What is the absolutely best outcome for Akil Baddoo? It looks like he can hit for average but does he have power potential?

Scott Delp: There is definitely the potential for some power there. Best outcome is a 20-20 CF. The big jump in K rate this year is a concern for me though.

Mike (Georgia): Is Drew Waters a top-20 fantasy prospect by year's end? 25 worst case?

Scott Delp: Top 20-25 seems a bit aggressive. I'd like to see a better walk rate than what he's currently putting up before I go all in. Even so, I'd put his best case fantasy prospect ranking in the back half of the top 100.

James (NY): Hi Scott. On a scale from Ty Kelly to the second-coming of Daniel Murphy where exactly does Jeff McNeil fall?

Scott Delp: As a long-suffering Mets' fan, I hate to say that McNeil seems a lot closer to the Kelly end of that spectrum. He's done some nice things to get on the radar in the last couple of seasons, but he's 26 years old and should be expected to dominate the relative infants in AA. Numbers from Vegas, as we have seen with some other Mets' prospects, are not good indicators.

John (Harrisonburg): What's going on with Grant Holmes and James Kaprielian? I get they're both hurt, but there aren't even like updates lately. Is this going to be a lost season for both of them?

Scott Delp: There are reports here and there. Kaprielian has recently begun throwing again after having had some shoulder discomfort while rehabbing his TJ injury. Holmes is less clear. There was a vague shoulder injury that was deemed likely severe and not much since then. With either one, shoulders are more scary for me than elbows. With Kaprielian back to at least some activity there is some hope there, but the timetable for either one is up in the air right now. Lost season would be the best guess.

Alex (Ky): George Valera - is the hype to be believed?

Scott Delp: It's never good to believe all the hype regarding a 16 or 17 year old prospect, but Valera has some great tools. He has enough barrel control that the power has a chance to come through and there is a good chance he stays in CF. He does seem to be injured right now so his run through the AZL is on hold.

Lefty08 (Work): What does Chad Spanberger need to do to become a legit prospect. He has been killing low minors pitching and looks to have a ton of upside, especially in Colorado. Your thoughts on him?

Scott Delp: He has to have this kind of success at a more age appropriate level. He's going to turn 23 in November and he's playing in A-Ball in a park that really inflates lefty power. The power is certainly there, but the walk rate is a bit slight. I'd want to see him do this at High-A soon to be a believer.

Bryson (MD): How would you view Max Muncy in a dynasty format? Is he a poor man's Josh Donaldson?

Scott Delp: That's a good comp in a lot of ways, though I'd expect his career arc to be even more narrow. In fact, if I had him under control for several more seasons, I'd look to deal him soon. The landscape is full of guys who came to the majors at a later age and had quick success and then a quick flame out.

zapotter (NY): Any particularly positive or negative reports on Bubba Thompson, so far?

Scott Delp: Reports are that he has been coachable and willing to learn. As someone who was focused at least equally on footbal in HS, that's something that will help him. There is always a lot of variance with premium athletes, but Thompson is seemingly giving himself his best chance.

Zack (NY): Brenan Hanifee has impressed over his first two pro seasons. What is his upside if everything breaks right?

Scott Delp: The upside is back end rotation. He currently lacks a consistent third pitch and he is posting some mediocre K rates in A-Ball.

Carl (MI): Are you a believer of Alex Kirilloff?

Scott Delp: Definitely. Considering his missing year of development, his performance this season is impressive.I'm interested to see a bigger sample size in High-A. Hoping to see him when he comes to Daytona later this season.

steelydanu (Lebron Land (Current)): Acuna vs Soto? Seems to be that with Acuna getting hurt (and now returning), Acuna is not mentioned in ROY mentions. Yet, his stats right are just a worthy as Soto's with BA going to Soto right now...your thoughts?

Scott Delp: On the surface, Acuna and Soto are very similar, but if you look a bit more closely, you can see Soto as the more interesting player, by a little bit. Acuna certainly had an amazing run through the Braves' system last year and has followed up this year when healthy. Soto has had a similar run this season (at the same age 19 as Acuna was last year), but has done it at higher levels. Soto is 10 months younger, he has much better K and BB rates and many of his other peripherals are better as well. Most evaluators had Acuna with slightly better tools going into 2018, but Soto is clearly getting more out of his so far.

Dominic (San Diego): I’m in a full rebuild and my roster space is limited. But I was offered Jake Bauers, Byron Buxton, and Maikel Franco for my Nick Senzel. Good deal for me, or does quality > quantity win out?

Scott Delp: That a tough call Dominic given Senzel's helth struggles this season. While the finger surgery is one thing, the vertigo problem is something else. He did seem to make a recovery from that vertigo briefly before the finger injury, but you never know about something like that. If you are in a rebuild, it's nice to get three young-ish players for one, but Buxton and Franco are not such legitimate guys on which to build. They are depth pieces at best. Comes down to Bauers versus Senzel. Personally, I'd keep Senzel or look for a better deal for him.

Cubbie Bear (Chi-Town ): Yordano Alvarez seems to have excellent SZJ and power to all fields. Am I reading too much into the numbers? All this at age 20 in AA. What’s holding him back in the prospect rankings?

Scott Delp: What has held him back is that he has not been quite this good until this season. There was always a position question and if he would have to move to 1B, then there was the question of whether there was enough hit/power. He hit only 12 homers in around 400 ABs across two levels last season. You should expect to see some movement for him in midseason rankings. I think Fangraphs had him in the top 35 or so in their update.

David (Tacoma): What are your thoughts on George Valera?

Scott Delp: I gave some thoughts on Valera earlier...

Zack (NY): Do you think Jahmai Jones' offensive development has stagnated this year due to his positional switch?

Scott Delp: I think it is certainly more difficult to transition from the OF to the INF than it is to go the other way. It makes sense that could account for at least some of Jones' downturn this season. It might be best to focus on the positives in that he has improved his walk rate a good bit. A more selective Jones may be an even better offensive player once he is completely comfortable at 2B.

Gerald (Dakota): Been offered Verlander for Ohtani in a keep forever without salaries, h2h format. Talk me into it or talk me out of it please.

Scott Delp: Verlander turns 36 in February. Ohtani turned 24 yesterday.

cracker73 (Florida): Kris Bryant’s power was down last year, compared to 2016, and down even more this year even before his apparent injury. Do you think that 2017 is more representative of who he is as a player rather than 2016?

Scott Delp: Power, in the form of number of homers, is a somewhat unpredictable number unless you are talking about the truly elite bombers (JD, Judge, etc). Bryant's SLG was similar last season to what it was in 2016. The injury is a good explanation for the drop this season. Fully healthy, he is a good source of pwoer, though the number of actual homers will likely fluctuate.

Dusty (Colorado): How much has Wander Javier's long term potential been affected by his injury?

Scott Delp: Dusty, it seems you should be the guy we all come to with Wander Javier questions rather than the other way around at this point. Torn labrums are not the best injury for shortstops. There is a chance this moves him to 2B. Not a huge deal, but something to consider. Let's see what happens when he comes back and see where he is. The tools should not have changed anywhere else.

Jett (Skyward): How good can Royce Lewis be? Is he a top 6-8 SS by 2023?

Scott Delp: Given what we've seen so for, top 6-8 looks like his floor. Hope to see him in Fort Myers later this season.

Potato Latkes (The Table): Carter Kieboom just keeps hitting. Where are you on him? Does him replacing Murphy at 2b in 2019 sound about right to you (assuming he isn't traded).

Scott Delp: Replacing Murphy to start the 2019 season seems a bit aggressive. With Difo in the fold, the Nats can be patient and not start Kieboom's clock any earlier than necessary. Getting his feet wet in AA right now, he's certainly on track to get his chance sometime in 2019, though.

John (Harrisonburg): You're the A's. What do you do?

Scott Delp: I don't go for it. If I'm the A's, I'm not willing to give up what it would take to get enough impact talent back. Best case, I'd be playing in a wild card game. I'm likely seeling anything that might bring a decent return that's not part of the future (Lowrie).

Potato Latkes (The Table): Carter Kieboom just keeps hitting. Where are you on him? Does him replacing Murphy at 2b in 2019 sound about right to you (assuming he isn't traded).

Griffin Canning (LAofA): How good of a fantasy pitching prospect am I? Concerned about the walks?

Scott Delp: Walks are never a good thing, but the big thing with Canning is his health. Let's give him a chance to acclimate to AAA before getting too worried. He walked a few in his first several AA starts as well and eventually righted himself.

George (San Diego): What do you think of Esteury Ruiz as both a real life and dynasty prospect?

Scott Delp: I write a deep dynasty names column twice a month based on names that pop on an excel I use to find guys to draft in my minor league free agent drafts. Ruiz was a name that popped after the 2016 season. I like him both ways, but the steals are fantasy gold. He'll hit no matter what, though there is more swing and miss than I'd like. The big question is position. He does not have the softest hands and he has played a good bit of third base this season. A move to the outfield would not be a surprise, but the bat should still play.

Yordan Alazarez (Houston): You missed the part where I was beast in the first half last year, and then played through a wrist injury.

Scott Delp: I didn't know you wanted me to make excuses for you. You actually missed the first month+ of the season in 2017 and struggled a bit in your first month back. There was a monster month of June, but then some more struggles in the move to High-A. Not sure when the wrist injury (which I know cost you the beginning of this season) occurred exactly. Sorry if I offended you :)

jpeterhobbs (NH): Solak, Kevin Smith, Jazzy Chisholm, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe. I think we have a lot of talented and interesting MI prospects. How do you rank the guys above and can you give me one little snippet of info on each? Thanks

Scott Delp: I've seen Solak a couple of times this season and I like him. The power/speed combo he's showing is pretty good. Franco's plusses and minuses have been beaten to death on this site (thanks Dusty). Lowe has really advanced the hit tool this season. Chisholm has the power but the hit tool is still a question. Smith is adjusting well to High-A and showing skills similar to those of Solak. I'm not a huge ranker as things are so fluid with prospects, but I'd group Solak, Lowe and Smith similarly with Chisholm slightly behind. Franco is a wild card for me with the injury and inexperience.

Cameron (LA): Have you gotten any looks at Justin Rodrigo? I've been reading good things.

Scott Delp: Rodrigo has thus far eluded me. Sorry...

Scott Delp: Thanks all for the questions. I enjoyed the time. If you have any other questions or comments, tweet at me @frugalscott Thanks again!