Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday June 15, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey is the lead prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the BP Mets podcast, For All You Kids Out There.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not a particularly exciting World Cup so far, perhaps chat will be livelier

Denny (PepsiCo): Juan Soto a top 20 outfielder going forward?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Aim higher

Chansen8895 (San Jose ): Where do you think Chris Paddack would land in your top 100?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's on the long list for the Midseason 50 with a decent chance of making it. That would put him in the 50-75 range on the 101. Note that he would have made it two years ago if he would have stayed healthy.

Josh (Conway): What is Jahmai Jones? Is he going to be a star at the next level?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've liked Jones since he was an amateur, but it's more polish over big tools and I think he's more a good regular than a star

Max (Boston): Biggest prospect on the rise in rankings this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Based on our sketched out midseason 50 tiers, The Jesus Lizard (mostly because I was a coward and didn't push him hard last offseason), Jo Adell, Keston Hiura, Austin Riley, Lazarito, Griffin Canning

Mike (NY): So will Brooklyn get any young players or are they loading up on college bats and arms to run for that elusive NYPA championship??

Jeffrey Paternostro: The roster can all spend plenty of off time at Margarita Island.

I am at least vaguely interested in Juan Uriarte, Luis Silva, and Jaison Vilera.

Chris (LA): What are your thoughts on Alex Kirilloff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I probably was a little too cautious last offseason because of health uncertainty, will rectify that at midseason.

Rob (New York): Who are some guys currently in the top 100 prospect lists that you see shooting up the rankings? Luzardo, Kieboom, Mountcastle?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah those two guys are moving up too, although it's a more steady rise than big jump.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): Jeff, this criticism is meant to be constructive. These chats from the prospect team need to happen more often. They're so awesome and your team does great work. The prospect teams from other publications are chatting with us 1-2 times per week though. They're a huge draw.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I know and I planned to make them weekly this year and then forgot for a month. They should continue on Fridays going forward.

a.j. (las vegas): if you are sandy alderson what are you asking the Yankees for Degrom that you think they would say yes to?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the Yankees are a bad fit for this deal, despite the metric ton of 1000-word columns you will get on this from the tabloids between now and the deadline (and frankly, there isn't much else to write about with the team, so fair play). The Yanks don't really have the prospects to make a deal, so the top piece would have to come from the major league team. You just aren't getting Torres, and I don't think you get Andujar either. Frazier isn't headlining a deal for a top five pitcher in baseball with 2.5 years of control. The Dodgers and Angels make more sense to me. Obviously any of the competitive NL East teams could make something happen too, but I can't see them dealing in the division.

Jordanna (Brookyln): So you got a bad Peter Alonso look? Thats disappointing

Jeffrey Paternostro: It wasn't bad. He was fine when I saw him. Didn't drive the ball, but I know it's 70 Raw. Showed me what I needed to see, an improved swing and approach. I'm writing something longer about him now and then general perils of the R/R first base profile. He's on the long list for the Midseason 50, although I am doing my best to ward up certain other prospect writers trying to get him on.

Keith (Nebraska): Should enyel be getting a lot more love than he gets?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yes. He got buried in a loaded Padres system and then got dealt to one of the few systems with MORE interesting arms than the Padres. I don't think it's huge upside, but he's got 3/4 potential with a good bullpen fallback if it doesn't completely coalesce as a starter,

Barney (Bedrock): Chances vlad moves to 1st base?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I thought he could maybe hack it for a year or two at third if they wanted to shoehorn him in this year (and they should have wanted that), but his medium term home was always going to be 1b/DH.

Jake (State Farm): What do you make of Heliot Ramos? Had a good Fall League, but seems to be struggling mightily in A Ball.

Jeffrey Paternostro: David Lee saw him this year and loved the tools while noting "He’s noticeably raw at the plate by being susceptible to sequencing, and he’s ultra-aggressive. He’s going to have his three-strikeout nights in the South Atlantic League this year." A-ball was going to be an aggressive assignment for him, and while you'd like to see more performance, it hasn't been a disaster, and I don't think the underlying projection has changed yet. He was always a bit rawer and riskier than guys like Adell and Lewis coming out of that draft.

Chris (CA): What do you think of Calvin Mitchell? Any chance for top 100 over the next year or so?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I got a brief look at him, nothing much beyond "okay, I get it." Jarrett Seidler got a longer look and came away impressed. He's the type of profile we tend to like, and yeah he's probably a 101 candidate if nothing else this offseason.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): Is Jo Adell pushing top 20 prospects in baseball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That might be low

Ben (Colorado): Jo Adell - a top 10 prospect by end of season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Getting closer

Carl (Singapore): Is Jesus Sanchez a top 25 prospect yet, or does this need to be seen in the high minors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think because of the profile, I'm going to want to see it in the high minors, and he'll end up behind like Taylor Trammell, fairly or unfairly.

Sean99 (Bronx): I'm excited to see Loaisiga tonight. Is he a reliever eventually?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The track record of righties with that height and that injury history sticking as starter's isn't great, but Loaisiga throws strikes and also can manipulate the breaking ball well. The temptation to let him lose in the pen is going to be strong though. I would not be shocked if he is a multi-inning weapon in the playoffs for them. Stuff is that good.

Chansen8895 (San Jose): what are your thoughts on Garrett Hampson this season and what his future role might look like?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I described Hampson to a scout as a guy that's really a 45, but I have no choice but to 5 him. He just wins you over across multiple looks. He's a 70 runner, solid enough SS (thought he was better there than Rodgers), strong approach, pesky hitter. The main blemishes here are the swing has a fair bit of moving parts, and there just isn't much power projection. So he's probably a second division type guy/good infield bench piece. But man I will not be shocked if he's a solid starter for a few years.

Ashley (Albany): No Wander Javier question yet?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh there's a few, but I can't tell which ones are from the real Dusty. No time for fake Dustys

Fred (Pa): How high on the top 100 can you see Brandon Marsh jumping over the next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He will probably make it, but I am guessing lower than other places. I just don't love the swing personally. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. But I just find it hard to push those guys, even with the rest of the staff yelling in my ear.

a.j. (las vegas): How close should the Brewers be to calling up Hiura and moving Villar to SS

Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess you have to give him another few weeks at Double-A to get a little better feel, but I wouldn't wait too long past that. Not much to lose other than service time.

RetroKryptonite (OKC): Hey, Jeffrey. The Tigersā€™ rebuild feels a bit lopsided - heavy on pitching, light on everything else. The Cubsā€™ and Astrosā€™ rebuilds were very different. How do you think the Tigers are doing so far, and do you think being so pitching-heavy will lengthen the process? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: So you can always trade the pitching for other stuff if it works out. Obviously I think you take Mize, but he's also pretty close to what he's going to be, and it seems silly to keep him down for a while to maximize the years you have him in the competitive cycle. I think the bigger issue with the rebuild so far, is they haven't really gotten enough top tier prospect talent yet either through trades or drafting. And Fulmer's struggles this year make him a less enticing trade chip to try and cash in.

Birdzfan (Baltimore): Okay, so you don't see the Yanks as a fit for DeGrom... Fair enough. How about Hamels? I've seen stuff written for that future deal, too. He's older, not as good, only a rental... Do they have the prospects to make that happen? I think so.

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the Yanks need another good starter for the balance of the season. So basically do you want a Game 2 starter or a Game 3 starter. This is a little overly prescriptive of course, but Hamels feels like a Game 3 dude at this point. That said, despite a plethora of uncompetitive teams creating a buyer's market, most of the reason those teams are all uncompetitive is they don't have Game 2 playoff starters kicking around.

Ryan (NJ): Is David Peterson and Justin Dunn stock up? Or were the assignments so conservative that their stock is holding steady?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, there hasn't been an underlying change in the stuffer either and Dunn was a repeater. The Peterson assignment was particularly baffling. Even if you regret sending Dunn to St Lucie in 2017, they are vasty different types of pitching prospects. I'm catching Dunn tomorrow and he may end up a Ten Pack. But we have like 20 staff looks at him over the last two seasons and a distinct pattern has emerged.

Ben (SD): Bobby Witt Jr the next can't miss prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Soooooo there's a lot of Bobby Witt, jr questions and while obviously I have heard about him for years, the correlation between 1.1 dudes a year out and 1.1 picks isn't as strong as you'd think. Beyond that I have no strong thoughts.

terryallan (CO): Brandon Nimmo ROS projection? Is he more valuable than Conforto in fantasy the rest of this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: In an OBP league, probably. I think the current line might not be that far off what he is, but I suspect you might see some of those rate stats (especially power) drop if and when he sees more lefties. Maybe conservatively like .260/.380/.460

Sam (Arizona): When do you see some of the top prospects in the show? Vlad,Eloy,Senzel,Rodgers,Bichette,Tatis,Tucker,Hiura which see the show this year

Jeffrey Paternostro: These decisions tend to come off 40-man situations and team need more than you'd think. Soto probably doesn't even get promoted unless tater is an injury. That said I suspect Senzel and Hiura will be the most likely to get meaningful 2018 run. The rest of the group feel more like 2019 guys to me. Tucker is the weird one since he is just about ready, but also will struggle to break into an established Astros team this year.

Cole (MI): Can you shed some insight onto the emergence of Cedric Mullins? Looks like could be a good power/speed threat at the next level?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I dunno if its an emergence per se. We liked him plenty last year. I am curious if the improvements from the right side are real or just noise. I don't know if he's huge power/speed threat, probably more a 15/15 type guy. Perhaps some 20/15 of 15/20 seasons in there if he gets 600 PA

brendonkuhn (Vancouver): Danny Jansen should be getting more hype, right? 23 year old C who has mashed for 1.5 years now since getting eyewear to fix his vision. Should he be called up soon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Catchers are weird. But yes. They are amazing specs too.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): I know he's incredibly athletic, but Kopech's strike throwing ability long term seriously has to be questioned at this point, right? Looked like he had turned the page at the end of last season, but been regressing all year. 8 BB on 40% strikes in 3 IP last night, woof.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I mean for all my huffing and puffing about not getting talked into hitters I don't like by the rest of the staff, I've never been a huge Kopech fan and have put up much less of a fight about his rankings. There bigger concern for me was the idea of taking some off the FB to add some command doesn't appear to be working, so what do you do now. I still think he's a very valuable major league arm, I just am not convinced it will be in the rotation.

Pete (Bronx): Have you stopped by the Mikkeler Brewery at Citi Field yet? Arguably the Mets best move of the offseason.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Only been to one Mets game this year, but I have friends in Queens and may just skip the game and go to the bar next time.

Rex (DC): Jeff Hoffman finished?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will never bet against a dude with that stuff somehow popping up as a shutdown reliever in two years, but as a starter a Rookie, yeah just about.

Alastar (Baltimore): Where is Wander Franco expected to play this year? Have there been any reports on how he is looking?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Which of the five Wander Francos is this? I assume its the Rays one and I have heard Princeton.

Joe (Anaheim): Has Adell's ETA changed at all? You guys and FanGraphs both had him at 2021. Is 2020 within sight at this point?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure and 2019 isn't out of the question frankly.

Barry (NJ): Best 2b dynasty prospect and best SS prospect in baseball in 2020 are....

Jeffrey Paternostro: I appreciate this for at least not making the fantasy question even thinly veiled. They are probably both still shortstops in 2020 and let's go with Royce Lewis and fuck it, Bobby Witt Jr

chris (charlotte): are drew waters or mj melendez top 100 dynasty prospects now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd assume you'd want Melendez over Waters since the bar for offense for catchers is so low.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): Seems like Leody Taveras has been a guy that could explode at any minute.. for 1.5 years now. I know he's been young for every level he's played, but in the grand scheme of things, at what point do you look at a prospect and just acknowledge that breakout may never happen?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Once the tools and projection start to backslide. They haven't so far.

Luke (NY): So 90th percentile Nimmo is a 65?

Jeffrey Paternostro: 65 is not a grade.

Max (CT): Is Andres Gimenez gonna steal 40 bases this year? If he finishes with a .775 OPS in the PSL as a 19 y/o with middle infield defense and speed, he has to be a top 50 national guy, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably but I struggle with what the upside is here. He's a weird profile, very advanced, but is it realllllly 6 hit/45 game pop/5 SS glove. I dunno. That's kinda what is has to be to be Top 50. He is on the long list for Midseason, and if he makes the back end that usually susses out at like 40-75 in the offseason.

Chansen8895 (San Jose): Should we believe in this Ross Stripling breakout?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Let's see him stay healthy as a starter for a few months and revisit.

Robert (California): In a keeper league, would you rather Jesus Luzardo or Casey Mize? Who do you see reaching the majors first?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So Mize could/should reach the majors first, but I don't expect the Tigers to necessarily get him there first, if that makes sense. I'd rather have Luzardo regardless even with the previous TJ.

Mike (NY): About Juan Soto??? Are we about to see the greatest age 19 season of all time???

Jeffrey Paternostro: So Mel Ott hit .322/.397/.524. That seems...doable.

Luke (NY): Ok, so 65 is not a grade. so is this nimmo closer to a 6 or a 7?

Jeffrey Paternostro: 6, because of the platoon issues. And we still need to see it for longer regardless.

Sam (NYC): Dalton Varsho and Ronaldo Hernandez: what are their upsides? Do they stay at catcher? They both seem really interesting for fantasy purposes - Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I like Hernandez a more at present. Slightly better bat, better chance to stick.

Gyorgi (Georgia): Brusdar Graterol is the next big thing, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Pitchers are rarely the next big thing. Dunno why, just seems to work out that way. Might be because they don't have the day by day performance to track. He's a guy whose gonna jump though, yeah.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All right, we'll be back same time next week. I will probably not have any new Bobby Witt, jr info for you.