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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday April 27, 2018 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey is the senior prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus, and co-host of the BP Mets podcast, For All You Kids Out There.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All right let's do the thing.

Kanye West (Mar-a-Lago): Better future: Jose Siri, Joe Dunand, or Randy Arozarena? Asking for a friend.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd probably take Siri for the upside play.

Bryson (OK): Thoughts on Yordan Alvarez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I like him, but I don't like-like him. I'm trying to break myself of the habit of poo-pooing every future first baseman, but it is thin margins for those guys without very loud offensive tools. He's done pretty much everything you can ask from that profile though, and if he shows the power over a full Double-A campaign too, it will be tough to keep him off the 101.

Matt (Rochester): Is Juan Soto in consideration for top overall prospect next season if he stays healthy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's very possible it comes down to him and Vlad, sure. Would be awful tough to get him over Vlad, but if somebody is gonna do it, it would probably be us.

Jeff (Tacoma): Which prospect have you been most impressed with so far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean Vlad is the easy answer here, but liked what I saw from Peter Lambert. Change finally showed up in the warmer weather after I filed him, and it's going to be an above-average pitch. Could see him as a backend 101 guy. Ten Pack'd Daniel Johnson and he was fun too, but it's a down EL this year outside of a couple teams.

CyMature (Cooperstown Retirement Home): Everybody wants to get a look at Nate Pearson of Toronto. He's not on the DL at Dunedin, but appears to be hurt. What do you know? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Just an oblique issue. Should pop up in the next couple weeks.

Tommy Larson (hmmm.. kids): In a balanced10 man fantasy league, wold you trade Syndergard for Corey Seager and Taillon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn't be using Syndergaard in a buy low deal, even in a dynasty setting.

Dalton (Randy): How good can Jon Gray be this year? 15-10 with a 3.6 ERA? realistic?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah I guess. Betting on ERA on Colorado pitchers is a rough one though. He'd have to go 13-6 with a low 3 ERA to get their now though. Samples aren't significant yet, but they can bring the overall line down.

Shane (Miami): Good to have a guy with Mets prospect insight. What are you hearing about the emergence of Peter Alonso and any chance they may give him a look later this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Peter Alonso questions have replaced Nick Pivetta questions in the queue this week. I'll get Bingo in a couple weeks and have more concrete thoughts, but I do have a few reports from this year already. To take the second part first, I think it's more likely they give Bruce a first base mitt or Flores the bulk of the playing time before going to Alonso, unless it's late and they are out of it. They'd also probably have to jump him over Vegas, which whatever, but it'd be a pretty significant jump for a player that still has his struggles against soft stuff. It's a rough profile as a R/R 1B that is below-average defensively, but the offensive tools are loud enough he could be like a 55 regular. Something like righty Lucas Duda is a common comp I here.

Rip Van Weedkle (Hoboville): Is Nick Pivetta for real?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not to say we don't have any Nick Pivetta questions, mind you. I think the consensus between me and 2018 Nick Pivetta BP Annual comment author Jarrett Seidler, is that it's unlikely he maintains the low HR and BB rates, and it's tough living as a two-pitch righty starter long term. Raw stuff has improved though.

Ethan (Denver): I can't understand, if the Rockies don't intend to give McMahon the gig at first why they are not letting him get everyday ABs in AAA. What's your take?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Basically the same. They've done some weird things with playing time allotment this year. Hoping Dahl parlays this into a longer run too.

Sexy Rexy (Dallas): Is the next likely service guy called up going to be Calhoun in a few days?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Rangers aren't usually big service time manipulators, but he hasn't exactly forced the issue yet. I also don't know that they really have an everyday corner spot for him at the moment. Guess we could galaxy brain him to second.

Michael (Portland, OR): Shane Bieber's streak of no walks continues through 26 IP. Where would you rank his command on the scouting scale and could he be a #2 ceiling guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's plus-plus command, but command isn't an out pitch, and it's hard to be a #2 without an out pitch.

Jason (Long Beach): Seems the A's are going to be aggressive with Luzardo. Do you think he could be a top 25 prospect by the end of the year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's...lofty...but not egregiously so.

Eric (Modesto): Concerned about Carter Kieboom's slow start?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not really, since he's about four extra singles short of this not even being a question in my queue. Victor saw Potomac recently though, so I should probably check in with him on this before I spout off too strongly.

Jason (Orem): Some publications think that of non top 100 guys, Brandon Marsh has the best chance to jump up into the top 25 prospect range. Is this reasonable given his tools?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not like crazy I guess, but I was not a huge fan of the swing last year. Top 25 is like a 7/6 or maybe a 7/55 for us, and that's a big ask. Lot of season left though, and I'm willing to be convinced by our MWL guys.

Desmond (Green Bay): How much has the poor start of Luis Castillo cooled you on him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I was in the reliever camp here even as a Marlin, but I think at some point we have to consider their might be something overriding systemically with the Reds pitching development. They have had a lot of Top 101 pitching talent come through in the last five years and haven't gotten much out of it in the majors.

Big Mac Attack (San Fran): Are you jumping on the Mac Williamson swing change bandwagon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So most of the swing change revolution guys have been dudes with pre-existing plus hit tools with good barrel control. Mac Williamson was not that dude, so I am gonna be pretty conservative here until it's way more than 19 PA.

Kolby (East Lansing): BP had an interesting write up on Yasel Antuna the other day. The bat seems to be his carrying tool. What kind of power/hit tool are we talking, if it all works out for him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Javi and Keith both saw similar things over the last two years, with Keith a little more bullish on the glove. Probably something like a 55/55 third baseman if it works out. What are the switch-hitting third baseman comps nowadays? Solarte? Antuna is more athletic at present, but the body could go that way. So I can sort of see that. (I hate comps)

Jett (Skyward): Are you buying the performances of Andrew Knizner and Sean Murphy, two of the better catching prospects?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. Always liked Murph, and been hearing about him for a while (you can probably figure out why). Bat isn't THIS good, but won't need to be with the defensive tools. Also, I will never be surprised at the Cardinals getting a pop-up prospect out of a mid-round college catching convert.

Jason (Orem): Thoughts on Tyler Mahle? Giving up a ton of homers but strikeouts and walk rate are there and getting a lot of swing and misses.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he will be fine and kinda wish I had found room for him on the backend of this year's 101. Home runs are always going to be a bit of an issue though.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Jeff. Am I wrong to be blown away by Jeisson Rosario's plate approach at age 18 in the Midwest League?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's pretty impressive, if he does end up adding power later on he could be another monster Padres prospect. Bit of an embarrassment of riches in San Diego.

Seth (Allentown, PA): Based on early season performance and things you are seeing/hearing, I'm interested if there are a few guys that were outside the top 100 going into the year that now are firmly in it?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't generally work that way and try to avoid thinking that way. The reason I stick to one full national list a year is to give us as much time to gather info. Every individual look is going to be a small sample, and you risk bouncing guys around a bunch otherwise.

AJ (North of the border): I know each site has their own evaluators and own ranks, but do you ever chat with evaluators from other publications/not from BP, to minimise the risk of being too insular in your assessments? Evaluators may rank prospects differently due to many reasons, but would be interested how much is evaluation philosophy vs. the in person looks you get.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm in a bit of a unique spot in that I have a dozenish other evaluators internally to lean on for reports and sanity checks, plus we all disagree plenty. And In-person looks are the backbone of the rankings here, but I think we all value what we see a bit differently too. Philosophy plays into it of course and I had a conversation just this week about how I am tougher on shortstop projections than others.

Chase (Newark, NJ): Who has the higher ceiling, Adell or Ramos?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eh, probably Adell, but it's not a huge gap.

Seth (Allentown, PA): Thanks Jeff. Completely understand, but a follow-up then. Are there a few guys that were outside the top 100, that are now firmly on your radar to see/hear reports?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. Seranthony (may not get him in time though), Bieber, Alonso all have EL dates circled on my calendar. Going to Lakewood specifically in hopes of catching Ogle or MacGregor.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I appear to have borked the chat interface, or it is otherwise not reloading for me, so I will have to cut this week's a bit short. We will do it again next Friday when I likely will have no new Nick Pivetta thoughts.

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