Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Eddy Almaguer

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Chat: Eddy Almaguer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday April 23, 2018 8:00 PM ET chat session with Eddy Almaguer.

Eddy is a member of the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team, focusing on dynasty-league content.

Eddy Almaguer: Welcome! Let's get this thing started.

Mark (Portland): Who do you like better rest of season in an OBP league: Kevin Pillar or Delino DeShields

Eddy Almaguer: DeShields easily. 10 BB% in 1,100+ PA plus his speed blow Pillar out of the water. I still believe.

Carl (Austin): Thoughts on Seuly Matias?

Eddy Almaguer: A 25 SwStr% rate is not great, Bob. His ability to make contact is a worry, but he's also 19 in High-A. Love the power long term. This is also a chance to plug Khalil Lee, his teammate whom I like more.

The old Professor (New York): 12 team dynasty .. his Jose Martinez for my Tanner Roark.

Eddy Almaguer: Take it. I believe in Jose and in a league like that you're bound to find SP easier.

easterbrook (ontario canada): Upcomomg draft i have the first pick Chirnios with tampa or Jarlin Garcia,,,,,,,thanks

Eddy Almaguer: Chirinos

easterbrook (ontario canada): In a Dynasty keep forever i have been offered benintindi and Reynoldo lepez and a first round pick for Acuna. should i pull the trigger?

Eddy Almaguer: Damn that's a little tough. Feels like the X-factor is what that first-round pick would net you. Right now I'm leaning Acuna.

Dusty (Colorado ): Is Wander Javier a top 10 prospect in a year? If not, how do you call yourself a prospect analyst? Thanks.

Eddy Almaguer: I wish he'd leave extended spring training already. I want to see what he does in full-season ball. I'm probably middle of the pack when it comes to hype on him. Actually shipped him for Jose Martinez 1 for 1 early this offseason.

Eric (Chicago): NEXT BIG PROSPECT NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT?

Eddy Almaguer: LUISANGEL ACUNA, RONALD'S YOUNGER BROTHER ELIGIBLE FOR JULY 2 DRAFT.

NO WAIT, BLAZE JORDAN A 15-YEAR-OLD WHO CAN HIT 500-ft HOME RUNS

Chad Pinder (Oakland): Thoughts on Tim Anderson as a dynasty league asset? Is his newfound ability to walk real? Can he be like Trea?

Eddy Almaguer: The TINO boys actually posited how close Tim Anderson can come to Trea Turner this season. The weird thing with Anderson is his plate discipline is nearly unchanged from before. No idea where these walks are coming from. However he's always had elite speed and is a really efficient baserunner. I'm still skeptical on the walks, and I don't think he'll be like Trea, but he's going to be a lot better than we thought. I hold in dynasty leagues.

Jeff (California ): Who has the highest ceiling between Corbin Burnes, Mitch Keller or Mike Soroka? All 3 seem to be #2-#3 types so far.

Eddy Almaguer: Keller. More K potential with similar control to the other two.

Rose (Golden Girls): I get the feeling Soroka might be a solid contributor for 2018. Your thoughts? Would you drop Hiura or L. Urias for him?

Eddy Almaguer: Seems like a weird pair to choose to drop from. Are you in a shallow-ish dynasty where Soroka is not owned? It's possible Soroka can contribute. But Gohara should take over Wisler's spot in the rotation and then McCarthy needs an injury to open another spot. Even then Fried and Sims might be options first. I like Urias but I think he's a little overrated.

Keith (Pompeii): Jeff Hoffman finished?

Eddy Almaguer: I could swear this question was posed a few weeks ago for my first chat. IS THIS YOU AGAIN, KEITH?! He's hanging out in Triple-A for now, still 25. Is he someone I'm looking to buy? Probably not but that doesn't mean he's finished.

Ricky (Afghanistan): This site talked me out of Severino, Andujar, Santillan, and Newcomb just to name a few over the years. I'm switching over to Baseball America. I'm just so upset.

Eddy Almaguer: Not everyone hits, Ricky. At our core we're just trying to act with the information we have at hand, whether that's scouting reports from the BP prospect team or larger bodies of work. Hope you stick around!

Jojo (SD): Is Cole Hamels a realistic comp for Jesus Luzardo or a what can reasonably be expected, i.e. how tightly should I hold onto him in dynasty as I try to go for a title this year?

Eddy Almaguer: Luzardo is the type of guy that if he avoids injury is going to climb higher and higher as the season continues. I think he's a top 20 overall prospect by season's end. I'll admit I'm not the greatest with comps, but I can say Cole Hamels was never hitting 97 from the left side. Jesus Lizard is filthy.

Warren (Australia): Would you rather own Aaron Sanchez or Jose Quintana in a dynasty league? I've been offered Sanchez & Kela for Quintana and am pretty tempted to do it.

Eddy Almaguer: Man, I'm bummed about Quintana. He lost a tick on his fastball and it seems to have made a difference. I've never been big on Sanchez. Though he's been using his changeup *a lot* this season and it's an average pitch. However results are still meh. I'd hang onto Quintana.

Dave (Williamsburg): Which prospect outside the top 100 has the best chance to shoot up the rankings this season?

Eddy Almaguer: Khalil Lee would be my answer, but if you're guiding yourself by our BP Dynasty Top 101 (where he's 97th), I'd flip my answer to DJ Peters. Get in now while the buzz is relatively quiet on him.

Kevin (Sausage and rice again?): Snell an ace?

Eddy Almaguer: Ace might be too strong, but he's looking really nice with a legitimate four-pitch mix and a fastball faster than ever before. I'd say high-end SP3.

Miller tine (Tetris champ): Jonathan hernandez thoughts? Drop giolito for him at this point?

Eddy Almaguer: Rangers High-A pitcher Hernandez? Nah, I'd bench Giolito to see if he turns it around or cut him for a better prospect.

Miller time (Napping): Corbin burnes an ace?

Eddy Almaguer: SP3

Marc (Your Living Room): Tesocar's ROS projection?

Eddy Almaguer: How about 18/15 while hitting .260/.315/.450?

Jojo (SD): How much longer is Scherzer a top 15 sp? If you were rebuilding 16 team dynasty points, trade Scherzer for Mazara/Florial/Quantrill/Luzardo?

Eddy Almaguer: Damn, that's a nice haul. I don't care much for Quantrill but Florial and Luzazrdo are two of my favorite prospects in the minors right now. Mazara is still a young bat that I fully expect to blossom into a 30/100 hitter. I expect Scherzer to be good for two more years and then start tailing off.

Keith (High as a kite): Forgot my question

Eddy Almaguer: Did you check under the sofa?

Kyle I (West Lafayette): Is Juan Soto a top 5 dynasty prospect at this point?

Eddy Almaguer: At this exact moment on April 23? No. I think he's top 15 right now and has a shot at top 5 at the end of the season if he stays healthy.

Kevin (Left my kids home alone): Should I be worried about Luis Castillo?

Eddy Almaguer: I'm at a 4 of 10 on the worry meter with him. He's lost two ticks off his fastball (but still averaging 95) but is still getting batters to chase a little more and make a little less contact. I'd buy low if possible.

Warren (Australia): I've seen Wander Javier's name pop up quite a bit in these chats (and I believe it is even a bit of a running joke now?) but to be honest I haven't paid too much attention to him as yet. However, I've now been offered him for my Jordan Hicks in my dynasty league so felt the need to ask the question. Is this a deal I need to be doing given Wander's considerable upside vs Hicks value likely tied to being a future closer (which can be fickle)?

Eddy Almaguer: Definitely a running joke. Sometimes I wonder if there's an entire cult of Dusty's lined up waiting to ask about him. I see Wander as a prospect who can be good across the board but not great at any one thing. Still needs to prove a lot. As for the deal, it's fair to take it. Just know there's a lot of fluctuation that can happen in the next three years. The good news is it's a reliever you're losing (and I don't consider them that valuable)

Keith (Charlotte): Is this just who Jon Gray is? Many pundits who work for this site talked him up this Offseason as a breakout candidate.

Eddy Almaguer: He's been one of the unluckiest pitchers is baseball this year. He's not this bad. Don't forget his great stretch last season.

cracker73 (Florida): In a dynasty points league, would you trade Sean Newcomb for Gregory Polanco?

Eddy Almaguer: Yeah. Polanco has been unlucky (.200 BABIP), is hitting the ball harder, has more than doubled his walk rate and is putting the ball in the air more (albeit too much). I like Newcomb but Polanco can be great.

Dude chad (Wisconsin ): Lourdes Gurriel ROS?

Eddy Almaguer: Eh. Wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't hit double-digit HR or SB. AL-only league or deep mixed league player.

The old professor (New York): 12 team dynasty forever.. my Matt chapman and Buxton for his Luis Castillo, Luis Urias and Adam Eaton. Yay or nay?

Eddy Almaguer: Pass. Chapman is looking legit and Buxton, well, he can be great or just bomb as he's currently doing. The other package doesn't do it for me.

Miller time (Hansens garage ): What can ya tell us about freddy mercury? And freddy tarnok? Means a lot

Eddy Almaguer: Few will ever match Mercury's stash. And digging deep with Tarnok, huh? Pretty average dude who's raw. Mid-to-low 90s fastball that can be better as he fills out. Below average change right now, fringe curveball. Braves will baby him because of the limited innings on his arm.

Eddy Almaguer: Looks like we're all wrapped up. Thanks for the questions, we'll do this again soon.