Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Eddy Almaguer

Chat: Eddy Almaguer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday February 28, 2018 8:00 PM ET chat session with Eddy Almaguer.

Eddy is a member of the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team.

Eddy Almaguer: Hey all, my name is Eddy from the BP fantasy team. Since this is my first chat I'll break down how I can help you: Prospects, dynasty leagues, redrafts, auction leagues, PS4 games, how to dance salsa, being your hype man and more. OK, great, let's do this.

Jojo (Sd ): James Kaprielian o/u 50 MLB ip this year? #2 ceiling post tj?

Eddy Almaguer: Way under. Dude doesn't even have 30 professional innings to his name. #2 ceiling sure, wouldn't gamble on him reaching it.

Keith (Oakland): A.J. Minter a closer in waiting?

Eddy Almaguer: YES. I love him and if you're in a 15-tm roto league, I highly advise snagging him. He's filthy. Has TJ in his history so Braves won't overuse, but still should be useful.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Do you think Mondesi breaks camp as the 2b for KC with Whit in CF?

Eddy Almaguer: The Royals are Mets'ing here. I don't think he breaks camp with the squad, but I do think he accrues 300 PA this year.

Chris (Baltimore): Who might you invest in late round high upside pick in a 4 year keeper? Monte Harrison or Taylor Trammell?

Eddy Almaguer: Love both these guys, but give me Trammell. Not as much injury history as Monte, played most of full-season ball as a 19 year old and improved his K% and BB%. I think he climbs even higher.

Dusty (Colorado): If everything breaks right, could we be talking about Wander Javier in the same breath as Carlos Correa in 3-5 years?

Eddy Almaguer: Ah, my very first Dusty question! And nah, he won't be that good. Would need to make SERIOUS strides in the power department to get to Correa level. I do like his plate discipline though. He should continue slowly climbing up lists.

Dust (Colorado): Is Wander Javier the type of prospect that GMs are going to beg to acquire?

Eddy Almaguer: HEY WAIT A MINUTE, YOU'RE NOT THE REAL DUSTY.

Slapnuts (Lawrence): Who ultimately wins the closer jobs in Arizona, Texas, and Atlanta? I for one would love to see AJ Minted get a shot for the Braves.

Eddy Almaguer: Ultimately as in in-season? Bradley, Kela and Viz. Like Minter but feel like Vizcaino is being overlooked. Had a strong season last year.

Jojo (Sd ): Isan Diaz is a top ___ prospect in fantasy and his ceiling is .___, __hr and __sb. Thanks

Eddy Almaguer: 150. 30 ,15. Not sure he does both in the same season though.

Shoeless Joe (Iowa): 12tm H2H 6x6 with obp & slg and IP, QS & K/9. Keep 3 of Ray in 19th, Bregman in 13th, Pham in 15th Darvish in 8th, or GSanchez in 3rd? I have picks 12and 13. Turner is the only first rounder who won’t be avai

Eddy Almaguer: Ray, Bregman and Pham. You can redraft Yu and Gary.

Ron (Texarkana): Brett Sayre ranked Shohei Ohtani, Keston Hiura, Luis Robert, Royce Lewis, and Jo Adell, respectively, as his top 5 new-signees going into 2018. Do you agree with this ranking or do you see something different that really sticks out to you?

Eddy Almaguer: I go Ohtani, Robert, Lewis, Hiura and Adell. I think Robert has #1 prospect in baseball upside.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Kopech sure looked sharp against Oakland. If he keeps his walk rate down to end of 17 levels, how long before we see him in the show?

Eddy Almaguer: July. And let me take this time to echo what you said because I think some assume Kopech was bad ALL year with control. After the futures game he made an adjustment with how he squared up with the plate. In his last 9 starts he had a 5.5 BB%

Keith (Channahon): Does Zach Davies go Kyle Hendricks this year?

Eddy Almaguer: He's been a popular pick thanks to his excellent command, huh? I don't buy it though. His K% was about 15 last year and Hendricks was up to 22 in his breakouts. Got to get soem outs on your own, especially in that park.

Todd (Beavis and Butthead's Couch): Is Tucker Barnhart a solid #2 in a 12 team two catcher league?

Eddy Almaguer: The bar for the second catcher in a two-catcher league is, "Is he a starter?" If yes, then you should be OK.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): What do you expect from Ian Happ this year?

Eddy Almaguer: 25/10 in 500 PA. Slightly better in OBP leagues than AVG. If he got 650 PA, he'd be a 30/15 candidate.

Rich (Willow Springs): I was offered Quintana for Lester and Barreto in a keep forever league. I think I need more than just Quintana. Thoughts? Anything I should be doing?

Eddy Almaguer: You can try to squeeze a little more and get a minor piece back, but I am the low man on Barreto. His production won't be unlike A.Simmons' 2017 season. And Lester, well, the candle is about to burn out. If this is a deep league (15+), I'd haggle for a second piece. If it's shallower, I pull the trigger.

Joel (Lawrence): How many players reach 40 SBs in the majors this year?

Eddy Almaguer: We can pencil in Trea, Billy and Dee. If you're bullish and squint just right, Marte should get there too. Guys with a 10% chance: B.Zimmer, C.Maybin, DeShields.

Cubbie Bear (Chi-Town): Likelihood of AJ Puk continuing to progress with his control and does the top end offer enough to allow him to be a #1 starter?

Eddy Almaguer: He needs to learn to repeat his delivery, which is tough for a big lefty like him. Also needs to refine his changeup. He's basically a FB/SL guy now (and they're both nasty so I understand not wanting to wean off of them). Can he produce #1-like numbers in his best year? Yeah. I don't think he gets there. But there's an argument he's the best lefty in the minors and he'll still be damn good.

ThunderAce41 (OKC): Does MacKenzie Gore have SP1 potential upside? How close is he to the 5 bats above him in the first-year player rankings? Talk me out of taking him above Adell....

Eddy Almaguer: ...and the guy Puk is competing with is this dude. I get vertigo when I see his curve on YouTube. I won't be the one to push you to the edge, though. Bet on the bat. Adell has 30+ HR power with some speed. MacKenzie should be great but feel like this is exactly how we viewed Groome last year.

Jojo (Sd ): Who are some ETA 2018 prospects that could help a contender in dynasty? Like outside the top 25 on the 101 (already rostered). Thanks

Eddy Almaguer: Not sure if you mean past 25th overall or outside the top 100? Woodruff, C.Burnes, Gohara, Y. Chirinos, Dustin Fowler, Chris Shaw, Sandy Alcantara, C. Stewart, W.Adames, Jose Adolis Garcia, R.Arozarena, R.Armenteros, T.Mahle.

Eddy Almaguer (Sitting in your chair): Inception

Eddy Almaguer: WHAT THE 'EFF?!

Mr. Fister (Arlington): I have picks #4 and #6 in a dynasty minors draft. Top six available are Tatis, Whitley, Bichette, Buehler, Gore, and then a group of Michel Baez, Kyle Wright, Jesus Luzardo, Shane McLanahan, Ethan Hankins and Bobby Witt Jr. Would you care to rank them by ceiling please? Thanks a million!

Eddy Almaguer: Ceiling? Hmm. Tatis, Whitley, Gore, Baez, Bichette, Luzardo, Wright. I haven't done much research on 2018-9 class, sorry! Though I have certainly heard Witt is a DUDE.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Who are some under the radar MLB starters that you think could surprise us this year with big steps forward? Not wanting to pay a premium for Castillo and/or Godley. Thanks!

Eddy Almaguer: L.Gohara, M.Mikolas, T.Williams, J.Musgrove, J.Junis, A.Heaney, B.Woodruff, N.Karns (if he starts), J.Biagini (supposed to be a starter)

Kurt (New Lenox): Can I win a 16 team league by almost exclusively focusing on hitting? Blow off arms and just hodge podge 2 start guys, starters in the RP slot, hodge podge.

Eddy Almaguer: I wish. The replacement level pitchers in today's fantasy games are worse than ever before. Especially if you're in a H2H league you need that pitching for the playoffs. You can try and make the tier of Jose Quintana starters your first, but that's as long as I'd wait.

Sean99 (Orland Park): Is Jeff Hoffman finished?

Eddy Almaguer: He's 25, Sean, give the man a chance! He needs to figure out how to use his arsenal to get guys out. With his fastball he shouldn't be striking out as few batters as he did in 2017.

zeeksam (Canada): I heard that LAA are to lower their right field fence by 10 feet? Could you confirm please. Also would you expect Kole Calhoun's numbers to increase re: home runs, as he hits left handed.

Eddy Almaguer: Yeah, it's happening.

https://www.mlb.com/angels/news/angel-stadium-will-add-more-homers-in-2018/c-267458738

That's a good article detailing how it'll affect HR. Calhoun could gain a couple more, nothing drastic.

Joel (Lawrence): Which of the "I'm a reliever converting to a starter" guys do you see remaining a starter for the longest time? Minor, Bush, A. Wilson, Green?

Eddy Almaguer: Minor because he's shouldered that workload before.

Naz (Tinley Park): Does stroman emerge as an ace this year? Debating between him and Hamels in my redraft

Eddy Almaguer: Oh dude, please don't touch Hamels this year. He is toast, forget about him. I don't think Stroman takes an ace-level leap. He turned into a two-pitch pitcher last year (Sinker, Slider) and it worked well, but I worry if he can sustain that. That said he seems pretty safe, but I think what we're seeing is what we're getting.

Jojo (Sd ): Re: trammel vs monte...what is trammel's hr ceiling? I've been viewing him as 10/30 with monte more 20/20

Eddy Almaguer: I think he's a high 'teens HR guy.

Chad (OKC): Who would be your first 6 targets in a first year player draft in a 18 team dynasty league? Ohtani is a sure #1 right?

Eddy Almaguer: Ohtani, Robert, Lewis, Hiura, Adell, Gore.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Can we just start calling Texas the land of misfit toys? Colon, Not-so-big-time Timmy Jim, Bush, Minor, Chavez. That's a lot of reclamation projects.

Eddy Almaguer: I think it's going to b e so ugly that you can't look away, and not just because of all the sexual innuendos you can make with their names.

Cheryl (Rubbing on Clint): What are your thoughts on Scott Kingery? Can he sustain his power production from last year?

Eddy Almaguer: I think he does keep some of it, but not as much as his biggest optimists might hope. Notice that it dropped after he left the launch pad that is Reading (though to be fair he hit them on the road and not just at home while at Double-A).

Zamzow (Miami Beach): Poolide here drinking my strawberry-lemon mojito and I'm salivating over the prospects of Sean Newcomb this year. Misguided fantasy?

Eddy Almaguer: Did you see that curveball he threw the other day? Nasty. His FB/CB combo is great, but man, he does not have any control. Until he fixes something to improve it, his ceiling is capped.

Salty MFer (Mom's Basement): Someone needs to tell Thor that this is Spring Training. Seems like a waste to be pumping all that gas in his first tune-up following his injury.

Eddy Almaguer: I believe Eno Sarris found that pitchers who pitch close to max effort (Thor being one) are at greater risk for injury. I'm with you. Maybe he just wanted to made sure he still had it because if you don't use it, you lose it, y'know.

Salty MFer (Mom's Basement): Over/under on how many pitchers reach 200 innings. Let's set it at 8.5. What you got?

Eddy Almaguer: I'll take the over, barely. Guys like Samardzija, Stroman and Quintana will help edge out that O/U.

Keith (Nebraska): Is this Nomar Mazara's year?

Eddy Almaguer: I hope so, Keith. I feel like he's in purgatory. His contact profile got a little worse but his batted ball profile got a little better (more FB, fewer GB). Got to remind ourselves he's still 22 and has a great pedigree. He's going to click one year and never look back.

Jojo (Sd): Cal Quantrill feels like a guy who's value might peak at call up before debut, no? Should I sell before he hits MLB?

Eddy Almaguer: I can agree with that, though that's the norm for most prospects, isn't it? I'm not terribly high on Quantrill but he's also a little overlooked. Great changeup, don't like that his Ks have been regressing. I'd tack him on as part of a larger package.

Dayton Moore (KC): We don't need to sign an outfielder. We have Bubba!

Eddy Almaguer: Don't even have the best Bubba in the minors anymore!

Vic (Bethesda): Need help making a decision on Mondesi. I can keep him for 2018 only at around pick 330 in a 15 team league. But I think his 2018 value won't be explosive. I think it's a better idea to throw him back and try and redraft him around that same pick #. If I do, he'll be 'keepable' for 4 years. Do you agree? Or, is it likely one of the other 14 owners might draft him much earlier than around pick 330?

Eddy Almaguer: He might get drafted a little before that but he's so far off radars right now that I don't think you'll have a problem snagging him again.

Keith (Nebraska): Giolito solidify himself as a mid rotation starter this year?

Eddy Almaguer: He needs his legendary curveball to come back for that to happen. I'm cautiously optimistic with him and might get a share or two. At the same time he'll be one of my first roster cuts if the need arises and he's still "meh"

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Would you tell me which current prospect most resembles Tyler Glasnow so I can make sure to avoid drafting them? Thanks!

Eddy Almaguer: In July I would have said Kopech but he rectified things. I got nothin'. Glasnow is so unique. I don't think he breaks camp (unless Musgrove is seriously hurt) but man, his stuff is so tantalizing.

Keith (Target): Is Keith Hernandez a good comp for Dominic Smith?

Eddy Almaguer: Eh, Keith had a much better eye and struck out way less and also had worse power. Outside of their positions and uniforms, not really.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): I'm not falling for the "Jharel Cotton" hype ever again. Barf!

Eddy Almaguer: Definitely a watch-from-afar pitcher.

Ric Flair (Atlanta): Whoooooooooo!

Eddy Almaguer: Wooooooooooooooooooo!

Eddy Almaguer: No better way to end my first chat. Thanks for hanging out, we'll do this again soon.