Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday January 11, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey is the lead prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the BP Mets podcast, For All You Kids Out There.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Going to start a little early today, because this will have to be a short one. Off we go!

Ceej (Pittsburgh): Think we see Tatis Jr or Vlad Jr in the majors first?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So often this depends on someone getting hurt in the majors. Both are capable of being ready by 2019, and it wouldn't be a shock if either/both get a September look, but the Padres have been more vocal about only looking for a one-year stopgap in the majors at shortstop.

Cole Whittier (Pasadena, CA): Which rookie RPs, who made their MLB debuts this season, stand out to you?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hader is the obvious answer, but he also has the best stuff/best chance to be an impact relief arm.

bob m (philly): Hey Jeffrey, Please list the following pitchers in your order of preference based on tools and upside------DuPlantier, McKenzie Gore and Michael Baez. Also, do you see a role for Harrison Bader playing in a pretty crowded Cards outfield, or does he get sent back down to play every day------he seems to have all 5 tools potentially, but what is his upside in your opinion? Thanks, Bob Bob M

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gore/Baez is close. I'd probably lean Gore. Duplantier is a good prospect, but a tier down from those two.

I've never been a big Bader guy, but I tend to not love the "five-tool dudes" that don't really have a plus on the sheet. But no reason he can't be an everyday guy for somebody, maybe somebody worse than the 2018 Cardinals though.

dantroy (SLO): First things first: Describe the state of the brand?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, I am going to a Wrestle Kingdom 12 party in upstate NY this weekend. I've already watched the entire show. So it's about where you'd expect.

Oh also the Mets signed Jay Bruce while I was out to dinner (and two bottles of wine in) with friends I haven't seen in months. So that's also about right.

Andrew (Boston): What's a name we might not have heard of but could be in the Nats top 10 in 12 months?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There's a bunch of GCL guys that Javi pestered me to include in the next ten. Ricardo Mendez was the best of the bunch.

Dave (Williamsburg): Which teenager do you like better as a prospect Juan Soto or Kevin Maitan?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Soto in a walk.

Adam (MIL): Tristen Lutz, Brent Rooker, or Lewin Diaz for a dynasty league? I know fantasy isn't your forte, but from an offensive angle, who's bound to excel more?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If Rooker can stick as an outfielder (or at least enough to retain eligibility), he probably has the best balance of floor and upside in the bat. He has some big fans on staff.

JoyBoy (Anaheim): I've heard Brandon Marsh could be a back end T100 guy already. Is that nuts?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He didn't make our 101, but he'd likely make the next 50. So not nuts.

Jeremy (KC): From an offensive standpoint, are we hyping Gabriel Arias too much? Seems like a 50/50 hit/power tool which is good but remove the good glove and it's meh, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's a 17 year-old in the AZL, we can let it breathe for a few years. But sure, it's more solid regular than star, unless the glove is really good.

Hank (Yankee ): Gleyber or Amed? Judge or Conforto? Severino or DeGrom?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gleyber, Judge, deGrom. Didn't really agonize over any of them either. First one is probably the closest due to Gleyber's injury.

Dan (Newbury): Mets prospect most likely to be on 2019 top 100 not names Gimenez or Vientos?

Jeffrey Paternostro: David Peterson is the obvious one you missed. Past that, uh...Maybe Mauricio or Hernandez have big stateside debuts? Dunn figures it out? I have been convinced we are systemically underrating righty corner bats so maybe Pete Alonso? I won't feel good about that one though.

Dan (NU): Who would the Mets have to give up for both Ian Kennedy and Whit Merrifield? Obviously this won’t happen as the Mets don’t even operate like a middle market team, but wouldn’t it make too much sense? Take on a below average, but over paid innings eater (on a team where innings are very valuable) for a second baseman with a lot of surplus value.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean Kennedy was awful last year. The general idea isn't bad, but if Kennedy was just below-average, the contract wouldn't be onerous enough to be worth moving. And of course as we all know the Mets have plenty of starting pitching, just ask them.

Boomer (Philippines): What can we expect from Michael Conforto and Alex Reyes in 2918 as both are coming off significant injuries? Are there concerns going forward? If you had to pick one over the other, for 2018 and beyond, who would you choose?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We've generally heard positive reports on both coming off their surgeries. But with Reyes we just know what the process is supposed to look like. We have a frame of reference. We've seen people come back from TJ and be fine. There really isn't a comp for Conforto's injury. So there's added uncertainty there.

Fighting Moose (Manitoba): Is there any reason to hold onto a guy like Dilson Herrera in a 16 team league with 300 minors deep?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's more a Craig question, but you should be able to find more upside if nothing else.

Vince McMahon (Stamford ): Kenny Omega or Okada ROS?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Omega is set up to have better matches. He'll get an Ibushi program, then maybe some tags with Ibushi. Will probably defend against White, maybe Juice again. Assuming he doesn't get sidedrained to much with Bullet Club internecine stuff with Cody I think he ends up higher in the Meltzers this year, even if I prefer Okada as a worker.

Fighting Moose (Manitoba): Does Teoscar Hernandez have what it takes to be an everyday outfielder in the bigs or does he fit into more of a 4th OF?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Fourth for me

Samuel (Colorado Springs): What's the realistic offensive HR and slash line for Ryan Vilade? Trying to prevent myself from getting too hyped.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Taking Coors out of it, something like .250/20 bombs while playing a decent third base seems around the median.

moehk21 (West Hollywood): Who do you prefer in a dynasty league that has OBP instead of AVG and an additional OPS category: Ryan Mountcastle or Isan Diaz? Dan vogelbach over either?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't see a path to long term playing time for Vogelbach (sorry Wilson). Diaz is more likely to stay on the dirt so I would lean him, but Mountcastle has more upside in the bat.

edwar288 (Minneapolis): I have 9 prospects on my dynasty roster and need to get it down to 5. My back end guys are Jack Flaherty, Chance Sisco, Jorge Mateo, Jose DeLeon, Yohander Mendez, and Zack Collins. Which two do I keep? Which ones might have the best trade value in a deep dynasty league?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Mateo is the obvious one from a fantasy standpoint. After that you have three arms without a clear out pitch, and two catchers that might not stick. I'd probably take Flaherty just based on floor, but I don't feel good about it. If you are short catching, hold on to Sisco. I don't feel good about that either.

a.j. (dallas): I have been posting that I feel by mid-2018 once the tigers have signed their #1pick (say brady singer) that they will have a top 2-3 system. The only other system I don't see being moved down by trades and graduations are the Padres. Who am I missing?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So we are working on the Tigers list right now, and while the system is much improved I don't think it's a top half system let along a top tier one at the moment. One player just doesn't move it that much. Granted other things can happen (i.e Michael Fulmer trade), but they were starting from a similar point as the White Sox last offseason, and haven't moved nearly as many premium pieces.

Danny (New york): How many above average relievers do the Mets currently have in their farm? What’s the o/u

Jeffrey Paternostro: Just looking at the current reliever (so not Dunn or Szapucki who might end up there), the best relief prospect is Tyler Bashlor, who has shown major-league-quality command for like two months. But between him, Blackham, Uceta, and all the dudes they traded for you can hope for like 2.5 quality relief arms I'd say.

Frank (Las Vegas): What do you think Monte Harrison is capable of doing in the home run department year to year? Does he have the most upside of Milwaukee's outfield prospects?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Our #1 Monte fan Uncle Jack had plus raw on him this year, so 25 home runs is not out of the realm of possibility. Probably less upside than Brinson even still, but it's within the fudge factor now.

Charles (Portland ): Will Kolby Allard get a shot this year? Is it too much to expect him to pitch well in the majors at 20?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The Braves don't have a real need to find out, but he was better at Double-A at 19 than I expected, and it isn't like you are waiting for him to project much.

Keith (Kansas): Thoughts on whether you think D.J. Peters can cut down the strikeout rate and be a middle of the order type bat for the Dodgers or whoever they traded him to.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Something something, we are too low on righty corner bats. He's never gonna make a ton of contact, and I think the good outcome here is more 2017 Trey Mancini than middle-of-the-order star.

Jarett (Dc): Most underrated Mets prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I can't really tell whose underrated from the inside. I guess the most flack we got for a ranking on that list was Nido, so maybe him. It's possible we are all overreacting to Flexen getting press-ganged into the major league rotation too, but I don't think we really are.

Nick (Jersey): HI Jeffrey. How do you see Wander Javier slotting in with Wednesday?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Desperately need some help at fullback right now. Well, really everywhere. If he's healthy put him in the XI

Izzie (Brionx): Initial reactions on Callahan/Rhame? Also, do either Lagares or TJ Rivera have moderate (or above) trade value? Who has more

Jeffrey Paternostro: They looked like potentially decent middle relievers. The stuff didn't hugely pop for me. Slightly preferred Callahan, but it was also like ten innings.

They've been quietly trying to deal Lagares for a while and gotten no bites so...

Rivera is 29 and coming off TJ so...

Lagares on track record, though the contract is sneaky bad in a market where the good free OF free agents aren't even getting bites.

Jeff (Us): Of Astros get/got cole for a package without Tucker or Whitley? Does that make it look like He Yankees are over blowing their prospects? (Because pirates reportedly turned down Frazier+Adams package)

Jeffrey Paternostro: As we know now they didn't. But I also don't trust any leaked reports on offers, because who ever is leaking is leaking for a reason. That said I'd take Frazier/Adams over pretty much any non Whitley/Tucker package the Astros could put together. But I am one man, and I don't work in the Pirates FO. So it just takes one team that really loves Frances Martes or something.

Jeffrey Paternostro: All right, gotta run. Apologies for the brevity this time. We'll pop back in next week for more.