Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday May 18, 2017 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey is our lead prospect writer and co-host of For All You Kids, the BP Mets podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Showing up is 80% of life or something, so here I am a bit later than planned.

Sean (NY): Scouting report on Jordan Humphreys? Having a great year with dominant numbers in Low-A.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett is Ten Packing him for Monday I believe, but here is my Q+D: Low 90s fastball, sneaky fast with some riding life, feel for a potentially average curve and change, delivery/stamina/command all a bit better than last year, but he's close to physically maxed. Backend starter type who probably ends up a useful pen arm in the end.

Paul (Jersey): Rosario now up to .349/.396/.493 in 91 Gs (361 AB) since his promotion to AA last year. Pretty stellar. Where does he fall in line with the current crop of major league shortstops?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have heard comps all over the place on Rosario, from all-star level guys (Correa, Bogaerts) to Alcides Escobar, who has been a solid regular at times, but is...not those first two. He's certainly on the same prospect tier as guys like Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, Lindor were, but I don't think the shape of his production ends up neatly fitting into any of those boxes. I also am not entirely sure what the ultimate offensive profile looks like other than "It'll be good." Could also change a lot throughout his twenties.

greg (ny): how would you (off the top of your head) rank the interesting prospects you just saw in the lakewood-columbia series? please please say nice things about gimenez!

Jeffrey Paternostro: So of the guys I'd put higher than 4s on, it'd go 1. Sixto 2. Brito 3. Moniak 4. Gimenez 5. Lindsay. I'll be diving into Gimenez in a longer form piece at BP. He's a tricky profile to deal with at the moment for a variety of reasons.

Steve (NY): Between Taylor Ham, Egg, and Cheese, who has the most upside? Do you think there's any truth to the rumors that the group is juicing, or is it all a load of crepe? If they are, do you think they're toast, or can they still have a roll?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Cheese has the best aerodynamics. Wind was blowing out to right field all series which makes a strong headwind for egg and pork roll.

Danny (Toronto): Bo Bichette the next big SS prospect? If not him, who?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you think he is a shortstop long term, definitely. If you don't--and I'm skeptical--he's still a very good prospect.

Seth (NYC): For purely fantasy - Carter Kieboom or Bo Bichette?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, this is well within the fudge factor for me, both potential plus offensive forces, both probably not shortstops long term, it might come down to ultimate positional home, but I think I'd take Kieboom's bat at this point. Might change my mind in a week though.

a.j. (las vegas): if your brian cashman what is your next move? trade OF prospect for Yu Darvish? trade Gardner to open up OF spot for Frazier or Fowler? etc.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think they need to do anything, honestly. There isn't anything crazy unsustainable here (well, maybe Aaron Hicks, although I always believed in Aaron Hicks). Think you can shore up around the edges come July without going whole hog buy. Depending on Chapman's shoulder you may need to poke around for an Addison Reed or Nick Vincent or Ryan Madson, but those guys are always available.

Craig (DC): What kind of fantasy potential does Fernando Tatis Jr have? Elite SS future?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's also probably not a shortstop, and I'd put the present bat projection a tick behind the aforementioned Kieboom and Bichette, but more than enough stick to be fantasy relevant. Might be more ups and downs and a slower developmental process overall as well.

Jerry (World): Been seeing Estevan Florial's name pop up more and more. Is the hype real? Is he a 20/20 guy if things break right? Top 100 by mid season at current pace?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yep. We only do a top 50 at midseason and that might be a bit too aggressive, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a 2018 Top 101 guy. Charleston is gonna be a must-see for me in the second half just to confirm this.

Charles (SC): Is Jon Duplantier legit? How does he compare to, say, Mitch white in terms of helium?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yep. I liked him the best of the Diamondbacks non-Banda arms coming into the season, even if the arm issues kept him a lower on the list. Still a decent chance he's a late inning guy in the end, but he's a dude. White's the better prospect though. And I am not just saying that because Wilson is holding my bourbon supplies hostage.

CL72 (Missouri): What can you share about Monte Harrison and Khalil Lee?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Both are good athletes and sometimes those guys pop hard when they start to put it together. Harrison is also finally healthy, but this has always been in there. Lee might have some growing pains as he sees better stuff, but he has a case as the best prospect in the Royals system. Oh, Craig is an Argentina at the moment, but wants me to remind you that #healwaysbelieved in Monte Harrison.

Eddie (NY): What can we expect fromthr plate from Rosario if he gets called up? As a Mets fan, feels like we're setting ourselves up for disappointment. (Insert joke about team being a disappointment year in and year out)

Jeffrey Paternostro: I expect he would at least hold his own. Might not be a big on-base or power threat right away, but I think he will hit enough to be a decent regular right away (maybe like those good Esky seasons). That assumes Collins would actually play him six days a week at shortstop though. This field staff's track record with managing position player prospects is not great, Eddie.

JC (Indy): How long will delvin Perez be in extended spring training? Any cause for concern that they haven't assigned him yet?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eh, not really? It's not THAT unusual for a late first round prep bat (let alone one as young as Perez) to get held back in XST. They could also send him right to the MWL when XST breaks if they think he is ready, but a summer on Johnson City would not, by itself, give me particular pause.

Justin (Iowa City, Iowa): What are your thoughts on Cole Tucker and Ke'Bryan Hayes? What are their upsides?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will direct you to Javier's quite thorough eyewitness reports on that went up this morning.

Dusty (Colorado): What's the deal with Wander Javier, is he going to be t100 by preseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Can't really answer that until we get 2017 reports. Talent is there for that, but need to see it stateside first.

Ben (NYC): #1 prospect in 2018, 2019, 2020?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I forget how I answered this last year when I was asked, so I guess I will take another crack.

2018: Victor Robles
2019: Vladito
2020: Ehhhhhhh, let's say Kevin Maitan I guess.

John (Philly): Top ss prospect in 3 years will be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I got about as much shot at this as pegging the top 2020 dude, probably someone that hasn't been drafted/signed yet.

KIlz (Down Undah'): Any pop up prospects we should be keeping a close eye on?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'll plug Daniel Brito again here, as is quickly becoming a prospect team best practice. I really like Ryan Castellani, though he's been on radars since late last Summer.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Jeffrey, How would you rank A. Reyes, Y. Alvarez and W. Buehler? Does Alvarez's "clean" arm put him in the lead or does Reyes impressive performance in the majors in 2016 keep him in front. Or has Buehler's utter domination surpassed them both? Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Reyes is still #1 here, even with the TJ, present plus-plus stuff and had gotten it done in the upper minors/majors before the injury. Could easily drop right back into a major league rotation after rehab assuming he comes all the way back. The risk that he doesn't--and it's not insignificant--still isn't large enough to drop him below the Dodgers arms, both of who we like. I think Alvarez has a bit more upside and would still rank him higher accordingly.

Knish (NY): Biggest risers and fallers in terms of fantasy prospects for you to this point?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think there's much use in moving guys a ton off five weeks of baseball.

Buff (Snowy Colorado): Will Raimel Tapia find full-time work in Colorado?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The Rockies have such an OF logjam that I could see him being dealt for something at the deadline if the Rockies are still in it. Which is quite the sentence to write in the year of our lord 2017. Then again, the Rockies could hand him an everyday job tomorrow. Nothing they do surprises me.

Tim (Kentucky): What is Mitch Keller's upside? Frontline starter or more of a good #2?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I would argue that a good #2 is a frontline starter, but he's more future 2 than ace for me.

Sam (Wyoming): What is a good comp for Meadows? Yelich? Is that his upside?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've always liked the Yelich comp (heard it for a few years) and that's a pretty damn good upside.

Jeb (Iowa): If the Pirates were to trade Gerrit Cole within the next year or so. Who could be a likely destination (NYY) ? And what could the Pirates get in return for him (If NYY, Torres?) ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's always going to be the link since they drafted him of course, but they are one of the few orgs that might buy a frontline starter and have the prospects to go get one. Yeah, it'd start with Gleyber for me, and I'd want a high end second piece out of that system too. A healthy Cole is a frontline power arm with 2+ years of control left.

Kevin (Summit Middle School): What should the Pirates do going forward? Trade some pieces soon (Cutch, Cole, Harrison, Watson) ? Tear it down and totally rebuild? Or hold and see what happens over the next 2-3 years?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The Pirates ownership hasn't seemed particularly interested in supplementing the 88-win team core they had a few years ago. There's been some bad injury luck in there and guys have gotten older, but I'd be looking to add aggressively to the team. I don't think they will, and think it is more likely they throw up their hands and sell some pieces. It's kind of a shame. They were a fun team when they made their run.

Jake (State Farm): What do you make of the Nationals putting Erick Fedde strictly in the bullpen for the rest of the season? Top pitching prospects, 3 years removed from TJ, only has 44 innings into the season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn't do it. I think he'd be a better fit to drop into their fifth starter role at this point. Ross seems like the better bullpen guy for the balance of the season, especially if you can leverage him against righties more in that role. That said, he could be a weapon for them in short bursts with the fastball and power slurve.

Hen (Ny): You buying into "Michael Conforto, budding superstar?" Or do you think he settles into a 3 WAR kind of guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think he's quite THIS good, but I'd split the difference and call him a role 6/4-win type that has a couple all-star seasons in there.

Dave (Queens): Sorry about Wednesday, man. That sucks. Anyhow......I saw on twitter that you mentioned that Gimenez showed why he was worth 7 figures - what exactly is it that you saw and what do you make of the Mets skipping him effectively 3 levels?

Jeffrey Paternostro: As I said, I'll be going in depth on Gimenez, but Jarrett made the point there that you don't give a guy with that body type seven-figures at 16 unless he is really advanced, and he is really advanced.

Chansen8895 (San Jose): where do you rank Otani among the eligible prospects? And do you think any team will actually let him play the field and pitch?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He'd be 1 for me. If they won't let McKay do both, I don't think they'd risk it with Otani.

Ted (NJ): I know you used to be high on Luis Carpio and Ali Sanchez; did they impress at all in your looks this past week?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Both were disappointing to varying degrees. Will have notes on both soon at BP Mets. Sanchez especially looked like a borderline non-prospect. Carpio I am giving a bit longer leash because of his age and the recent shoulder issue, but the shoulder issue might have sapped a bit of the bat too.

Frank (Us): Worried about Dez Lindsay start?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Another guy I will have notes on, but not really, looked like the same guy I saw the last two summers. Still a volatile prospect, but just needs reps.

kcshankd (Cascadia): So, Allen Cordoba, what the $^&***? I assumed he'd get a few dozen PH AB and be terrible, then sent to A ball next year. How is he doing this?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Residual Cardinals devil magic?

Al (LV): When you see that the Mets made Dom Smith (along with Amed) untouchable? Does that change how you view a prospect as the org knows more about the player than anyone else?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think we have to be careful to separate what an org says about a player versus what they do with the player. DePo famously said Matt Bowman was their third best pitching prospect then didn't protect him for Rule 5. See any quote from the Marlins about Luis Castillo being a 20-game winner with three plus pitches after the first time they traded him, but before the second time they traded him. Actions speak louder than leaked PR. That said, the Mets FO absolutely loves Smith, but that kind of stuff doesn't usually change my reports.

And I don't know that I would deal a likely regular at an open 2018 spot either.

Allan T (Ct): Is Amed Rosario a better prospect than he was when th season started? Is it safe to say he and Moncada are the consensus top 2 in baseball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he's moved up due to graduations, but there is also something to him maintaining his skills at a higher level (even if it's the PCL). The top tier for me right now is Robles, Moncada, Rosario, Devers in some order.

Billy (Beantown): Jeffrey, Thanks for the chat. When should we expect to see Rafael Devers at Fenway?? Also, what's his expected upside?? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he could handle a major league assignment by the end of this year, but I don't think he gets rushed. Upside here is an all-star level third baseman with more all-around skills than you'd think looking at the body.

Sidd (NJ): Do the Cubs, Indians, and (ugh) potentially Yankees tell us anything valuable about building with offense being 'safer'? The Mets ability to be bad so fast feels less shocking having built around pitching, given what pitchers do.

Jeffrey Paternostro: You still need pitching, as the 2017 Cubs are finding out. But that has always been the case, no? Worked really well for the Mets in 2015 when a fairly average offense was carried by a slew of healthy young high end starters though.

someguynamedkenn (someplaceinNJ): Is Rafael Devers a third baseman long term?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The body could make that difficult, but based on what I saw a few weeks ago, I don't see why not. Long term might be to like 27 or something though.

someguynamedkenn (someplaceinNJ): How is Eric O'Flaherty still in the majors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's left-handed? I promise at some point I will stop cribbing from stuff Jarrett has said on the podcast, but if you want to subtly tank without holding guys down or running a poverty roster, there are worse strategies than giving middle innings of games to really bad relievers.

Cary (ATL ): Ronald Acuna - Top 10 prospect now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's a big move off five weeks of baseball, but if you were going to move a guy big off five weeks of baseball, he'd be a good candidate. I would guess he is top 20 on our midseason and closer to 10 than 20.

Jim (Atlanta): Rank the Braves LHP prospects: Allard, Fried, Newcomb, Gohara, Sanchez, Wentz, Muller. Thanks!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Allard, Newcomb, Gohara, Wentz, Fried, Muller, Sanchez.

This could change after Gohara's MRI, and I was tempted to hop Went over him anyway. I'll be the last guy to give up on Newcomb for context.

Tom (PA): Austin Meadows is hitting about .210 since moving up to AAA last season. Any concern?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Slight, but Triple-A is weird.

Mat (Delaware ): Are there some people who actually still consider Gleyber Torres a better prospect than Amed Rosario? Do you think that's reasonable or do you just not see it

Jeffrey Paternostro: I believe there are. I don't personally see it, but I get why it is said.

Eric (Los Angeles): Any rumblings, murmurs or reports from Extended Spring Training? Really curious about how guys like Lazarito, Victor Garcia, Johan Oviedo and the like are looking.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The King of Hustle Javier Barragan has been gathering some good XST notes. He really liked Jesus Luzardo, the Nats lefty prep pick coming off TJ, and we got an interesting report on Blue Jays righty Eliser Medrano. Also worth mentioning one of the reasons Gimenez got jumped is he was obliterating XST.

Jim (Atlanta): GoHara's MRI?!?!?!?! That's happening???

Jeffrey Paternostro: I assume when you leave pointing to your bicep that is a thing that happens, but maybe this is just my Mets fan paranoia.

Tim (Seattle): You see Funkhouser or Dunning as SPs?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I know Funkhouser's velo popped and the performance was strong, but he's a polished senior sign in the MWL and he did not show good at all for me last year. Dunning I think can definitely start, though it's more mid-rotation than top.

Jmax (STILL...hiding at work): Daniel Brito seems to be the newest helium guy. What will be said about him next March?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Top 100 dude, potential first-division player.

Rachel (Rockport): Tomas Nido- stock down?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'll see him again end of next month. Only played one game for me and didn't do much one way or the other. Skyler Kanfer saw him more recently and thought he was fine, and it's five weeks of baseball. Stocks don't move a ton barring injury or major skill/tool changes. You could argue we might have overreacted a bit to his first good offensive season last year. Also, catchers are weird.

Jack (Chicago): Do have any hope of Gausman ever becoming a solid, consistent, better than mid-rotation pitcher?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's still on the Orioles, right?

Paul (Jersey): Seriously. The Met staff isn't THIS bad right? Their team ERA will fall somewhere between 15-20 by season's end and they'll be in some sort of "race" come September right?... RIGHT?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, deGrom has had a weird season, but the underlying stuff looks fine, just weird control blips and some extra homers. I think he will settle in as standard good deGrom. Wheeler looks like Wheeler and I imagine will continue to look like this until/if he starts to gas. Tommy Milone has looked exactly like Tommy Milone? You'd hope Matz or Lugo help right the ship. I think Gsellman could use a three week DL sting, and Harvey might just be toast. The bullpen always might have gone pear-shaped too. I don't think they are this bad, but they've built quite the hole for themselves and sometimes you have a lost year.

Byyourlogic (NJ): Tim Tebow, good or bad for baseball?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So after a long weekend of Tebowmania I am mostly indifferent to the whole thing. I will say he is legit taking a few at-bats from actual dudes now like Lindsay and Cespedes (who looked bad but got six figures). And there is something that bugs me about going on Fallon while the rest of the team has an eight-hour bus ride home.

Tom (Portland): Time to give up on Gilbert Lara?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nah, way too early for that, but the reports have been bad.

Danny (Chicago): Yoan Moncada comps for Luis Robert reasonable?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a very different kind of athleticism, very different body. But insofar as they are both elite Cuban talents signed as teenagers who could move somewhat quickly through the minors, sure.

Ryan (Texas): Luis Robert a top 10 Prospect if eligible?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's very difficult for us to rank Cuban prospects without pro experience since we don't often have eyes on that showcase circuit. Without making calls and basing it on the public reports, I'd say he's probably just outside there, but the delta here for me is huge.

Dexter (Jersey): What do you make of Justin Dunn's start? Stock down? Increased chances of moving to pen ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Steve and Javier both saw him and the stuff was in line with what I saw last Summer. We don't think of A+ as an aggressive assignment for an ACC college pitch, but he has little experience as a starter. I may have literally just repeated a chat answer from two weeks ago.

Brad (DC): Where does juan soto end up in the rankings the the end of the season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Assuming the ankle injury is a minor thing and he only misses a couple weeks and keeps doing Juan Soto things. How different is that from 2016 Eloy Jimenez?

Sid (NJ): When's the pod drop?

Jeffrey Paternostro: My laptop charger died in Lakewood and Is stupidly forgot to Amazon Prime one before yesterday. Hoping to have it up tonight.

Todd (Baltimore): What exactly is the injury with Juan Soto ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Right ankle something on a slide into home a little over a week ago.

ck (Boston): I know he's doing just about everything right, but does the fact that Triston McKenize is thinner than most sticks concern you that he may struggle to throw 150+ innings year after year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a concern, but he's 19. When I was 19 I was skinny as...okay bad example. Sure, sometimes these guys never fill out, but we are nitpicking for now.

UKMet (UK): Carlos Carvahal - In or Out?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Welp, looks like out.

Robert Gsellman (Queens): What happened? Am I gonna turn this around?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think you could use a three week DL stint to heal whatever injury you have that I definitely haven't heard about.

Sid (NJ): "My laptop charger died in Lakewood" sounds like a very on-brand country song. er... ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Los Campesinos! b-side "My Laptop Charger Died in Lakewood (Minor Emotional Breakdown #4)"

Ryan (ME): Sixto Sanchez or Jason Groome (and why). Go!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I have officially gone ride or die with Sixto. Part of this is gonna be due to Groome's mysterious whatever that has put him on the DL.

dantroy (CA): Can you update us on the state of the brand?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It hasn't been a great week. Hoping we can get Ynoa off the DL soon, and maybe a Szapucki appearance in A-ball.

Jeb (Iowa): Chances Cole gets traded by Opening Day of next year? Could you see him going at the deadline this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will never bet against the Pirates dealing someone who is about to get expensive for prospects.

Jake (Kalamazoo): Can you rank for dynasty purposes? Kieboom, Welker, Mountcastle, Gatewood, Pache, and Marcus Wilson.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Kieboom, Mountcastle, Welker, Pache, Wilson, Gatewood.

Chris (NJ): Never all that heralded coming up, but it's hard to ignore what Rhys Hoskins is doing to AAA pitching... average, power, walks, not a ton of strikeouts. What do you think the future has in store for him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: These guys are always tricky because the line between Role 5 first baseman and role 4s is so thin. I like Hoskins but you have to hit a ton as a RHH first baseman to hold down the fort.

Mike (PA): You wrote there isn't a long list of pitching prospects you'd take over Sixto. So, naturally, I have to wonder which ones you would?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Off the top of my head: Reyes, Honeywell, Alvarez, Keller, Martes, Hader, Kopech, then I have to start really thinking about it.

Ron (Fort Worth): Yanio Perez legit or just old for the level?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Reports I've heard are a little from Column A and a little from Column B.

Fred (Michigan): With Gsellman graduating, Rosario hopefully (pretty please!) graduating and Szapucki having the injury issues who do you think will be the Mets top prospect entering next yr (assuming not Rosario)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Would guess Smith or Gimenez.

Rizzo (Delaware ): Is Andres Gimenez is a similar kind of/caliber prospect to how Gleyber was at this age (mostly the polish) seems like they are similar athletes with Gleyber more hit and Gimenez more D

Jeffrey Paternostro: Past them both being polished middle infielders with advanced hit tools for their age they don't have all that much else in common I'd say.

RizzMiggz (Las Vegas, NV): Who are some names that might make the midseason top 50 who weren't in the top 100? Let's exclude fringe top 100 guys like Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette. More curious about out-of-nowhere guys, if any.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's unusual to get big jumpers like that I think. I tend to be pretty conservative even after two months of baseball, although it does give us actual time to see more guys and gather more info. You do get the occasional now-healthy pitcher or Ronald Acuna. I would guess Brito and Mitch White get discussed.

Sean (NY): hear anything on a Szapucki return?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't. I figured he would have popped up by now based on late Spring reports. Something for me to run down this weekend I guess.

Rebecca (West Covina): Why do the Mets hate the DL?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's literally a 10-day DL

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, time to start waiting for the inevitable Carvahal sacking and make plans for Memorial Day weekend now that I am free. We will do this again soon.