Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jarrett Seidler

Chat: Jarrett Seidler

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:00 PM ET chat session with Jarrett Seidler.

Jarrett Seidler is a member of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team, predominantly covering the Eastern and Sally Leagues.

Jarrett Seidler: Howdy all. Let's get started with the baseball talk...

Lt. Kaffee (Court Room): If you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base?

Jarrett Seidler: Santiago was a substandard Marine, he was being transferred.

Chris (MD): Who pitches more 2018 MLB innings? Alex Reyes or Yadier Alvarez?

Jarrett Seidler: Hmmm, good question. Reyes should be back pretty darned close to the start of the season, and even if Alvarez is a 2018 MLB option, one would have to think that a.) the Dodgers are going to limit his innings something fierce and b.) he won't be up until after service time considerations.

So I'll take Reyes.

Chris (Baltimore): Any strong opinion on Shed Long? He is talked up among people of your ilk.

Jarrett Seidler: I haven't seen him live and I usually don't have terribly strong opinions on prospects I haven't seen. I like dudes that can hit and run, and our internal reports on him were fine, but "low-minors second base prospect" is always a tough profile.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Jarrett. Does Mauricio Dubon have the tools to be a first-division starter at 2B, maybe even an occasional all-star? Or is that too high for his ceiling?

Jarrett Seidler: Heck, I haven't given up on him defensively at shortstop yet, not even close. I hate the word "ceiling" but yeah, he could be a good starting middle infielder if things work out.

Alex (NY): Weird question for you. If Noah Syndergaard was a FA this offseason, what kind of contract would he have gotten? Obviously he is just 23 with unparalleled stuff, but has an elbow which many believe is a ticking time bomb. How would teams weigh these against each other and what kind of contract would he have gotten?

Jarrett Seidler: I'm like 95 percent sure we did this as a podcast topic within the last six months. It's difficult to impossible to say, because nobody has hit free agency quite that young and quite that good. I think he'd easily beat the David Price number, but market resets often aren't quite as aggressive as you'd think. Maybe 10 years and $300 million with some opt-outs?

I don't know that he's much greater of a risk than any other hard-throwing pitcher, really. They're all gonna go eventually.

Nick (Asheville ): If Gavin Cecchini has a 6 hit tool and can play an average/average+ 2B, is it possible the industry is underrating him a bit? Possible attributed to prospect fatigue along with him having to move off short?

Jarrett Seidler: Those are two awfully, awfully big ifs, aren't they?

Aaron (NY): In light of the top 50 trade value articles being published by various outlets, which Mets would make your top 50 overall trade value list?

Jarrett Seidler: I think it's just two, Syndergaard and deGrom, and I think the only other great contender is Rosario. Cespedes makes too much, Harvey and Matz are too big of injury risks, no other prospect is consensus top ten level. Wouldn't the fourth under this paradigm be, like, Conforto?

nschaef (NYC): The Mets seem to have tons of surplus depth, particularly on the dirt. Does any of it get moved or do they just enjoy the benefits of having like 3-5 options at every infield position?

Jarrett Seidler: Alderson has made prospect trades to alleviate pressure on the back side of the 40-man pretty often, but they never have packaged a bunch of good prospects together to go get X. It's probably important to remember that the Cecchinis and Nimmos of the world are still former first-rounders of this regime that haven't busted, and that's not always the easiest for a front office to come off of.

Jose Altuve (Cooperstown, but later): "Low minors second base prospect is always a tough profile." Ahhh, so THAT'S why every scout crapped all over me, and Dustin, and Cano, and Mookie B., and on and on and on. Maybe second base shouldn't be looked at as a "tough profile" any more than any other position.

Jarrett Seidler: So Pedroia was a shortstop prospect until Double-A, Cano was mostly a shortstop until High-A (and looked like he would end up at third if we're counting), and Betts played all over the place. People will bring up Jose Altuve until the cows come home, but isn't the guy who turned out to have an 8 hit more the exception than the rule?

Here's an exercise: group your favorite X number of MLB second basemen and see how many were second basemen in the low-minors.

I'll start. Aside from the above, Daniel Murphy wasn't, Ian Kinsler wasn't, Ben Zobrist wasn't, Javier Baez wasn't, Brandon Phillips wasn't, Neil Walker wasn't, Dee Gordon wasn't, Logan Forsythe wasn't, Brian Dozier mostly wasn't, I think Jason Kipnis and Rougned Odor moved there in High-A, hell even Joe Panik moved there in Double-A.

Richard (Queens): Would it surprise you if any of these names make the top 100 next yr: Becerra, Nido, Carpio, Lindsay, Gimenez, Alonso, Molina, Guerrero?

Jarrett Seidler: In order: yes, some but less than you'd think, yes although I should remember who writes the list when saying this, no/he was in consideration this year, not at all/I'd expect him to, yes, a bit but it wouldn't be shocking if he's healthy, yes.

Eric (Canada): Will Matt Thaiss hit for power eventually?

Jarrett Seidler: James Fisher saw him after the draft and thought he'd hit for average power. I wouldn't make too much hay out of a just-okay ISO in A-ball coming off the college season.

Wish I knew why he wasn't catching, though.

HelpMe (Please): Who will have the better fantasy career between Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Mazara?

Jarrett Seidler: I'm going to take most of these fantasy-type questions to just mean "better" because I'm not much of a fantasy expert. I really, really like Benintendi, but Mazara's sneakily a year younger and has already done this for a full year at the MLB level. Ask me again tomorrow and I might change my mind, though.

Lougle (Queens): I'm in a dynasty league with 14 teams and 15 minors spots. Would you take Kopech over bats like Ray, Lewis, Moniak and Rutherford? I'm generally adverse to taking pitching with a high pick in my minors draft but might make an exception for someone with "ace upside". What do you think?

Jarrett Seidler: If Kopech became a closer instead, would that hurt you a lot in said dynasty league? I'm still not convinced about his long-term rotation viability, but he has a hell of a fallback compared to most pitching prospects.

Dez (Brooklyn): Who's the better overall prospect between Szapucki and Lindsay? Who has the higher ceiling?

Jarrett Seidler: Szapucki is the better prospect currently. I think Lindsay just might have a little better ceiling, but there's more of an injury concern there, which is awfully weird to say about a CF over a LHP coming off back problems.

TrickDaddy14 (Bronx): How good is Luis Robert? An MLB comp would be great and also where he'd rank in the top 100... thank you

Jarrett Seidler: I am not really qualified enough to answer this question. I mean, we did put Kevin Maitan on, so he'd probably make it.

A FYI - gonna be a little slower responding as we get closer to and into the game tonight -- working on a Seth Lugo focused "real time" piece for BP Mets with regards to the championship game, but I'll keep taking questions here in between as long as they keep coming.

Frank Y (Ridge wood ): Is it crazy to think that next year there's a good chance that people will be talking about the Mets as having a top 5 farm? Let's assume only Gsellman graduates. Amed and Dom are Amed and Dom. Szapucki, Dunn, Lindsay and Gimenez seem to have pretty major helium potential. (Nido and becerra too)

Jarrett Seidler: Not impossible, but a lot of things would have to go right.

grimoren189 (Houston): Thoughts on Mateo's season last year and what he needs to this year to regain some of his prospect shine?

Jarrett Seidler: I still haven't been able to firmly find out why he was actually suspended. I think he's getting a bit lost in the shuffle organizationally because he's been surpassed in so many ways by Torres. It's still a really good profile and if he goes for a hot six weeks repeating the FSL, it'll be like Rosario last year where everyone will forget everything else.

Jordan (Florida): Who are some names to watch in the FSL this season?

Jarrett Seidler: Without looking closely: the aforementioned Mateo and Kaprielian seem destined to start there for the Yankees. Like eight guys on Atlanta's affiliate. Mitch Keller. Franklyn Kilome.

Jquinton82 (NY): Better dynasty league option to draft: Yadier Alvarez or Jason Groome?

Jarrett Seidler: We ranked Alvarez slightly higher on the real 101 but Groome slightly higher on the dynasty 101. I guess I'll go with Bret and Ben in that I think Groome has a higher probability to stick in the rotation and I think that's something that really matters for y'all.

Mark (Uconn): If they were coming out of the draft this year as HS seniors, where would Andres Gimenez and Vlad Jr be drafted?

Jarrett Seidler: We can probably figure this out as a thought exercise, right? Coming into this season both were roughly in the 100-125 range, behind around a dozen to fifteen draftees. Throw in some uncertainty and another year of development and I'd think both would be around the top ten, perhaps a little higher.

This is a bit apples to oranges because of the differences between developmental systems, of course.

Gary (NY): Ian Kinsler sure has a whole lotta grission, huh? ;)

Jarrett Seidler: For those who missed it, Ian Kinsler went after the Puerto Rico and Dominican teams under the nebulous "play the game the right way" sort of way in an interview today.

This comes up every four years. This is how these teams play in, say, the Caribbean Series. I like it, and we could all do remembering baseball is more of a passion play and less of a Serious Operation sometimes.

Quentin (NY N): Now that Harvey has hit 96, is it time for some optimism?

Jarrett Seidler: I mean, he'd *hit* 95 a few times before, he's just not working there. And it's not just velocity.

Howard (NY): I get your concerns about Harvey but doesnt it seem kinda Panic Cityish at this point? Sure he obviously hasnt looked good but anecdotally velo might come back later and we only have 1 live TV look to base his mechanics on. If he looked this way throughout a decent chunk of the season I get it but we're not even into the season yet. Also, wouldnt the view be way different if the Mets just managed PR and expectations better in the offseason and didnt make it seem like Harvey would be 100% ready come the start of the season?

Jarrett Seidler: He had a really, really bad injury, an injury that some players don't come back at all from and many come back diminished from. These questions will remain until he no longer looks diminished.

Given that Warthen put a ten month complete recovery timetable on this, why they're targeting Opening Day instead of, you know, the actual recovery date baffles me. Gsellman and Lugo have both looked great this spring, letting Bartolo go was a choice, and Wheeler is still around too.

misterbob (pa): How do you view Joe Ross and his outlook for this year with the Nat's? Also wondering whether or not you think Mike Folty has a chance to be one of those break out guys this year? Thx.

Jarrett Seidler: I like Joe Ross a lot. Hey, Folty is another thoracic outlet guy, although a year off it, right?

Drake (FreeSmoke): Have you of Jeff changed your stance on Dom Smith at all? I know the numbers weren't there this spring, but he really passes the eye test

Jarrett Seidler: I can't speak for Jeffrey, but nothing this spring has changed my opinion on Smith. Same strengths, same weaknesses, time will tell.

Dan (ATL ): Ronald Acuna - next big prospect?

Jarrett Seidler: Ronald Acuna is one of the guys that we have some crazy, crazy high internal reports on. His position on the 101 was *cautious* compared to what we were hearing about him. So yeah, I can buy that.

Ozzie (Chicago): I'm in Chicago where we have very little info on Harvey. From what you're saying, he's still got a ways to go. Would it be worth it to stash him away for a year, or give a guy like Luis Severino or Peraza a chance? I'm in a position where I don't need anything from him, but if he could be a top 40 starter, it would give me options.

Jarrett Seidler: I'd still take him over guys like Severino and Peraza. He could still be a top 40 starter even if he isn't all the way back.

nschaef (Nyc): If the Mets get hit particularly hard in the rotation in the first half do they trade for Quintana?

Jarrett Seidler: I've been arguing half-seriously for the Mets to make a trade for another top-of-the-rotation type for awhile. Value is value, right? I guess if you can keep pushing out guys like Gsellman and Lugo at that level of production, you don't need to. But man, Quintana is good.

The real problem is that they're not getting Quintana without trading Amed Rosario and they're not trading Amed Rosario.

David (Atlantis): Hey Jarrett. Which prospects are you higher on than your colleagues & why? Vice versa which ones are you lower on & why?

Jarrett Seidler: I'm probably the internal high guy on Justus Sheffield, really because I saw him later in the season than everyone else. Either he was emptying the tank with the end near or he'd progressed a fair amount, or both.

I suspect I'm the low guy on Brad Zimmer. I just don't know if there's an adjustment to MLB-quality pitching coming, and he's running out of time.

Tito (Cleveland): Are there any prospects at AA that you feel could contribute at the MLlevel in 2018? Thanks

Jarrett Seidler: Gleyber Torres is going to start at Double-A, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a MLB contributor in *2017* let alone 2018.

MetsFanKC (Um, Kansas City): If Matt den Dekker makes the Marlins roster this season, how many games does he beat the Mets via driving in or scoring the winning run, game saving catch, or some other flukey ex-Met curse play?

Jarrett Seidler: I'll set the over/under at 2.5

Jerry (Earth): Thanks for the chat Jarrett. Was wondering if there was a certain type of player or tool that you just like. Example, some scouts of BP are drawn to Dominican SS, others really like really good change up. What's your poison.

Jarrett Seidler: Lefties with a beautiful two-plane curve. So suffice to saw I am also the staff's high man on Jason Groome.

Joe (LA): Whisper sweet nothings to me about my new prospect crush Mitch White

Jarrett Seidler: Wilson really likes him and there are not many people I would trust on West Coast guys over Wilson. It's a weird background and that might explain the "why."

Fred (Jersey City): What would you project Amed Rosario's statline to look like at his 75th and 90th percentile outcomes? Can he be viewed in the same league as Correa, Lindor, Seager etc?

Jarrett Seidler: Average seasons looking something like .290/.350/.475 and, I don't know, .310/.370/.500? Basically his 75th percentile outcome is a role 7 shortstop and his 90th percentile outcome is a role 8 shortstop.

I would note that all three of those guys were relatively if slightly better prospects than Rosario, and all three are tracking at 75th percentile or above outcomes themselves. Rosario obviously lacks Seager and Correa's power and Lindor's glove as standout tools, too.

Nick (Albany): I guess this is more rhetorical at this point, but where the hell did *this* Lugo slider come from?

Jarrett Seidler: When we say Dan Warthen's responsible for an entire staff of 60 sliders, we're not joking.

Ceej (Pittsburgh): Do you think that we see more of Moncada or Bellinger in the majors this year? 300+ ABs?

Jarrett Seidler: Moncada, if only because the White Sox are positioned to let Moncada make his own timetable whereas the Dodgers have plenty of corner depth.

Leonard (None of Your Business): In the upcoming season for you when you are going to games who are you most excited to see in the Eastern & Sally Leagues?

Jarrett Seidler: Just my *home* teams project to have Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield, Mickey Moniak, probably Sixto Sanchez and/or Adonis Medina, maybe Jhailyn Ortiz or Kevin Gowdy, Jorge Mateo and James Kapielian within a month or two, and some other interesting arms.

Tom Hubert (Long Island): Hey Jarrett, hope all is well. I have a few questions for you. Who do you think potentially gets more votes this year for the NL Cy Young, deGrom or Syndergaard? What kind of numbers do you think Cespedes would need to put up to realistically to reach his goal of MVP? Whats your confidence level on Gsellman making a run at Rookie of the Year this year?

Jarrett Seidler: Syndergaard's the chalk for Cy votes, but you're right to bring up deGrom here. Everyone forgets that he was right amongst the contenders until he got hurt last year, and he was really never at 100 percent.

Cespedes probably needs like 30/100 plus the narrative. The narrative would've been easier to achieve last year.

I'd be a bit worried that Gsellman doesn't throw enough innings to get to ROTY. He could see a stint in the pen, he could skip a few starters for maintenance, etc., whereas I'm pretty sure Dansby Swanson is going to see 650 PAs unless something bad happens.

Igor (At a Bar): What prospects are you looking to buy a bunch of pre-season stocks this year so this time next year you their stock will be drastically higher so you can say to everyone "Look I got in on the ground floor on ___"?

Jarrett Seidler: So the "problem" - and it's not really a problem at all - when you contribute to lists is that I've pretty much revealed all of my "helium" guys, and our lists reflect them. So like I can give you, say, Thomas Szapucki, Dustin May, and Alec Hansen, but BP's writings and lists already have that purchase price built in.

J.P. (Rural Internet): Top five Wrestlemania matches? P.S. Carpio's pick today was pretty nice.

Jarrett Seidler: Saved the wrestling one for last. In chronological order:

Randy Savage vs. Ricky Steamboat, WrestleMania III
Randy Savage vs. Ultimate Warrior, WrestleMania VII
Bret Hart vs. Steve Austin, WrestleMania 13
Undertaker vs. Shawn Michaels, WrestleMania 25
Undertaker vs. Shawn Michaels, WrestleMania 26

I would put Austin/Rock from 17 up there, but man, that heel turn.

Jarrett Seidler: Thanks for all the questions, everyone. Time to go polish up tomorrow's pieces...