Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Scooter Hotz

Chat: Scooter Hotz

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday March 30, 2017 8:00 PM ET chat session with Scooter Hotz.

Scooter Hotz is a staff writer on our fantasy team.

Scooter Hotz: Hey, BPers. Let's get this chat started. I just picked Mookie Betts 3rd overall in the BP staff fantasy league.

Bobby Merls (ND): How much higher or lower are you on Orlando Arcia now as opposed to when he was called up? Or do you think of him same.

Scooter Hotz: Quite a bit lower. I'm worried.

An aside: you all understand that while I know prospects for fantasy purposes, I'm not a dynasty guy and I'm not a prospect/scout guy, right? The vast, vast majority of questions in the queue are prospect ones. I mean, geez.

Elmer (CA): I think the change from NY to PIT for Nova is truly a career-changer. I can see Nova and Searage really going on a tear this year. Do you believe he's been, for a lack of a better term, resurrected?

Scooter Hotz: Resurrected is a strong word, and implies that he was on his way to becoming this at one point before derailing at some point. I do think there's a good chance that he's a significantly better pitcher for the duration of his career thanks to his arrival in Pittsburgh, along the same lines as JA Happ.

Bill (Detroit): Are you at all interested in the Delino DeShields Jr talk about possibly getting the starting LF job and leading off for a strong TEX lineup? His rookie year was pretty phenomenal considering his runs/game. I'm into it. What say you?

Scooter Hotz: I didn't like DeShields going into last year since his 2015 looked so fluky to me and that was a good call. I like him even less this year. I just don't think he's a good bet to hit enough to justify a spot in an everyday lineup, especially on a contending team.

nschaef (NYC): Are there any players going in the first ~4-5 rounds of most drafts that you are really hesitant about for perhaps nitpicky reasons? e.g. "I am concerned about how Kluber will hold up given his heavy workload" etc.?

Scooter Hotz: Carlos Gonzalez due to the combination of injury risk and the possibility that he gets traded out of Colorado. And while I still like George Springer, I think that last season might be an indication that he's not stealing bases any more, turning him into a four-category guy instead of a five-category one.

Kevin (Washington, DC): Is Juan Soto the next big hitter? Better than Eloy Jimenez?

Scooter Hotz: Juan Soto is not better than Eloy Jimenez. He is not the next big hitter. If everything breaks his way, he could be the next big hitter 3 years from now, but that's highly unlikely.

Patrick (Tennessee ): How good can James Kaprielian be... Are we looking at Ace upside? Please rank these pitchers 5 years from now: Kapielian, A. Espinoza, Glasnow. Thank you.

Scooter Hotz: Kaprielian could be an ace, along the same lines as maybe 50 other guys in the minors with similar stuff, similar injury concerns and similar being-a-pitcher-ness.

1. Espinoza, 2. Glasnow, 3. Kaprielian

Mike (Dover AFB): Would you rather have Dansby Swanson now, or Brendan Rodgers in your minors with Jean Segura as your interim SS in a keep forever dynasty format?

Scooter Hotz: I'd prefer Segura and Rodgers to Swanson, mostly because it seems like I'm higher on Segura than most. I think Segura is a decent bet to out-perform Swanson this year. If that happens, is it fair to call him your interim SS? He earned $30+ in NL-only leagues last year.

JoshuaGB (Chicago, IL): Authors of articles giving investment advice always include disclosers of stock ownership (e.g., "buy Paypal stock," disclosure: I own Paypal stock). It would be AMAZING if you could add disclosures to BP and chats. That way, whenever someone writes about how good Lewis Brinson will be, we can know if its analysis or hope. Thoughts?

Scooter Hotz: Last year, after I had completed my last auction, I wrote an article about which players I owned on the most teams. I'll probably do something like that again this year after my last two auctions.

Link to last year's article:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28888

Vic (MD): So I made my first 2 picks in a 15 team straight draft ( 5 x 5 with 2 catchers) Posey (#15) and Lucroy (#30)....kind of regret Lucroy at #15 since both Yoenis and Verlander were still available, but after I lost out on my 2nd round target, I decided on this strategy. About 35% of the top 100 were already kept so Lucroy would have been gone by pick #45. What do you think?

Scooter Hotz: I don't love it. The value you lost out on is probably greater than the competitive disadvantage that you created for everyone else by taking two top catchers.

Mike (DC): Is Juan Soto about to jump up the prospect rankings?

Scooter Hotz: He could be. We'll have a much better idea once he makes his debut in full-season leagues.

Tom (Atlanta): How soon until Ronald Acuna is a top 10 prospect?

Scooter Hotz: Could be as early as next year, but he'll have to have a great year this year to do it, which isn't a lock, and he'll have to turn his potential power into game power. That could happen this year, that might take a few years, and it might never happen. Prospects, man.

Ben (NYC): Next big prospect nobody is talking about?

Scooter Hotz: Well, it's certainly not Juan Soto or Luis Robert, since those two are the subject of the majority of questions in the queue right now.

JoshuaGB (Chicago, IL): Is there any reason, at all, to think that Byung Ho Park might be an impact player this year? Or, is he the poster child for "spring training stats don't matter"?

Scooter Hotz: Highly unlikely he's an impact player this year. Mostly likely outcome is that he's this year's Jake Fox.

JP (S. Elgin, IL): Who will be the better dynasty player, Acuna, Maitan or Jimenez?

Scooter Hotz: That kind of guessing game just seems silly to me. The final outcome 20 years from now depends more on stochastic elements than anything else. Anyone who ranks them in a way that looks correct 20 years from now got lucky. They're not a prospect whisperer.

Fine, Jimenez - Acuna - Maitan

Betty White Gang Bang (S. Elgin, IL): How would you rank the following Dynasty prospects? Mejia Moncada Jimenez Maitan B. Rogers Devers Mazara

Scooter Hotz: Moncada Devers Jimenez Mejia Rodgers Maitan Mazara

Danny (Orlando): Luis Robert a top prospect in eligible?

Scooter Hotz: No. The error bars on what he could be are too wide. No way he should be ranked alongside known properties.

Nick (Seattle): Thoughts on Kyle Lewis and what type of player will he be in the majors?

Scooter Hotz: Seems to have good power. Knee injury could slow down his foot speed. Best case scenario probably looks a little like Seattle's own Nelson Cruz.

Oddibe29 (Tempe): A lot of hype on Mitchell White lately. Any thoughts?

Scooter Hotz: Lots of scouts love him and his velocity has spiked, but he's also only thrown 22 innings as a professional, so we really don't have much of an idea of what he'll become.

KT (WA): Keeper league, is Story a perennial top 5 NL only shortstop for the next 5 years? (scoresheet) Seager, Diaz, Swanson, . . . ? Villar?

Scooter Hotz: Villar will lose SS eligibility this year unless Arcia craters or gets hurt. I don't think Story is a top-5 NL-only SS over the next 5 years in roto. Amed Rosario probably surpasses him, plus the guys you mentioned and at least one player we didn't see coming. I'm not a scoresheet guy, though, so maybe it's different in scoresheet.

With ROdgers coming, Story might not even be a starting shortstop in 5 years.

StanS (Baltimore): Jacob May won the starting CF job for the CWS. He had a very nice sprint training. What are your thoughts/projections for him this year. Thanks

Scooter Hotz: I don't see a ton of upside, but playing time is playing time. He could put up some counting stats as long as he's playing nearly every day. His on-base skills could use some improvement, though.

Oliver (Boston): Will Moreland hit enough to keep Sam Travis waiting in the wings? Travis might not provide quite as much defensive value, but it doesn't seem far-fetched to expect him tp demonstrate he'll outgrow Pawtucket before long.

Scooter Hotz: Yes, I think Moreland will be able to hold off Sam Travis. I like Moreland more than most as a boring but reliable player. And maybe temper your expectations for Travis since he wasn't even ranked on several industry prospect lists and was ranked around # 100 on the ones where he was ranked.

Sean99 (Chicago): Luke Weaver settle in as a #3 eventually?

Scooter Hotz: That's the best case scenario. A lot has to go right for him to get there.

Oliver (Boston): You think Charlie Morton will sustain the increased velocity? Can a couple ticks more velo upgrade a backend starter to a mid-rotation arm?

Scooter Hotz: A couple of ticks can do that, but I'd like to see the uptick last a little longer before I start paying for it in roto.

Scooter Hotz: OK, that's all the chat for tonight. As Stephin Merritt and the Magnetic Fields said: Be true to your bar/ And don't let it down/ or else it may not always be around/ Be true to your friends/ And let your friends know/ Without your bar you'd have no place to go.