Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mark Barry

Chat: Mark Barry

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday January 31, 2017 7:00 PM ET chat session with Mark Barry.

Mark Barry is a member of our fantasy team.

Mark Barry: Hello everyone. Let's do a good chat.

Sir nerdlington (Colorado): Francis Martes. The outing I saw him in the AFL, he looked terrible. Flat fastball that was getting rocked into loud outs and wallbangers. Yet, the Astros refuse to discuss him in a trade and the AGM doesn't do him the favor of tempering expectations and basically says this guy is fastball Jesus. What say you this year and career?

Mark Barry: I'd probably weigh in at whatever notch is right below fastball Jesus. I like Martes a lot and could see his 2016 going in a similar way to how the Cardinals used Alex Reyes in 2016. Looking forward, I think he's at worst a pretty dominant closer-type and at best could be a top 35-40 starter.

Ron (Texarkana): For dynasty purposes, who would you rather have as a prospect, Jason Groome or Anderson Espinoza? What the greatest reason that sticks out to you?

Mark Barry: Off the top of my head I was going to say Espinoza, mostly for proximity, but then I looked and saw Groome got a little taste of Low-A last season, so they're not that far apart. I think they both could be special, but I'll take Groome and bet on the frame.

charbar16 (Deland, Florida): What would you put Ronald Acuna's current ceiling at? And does he have the ability to possibly end up at AA to end the season?

Mark Barry: His current ceiling? The moon and the stars and everything they encompass. His BP similarity index? Mike Trout...Carlos Correa...Jurickson Profar...Nomar Mazara...and I'm light-headed. That said, he's still super young and lots of things have to go right for him to get there. I don't think the Braves have a ton of reason to move him quickly, so I think if he does get to Double-A this year it's likely for a cup of coffee toward the end of the season.

Paul (DC): Question on the likelihood of cheating in Table Top Leagues. In my 20 person league, most games are played by the home manager against the visiting team's designed computer manager. Over the last 8 Seasons one of the manager's has had an over .700% winning percentage at home 7 times; and in only one of those years did he have an above .500% winning percentage on the road. By contrast, the rest of the league had 9 total occasions over those 8 years with a a manager having a .700+% home winning percentage. And in those 9 instances, only once did the manager fail to have an above .500% road winning percentage. Am I right to be more than just suspicious that this one manager is cheating?

Mark Barry: I'm sorry, I really don't know much about this sort of stuff. Anyone?

Dan (DC): Thoughts on Lourdes Gourriel's Potential?

Mark Barry: I don't have any personal experience to go by, but he sounds like a guy that could produce a solid batting average and be that super-utility guy that everyone wants, ahem, a Zobrist-type if you will.

RobertB (Fort Wayne): Which position offers the toughest challenge when forecasting potential major league success?

Mark Barry: It's catcher. Because who knows. They have way too much responsibility before even beginning to think about offense. Your guess is as good as mine as to how their development shakes out. Appreciate your catchers.

Dusty (Colorado): Is Kevin Maitan really worth the hype?

Mark Barry: Well, he's still only 16 years old, so at this point he does seem a bit overhyped compared to how far away he is. That said, dude could be a monster, so he's probably worth the wait.

ssimon (Pelham, N.Y.): Hi Mark, Forgive me if you've received 38476 versions of these questions, but... When is PECOTA Day? And when will Player Forecast Manager be updated for 2017? Thanks and keep up the good work.

Mark Barry: It sounds like it should after the Super Bowl, so likely around next week sometime? A national holiday approaches!

Ron (Texarkana): What role does Raisel Iglesias play in 2017? Does he become a SP again?

Mark Barry: Feels like he's headed for the pen in a super reliever type role. It's a shame, because he's awesome, but I don't know if he can hold up as a starter any more.

Dave (Texas): It seems everyone in the fantasy and real baseball world is giving up on Jurickson Profar. Isn't this the perfect time to buy low in keepers leagues as the immense talent is still there and he should be 100% healthy this year. All he needs is at bats and a talent like his will get them sooner or later.

Mark Barry: I totally agree with you on Profar. I don't know if he'll ever live up to the "Number 1 overall prospect" billing, but I do think he'll be a pretty solid MLB player if he can find enough playing time.

mattyjames1 (Canada): I miss Jose Fernandez.

Mark Barry: Same.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Hearing lots of rumours about Moncada moving to the OF. Where do you think he fits on the White Sox? Do you think he starts the year at AAA?

Mark Barry: I think they will shift him back to 2B and I think he will be very, very good. A nice, long stint in Triple-A is probably still necessary, though.

Rodney R. (Los Banos): Thoughts on Andrew Susac in Milwaukee? Will he win the starting role and be a top 10 fantasy catcher? He has good pedigree and was just stuck behind the best catcher in the league...

Mark Barry: We've reached the Susac portion of the chat...

I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be the starter in Milwaukee. I'm not too scared of Jett Bandy the baseball player. Now Jett Bandy the 80s movie villain, that's another story. Top 10 could be a bit optimistic, though.

Kingpin (Iowa): Standard 8-team 5x5 NL-only keeper league (keep up to 8 with inflation - +$2, +$4, +$8, +$16, etc.) with 2 catchers. I have Realmuto as one of my keepers. Am I OK trying to get Andrew Susac or Austin Barnes for $1 as my second keeper?

Mark Barry: I'd prefer Susac to Barnes there. I think he'll get much more PT and will probably be decent-ish. That seems like a good use of $1, especially in a 2 catcher NL only. Godspeed.

gelezinas (Rockville MD): Mark: Tyler O'Neill failed to make Keith Law's top 100. I understand that defense is one reason why. But for fantasy purposes, how would you rank him? And do you think he stays in Seattle, given the organization's emphasis on OF defense recently?

Mark Barry: I think I read that Keith left him off due in part to a lack of projection, which makes sense because that dude is yoked already. He strikes out a little too much for me personally to go all-in. As far as the team goes, though, I think if he hits, they'll find a spot for him and live with the defense.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Currently have a bunch of catchers on my 48 man roster: Swihart, Nottingham, Hedges, Mejia, and T. Murphy. Which one(s) should I be shopping around?

Mark Barry: Shop them all. I probably still like Swihart the best of that group, but I wouldn't hesitate to trade any of them if I got a good enough offer.

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): Do you believe in Dan Straily?

Mark Barry: I think a lot of Straily's 2016 was smoke and mirrors. The 119 cFIP, 4.61 DRA, and under eight K/9 don't instill a lot of confidence. That said, he's going to a better park, so maybe he's a good #4-ish type?

Greg (North): How would you rank recent draftees with guys close to the majors? Gsellman/Cotton/Healy close and Rutherford/Moniak/Groome farther away. Thanks.

Mark Barry: Healy, Cotton, Gsellman

I think you have them in the right order for the second cluster. As I mentioned before, I like Groome a lot, but you know, pitchers.

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier, SS Twins?

Mark Barry: Admittedly I don't know too much about Javier, and as a 17-year-old there's not an awful lot to go on. I guess it seems like the Twins really believe in him, as he got a decent chunk of change last July 2.

Craig (Ventura, CA): Do you think Andrew Triggs will get the 5th spot in Oakland's rotation and if so how much upside do you see him having ?

Mark Barry: I'm interested to see how this plays out too. Roster Resource has him penciled in at #4 right now. He hasn't really been a starter at any point in his entire career, but was kinda/sorta decent last year in spurts. I don't know if there's huge upside, but maybe high 3/low 4 ERA with just under 9 k's per nine?

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): I have a couple of picks (3, 7) in the first round of our rookie draft which also includes international signings. I've had a difficult time finding lists for the rookie draft around the Internet and our draft is a little over a month away. Can you list your top 10?

Mark Barry: Bret Sayre did an awesome job with a list like this, to help with that very question. Check it out!

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30918

Jason (Rockaway, NJ): Is J. Cotton ready to take the ball every 5th day for Oakland? What is a realistic expectation for him?

Mark Barry: I like him a lot. He threw almost 170 innings last year, so I don't think it's unrealistic to think he could pull that off again.

Charlie (ATL): Dansby Swanson prime more Xander Boagarts 2016 or Francisco Lindor 2016?

Mark Barry: I'm not sure if he'll run enough for the Lindor comp, and I'm not sure if he'll hit for enough power for the Bogaerts comp. That said, I think he'll still be really good falling in the middle of those two.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Mark, How much has Bundy's ceiling been lowered, and what do you see as his eventual outcome?

Mark Barry: I think his ceiling has been lowered only with regard to his lofty top-5 prospect status. Based on his 2016, I think his future is still pretty bright if he can stay healthy (obviously) and he can be a top 50-60ish guy.

OB1 (Tampa): Thanks for evening hours I work days so its nice to see you on at night quick question how world you rank these four pitcher if you were in a dynasty league. which two would you keep. Kevin Gausman, Blake Snell, Kenta Maeda, Daniel Norris,

Mark Barry: In that order, actually. Although I have Gausman, Snell, and Maeda all clustered together in the mid to late 40s. I'd go Gausman and Snell, with their youth as the tie-breaker.

Ernie (St Louis): Haven't heard much about Jason Vargas this offseason. Thoughts on him coming back from TJ and the season he can have?

Mark Barry: I haven't heard much about Vargas this offseason either. I guess he was OK in 3 starts after coming back, but he was pretty meh before surgery, so I wouldn't expect too much more out of him this season.

Jimmy (GA): It seems many in fantasy circles may be undervaluing Dansby Swanson and his potential production. Granted, he is a rookie but if he hits anywhere near .300 with 15 home runs and steal at the top of a lineup he is fantasy gold right? And that seems to be his floor almost.

Mark Barry: I agree, it does feel like he's flying a little under the radar for re-draft leagues. I'll probably take the under on those numbers though, especially in his rookie year.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Is Jacob Nottigham good enough to stick at catcher and be fantasy relevant in a 16 team dynasty? If he can't stick at catcher, is the bat good enough to hold onto him in this same dynasty as a first baseman?

Mark Barry: He's still interesting, for sure, but he struck out an awful lot last year and didn't really hit enough to make up for it. He was really young for his level, but he needs to be better next season to continue to be interesting.

bobw1966 (Ft. Lauderdale): How soon will Angels management realize they need to trade Trout? 2018?

Mark Barry: That's a great question. They probably realize it now, but nobody wants to be the guy to trade Mike Trout. It's pretty much impossible to get enough value.

mattyjames1 (Canada): How do you feel about Rowdy Tellez?

Mark Barry: 80 grade name. He's a pretty solid hitter that is going to need to keep hitting because there's not a lot of value defensively. The Morales signing could keep him in the minors for awhile.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Thinking seriously about moving Tulo as I have Swanson ready to go. Tulo seems to really be slipping in the SS rankings. What range of prospect should I be expecting back in a Tulowitzki trade? Top 10? Top 50?

Mark Barry: Shoot for Top 10, settle for top 50 or multiple top 100s.

Twins Fan (St Paul Mn): do you think fernando romero is a good fantasy bet?

Mark Barry: I'm intrigued about what came out of his brief stint at High-A, so he's definitely a good one to keep an eye on.

NatiRedlegs1990 (Ohio): I'm a rebuilder in my 24 team dynasty team and need to start getting some close to to ready MLB SP. What are some SP prospects I could get in return for Chatwood and Tyler Anderson ? I have Stephenson,Gonsalves,Fedde,Keller,Jay,Quantrill,Jordan Montgomery,Dakota Hudson,Lauer and Norge, Thanks

Mark Barry: I sort of love Tyler Anderson and have been grabbing him everywhere I can. I don't know how it happened.

It looks like you have a lot of good options and lottery tickets in the system already. I don't know if you could get top-tier guys that are close to ready with Chatwood or Anderson by themselves, but you could probably pair them with a prospect or two for an upgrade.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Given that much of Goldschmidt's fantasy value is tied to his ability to run, when would be a good time to sell? Fairly soon?

Mark Barry: It sounds like a cop out, but it all depends on your contention cycle. You could probably get a ton by trading Goldy right now, but that's also because he's really good and would give you a better chance of winning.

Brad (NJ): Give me your thoughts on Ian Happ and Tyler Oneill it seems like there are some big variance on the top 100 lists so far with these two. I would think happ easily is a top 25 guy and Oneill easily top 50. BUt I also think in terms of fantasy baseball so defense and position dont matter to me.

Mark Barry: I think both of these guys get dinged on some of these lists because of defense. O'Neill is interesting, but the high minor league strikeout rates scare me a lot. Happ is a lot safer, and as you mentioned, a lot better. The only issue with Happ is where he will play, and whether it will be on the North Side.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Chris Paddack - what do you think his ultimate upside is? Is he a good dynasty target in a 350 man minors? With the injury, will be pitch at all next year?

Mark Barry: Who knows? He sort of came out of nowhere and was doing really crazy things in A ball before getting hurt. I would guess he might pitch in September this season, if at all. I'd probably snag him as a lotto ticket in a league that big.

Jim (LA): Make a fair trade for Mike Trout, which team and players would hypothetically get it done for both sides? Baez, Schwarber, Jimenez, Contreras and Cease? Whats yours?

Mark Barry: That's a great question. I've tried this before and came up with trade packages too absurd to even offer. For instance, I wouldn't take that offer if I were the Angels. He is just too insanely valuable.

Maybe Seager, Pederson, Alvarez, and Bellinger? Verdugo? Which the Dodgers probably wouldn't even offer.

fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Thanks for the chat Mark, just one more question if you have time. I invested heavily in Buxton a few years back. I was extremely happy to see his power come alive at the end of last season (9 HR's in last about 30 games). Still quite young, is this the year he puts it all together?

Mark Barry: That last stretch was really what we were looking for, huh? I would stay invested in Buxton and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he went 20/20 this season.

Mark Barry: I think that should do it for tonight. That was really fun. Thanks for hanging out!