Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday January 06, 2017 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeffrey is our senior prospect writer and co-host of the For All You Kids Out There podcast.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, the queue is full, so we will start a couple minutes early. Got some cookies and Leonard Cohen in my headphones.

AJ (Canada): Greetings fellow Owls supporter, thanks for the chat. If you have a pick between 2 and 5 in a first year player draft, and your MLB and farm teams are strong (and deep) in OF and SP, assuming Senzel goes #1, would you take Maitan early, or still go with best player available (Ray/Lewis/Groome/Rutherford/Moniak, etc)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Of course being a Wednesdayite gets you moved to the top of the queue. I think you are getting too clever here. Maitan's ceiling isn't *that* much higher than those guys that the lead time, general risk, and positional uncertainty are worth going off the board.

Also, you think Abdi finally breaks through with Lee out for the year? Also, man this team misses Kieran Lee.

kyduncan (Rochester, NY): I see alot of Rochester Redwings games, thus have seen all the Twinkies as seems the rosters are often interchangeable. Do you think Adam Brett Walker gets 200 MLB ABs this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean, the Twins are bad enough on paper that could happen. But he is blocked by better bats, and generally I don't think playing him that much is a great idea.

People (US): Who loves Robert Gsellman more than you?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett thought he would be higher on his personal Top 101. So there's at least one non-Gsellman family member. Also--and I don't know what this actually means or if it was actually true--the Mets supposedly made him untouchable in trade discussions this offseason. I suppose we can quibble on how many trade discussions they were actually in of course.

tomshipley75 (Chicago): Did Steve Stone name your podcast?

Jeffrey Paternostro: For all you kids out there, "for all you kids out there" is something Keith Hernandez often says before diving into some basic baseball fundamentals that were either displayed or lacking in a play he just saw.

darthack2661 (Draft Central): Jeff, who has a better career at SS, Arcia, Peraza, or Mondesi? Asking for a friend with a lower pick in a keeper draft....

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ooh, three guys I never really loved as prospects. Mondesi is the best bet to stick at shortstop long term, but he is also the least interesting fantasy dude. Peraza might end up in the outfield before shortstop, but I might like his bat a touch more than Arcia. On balance I guess you take Arcia and hope the bat bounces back some. Have you considered drafting another position?

jnyy (OR): What are your thoughts on recent NYY 40-man roster additions Yefrey Ramirez and Ronald Herrera?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't have a recent look at Ramirez, but Herrera looked like the kind of role 4 type that the Yanks tend to do well with. Less fastball and more polish/pitchability than your typical short righty Double-A arm that gets a 40-man add. Fastball was low 90s with effort to keep it there later in starts, three useable secondaries. I liked the change best. Not an obvious relief profile if he moves there, but again, Yanks do well with these guys.

misterbob (pa): What are your thoughts on Roman Quinn? Is he ready to hit enough and stay healthy enough to earn a starting spot in the Phils outfield this year? I think he can be a switch hitting .280, 50+ steal, 100+ run leadoff guy who also plays above average outfield D-----are you on board with that upside or do you think otherwise?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I have no idea what the Phillies are doing with their outfield in the short term. They have to start figuring out what they have with guys like Quinn, Williams, Altherr, and they still seem to be interested in a veteran RF bat after trading for Kendrick to play LF. I've always liked Quinn, and I think your projections is a little above the median, but not egregious. There is that matter of staying healthy. The injury stuff has been kind of freakish, but at a certain point you got to stay on the field for 140 games a year.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Does Matt Olson have enough boosh power to make up for his sub-par hit tool? Grades for both?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We're down on Olson, due to the hit tool issues and the likelihood he fits best at first. Power is long and strong, and he won't get enough of it into games if he is a .240 hitter. Brendan wrote him up as a pop off the bench and I agree.

Larry (Minnesota): Can you explain the excitement around Ozzie Albies as a prospect? I know he's a good defender, but it's at second base instead of shortstop. Offensively, there's no power and not great walks. So it's basically all batting average driven, right? How is this guy ranked so highly?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's 19 and hit in the upper minors? That's usually a really good sign? Part of this is a function of the minors being down overall, so guys that might have fit better in the back half of a Top 101, now end up like 30-50 because of a shallow talent pool. But he's not bad at shortstop (and we don't consider that the Braves won't play him there for the purposes of ranking, they might also trade him for Brian Dozier and then he is a 50 SS for the Twins). And the hit tool is legit, and he's a plus-plus runner that will pick up some extra bases that way.

Jason (Charlotte): How many Braves do you see making the Top 101? As many as 8 ? Swanson, Albies, Acuna, Allard, Newcomb, Soroka, Anderson and Maitan

Jeffrey Paternostro: I could see a case for 12. It won't be 12. And I know that because I have already filed it. I know the Yanks get the lion's share of the hype, but the Braves system is also insanely deep.

Jason (Charlotte): Do you think at this time next year we will be talking about how underrated Patrick Weigel was ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He is one of the 12, so I don't know how big a jump you get past that. He's somewhat a victim of the depth of the Braves system I suppose in terms of national profile.

Carson (NY): Apparently Dom Smith is down from 258 to 235 with added muscle. If that is true, what does this mean for Dom Smith as a prospect and player going forward?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think it was true last year too when he was at Barwis. And he was at Barwis the year before in Michigan too. Keeping the weight off in-season has been the bigger issue for him, and I still feel icky talking about a 20-somethings weight issues. Early ITBSOHL stories are still ITBSVOHL stories and should be treated accordingly.

Wesley (Anaheim): Apparently 2 execs said that's Gleyber Torres is the number one prospect in the majors. What do you think about that?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I talked about this a bit on Flags Fly Forever, and it's too rich for my blood. We have him ranked very highly, but he's not a sure-shot shortstop, nor a lock to get to 50 pop, so I don't see how you get him over the guys that have performed in the majors, or the guys with more upside in the minors.

Lougle (Queens): Is Kevin Newman a more valuable fantasy asset in a dynasty OBP/SLG league? If so how far up the [unpublished] rankings would you put him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: That's more Bret and Ben's gig, but I would say he's actually probably better in a AVG league. He's not gonna hit for much power, and the walks tend to dwindle once major league arms figure that out. Hit tool is the carrying tool here.

Jesse (Home o' Paul Wall): Who is the better prospect Francis Martes or David Paulino?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We ranked Martes higher on the Astros list, and he's a fair bit higher on the 101. Paulino potentially has better stuff, but he isn't that far ahead on the development curve, and the injury history should concern you.

Greggy (Psl ): In how many systems would Thomas Szapucki be the best prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Without actually going back and double-checking this, I think it's a half dozenish. Exactly the ones you'd expect, I imagine.

Isaac (S.L.O.): Robert Stephenson. Is he just a dude or just getting warmed up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I like Stephenson more than the rest of the staff. He does have #thegoodstuff, but at a certain point it gets tough to fix command and approach.

Ron (Texarkana): Will Ian Happ be a difference-making player, or does his lack of true position force him into more of a league average player?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, I don't know what to do with Happ. I think he will hit, but even at second, the bat isn't crazy-attractive. He's relatively high floor, and in the right org to figure out how to deploy him, but I think something like 55/50 is about right.

Harold (Mississippi): Does Zach Collins value depend upon whether he plays behind the dish or manning 1B?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeppppppppppp

Weston (Az): Hey Jeff, I know you're a Mets guy, so can you tell me what you think of this trade- AJ Pollock to the Mets for Matz, Lagares and Wuilmer Becerra

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know why the Dbacks would move Pollock for three guys with big durability questions? I also think the Mets are in a spot where they just can't trade a starter because of the rotation-wide injury concerns and general lack of depth.

Jack (Everywhere): What can you tell me about Jose Medina (OF, NYM)? Seemed to perform well last year in rookie ball.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Rando Mets short-season dudes also get you moved to the top of the queue. He did hit, but honestly I have no idea how. He is wide open and steps in the bucket, and the swing itself is pretty noisy. Weird body type too, and limited to a corner. The Mets actually sort of do well with this profile too, but it usually tops out in Double-A.

LoyalRoyal (KS): Please rank the following OF prospects based upon impact this season: Lewis Brinson, Roman Quinn, Dalton Pompey, Austin Meadows, and Nick Williams. Thanks and Cheers...

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, that is tough, since there is a strong case that none of them will see significant major league time.

I guess Meadows 1, contingent on how quickly--or if--they move Cutch. Then Quinn, Brinson, Williams, Pompey. Could see Brinson and Williams needing an adjustment period in the majors, and I don't know if the Jays have a use for Pompey.

Ian (London): Just how special is Hunter Greene? I'm a bit shocked he's 1-1 material considering his bat seems questionable from what I've heard if he goes the hitting route at SS, and with regards to his pitching, I mean, he's a HS pitcher and the obvious risks associated with that. Is it the athleticism? But if we're going the athleticism route, don't we then have to consider guys like Adell and Lewis? Is it the intrigue of a two way guy? Enlighten me, Dr. Paternostro. Perhaps I'm missing something.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's pretty clearly going the pitching route, no? The amateur side is not really my game, but he's a great athlete with a huge fastball. That generally will get scout's attentions. Also, it is January, this changes a lot in five months. Just ask...well, any number of prep pitchers.

Jeff (Miami): Is Shedric Long a top 100 guy right now? Can he be a helium guy and ultimately maybe be a top 50 guy a year or so from now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A little too rich for my blood. I think the breakout is real, but need to see the bat play in the upper minors before I go in that hard on him, due to the profile issues.

Jayson (Texas): What can we expect out of Jurickson Profar? Does the elite talent still exist and what is it now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know, and I don't know if the Rangers have a spot to give him so we can find out. For the purposes of the 25U, Jarrett said he treated him like a fairly low risk 55/50 type player, if that helps for context. In the end, he just hasn't hit in a while, and whether it is injuries or not, that does matter.

Greg (ATL): How many prospects in the Braves system would be the top prospect in the Angels system?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not as many as you think, we like Jahmai Jones a lot. Diamondbacks and Royals are better systems for this exercise.

Harvey (NJ): How many (and which) Mets prospects do you think should at least be in the discussion for a Top 101 (not necessarily who would actually make it)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The top 6 all had cases, and I imagine all would have made a 150 or 175.

John (CT): Happy New Year. Who has the better season in 2017 Byron Buxton or Andrew Benintendi? And what numbers would you project for each?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If we are just looking at the offense, I'd take Benintendi easily. Buxton is still a very good defender in CF so that helps, but I don't think enough to get him past Benintendi. Maybe .250/.300/.400 for Buxton and .290/.360/.475 for Benintendi.

Anthony (Houston): I get the sneaking suspicion that the Bruce trade (or lack thereof) is inhibiting Sandy's ability to add payroll, specifically to sign a free agent reliever or two. Does that suspicion have merit, and if so who do you think Sandy will add to the 'pen once he realizes he can't get more than a plugged nickel for Bruce?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Why would you suspect that? I mean, they haven't out and out said it, I guess, but they've all but said it. I think they add relief arms that fall through the cracks on February 10th. There's usually a couple, and they can guarantee them late inning opportunities. All they have to do is beat out Hansel Robles and Erik Goeddel.

Ron (Texarkana): Would it be fair to say that Yadier Alvarez has the same potential as Alex Reyes, as a possible front-line starter?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Ehhhhhhhhh, okay I can maybe see that, as long as we acknowledge that is much, much further down the line, and there is a lot more risk.

Oscar (New Castle, IN): How much luster has Anderson Espinoza lost by moving to San Diego?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Assuming this isn't a backhanded reference to Boston's ability to pump their prospects awfully well in the media, our reports from the Midwest League post-trade were quite good.

ColeWhittier (Pasadena, CA): What are your thoughts on Jeimer Candelario? What do you grade his hit & power tool and have you seen him play D?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't get any Cubs affiliates in my neck of the woods, but the reports are he is improving and will be passable at third. Power won't be special for a corner, but he will hit enough to be a solid everyday guy.

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): Is Mejia or Sisco the better long term prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Mejia is the better bet to catch (and be a better catcher), and I don't think the offensive gap is significant enough to make up the difference behind the plate.

Doug (Tennessee): What happened to Garrett Whitley? Seems to have lost a lot of his luster after being drafted. Another Rays whiff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The reports are bad, but he was always going to be a long term project, I guess. I didn't really get the pick at the time. If it comes together, it's great, but how often does it come together?

misterbob (pa): I really like David Dahl-----what kind of numbers would you project for him this year with maybe 500 AB's as a starting OF? In addition to his hit tool, I also think he can be a well above average base stealer (20+) with a little more experience. What are your thoughts Jeff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I missed badly on him when we did my preseason debate on him with Mark Anderson. He's definitely changed the type of hitter he is, but he could be a monster in Coors with the grip it and rip it pull side approach. I would tap the brakes on the hit tool a bit until we see him go through the league again, but I think there's enough power and speed that even if he is more of a .270 hitter, that he's still a good regular. I would give him the car keys in Colorado, but I also confess to never know what the Rockies are actually going to do.

Steve (Baltimore): Loving your and the team's work over the past few months - when will the Top 101 be coming out? Looking forward!

Jeffrey Paternostro: The 101 w/ write-ups is in the Annual, and we usually post the list itself on site around the street date for the book. I don't know if that is the plan again though.

AJ (Canada): So you wouldnt take position into the decision - Maitan being an IF as opposed to other top options who are OFs - based on the general risk and lead time? As for Abdi, he could do but probably depends on the formation and whims of Carvalhal. Between McMannaman, Abdi, Hutchinson, Wallace and Bannan he's got solid options to choose from in midfield

Jeffrey Paternostro: Based on the lead time, unless you really know what your team is going to look like in five years, I wouldn't.

Hutch is first name on the sheet of course, but I do wonder if this means Wallace gets squeezed out again. I know he isn't the youngest, but he just seems to offer a little more edge on the wing and set pieces than his replacements. A lot of this could be solved if Bannan's form was a little more consistent this season I guess.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Jeffrey, Which pitching prospects have true ace potential?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I was just going to answer with "Robert Gsellman," but I worry it would be taken as something other than a quip.

The actual answer is true ace potential is only seen in hindsight, after dudes turn into aces, but if you want front-of-the-rotation starter potential, that I can give you: Reyes, Giolito, Glasnow, Gsellman, Hader, Alvarez, Espinoza, Keller, Martes, Groome.

Oh fine Craig, I guess Honeywell too.

Andrew (DC): Do you have any favorite sleepers in the Nationals organization?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Most of my favorite sleepers are now in their Top Ten after they gutted it. Jesus Luzardo is the obvious one I guess.

Jimmy (Gwinett): Do you think Newcomb can sharpen his command enough to become a solid #3 ? Should I plan on seeing him all summer at AAA ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I keep making that bet every year, and one of these years it might actually pay off. I do think a full year at Gwinnett is possible though.

K. Maitan (Deep in the Dominican): Where should I begin my career ? GCL, Danville, or really push it at Rome?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh geez, has a 17-year-old IFA started in full-season ball since Minaya left the Mets? Danville is fine. This stuff gets sussed out in XST of course.

Harley (NJ): Is it fair to put any comps/projections on Wuilmer Becerra yet? Or is there too much uncertainty?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think when he was healthy I threw "late-career-Marlon-Byrd" on him, but the injuries make him a tough comp now.

Yachty (NM): How much more would we be hearing about Robert Gsellman if he was on, say the Orioles or the Marlins?

Jeffrey Paternostro: How much do we talk about the Orioles and Marlins systems though? I get what you are saying, but he gets talked about more than Amir Garrett and Josh Hader who are ranked roughly similar. I mean I might be yammering on about him less of course. The Angry Bird man would be thrilled as well.

Greg (ATL): So how many prospects in the Braves system would be the top prospect in the Diamondbacks or Royals systems?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think I can get to 12, past that it depends on how you feel about Austin Riley I guess.

Matt (DC): Kopech doesn't have ace potential? I know the RP risk is high, but if it all clicks?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So "if it all clicks" gets me probably another 10 guys to "ace potential." Kopech would have been the last out if it makes you feel better, but yeah, the RP risk is a bit high for me. As is the risk his arm explodes at 150 innings.

Also, Craig has just gchatted me to let me know A.B. Walker is now with the Orioles. Again, I don't recommend any team giving him 200 MLB at-bats.

Dom (Bronx): The Yankees traded for ton of prospects at the deadline. How has their stock changed since the yankees acquired them? Spcifically- Tate, Frazier, Sheffield, Gleyber

Jeffrey Paternostro: Tate found his velocity again, which is good, the early-season reports were verging on org guy. System is too deep for him to even make a Top 15 as a reliever I think, and they don't have a shortage of hard-throwing potential late inning arms even after the Rule 5 raid.

The other three I think are more or less the same. We're talking about a month of minor league baseball basically.

Jake (Wisconsin): Hi, Jeffrey! Thanks for the chat. I'm curious about Brewers prospect Brandon Woodruff. His numbers last year look dominant (4.3 K:BB, led the minors in Ks with 173), and I read some reports that he was hitting the upper-90s with his fastball deep into games. Other scouts seem unsure about his arm motion and command. What do you think his future big league contribution looks like? We're starved for pitching prospects in Milwaukee, so it's easy to fantasize about Woodruff, Hader, Ortiz, and even Jorge Lopez all hitting their ceilings as average-or-better starters.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, you pretty much have it. Plus fastball with some questions about all the other stuff you need to start. If we ranked 15 guys he'd have made it on the Milwaukee list, it's a really good system, and I have to make a cutoff somewhere to get 30 lists out in 12 weeks.

Terry (Chicago): Kopech or Gsellman?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gimme the guy that has already thrown 150 innings in a season and made it to the majors. Kopech probably has more upside, but the risk profile is still pretty scary.

Jason (Charlotte): Could Acuna be the breakout prospect of 2017 ? He could have been this year if not for the thumb injury.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, based on where we ended up ranking him, he might qualify as the breakout prospect of 2016. We also might be a year early, it happens. We really like him though.

Greg (ATL): Is Dustin Peterson a regular?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man that is tough in LF with the power profile. Though the fact that you can even have that conversation about the Braves like 17th best prospect or whatever is something.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): The Rox have so many OFs when do you think Raimel Tapia will get a shot and how high can he get that batting average up in Colorado? How many XBH do you see him hitting in his prime?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, he is in a tough spot. You can send him back to ABQ as he will only be 23 and only played 24 games there last year, but it doesn't seem to be getting any less crowded, and I don't know why you'd deal him. I saw enough improvements in the approach in Double-A--yeah it still isn't great--that I could see him squeezing out a .300 BA with a lot of doubles.

Terry (Chicago): Giolito or Gsellman? How are are you willing to take this?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will say that there are major league teams that have him over Giolito.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): How much does Renato Nunez's winter league explosion raise his hopes of putting it all together? 11HR, 22BB in 168 AB. Still K'd 1 of every 4 AB, but still only 22. What do you think of Nunez?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We already know he can hit Double-A pitching? That's the level he's facing or thereabouts. I think he's in the Matt Olson range, good bench bat with some pop, maybe enough there to be a fringe or second-division regular.

Terry (Chicago): Do you think most people would agree with your answer to Kopech v Gsellman?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nah, and I know what it means if I'm wrong, but it's my list.

Tiny R (TX): Gallardo to the Mariners for Seth Smith. How much does this suck for the Mets?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am not sure which side of the trade the Mets would want. Maybe both actually.

Hank (GA): If it all clicks for Acuna, are we talking about a guy that could go .280/.360 with 25 homers and 20 steals? Are those numbers too high or low?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe a touch high on the BA/OBP and I think he slows down some as he ages, but you are in the ballpark.

Teddy (LA): Could the Dodgers trade for a guy Jurickson Profar to man 2B? What kind of value could he bring to a team in need of a MIF?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure, but I really have no idea how to value him, and he's already arb eligible.

kyduncan (Rochester, NY): Any thoughts on Max Povse (just traded to SEA from ATL for Alex Jackson) I like 6'8" pitchers.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's a much higher-ranked prospect in the Mariners system? I tend to like taller pitchers less, but there's three major league pitches here. I don't know what the out pitch is in the majors yet, so he may just be a backend starter in the end.

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): Do you believe in Jack Flaherty as a long term prospect. Really up and down year last year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's on our Cardinals list, going up next week, but the stock is down a bit. He doesn't have the largest margins for error. I think the system has gotten better around him as well.

b (c): Please rank order the following outfielders with respect to fantasy potential -- Kyle Tucker, Kyle Lewis, Tyler O'Neill, Corey Ray, Lourdes Gurriel, Christin Stewart.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I said I wouldn't do the Parks thing for these, but I am sorely tempted just due to the complete lack of context.

My non-binding take

Tucker, Ray, O'Neill, Stewart, Gurriel (have the Jays even said he is an outfielder-only). Lewis I want to punt on until I see him healthy, but if you want to risk it, you could get him as high as second pretty easily.

Liam (In an alley): What are your opinions on crawdads? Also if Mike trout was a sandwich, what kind of sandwich would he be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Too much work for too little fish. Though I vaguely recall having them five ways, slightly soused, at a place somewhere in the quarter a few years back. That was pretty good.

Trout is excellent, a bit boring, but also somehow underrated. Turkey club?

Tim (Baltimore): Who is your highest ranked prospect that might not even be on most lists and how high is he?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You know, no one is coming to mind...

James (Arlington): Jurickson Profar or or Dansby Swanson? Purely from an offensive standpoint, similar?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think at this point you would prefer to bet on Swanson's bat. Though if Profar does get back to being PROFAR, I think the offensive peak could look similar.

Viktor (MD): What do you anticipate is the actual upside of Luke Weaver?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm kinda out on Weaver. He's always been a divisive profile, but I just think the stuff's too hittable. Maybe like a somewhat frustrating 3/4.

Westbrook (Toronto): Can you rank in terms of trade value: Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Carlos Martinez, Steve Matz

Jeffrey Paternostro: Martinez, Stroman, Matz (a small gorge), Bundy. Could see a case for flipping 2/3, depending on how you want to weight health risks.

Greg (NY): Now that you have greater overall prospect duties and responsibilities, do you think you'll be covering/following/watching Mets prospects maybe less than in previous years or will it probably just be the usual Mets stuff + all the added good stuff?

Jeffrey Paternostro: As it worked out I am seeing Binghamton opening weekend. Granted, this is mostly to see New Hampshire since Hartford is out of town for the first week of the season. Bingo doesn't project as a particularly interesting roster from a prospect perspective right now. Columbia has the actually interesting roster, and I am making a point to see them in Lakewood. Past that, yeah, thems the breaks. I am working out of Norwich and Hartford primarily, so I imagine I will see Bingo and Brooklyn when they come through. And I will be spending a week-plus in the Appy this Summer, and I could see a Gimenez assignment getting me out to see Kingsport. But I probably saw less than half as many Mets affiliate games last year as I'd see in a typical season.

HB (LA): Could you give a % chance that Alex Verdugo and Bellinger become everyday players in majors? Not reaching full potential, but just normal big leaguer 400+ ABs

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think it's reasonably high for both. Verdugo maybe 50%, Bellinger closer to 80%.

fawkesmulder (Zzyzx): Will Luis Castillo get any run in Miami with the opening of a rotation spot? :( And how good is Fernando Romero...seems like he has all the tools to be an ace pitcher, right?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I could see the Marlins trying him as a starter, but I really think he is better-suited to relief.

Romero is a good pitching prospect, but let's see him a little further away from the TJ before we go nuts.

Jason (Charlotte): Should Moncada spend most of the season at AAA ? I'm dreaming of the number he would put up BB&T park

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I wouldn't rush him back to the majors. And the White Sox have no reason to.

Jason (Charlotte): What is the likelihood of a Alex Jackson rebound ? Would you put him behind the plate or keep in the OF ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm sure with some research I can find a prospect that whiffed as much as he did in the low minors and eventually put it together and was a solid major leaguer, but way more that just kept striking out. I think you need to let him focus on the offensive adjustments and not throw "hey now you are a catcher too" on him as well. Ship sailed on that one.

Ron (Texarkana): The hype train on Juan Soto has begun.. What FV grade do you have on him, currently?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I might have accidentally cut the brakes on this one too. We wrote him up as OFP 60/Likely 50 on the Nats list. Which I don't do lightly.

Donald T (the Towers): Saw debate on a site about Jack Flaherty vs Luke Weaver. Said Weaver better short-term, but Flaherty higher ceiling and more likely to be starter long-term. thoughts??

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I can co-sign that. They are close enough for all that to be well within the fudge factor though.

Chase (TX): Is there one or more among the promising san diego arms whom you like more than others?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This isn't just me, but we like Quantrill a lot. Might be a boring pick I guess.

Jeff paternostro (2014): Is terry fired yet? Also am I still running a podcast?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh man, there is so much I need to tell you. But mostly, that dude has bottom pair, but you probably can't get off the hand anyway.

Tom (San Francisco): Franklin Barreto's defensive home in the majors will be 1) SS, 2) 2B, or 3) CF?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's the A's, man. It might end up being all three, but I think they give him a longer run at shortstop than we'd expect.

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): How confident are you in Matt Manning being able to put everything together and make the front end of a rotation?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's far enough away where the confidence interval is quite large. I like him a lot though.

Lt. Kaffee (Court Room): If you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Parks hasn't worked here in years, man.

Zwibi (Freezing cold): Liked the write up about the Reds. How much do you think Great America helps his average-ish power play up. Lot of decent hitting parks in that division that could help his baseline numbers play up.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm gonna guess this is about Senzel? We don't really consider that for ranking purposes, though it may help for fantasy purposes, and internally, we have reports that suggest the power might even end up better than averagish.

Madison (Nyc ): What does a Thor extension look like?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Too rich for their blood.

Man, I don't even know. How much of a discount are you getting? How many FA years will he actually let you buy out? He's had a bunch of arm scares, but he also reports everything unlike most pitchers, so does that queer the data on the risk. Also, he's a pitcher.
He got to the majors young so you might be able to lock in a shorter extension with some cost certainty for the arb years and some expensive FA years. This Mets FO wouldn't even extend deGrom pre-2016 which would likely have been a lot cheaper than what Syndergaard will want.

cracker73 (Florida): Does Dylan Cease have #1 starter potential?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's okay, Everyone doesn't have to be an ace. There's like nine of them in baseball.

Anyway, Cease is really fun and really athletic and a really good prospect, but probably a reliever, because everyone in short-season is probably a reliever.

a.j. (las vegas): where does dustin fowler fit into the Yankees plans? Seems to be developing into a first division regular but a lot of veterans and prospects blocking him.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah he has been pushed way back on the Yankees OF depth chart despite a pretty good season in Double-A from a performance and scouting perspective. I think the Yanks eventually do make a deal from their crazy prospect horde, and he feels like the third guy in it.

Ron (Texarkana): As a prospect writer, how do you feel when you hear 16 yr old Kevin Maitan drawing comparisons to Miguel Cabrera? How much validity can be drawn from a comparison like this?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I heard that about Wilmer Flores too. Every 16-year-old bat with high potential that isn't likely to stick at shortstop gets that comp. We haven't gotten a better comp option since, because no one ever comes close to living up to it.

also cold (entire Northeast): Is Gilbert Lara hype train over? Seeing guys breakout last year like Eloy or Aquino, give me hope. But repeated mixed reports give doubt.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The reports this year weren't great, especially w/rt/ his likely positional home, but he's young and this shit isn't linear. The hype train is over, but there is always the allure of the post-hype sleeper.

DB (da burgh): what is Maitan's likely development path next few years for levels? normal- complex 2017, lowA 2018, and onward? fast - rookie/lowA 2017, highA 2018, and onward? Braves fans seem to think he could be in majors by age 20, so that's a 3 year minor league track

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not impossible, but he could also be Gilbert Lara at 20.

madjockmcferson (simon mcpherson) (Norton, MA): Hi, thanks for your great work. I'm excited about the new BP team and for baseball to start! I'm looking for a catching prospect I can target. I'm at least 2 years away from competing in my dynasty league (2 C league) so i can take a risk if needed (not that catching isn't risky, but you know what I mean). Caratini, Zach Collins, Mitch Garver, Bruce Maxwell, Josmil Pinto, Keibert Ruiz, and Jose Trevino are all on my waiver / draft board. Which of those guys (or someone else) do you think could not murder my team, or maybe even contribute!, and will stay a C? Thanks for any input.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Literally have not seen Josmil Pinto's name in a while. How deep is this dynasty league. Collins is the guy to target, he may not end up a catcher long term (it wasn't easy to find people who thought he'd stick when doing the White Sox stuff), but if he does the offensive potential here smokes everyone else.

As for the rest, a lot of people asked about Maxwell on the A's list, and I think he is a better real life player than fantasy. Graver has some helium off the AFL, but he is also blocked now, and I think he's similar to Maxwell. Trevino you are betting on High Desert performance being real, which, don't do that. Keibert Ruiz is significantly more than two years awa...yeah just take Collins and hope you don't end up with a first baseman.

Jared (Long Island): Would you say its more likely than not that at least one of Aaron Judge or Clint Frazier is a bust?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So how are we defining bust, not even a Role 5 major league starter? I think it would be more likely than not, but not significantly so.

old man (duke's bar): Will Rio Ruiz perform good enough in AAA to earn a shot at 3b this year? if not, I believe Atl will sign/deal for a vet one by next year

Jeffrey Paternostro: He has to beat out Adonis Garcia still? Yeah, he has a shot. I don't think he's the long term answer either though.

Roger (Roger): will Scott Kingery develop enough to become an everday player? Good numbers, speed, defense for level so far... but Philly could spend it's cash for expensive options. Not to mention Galvis could bump there when Crawford established.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jesus, am I about to type "I don't know if Scott Kingery is an upgrade over Freddy Galvis?" Yeah, he might not be. Kingery seems like one of those dudes that is nice to have, but one you generally don't want to have as a starter.

Delta (Lga): If Seth Lugo was prospect eligible does he sneak in at the end of a top 100?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, I am going to blow through a bunch of Mets questions now to help clear out the queue.

He's like a 50/45, or 45/40. Not a sure bet to stick as a starter, may fit better in the pen. That's more back of the Mets Top ten than back of a national top 100.

Peter (Frenchmans): Which non-Top 20 Mets prospect has the best chance of making it into their top 10 by season's end?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh probably want a young IFA breakout here, maybe Gregory Guerrero or Ricardo Cespedes. I guess Church or Luis Silva could theoretically get there, but I don't see a huge shakeup in the Mets Top 10 this year.

Carson (NY): Even though the Mets lost their 2015 first round pick, they seem to have made out pretty well in that draft (Desmond Lindsay in the 2nd and Thomas Szapucki in the 5th). Is it fair to say they made out with two first round talents? Would they each be drafted in the first round in a redraft?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I feel like we might be doing a redraft of that year this Summer? I think Szapucki definitely would be and Lindsay would certainly be in the mix.

Morty (Conn): If the Mets put Dunn in the bullpen, he could be an impact reliever in the ML by___

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett was pushing for 2016 possibilities, but I think it would take longer than people think. He is rawer generally for a college arm rather than just raw as a starter. 2018 at some point.

Tom (Long Island): As a Mets fan myself, I begin to wonder if fellow fans of the team overestimate the strength of the starting rotation for 2017. While I like the guys we have, I'm wondering if it might be a bit overrated due to its high risk of injury. Most of the pitchers do not have a very good health history, and Gsellman aside, I feel the Mets rotation depth is quite shallow. Also I have my doubts on Lugo . I get they are pitchers, and they will break, but maybe we should all calm it down just a little bit. What are your thoughts?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nope. You are absolutely right. Losing out on Colon may end up costing them, since they can't afford to buy those quality of innings elsewhere and they are betting on fullish seasons from Harvey (TOS), Matz (gigantic bone spur), deGrom (nerve cleanup), Syndergaard (throws really hard and has had multiple arm scares), and Gsellman (who obviously I love, but hasn't pitched a full major league season yet, and had offseason surgery). Behind that is Lugo and Ynoa, and literally no one else. They might bring back Duane Below.

O'Ryan (CA): Any reports on Champ Stuart from the AFL? Can't help but wonder what will happen if he can put it all together...

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's Champ Stuart, but in a launching pad. Don't get me wrong, he is fun to watch, but the pitch recognition just never got there.

Tara (nyc): favorite pick of Mets 2016 draft?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If I disqualify Dunn, it's not a super-interesting draft class. I guess I am curious about Planck, even if the 1 million dollar bonus is more a function of what they had to sign him, versus how they valued him.

Craig (NY): Anything there with Peter Alonso?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm skeptical. http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/08/mets-prospects-notes-from-the-field-short-season-got-no-reason/

Scott (Florida): Hypothetically, say someone was able to say to you right now, with certainty, that Tomas Nido will be an above average defensive catcher, but was unable to provide any certainty about his offense. Would that make him a top 100 prospect, being that offensive potential is certainly there?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably? Catchers are weird man. Maybe not, because we don't value that as much as we should, because I think we are bad at discerning it. So if you told me he was definitely a +10 defender or whatever, how much does he actually need to hit to be a regular?

Georges (ATL): How many GMs out there would rather have Andres Gimenez than Maitan?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The Mets do a really underrated job with their IFAs, but you are paying for upside with 16-year-olds, and Maitan just has more. the three million difference in bonus is a rounding error.

Jose (Baltimore): Seems like the Mets are the most interested in trading for Brach, and the teams dont seem TOO far apart. Mets dont want to trade grandy for him, and orioles dont want only bruce for him. Being that their isnt a *huge* difference in value b/t the two, whats a secondary piece with Bruce that could make this trade make sense for both teams. I've seen named thrown around like ynoa, nimmo or cecchini as a second piece. Would they make sense?

Jeffrey Paternostro: What would Brach go for if the Orioles were just looking to deal him? Reliever prices are huge and you get a couple years of control. Start there, then add Bruce and maybe downgrade one of the prospects a bit.

Angela (NY): Kind of surprised more teams aren't trying to trade for Brandon Nimmo. A player with a terrific makeup, rookie eligibility (i think), and is seemingly *almost* an average corner OF, but with definite potential upside.

Jeffrey Paternostro: The Reds were, maybe? It feels like...well...there's no good way to say this...uh...every team has a Brandon Nimmo?

He has value, but those close-to-ready tweeners are at the backend of most org Top 10s.

Henry Hoover (Cape May): If Gavin Cecchini can learn to play 2B at an average or slightly better level, does this make him a starting 2B? Hit tool seems to be a 55, at least.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Close enough I guess, but not a first division one. And it is entirely possible the arm issues will move across the diamond with him.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): What do you think of Angels prospect Matt Thaiss?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he'd be a Top 101 prospect as a catcher. As a first baseman, well being a first base prospect is incredibly hard.

Bobby (NJ): How many AB's do you predict for Reds Peraza and Dilson Herrera?

Jeffrey Paternostro: How many do you predict for Brandon Phillips? They split the rest more or less. It isn't an easy decision, I get it, but Reds probably need to move on and evaluate what they have here. I still like Herrera, FWIW.

Eric ((CA)): Could Max Fried or Nick Kingham end up as #2s?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Fried certainly could. We didn't quite get him there this year, but those OFPs aren't carved into stone.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): How much playing time does Casey Gillaspie get for the Rays this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if he can unseat future-best-SS-in-the-AL-now-1B Brad Miller.

TS (city): How much of Winker's 2016 was wrist injury sapping power? if that is what he will be going forward, does that make him like a 1 or 2 hitter in lineup, just with no speed?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's shown more power in the past, so you'd hope so, and our looks at him this year suggest there's double-digit power in there at least. The problem is if it doesn't come back, as good as his approach is, there isn't a ton of incentive not to go after him, so where does the OBP go?

Jim (CT): None of the Braves SP prospects have Front of the Rotation potential to you? Newcomb, Soroka, Allard, Anderson, Fried?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you grab five OFP 60s in any given year, pretty good odds one outperforms it. This isn't science. Would say Allard and Newcomb have the best chance, but also larger risk factors than the rest.

Albert (Jersey Shore): How much power do you see Delvin Perez developing in the future? 15 HR guy? Too high? Low double digits perhaps?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, we got some wide-ranging feedback on Perez. 15 HR seems like a nice median.

DA (NY): What is Tyler O'Neill's best case scenario? And how likely is that? Thank you.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Affliction cut-off tee model. Very high.

On the baseball field? .260, 30 HR type, solid D. That's like 80th percentile or so?

troykocur (Grand Coulee, Saskatchewan, Canada): hi jeff, 2 questions for you... 1)Lucas Giolito or Gleyber Torres, who you take first and why? what will their numbers look like once they hit the bigs? 2)Zach Collins of the CWS, is he actually that good or will he end up being a backup catcher or transform to 1b? what you think he can do at the major league level? thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: 1. Close enough here I might take the bat? There's a lot of volatility around Giolito right now, though I think a change of scenery could help.
2. It is way more likely he is a 1B than backup C. I think he probably has to catch to have a real major league career, but the bat is legit so

Dirk Diggler (LA): Is Cardinals Marco Gonzales even in the picture this season? Finally healthy, is he anything?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think so? Reyes and Weaver don't have clear spots and I would have to imagine are ahead of him?

Maybe? What does healthy Gonzales even look like at this point. We are now three years out from him having a good run in the upper minors.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, I normally don't like leaving this many questions in the queue, but we are approaching three hours and life goes on. We'll do it again in a couple weeks when I definitely won't still be talking about Robert Gsellman.