Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday January 18, 2017 8:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Bret is the Managing Editor and Fantasy Manager at Baseball Prospectus

Bret Sayre: It's #ChatNight. You've got questions. I've got answers, most of the time. That's how this works. Fire away.

Ryan (Toledo): Is it crazy to think Matt Manning becomes the best pitcher in his draft class?

Bret Sayre: It's not crazy. He probably has the second-highest upside of any arm in the class next to Groome.

Josue (SD): Please rank Amed Rosario, Willy Adames, Cody Bellinger and Kopesch in a 20 team dynasty league. Thank you!

Bret Sayre: Rosario, Bellinger, Adames, Kopech.

Tim (Sota): Does Byron Buxton live up to the hype? How soon?

Bret Sayre: Yes, and he shows enough this year to make you not ask that question again in 12 months.

Harry (SD): Does Austin Hedges have 20 home run power?

Bret Sayre: In the PCL, sure. In the majors, nope.

Jeff (Brubank): Has Mitch Haniger officially gone from sleeper to overhyped?

Bret Sayre: I long to live in a universe where Haniger is overhyped. He's probably just a lefty-masher, but there's a small chance he's more. If he's being valued as more than that, say no thank you and move on.

Kyle Schwarber (Chicago): What do I do more of in 2017? Home runs, games played at catcher.

Bret Sayre: Home runs, and it's not particularly close.

RDBL2014 (Concord, CA): Can we expect anything from Alex Cobb this year?

Bret Sayre: I expect him to return to 75-ish percent of his pre-surgery form. A below 4.00 ERA and around 150 strikeouts if he can stick it out for 180-190 innings.

Wesley (Shinola): Is michael Kopech an Ace stud or likely heading towards the bullpen?

Bret Sayre: The latter.

Jem (C): How good can W.Contreras be with the bat?

Bret Sayre: He can hit .290 with 15-18 homers in his best years.

Tim Raines (Cooperstown): Where would you factor in the following names into your Top 50 2016 signees list: Jose Albertos, Fernando Tatis Jr, Jesus Sanchez, Sixto Sanchez? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: I probably wouldn't, except for Sixto. He's slide into the 30s somewhere. Also, congrats! Big day!

AJ (Canada): Thanks for the chat Bret. In a new dynasty draft, how early would you take older, win-now types - e.g. Votto, Cano, Bautista; building in the likelihood they will fall some in this type of draft vs re-draft? Conversely, how early would you take prospects - those close (e.g. Moncada/Reyes), vs those w/ high ceiling but ways away (e.g. Rodgers/Robles)?

Bret Sayre: You're welcome. I'd be comfortable taking Votto and Cano among the top 30 players, depending on how your league swings. Bautista not nearly as high as them, but still in the top-100 (unless it's an OBP). Moncada/Reyes are likely gone by pick 40, so you're going to have to reach to get them (probably best not to). Rodgers/Robles are likely to get snagged before the 75th player is off the board and they should.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Noted BP author says you are insanely off-base on your Ian Happ ranking, and that he belongs in the Dominic Smith tier of losers and never-will-bes (paraphrasing). Care to respond with a pot-stirring takedown of his worldview?

Bret Sayre: This could not narrow it down any less. (But Happ can hit.)

Jessie (NY): How good can Robert Gsellman be? Who would you rather have, him Giolito or Glasnow?

Bret Sayre: Gsellman could be a solid SP3 as soon as this year-don't overlook him just because you're afraid to jump on a speeding train. I'd rather have Giolito though.

Sammy (Salinas): Do you trust Ben Badler? He's the only one that has seen Kevin Maitan and basis for entire hype.

Bret Sayre: Ben is incredibly excellent when it comes to international prospects and free agency. So, yes. (Also, he's not the only basis for the Maitan hype.)

CyMature (Cooperstown Rest Home): Rafael Devers: can he hit 3rd or 4th someday in Boston?

Bret Sayre: Yes he can.

Mark (Seattle): Would you really go Groome over Lewis if forced?

Bret Sayre: Who's forcing me? And yes, I'd really take Groome over Lewis. It serves me no purpose to lie to you all.

Quinton (Houston): Is Eloy hype or legitimacy? In the mold of Mike Stanton?

Bret Sayre: He doesn't have Stanton's power, but yea Jimenez is legit potential middle-of-the-order power bat.

Musial6 (Stl): Cody Bellinger o/u 50 games as LA OF this year?

Bret Sayre: Under.

Jim (Middlefield): I'm having a lot of anxiety deciding on my final keeper in a dynasty league. Top of the rotation is easy, but after the first 3, I'm at a loss. Appreciate your opinion of my choices: Matt Moore, Taijuan Walker, Drew Smyly, Matt Andriese, or Yordano Ventura. It's an AL only league, but I have an open crossover slot.

Bret Sayre: I still stand with Walker.

Lt. Kaffee (Court Room): If you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base?

Bret Sayre: Santiago was a substandard marine.

Harry (Roanoke): What kind of comp would you have for Nick Senzel?

Bret Sayre: Statistically, how about Anthony Rendon?

treynay3 (Grand Rapids): Hey Bret, I could use some help on deep dynasty assets for a prospect draft. 20 team dynasty league, 150+ prospects owned. I have two upcoming picks and I've put together a list of 10 guys that I'm having a terrible time differentiating. My list is: Jake Bauers, Jahmai Jones, Lucas Erceg, Christin Stewart, Taylor Trammell, Alec Hansen, Walker Buehler, Sixto Sanchez, Justin Dunn, Sandy Alcantara I was thinking about one hitter and one pitcher but really I just want the two best values from that list. How would you rank the top 3-5 in case a few get taken between my picks? Obviously some of them are closer to the majors and some are much farther away which is why I'm struggling. Any help is appreciated. Thanks!

Bret Sayre: I'd go Jones, Alcantara, Erceg, Dunn.

Truganini (CO): Ryan McMahon was just listed by Christopher Crawford as one of the 10 biggest prospect fallers from 2016. What's your take? Do you think he's going to be the Rockies long term answer at 1B - something they've been longing for since the days of Todd Helton or is he more likely nothing more than a Mark Reynolds lite?

Bret Sayre: It certainly wasn't a great season, but he played a full season in Double-A at 21. Too early to give up on him, and I think there's a good chance he's the starting first baseman in Colorado at some point in 2018.

Kevin (Omaha): What happened to your podcast? Not interested in doing that anymore?

Bret Sayre: Which of my currently ongoing podcasts are you referring to?

Cal Guy (Cal): Didi had a good season in 2016, but I'm getting vibes of Gleyber being the next Jeter on the field and in fans' hearts for the next decade+... am I being prematurely irrational?

Bret Sayre: The Jeter stuff is irrational, but Torres is the more important part of the next good Yankee team.

caseyj15 (Medford, OR): What is the future of Jarad Eickhoff in your estimation?

Bret Sayre: A lot of what we saw in 2016. He's a very generically useful fantasy starter, which isn't a bad thing at all.

Szapucki (underground): Am I Joe Musgrove or can I be more?

Bret Sayre: More. Way more.

Mike Ilitch's barber (Motown): Does M. Fulmer have another level? His K rate tanked in the 2nd half last year. Fatigue or hitters figuring him out?

Bret Sayre: Both, but I don't think there's another level to him. That said, the version of him now is pretty good.

Tim (Chi-Town): Is Miguel Sano okay?

Bret Sayre: He'll be fine, and he makes for one of the best buying opportunities in dynasty leagues right now.

Thome (Houston): Speaking of new dynasty leagues, is it crazy to draft only players in their 20s or will I limit myself too much for the first 3-4 years?

Bret Sayre: I've seen all kinds of approaches to a new dynasty draft, but the worst thing you can do is to go in with a set plan and stick to it regardless of what's happening around you. If the kids are all going crazy early, draft a winner now. If the win-now guys are all going crazy early, draft the kids and try to build a powerhouse. Otherwise, just grab the value that comes to you.

Jessica (Arlington): In 2018 Jurickson Profar starts 152 games at second base, what will his stat line be?

Bret Sayre: .279/.331/.429

Jurickson Profar (next door): Have you given up on me?

Bret Sayre: I would never.

Stan (San Francisco): I own Kopech in a keeper league. Is his trade value ay its peak now? What kind of return should I expect?

Bret Sayre: I think there's a pretty good chance his value is at its peak right now. If you can turn him into a fringe top-100 player by being the centerpiece of a deal, I'd be all about that.

Blair (Winnipeg): Career: Groome vs. Anderson Espinoza. Who ya got??

Bret Sayre: Groome

RotoLando (Cloud City Bar & Grill): Surprising many experts, Andrew Susac is going to be a better fantasy catcher than ____ _______?

Bret Sayre: JT Realmuto

ssimon (Pelham, N.Y.): Bret, would you please reassure us that Player Forecast Manager will be updated for the 2017 season? When can we expect that to happen? Thanks. sds

Bret Sayre: I most certainly can. PECOTA 2017 time is drawing near...

Tom (San Francisco): Do you see the A's using Frankie Montas in the rotation or bullpen at the major league level? Where would you put him?

Bret Sayre: Reliever all the way for me. Think the A's use him that way as well.

mattstupp (NYC): I'm trying to choose 3 of these guys to keep in my OBP Keeper League: Addison Russell, Jackie Bradley (his CF eligibility makes him more valuable in my league), Hanley Ramirez, Gerrit Cole, Alex Reyes, Danny Salazar. Any suggestions?

Bret Sayre: Russell, Hanley and Reyes (by a nose over Cole).

Blackbird (The Forest): End of a slow bidding free agency period need 2 pitchers to fill out my rotation. Gsellman, Wacha, Pineda, Harvey, Wainwright, Liriano, Zimmerman...

Bret Sayre: Harvey and Gsellman

Dan (Raleigh): I have Joey Gallo in a dynasty league. What should I do with him?

Bret Sayre: Be patient. Dingers await.

Jared (San Pedro, CA): Hearing a lot of buzz about Royce Lewis as a possible 1.1 candidate. Are you buying in?

Bret Sayre: There are a ton of arms in the upcoming draft class, but there's definitely a chance Lewis is the most interesting bat on the prep side. Probably not a 1.1 guy, but then again, neither was Mickey Moniak. The draft is weird, man, and it's a long ways away.

ColeWhittier (Pasadena, CA): My Dodger-fan friend is in need of a serious dose of math. What odds would you give Jose De Leon on being a #1, a #2, a mid-rotation guy and flaming out or becoming a reliever?

Bret Sayre: #1 - 1%. #2 - 7%. Mid rotation starter - 48%. Reliever - 27%. Flame out - 17%

RotoJunkie (Niagara Falls, ON): Aaron Alther had deep sleeper potential in 2016. Have you ever been a fan?

Bret Sayre: Not really - it's a fourth OF profile and the Phillies have better guys coming.

Braves' rotation (Atlanta): Which arm do you like best of all the Braves' studly farm team rotations?

Bret Sayre: I like Newcomb the best, but I'm not super high on any of them, to be honest.

Nerd (nerdville): When is the top 100 dynasty prospect list showing its beautiful face?

Bret Sayre: Second half of February

jimbo (Iowa): I'm in a 16 team, keep 15 forever league. How do I evaluate a trade in which I'd be giving up 2 keepers to acquire an upgrade and it would allow me to keep my 16th ranked player? Should I consider my own player as part of the return and be willing to take a discount?

Bret Sayre: Absolulely, you have to.

troykocur (Grand Coulee, Saskatchewan, Canada): Hey Brett, is Rowdy Tellez the future starting 1b for the Bluejays? If so, does he get a cup of coffee in the majors this year? What do you think his numbers will look like as a starting 1b? Also what do you think of CWS catching prospect Zach Collins? Will he be their starting backstop sooner than later, and also what do you think he can do with his bat(numbers wise) thanks for taking the time to answer these questions.

Bret Sayre: Yes he is, but I don't think he'll be there this year. Collins should at least get a shot to see if he can catch in Chicago at some point in 2018. I like Collins' bat better between the two.

Matt (Ann Arbor): Hey Bret. Where would AJ Reed land if he was eligible for your dynasty prospects top 50?

Bret Sayre: He wouldn't.

Fan (Fandom): When does the DynastyGuru 500 get released?

Bret Sayre: Second half of February

Clint (Houston TX): Hey Bret, thanks for doing this. Is it safe to drop Daz Cameron in a 12-team dynasty with roughly 200 minor leaguers?

Bret Sayre: It's defensible - you want a little more upside out of your last players in a 12-teamer.

Alex (Mississippi): Hey man, tell me a reason other than playing time Austin Barnes can't put up realmuto numbers.

Bret Sayre: Because he's two years older than Realmuto and has a career .545 OPS in the majors. Wait, that was two reasons.

Blake (Med Hat): What is your opinion of Sandy Alcantara? Starter? Reliever?

Bret Sayre: Could be a pretty dynamic starter, but still a ways away.

Rick (TX): Are any of the recent MLB or J2 signings projectable to a 65/70 hit tool? Doesn't seem like there are any solid chances to get there (although someone might with growth)

Bret Sayre: That's a pretty bold projection on an international signing. If I gave it to anyone, it's probably Luis Almanzar, but I wouldn't.

Jeff (Chagrin Falls): Gary Sanchez or Salvador Perez in 2017? 2018 and beyond?

Bret Sayre: Sanchez for all of the above.

Musial6 (Stl ): Do you see Franklin Barreto as a solid if unspectacular super utility guy, sort of a speedy Zobrist with less obp? 30% chance he sticks at ss?

Bret Sayre: I think that's selling him short. Think he'll hit enough to play everyday somewhere, even if he's not so great defensively.

DS (Washington): What are your long term thoughts on Jose Peraza? Does the BA/speed combo give him near-elite upside or do you see more of a 2016 Josh Harrison type?

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't use elite and Peraza in the same sentence unless it's a sentence explaining why I wouldn't use those two words in the same sentence. He could put up similar numbers to Harrison but with a few more steals.

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Standard 5x5 NL-only keeper league, each team is allowed to keep 8 with salary escalators (+$2 in year two, +$4 in year three, +8 in year four, etc.) Is either Andrew Susac or Austin Barnes worth picking up for $1 as a 2nd catcher?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely on Susac.

Baseballdeity (Parts Unknown): Strasburg in Dynasty - are you holding or attempting to trade?

Bret Sayre: Don't trade away Strasburg at anything other than a time when he's showing he's fully healthy.

Ben (ATL): Does Dansby Swanson have any 20-20 seasons in his future? Similar offensive profile to Lindor?

Bret Sayre: I don't think he's got the power to hit 20 bombs, but I think 15-15 with a whole lot of bating average help is reasonable.

Jojo (SD): Outlook on a couple disappointing ss prospects for dynasty - JP Crawford and Javier Guerra? Are we overrating JPC for fantasy because of his advanced approach and defensive value? Isn't there a real chance he's a .275/10/15 hitter? Hold Guerra for another year in a 16-team or was '15 just an aberration and he's really not good? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: Don't do Crawford like that. I think he's being underrated for fantasy right now. Prospect fatigue is a real thing. Guerra isn't particularly interesting though.

RotoLando (Cloud City Bar & Grill): Can I borrow your truck? I got a thing I have to go do.

Bret Sayre: The last time you borrowed it you smashed a bag of Cheetos between the seats and my party mix went missing. Gonna have to think about this one.

Jape82 (Ottawa, Canada): Is there any chance that Boston fast-tracks Devers into a late-2017 call-up as a 20 year old? Does he have a shot at developing into a top 5 fantasy 3B at his peak or is that way too optimistic?

Bret Sayre: Very little chance. That's awfully optimistic. That said, high-end talents do find ways to do surprising things.

Cubbie Bear (CHI-TOWN): Yadier Alvarez has not been rated very high by anyone, possibly because of his age & limited performance. This guy was paid enormous money to sign relative to what other top prospects were signing for. Give us some projection and possible comps on the upside. Thanks.

Bret Sayre: Uhh, we just ranked him as the top prospect in one of the strongest farm systems in baseball. He could be a borderline SP1.

tomhauck (NJ): Bradley Zimmer. ETA? Are the Grady Sizemore references fair?

Bret Sayre: Sizemore had already racked up 15 WARP by the time he was Zimmer's age. So, no, those comps aren't fair.

Catchers R Us (Home plate): Who is the best hitting catcher prospect in the minors? Zach Collins?

Bret Sayre: Yep, it's Collins for me.

SPG (LA): Why is Amir Garrett not getting more love in dynasty circles? Seems like he's easily one of the Top 5 SP Prospects likely to contribute this season.

Bret Sayre: He might be one of the guys most likely to contribute this year, but his long-term ceiling just isn't as interesting as once thought.

ThePitchClock (Left Field Scoreboard): Do we see Manuel Margot in MLB? 1. Start of Season 2. Around 20 days into season 3. After super 2 deadline

Bret Sayre: Option #2

ryangong (Vancouver BC): Feelings on Eric Thames vs Tommy Joseph?

Bret Sayre: Both solid values in really nice home parks. I think I'd lean Thames very slightly, but it's close.

hansford (mansfield, texas): Need help with a dynasty league cut. Do I cut mike clevinger, forrest wall, Luis Uriah or alex meyer?

Bret Sayre: Meyer is just not rosterable at this point unless it's a super deep league.

darthack2661 (Draft Central): Is my fantasy love of Dansby Swanson and his 80 grade hair unfounded? I can almost envision a top of the order monster if I squint hard enough

Bret Sayre: I think monster is overstating the case, but he's one of the best fantasy prospects in baseball for a reason.

charbar16 (Deland, Florida ): What would you put Honeywells ceiling at and do you think that he ends up debuting this year?

Bret Sayre: Honeywell could be a solid SP2 and I think the Rays are going to do whatever they can to keep him in the minors this entire season. And he still might force their hand.

Beaux (New Orleans): Is Mitch Keller the best arm in the Minors with the biggest upside (outside of Reyes and Glasnow)?

Bret Sayre: No, but he's a good prospect.

Captain America (America, duh): Is Neftali Feliz the Brewers closer this year?

Bret Sayre: Yea, I think so.

pAT (PATIENCE): Whats the key to patience in a Dynasty league? Keeper league Eduardo Rod or Schimpf for the fun of it?

Bret Sayre: The key to patience in a dynasty league is playing in more than one. Having multiple teams can keep you from overthinking or overacting. And I'd take E-Rod there.

Tim (Colorado): How is a guy (Dansby Swanson) who "may" go 15-15 one of the best fantasy prospects in baseball? Seems those numbers are kinda blah for fantasy.

Bret Sayre: Ask Francisco Lindor, who was an easy top-10 shortstop and top-30 overall hitter without either 20 homers or steals last year.

sbnbaseball (NYC ): Thoughts on Wil Myers after his breakout season. Can we put him down for another 20-20 season.

Bret Sayre: The fear of injury will always keep it written in pencil rather than pen, but yea, I think he gets to 20-20 again.

WickedCurve26 (B-More): How high would you take Gsellman if he were eligible in a new player rookie draft? Before or after Groome?

Bret Sayre: I'd take Gsellman over Groome, but it's very close.

Terry (Lamar - TX): Does Jorge Ona get more love once people actually see his skills?

Bret Sayre: It's tricky, as I think he'll probably struggle at the outset, creating a potential buying opportunity. That said, I think his offensive skills are real and could be a nice power bat in time.

Bret Sayre: And with that, it's time to call it an evening. Gotta go put the finishing touches on the top 50 dynasty league first basemen. How many of them will be CJ Cron? Stay tuned tomorrow at Baseball Prospectus! Thanks for all the questions - see you next time.