Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bryan Grosnick

Chat: Bryan Grosnick

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday December 22, 2016 1:00 PM ET chat session with Bryan Grosnick.

Bryan is our lead Transaction Analysis writer and Managing Editor at BP Mets.

Bryan Grosnick: Hey there, everyone. Sorry for the delay, but I'm here and ready to chat about the hot stove!

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): If the Cardinals decided to upgrade at 3B, who would be reasonably available?

Bryan Grosnick: This is a good question. If we're talking about "upgrade" as in over Jhonny Peralta–who had a couple of performance issues last year, and really isn't optimized as a 3B–you probably don't want to look on the FA market. I mean, Trevor Plouffe is out there and might come cheaply, but I bet you're looking for a more exciting answer. I think the Cards could make a compelling trade offer for Todd Frazier, who looks good in red. Otherwise, I'm not sure. Maybe it's worth taking a flyer on the recently-released Richie Shaffer? The best bet might be going after someone to handle 1B, and keeping Carpenter at third.

Larry (NY): Hate to be that guy with trade proposals, but can't help but think that this one really makes too much sense: 3 Way trade between Mets, White Sox and Rockies Mets get Jose Abreu Rockies get Lucas Duda White Sox get Rockies prospect (Forrest Wall-ish caliber), Dom Smith and Chris Flexen/Andrew Church

Bryan Grosnick: So, I'm out here as the high guy on Lucas Duda, so here's my take on that: nah. Abreu's very good, but he's not a superstar, and I'm not sure the Mets want to pay as much as they might to upgrade from Duda to Abreu. On the Rockies' side, I don't think they'd want to bail on a prospect at that level for one year of Duda, but he'd be very fun to watch out there. This isn't nearly as crazy as most three-team trade scenarios ... but it still seems unlikely.

Terry (Los Angelos): Hey man, can you please rank: Jose Berrios, Jose De Leon, Robert Gsellman, Jake Thompson

Bryan Grosnick: Not a prospect or fantasy guy, but I'll take a crack. If we're talking about *next year*, I'll take Gsellman, Berrios, De Leon, then Thompson.

Caris (Georgetown ): Who's the next Mets pictcher to pull a Degrom aka pull a Gselmman

Bryan Grosnick: Geez, greedy much? If we're talking about turning from a low-likelihood prospect to a legit MLB starter, maybe we just wait on Anthony Kay?

Prison Mike (Scranton): % Chance a Met SP finishes in the top 2 of NL Cy Young voting next year

Bryan Grosnick: If we're talking Top 2 in a world where Clayton Kershaw exists, then I'd go with something like 20 percent. There's a LOT of variance in Cy Young voting. (If you wanted to eliminate Noah Syndergaard from the discussion, then I'd drop the number down to like three percent.)

Lenny (OH): What do you make of these Mets-Reds rumors? What's a trade around Bruce for Hamilton that makes sense for both teams? Apparently Mets were willing to offer Bruce and PJ Conlon for Hamilton but the Reds wanted Bruce and Nimmo/Cecchini

Bryan Grosnick: I gotta be real with you ... it seems really strange that the Reds would cut ties with Bruce and then go back and trade for him again. So in general, I think there's nothing to the rumors of a Bruce-for-Hamilton trade. Could the Mets do something to acquire Hamilton? Maybe. He'd be fun to watch in Citi Field. But I'd assume the Reds would want to talk Conforto, or at least something more than a year of Bruce plus some prospects.

(P.S. If the Reds wanted Hamilton for Bruce and one of Nimmo or Cecchini, the Mets should do that in a heartbeat. Maybe even if it's for both, honestly.)

Herman (Stlucie): According to Dom Smith's trainer, Dom Smith is down from 258 to 235 with added muscle mass. What do you make of this as what should this mean for Dom going forward?

Bryan Grosnick: Anything that improves his strength and athleticism is fantastic, and I'd love to see how it works in practice. But given that I'm not a scout, I'd want to actually see changes on the field before I get excited over anything. We're all in the best shape of our lives before April.

Van (Canada): How valuable would a player be with dynamite defence, and who walks ~40% of the time, but never hits? How high would his OBP have to get from walks alone to be a useful contributor?

Bryan Grosnick: This is a fun one, and I think Ben and Sam addressed this question on one of the hundreds of episodes of Effectively Wild. It depends on where he provides the dynamite defense. Is it at catcher, where he's a Jose Molina-quality framer? Is it at shortstop a la Andrelton Simmons, or in CF like Kevin Kiermaier?

If we establish the baseline as a two-win defender with a .400 OBP, he'd probably be *very* valuable, despite his lack of hits. A .000/.400/.000 line is a lot better than the .400 OPS looks, and only seven players with over 300 PA had a .400 OBP last year. I'd look at this kind of player as worth 5 wins as a catcher, closer to 4 as a shortstop, and 3.5 as a centerfielder/3B/2B. He'd be pretty good.

Brad (Minneapolis): Do you see the Cubs doing much else to improve themselves this winter? Perhaps it's the pre-World Series Cubs fan in me, but it feels like they need to make one more move to get back in the postseason next year.

Bryan Grosnick: They probably just need to not step on a landmine to get back in the postseason–the team is devastating. They are shallower than last season, except maybe in the bullpen. I think something fun could be brewing with Candelario coming in to get reps at third and Bryant slumming in the OF a little–the best thing a team can always do is take a flyer on another starting pitcher with upside. Tyson Ross, of course, is the dude. (I'm not confident he'll be good, but he's the right combination of upside and risk for them.) And I'd look for them to make another big move at the deadline, after the season happens.

PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): Do you think that the White Sox, Blue Jays, & Pirates could find a 3 team deal that would send McCutcheon to the Jays, Quintana to the Pirates, and prospects to the White Sox? (I ask as I think the Jays want McCutcheon, but don't really have what the Pirates would want in return)

Bryan Grosnick: So, I think that Quintana is obviously the highest-value guy in the deal right now ... which is bananas to think about from a start-of-2016 point of view. So the Pirates toss a guy to the Sox such as ... Taillon, maybe? The Jays would certainly have to send Reid-Foley as well as either Alford and/or Guerrero to the White Sox ... so it probably comes down to who the Sox' scouts like, and whether or not they'd want someone who is closer to the bigs or further away.

If I'm the Sox, I go for a premium prospect in the mold of a Giolito or Moncada ... a true Top 10 guy ... if I'm dealing Quintana. I don't play around with quantity over quality.

nschaef (Office): On opening day Jose Quintana is playing for [blank] and he was traded for [blank].

Bryan Grosnick: On Opening Day Jose Quintana is playing for the White Sox and he was traded for no one.

...

On August 1, Jose Quintana is playing for the Astros and he was traded for Francis Martes and other pieces.

JustinPerline (NY): If you had to turn the Angels into a contender in this offseason, how would you do it? No care in the world about future prospects but realistic spending limits. As long as you can win in 2017, that's all that matters.

Bryan Grosnick: Hey Justin. They're actually not as far away as one might imagine. Part One: DON'T TRADE TROUT. Part Two: Sign Tyson Ross, because your entire rotation is about crossing your fingers anyway. Then I sign Chase Utley for the infield. Deal Jahmai Jones and Taylor Ward for a starting pitcher. Maybe I trade Cam Bedrosian to a team that wants a cheap closer ... for another starting pitcher and worry about the bullpen in July.

(The answer is more/better starting pitching.)

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Which prospect makes the biggest impact in the majors this year?

Bryan Grosnick: So ... Moncada is the easiest answer, but I think when you factor in team context, my money's on Andrew Benintendi. I think he's a three-win guy next year, plus the Red Sox are going to be really important as far as the AL landscape goes.

TJ (Riviera): Could TJ Rivera net a decent bullpen arm or top 150 prospect?

Bryan Grosnick: I wish.

Justinpain928 (S Elgin, Illinois): Who is the better dynasty stash? Y Alvarez, Espinosa or Kopech

Bryan Grosnick: If it were me, I'd bet on Kopech of the bunch. His velocity is amazing.

mattstupp (NYC): If you're the Orioles, would you rather sign Trumbo for 3 years/$51 million or trade Mychal Givens for Jay Bruce?

Bryan Grosnick: This is ... not a great pair of options. I'd rather trade Givens for Bruce, because I think signing Trumbo to that deal is too much, even with inflation stuff. The bullpen's awful good without Givens. If the team has $50 million to spend, they might be better served going after Chris Carter, and being very happy about the leftover cash. (Also, I love this trade for the Mets, which makes me imagine that it's not so good for the O's.)

Gerog (Az ): How much sense does a Conforto for Lamb swap make?

Bryan Grosnick: Less than it did in a pre-Jose Reyes world. Amed Rosario is coming, and that means that Asdrubal Cabrera could see a move to third even before mid-season. I'm a big Jake Lamb guy, but Conforto still has the potential advantage. If we started talking about throwing in a really good relief pitcher, maybe things get more interesting.

Jeff (Brooklyn): If the Cubs deal Jeimer Candelario straight up for a post hype pitcher or a guy that should start off in AAA anyway, could you throw a name or two out there that seems fairly equal, value-wise?

Bryan Grosnick: This is kind of an interesting question. The fit I like best is Tyler Skaggs of the Angels. Yes, I'm weird.

Farrah (Jersey): What do you think will end up happening with the Mets crowded OF situation? Orioles cave and trade Brach for Bruce? Mets cave and trade Granderson for Brach? Something else?

Bryan Grosnick: Either of these deals would actually probably be pretty good for the Mets, in my opinion. (And I'm very pro-Granderson because he's a great guy.) But yeah, I'll take the field over either of those options. My best guess is that the Mets end up dealing Jay Bruce in a move that looks a lot like the Clay-Buchholz-for-a-nothing-prospect trade. Those two situations are pretty similar in my eyes.

Jonah (Redwood): Who else do the ChiSox move now? Frazier? Quintana? Lawrie? I was thinking Abreu would be moved, but with Moncada added, they might want to keep him aound?

Bryan Grosnick: Frazier, for absolutely sure. He's a short-term piece, and since I think Moncada's a third baseman (again, not a scout!), he's blocking someone. Quintana I hold until I get a Sale/Eaton offer. And Laurie I trade if I can get something of worth back. Abreu I'd move in the right deal, but I wouldn't rush. Rushing trades tends to leave you with a lesser return. Imagine if the Dodgers are contending and Adrian Gonzalez has a severe injury, or the Astros are close but not close enough in July. Squeeze the extra leverage when you can.

Renfroe (SNJ): How many years until Amed Rosario is the best position player on the Mets?

Bryan Grosnick: By BP's WARP, I'll go with 2019. That's very optimistic on Rosario, and it also assumes the Mets don't sign Manny Machado to a godfather contract. (They won't.) Speaking of which ...

Alex (B-More): What are the chances the Orioles actually re-sign Manny Machado before he hits free agency, and do so while still being able to roster a competitive team?

Bryan Grosnick: Nope! I bet Machado hits the open market and takes all the money. (Well, all the money that Bryce Harper doesn't get.) Assuming that the Orioles WERE able to pay top dollar and retain Machado, yes, I do believe they can still roster a competitive team. They still need to figure out how to do something else with their pitching staff, though.

bobw1966 (Ft. Lauderdale): Once Dominic Smith reaches his prime, which current player does he most resemble. Thanks.

Bryan Grosnick: Logan Morrison. Don't @ me.

(I hope he's better than that.)

AJ (Queens): WHo has the better career: Swanson, Rosario, or Crawford?

Bryan Grosnick: I'd still bet on the raw tools of J.P. Crawford. (Still not a scout!) Rosario could be the worst of the three and still be pretty good ... I've always imagined him as more of an Alcides Escobar type, but if he has more power, then great.

George (NYC): % Chance that Josh Smoker and/or Hansel Robles turns into an impact, late inning reliever?

Bryan Grosnick: For Smoker, 30 percent. For Robles, 15 percent.

Carson (S Jersey): How would you rank the big 4 SS prospects in the NL East? (Albies, Swanson, Crawford, Rosario)

Bryan Grosnick: For the long term, Crawford > Swanson > Rosario > > Albies.

Justinpain928 (S Elgin, Illinois): Jimenez, Robles, Devers, Rodgers. Please rank MLB careers.

Bryan Grosnick: Despite not being a scout, I do love to engage in baseless speculation! SO:

Robles > Jimenez > Rodgers > Devers

Xavier (Brooklyn): Am I the only one who thinks Brandon Nimmo is more than a 4h OF? Great makeup and tools for more production

Bryan Grosnick: I mean, you're certainly not the only one, but I'm not with you. Makeup is fabulous, but a lot of fourth and fifth outfielders have it. And the tools seem good, but they're not translating yet. I'm happy with him as a fourth OF! (Or in the Mets' case, a sixth OF!)

Andy (Lexington): Has Alex Bregman's upside been overrated a bit? Do we know he has plus power, or was he just schooling less polished minor leaguers?

Bryan Grosnick: He looked pretty good once he got his feet under him in the majors. I feel like the power is still an open issue, but I wouldn't put a few three-or-four win seasons past him, and that's a very fine ballplayer. (Also, did you listen to him on the Ringer MLB Show? Confidence for DAYS.)

Wes (Harlem): How many future SPs are in the Mets system? Szapucki, Dunn and Molina? Maybe Flexen and Kay?

Bryan Grosnick: Based on what we've seen in the past several seasons, one billion. Everyone is a future No. 3 starter.

(In all seriousness, I knock one of the Dunn / Szap / Molina group out due to injury or attrition and put another in the bullpen. One could be a really nice starter. Then I imagine one of Flexen and Kay makes it as a No. 4 or No. 5.)

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Washington seems to be the likely landing spot for Greg Holland. What other teams would you put as the top-3 (or 5) likeliest landing spots for Holland?

Bryan Grosnick: So, I'd imagine it would be a team with a good medical staff history, some depth to weather the blow if he doesn't pan out, a little bit of cash, and at least a chance to be over .500. So ... I'll go with St. Louis, Washington, Boston, Los Angeles Dodgers, and maybe someone like Detroit.

Oh! Can I digress for a minute? What the heck is going on in Detroit? Are they going to sell or not? I have a feeling something weird / big is coming, but I'm running out of patience.

Hermes (NYC): Mets seem to have a couple prospects with some serious helium velocity, specifically Thomas Szapucki, Andres Gimenez and Desmond Lindsay. What do you make of these guys and which have the best chance of being a top 50 prospect by midseason?

Bryan Grosnick: If you're talking about the BP Top 50, I'd certainly guess Szap. Jeff and Jarrett love that guy, and if he maintains the velo to start 2017, people are going to lose their minds.

Bryan Grosnick: And that will do it for me today. Thank you all for joining and submitting a lion's share of fantasy and prospect questions that I was completely underqualified to answer. Check out all the Transaction Analysis here at BP, and have a wonderful holiday of your choosing!