Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday August 05, 2016 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.

Jeff is a senior member of our prospect team, and podcast host of For All You Kids Out There. Ask him about 17-year-olds. Ask him about Bartolo.

Jeffrey Paternostro: There are questions about both 17-year-olds and Bartolo in the very full queue, so I guess it is time to chat.

Ernst (NY): Is a .200 iso for 16 year old (maybe now 17) Andres Giminez as absurd as it seems? What does that really mean? Could he somehow have plus power, even though he's a small guy? Is this a guy we will see on top prospect lists soon or is he too young?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Vicente Lupo mashed in the DSL a few years back and now he is an A-ball DH. Now, Gimenez is a much better prospect than Lupo, and a year younger at the level, but I wouldn't read much into the numbers. However, feel free to read into the glowing reports on him. And there are a lot of them. Could he sneak onto the Mets top 10? Sure. All depends on how you want to weight risk.

Barca (Queens): Better major league starter in 2017 -- Robert Gsellman or Bartolo Colon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I like Gsellman, but he's a four unless the slider takes another step forward and he consolidates some of the velocity spike. Bart has managed to avoid the blow-up starts this year and his ability to log 200 innings as a #4 might be more useful to a 2017 rotation with question marks in Harvey and Wheeler.

Paul (Rhode Island): Hey Jeff, love your work. Any chance the Mets start Szapucki in PSL next yr and do you think they have him go to the AFL this offseason?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, let's start rolling through the Szapucki questions, because there's a lot of them/

They skipped Marcos Molina over the Sally, and Szapucki has been as dominant in theNYPL as Molina was as a 20-year-old. He's not quite as polished as Molina at the same level, so there is an argument for giving him a half season in Columbia. It may simply come down to how he looks in Spring next year, those decisions often do.

Mets generally use the AFL as a way to get pitchers extra innings if they've missed time, or to start converting them to the pen. Szapucki doesn't fit either category. Someone like Gsellman or Church is more likely.

Craig (Ooh Ah): Tell me about Thomas Szapucki. Next big Mets pitching prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, now the actual report. Jarrett Seidler covered most of this is the Ten Pack earlier this week, but the cliff notes: Big fastball, touched 97 early and was 93-95 for most of the start, can cut or run. Bores 95 on the hands of righties. Curve and change are rough, but flashed late in the start. You could go a future 6/5 if you really liked it (I really liked it). The mechanics are a bit unorthodox, and there is a lot of effort in the stretch, but the arm action itself is fine and the velocity is easy. Reminded Jarrett of Niese in the delivery, I saw some Ollie there as well (Mets fans hate that comp, but Perez was a monster when he first came up) Szapucki's raw, but the upside here is huge. He'll make the 101, and I suspect that's not the only national list he'll be on.

Danny (Chi Town): NEXT BIG prospect nobody is talking about?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Well, it's Szapucki, though he is going to get talked about more now that he is in Brooklyn, where more people can actually see him. (I love Kingsport, but I am one of the few loons willing to make that drive every year). He won't quite have Anderson Espinoza's helium, but it is that kind of pop-up guy.

Dan (LA): Where would Lourdes Gourriel Jr Rank in the prospect rankings if eligible?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There's some fluidity here. We don't even know what position he'll play (which may depends on the preferences of who he signs for). I suppose Moncada would be the closest comp here, and he debuted in our top ten. Moncada was also a bit younger, had *some* A-ball experience, and is more of a physical specimen than Gourriel (have we settled on a spelling). Given how shallow the talent pool is in the minors right now, I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up in a top 25. But that is really just spitballing.

Tommy (NYC): What kind of Fantasy player can Mickey Moniak be? How much potential does he have?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Moniak seems like the type of profile that will be better in actual baseball than fantasy baseball, as a large part of his value as a prospect is his ability to stick in centerfield. He can run, and scouts and evaluators like the hit tool at least, so maybe a lazy fantasy comp here is something like Manuel Margot.

cracker73 (Florida ): Phil's prospects Cozens and Hoskins are absolutely destroying the Eastern League and yet they haven't made any mid-season top prospect lists that I've seen. Why do they get so little respect? Do scouts think that their stats are simply a product of the ball park that they play in?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will admit to being overly biased by a well-out-of-date look at Cozens, and I've been told he looks much better at the plate nowadays, he is also a corner outfielder with remarkably pedestrian numbers outside of the bandbox in Reading and swing-and-miss issues everywhere. Hoskins I like a bit more, as I think the hit tool utility is better, although he is limited to first, which carries its own problems.

Andrew Pullin is slugging over .600 right now. Andrew Knapp hit 11 home runs in 250 PA last season.

This is a known issue, as they say.

Harold (Queens): Would you have Amed as a top 10 global guy now? What would you say his OFP is?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yes. 70.

Rachel (Brookyln): Hey Jeff, over the last week, I've watched both Harol and Merandy Gonzalez pitch for Brookyln cyclones. They've both been incredibly effective but in seemingly different ways. Are these guys legit prospects? How good can they be in the bigs? Whose skill set do you think will transfer better to majors?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I love the Gonzalii. You are right about getting it done in different ways, and there are many ways to shove in the Penn League. Harol is all polish and pitch mix, he's topped out at 91 for me, and most scouts I've talked to have him there as well, though you will hear reports of him popping a bit higher in starts occasionally. He has a decent cutter/slider and two different looks to his change. NYPL hitters won't be able to deal with that (and haven't). Merandy is the better prospect with better stuff. The fastball can get up to 97, and the four-seam sits 93-95. The curve is crude, but has good shape, and he can miss bats or get weak contact even with the command of the curve or the fastball isn't there. Merandy has the more obvious path to the majors as a two pitch reliever, and he reminds me a bit of Hansel Robles. Harol is fun to watch pitch, but I don't know what that profile looks like in Double-A, or if his frame/stuff holds up when he has to throw 120 in full-season next year. There's a reason I call him Pedrocito. And it isn't just the hair and the #45.

We call everyone in the minors "prospects" nowadays, but for context, Merandy would be around 15 or so on a Mets team list, Harol in the 20s.

Jay (Texas): Joey Gallo or Joc Pederson for 2017 and beyond? Why?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Joc has cut his Ks to a perfectly reasonable level given his pop, and can play a solid CF. That gives him two very big legs up over Gallo, who I totally get the appeal of, but would scare the crap out of me as a Fantasy or real-life GM.

Tim (Baltimore): What type of pitcher is Kevin Gausman a year from now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he takes another small step forward, tightens the command up a bit more, and looks like a solid #3 starter.

Adamah (Milburn): Peter Alonso having great year so far for Brooklyn. In hindsight, do you think MLB teams wish they had taken him earlier in 2nd round before the Mets, after seeing his power seemingly translate well to wood bats? Could he make an AJ Reed esque ascension up prospect lists?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Alonso is seeing worse pitching in Brooklyn than he saw in the SEC, so I don't know how much you really want to read into the numbers. The raw power is legit, but the swing is...problematic. That is the kind of thing that can change a lot once professional hitting instructors get you for a Summer and Spring (they tweaked Conforto a lot his first Summer, for example) but as it is, Alonso has too many moving parts to make me confident teams missed something yet.

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): In standard NL-only fantasy league with 8 keepers per team, would you drop Austin Meadows or J.P. Crawford to make room for Dylan Cozens?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't play fantasy nowadays, so I can't even say "only if you are in my league."

TC (Freehold): Does Desmond Lindsay have star potential? Seems to have all the tools with a great approach.

Jeffrey Paternostro: "Star" is a bit strong for me, and I like Lindsay a lot. The two years of hamstring problems would worry me, as he is another guy whose stock benefits from being able to stick in CF (a position, unlike Moniak, he didn't play in high school). But yeah, the tools are fun, and outside of physically being able to actually run, everything still looked good at the plate when I saw him recently. I think the potential here is more solid regular in CF though. But that is good!

John (NJ): It feels like you did more analysis of Mets minor leaguers in your old podcast. I really enjoyed that and was wondering if you might go back to doing more of that in For All You Kids? From the way you discuss things now, it seems like you got a lot of dumb twitter comments when you weren't super high on guys. I hope that's not why you stopped doing it. The silent majority loved your work!

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett won't stop talking about Brock Lesnar in the third half, something has to go.

The real answer is it is easier to talk about prospects when the major league team is boring and non-competitive, and the Mets are...well there's stuff to talk about. Once the season winds down, I imagine the prospect side will re-assert itself, as that is what Jarrett and I mostly write about.

Also for the record, I can't overemphasize how little I care about #MetsTwitter's views on my reports.

Mike (MN): #1 Prospect in 2018, 2019, 2020?

Jeffrey Paternostro: For entertainment purposes only

18: Victor Robles
19: Brendan Rodgers
20: Kevin Maitan

Angel Cuan (27/M/Panama): Most likely another team signing me?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Funnily enough, I was clearing out a backlog of notebooks and getting them digitized, and a 2014 Angel Cuan look popped up. I think I got Tyler Pill and Alex Panteliodis in that series too, and my 10th through 12th looks at Kevin Plawecki or something. Cuan got way more out of his stuff and body than he should have, and now that I think about it, he isn't the worst comp for Harol Gonzalez (other than the handedness, and Harol's raw stuff is better). Double-A is tough for these profiles.

SK (MA): How would you personally rank the recent top 10 draftees/int'l signings?

Jeffrey Paternostro: There is so much manipulation with the pools now, the top ten picks aren't always the top ten talents. Guys like Groome and Rutherford would make a 101 while Cal Quantrill probably won't. The IFAs are even trickier. What do you do with Kevin Maitan for example? Or the Padres Cuban trio? Is Maitan a better prospect than whoever the 101st best stateside guy is (oh let's say Tyler Wade)? Most would say yes, I don't know that I have enough info to agree.

dave (queens): How hard is it to scout college guys in Brooklyn? You have said in the past that guys like Conforto and Plawecki were probably just tired by the time they got there and now you've said Dunn looked like he was almost doubg a rehab session - is it fair to actually base anything on Dunn's outings enough to say whether you prefer a guy like Szapucki to him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if 'hard' is the right word. You write what you see, and make allowances for what you know. I am going to try and get another look at Dunn and Szapucki, but I don't know that another look turns a light bulb on. I tend to not consider draft pedigree as long as some of my peers. But we have college reports on Dunn that are better than what I saw on Coney. That matters in the calculus. I don't know that college Dunn gets me past Szapucki though, I just think there is more upside in Puck's arm. (Does Puck work? I am going to be typing his name a lot I have a feeling, so should come up with something shorter. By standard clubhouse nicknaming convention, I guess it would be T-Puck?)

College guys get under-ranked both ways though. Even if they do hit and look good (like Alonso), they are just a college dude beating up on short-season.

The Mets could also make my life easier by actually sending these guys to a full-season level comparable to their ability, but Brooklyn must win.

Q-bert (Earth): 16 team 13 keeper points league with 5 minor league slots. Trade vetoed other day....Anthony rizzo for nomar mazara and yoan moncada. I was getting rizzo side and felt it was fair. Am I wrong?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Seems fine to me. But my fantasy judgments, like my fantasy advice, should be strictly non-binding.

Art (Manhattan): I was looking at TPGMets's list of Mets guys eligible for MiL FA this offseason and is there any shot that Domingo Tapia, Rainy Lara, or Mickey Jannis get rostered or are they all goners? Do any of them have a rabbi left in the org?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Rainy Lara should stick around so he can unseat Mark Cohoon for Mets minor league pitcher I have seen the most. They could also probably try him in the pen, since they didn't trade every A+/AA arm like they did last deadline. I saw Jannis in April. It's a knuckleballer. That's my report. /shruggie. No one liked Tapia more than me (and that was because I was way too high), but I don't think the org is treating him like an arm they are too worried about keeping around.

Corrine (Nyc): Met fan here. Love your work on amazinavenue. I read a lot about Nimmo having only 4th OF projections, but I really like what I've seen from him so far. Care to weigh in? Would love your opinion.

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's looked about how I expected, minus 25 points of batting average or so. They won't play him in CF for some reason, which says something (I liked him in center, also haven't seen him much there since his last two major lower body injuries). You can't really play him against lefties, and they have three LHH corner outfielders that will get PT ahead of him. Not a surprise he was offered in deals for both Lucroy and Bruce.

That said, I've liked his approach in the majors, a bit more aggression in hitter's counts, and he has gone the other way well. Still don't know that the profile gets past tweener/4th without that power projection actually projecting at some point.

Tim (NC): The Mets now seem to have quite a few intriguing pitching prospects in the lower minors. Off the top of your head, how would you rank Szapucki, Kay, Dunn, Flexen, Molina, Merandy and Church (and heck, you can throw in Wotell for whatever its worth too)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Szapucki, Dunn, (gap), Molina, Kay (you could flip these depending on how you feel about past elbow issues versus future elbow issues), Wotell, Flexen, Church, Merandy (the last four are tight enough and far enough down a team list that order is sort of irrelevant, and I may change my mind on it tomorrow)

Ricky (Umass ): Has Dom smith's 2016 changed your outlook on him at all? Personally I'm a big fan, think he can do .290/350/.460

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am a little surprised it took a full hour to get a Dom question. So I saw him in April and there was a bit more pull side raw in BP, and that jibes with reports I have gotten since then. We are talking like 55 raw though, and hey, if he taps into that given his hit tool, that plays. It's still an extreme opposite field approach though, so I do wonder if the power does play, the two weeks where he went off notwithstanding. The body is still a concern of course, and I think you can get him out with soft stuff away/hard stuff in. He could definitely put up that line, that's an everyday first baseman, but if he is only .280/.340/.440, you get James Loney. And he still has to get to that. I had him as likely 45 coming into the season, may get bumped to a 50 this offseason. That's a guy that will be in discussion for a spot at the back of the 101. But to tie it back in with an earlier topic, this isn't Rhys Hoskins pop at this level.

Nathan (California): What can Jays fans expect from Richard Urena? Is he a legit everyday shortstop in the big leagues? Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: I will table this until I see New Hampshire again, which suddenly has a much more interesting squad. Thanks Pittsburgh!

JR (DC): Worried about Anderson Espinoza's struggles?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nope.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=440

GoTribe06 (Lynchburg): Rank these pitchers for the ROS.. Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, Colin McHugh, and Drew Smyly

Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh man, do I have to.

Fine.

Moore (I assume Righetti waives his wand or whatever), Smyly, McHugh, Kennedy

Archie (NZ): Why have the mets not called up cecchini yet?! So frustrating! Kid seems like a 55 bat that can play a good SS. Players like that are so valuable I can't fathom why they're still playing Flores and Reynolds at SS

Jeffrey Paternostro: Mets only call up people in-season that have been in the clubhouse before unless there hand is absolutely forced. That said, I wouldn't be so confident Cecchini is a better defender at short than Reynolds.

Jimmer (Brooklyn): Who would you bet on being the Mets’ opening day 2B in 2017; Neil Walker, Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores, Gavin Cecchini, or the field? Who would you bet on it being by the end of 2017 (barring injury, LOL)? Are we in for the first big-time starting 2B competition on the Mets since the legendary Emaus-Turner-Murphy-Luis Hernandez free-for-all in 2011 or will they just go find another league-average 2B like Neil Walker (or the actual Neil Walker)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Now Cecchini could handle second, and I wouldn't be shocked if that is the plan with Reyes/Flores as a fallback position if he struggles. Walker's resurgence means he probably gets QO'd. He's a bubble guy for accepting, and it could play out much like Murph last offseason (so pencil in Walker for 2017 NL MVP)

Gorkys (LA): Yasiel Puig starting outfielder in 2017? What kind of numbers will he put up?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Someone will give him a shot. It likely won't be LA. I think he'll be better.

Indians Fan (Cleveland): What is the ceiling/floor of Mike Clevinger?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think much of what we wrote preseason still applies. Stuff is obvious, command/control is a problem. Cleveland has done well getting a lot out of these guys, so I wouldn't be shocked if he turns into a mid-rotation arm, if a frustrating ones at times. He can always fall back on Pantene commercials as a floor. That is quite the head of hair.

Jorge (Brooklyn): Other than the obvious cases (Szapucki and Rosario) who among Mets prospects has surprised you in a good way this yr?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I was remarking earlier in the season that there haven't really been any surprises. Szapucki's emergence has been one of course. And while I wouldn't read much into Gimenez's numbers as I said at the outset, good production beats bad production and the reports are glowing.

Dan (Oakland): Did any of the trades this deadline seem very overbalanced to you? I personally thought the Reds didn't get full value for Bruce, and the Dodgers gave up a little too much for Hill/Reddick, but obviously teams have way more info than the general baseball public

Jeffrey Paternostro: The main concerns from the baseball-writing public seems to be around the price of relievers, but I think we are just behind the curve on viewing leverage. Starters aren't going as deep, there's a ton of playoff games to grind through, and the ability to shorten games and play matchups is key. I imagine there is a bit of copycatting the Royals too. As for the trades you mentioned, the price for rental starters is always high, and the demand will always find a supply, even if it is Drew Pomeranz and Rich Hill. I have no idea what to make of the Bruce trade. He was replacement level in 14-15.

DynastyOnly (Pa): 1 spot left in a 40 man dynasty roster. 1 pitcher Ortiz, Toussaint, or Sheffield? Thanks

Jeffrey Paternostro: First names, people. I assume Luis Ortiz and Justus Sheffield, in which case, Ortiz.

Phil (Uconn Go Huskies): What do you think of the Bruce trade? Personally, I'm a fan as I really think Bruce is better now than Herrera will ever be. Also, I really like what I've seen from Nimmo. Great makeup (which should not be understated), big frame to add power, great eye and good foot speed and good fielder.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, I will try this again. In a vacuum the trade was fine for the Mets. They just don't view Herrera as a significant major league piece, and Bruce is good value for him. I would have said the same thing about Nimmo (although they like Nimmo a lot). We've been waiting for him to add power to that frame for five years now though, don't know if it is happening.

The problem is the Mets now have four LHH corner outfielders and an injured Juan Lagares, and Collins is not the guy to manage a roster in need of that much creativity.

Charlie (Maryland): Thoughts on Giolito these days? Young but hasn't looked as dominant as some young pitchers do - are the expectations on him too high?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The reports were a bit down even earlier this season. The Nats tweaked his delivery, that may still be having a bit of an effect. I am just cribbing from my co-host here, but unless Giolito can command the curve, the fastball isn't so special that major league hitters can't whack it. But yeah, he's young, and some time at Triple-A won't hurt.

Gregory (Connecticut): I know you sorta dealt with this on twitter a drop ago but how many Mets prospects do you think would be able to crack an Angels or Marlins top 5?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hmm, okay let's ballpark this. The fifth best prospect in the Marlins system is like...Stone Garrett? In the Angels...jeez, um...Victor Alcantara? How many guys do the Mets have better than those duds. Mets have some depth in 45 types so we could stretch well into the Top 20 I'd bet. Might be a fun deep dive this offseason.

Archer (Staten Island): Did you get any looks at Colby Woodmansee in Brooklyn? Is he maybe a dude?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I did. I don't think he's a shortstop long term, the athletic tools are a little short. Arm isn't amazing, but could handle third, and I think it's more a utility profile anyway. Woodmansee is another guy that isn't going to get challenged much by short-season pitching, but the swing is a little long for me, and he has struggled with the soft stuff at times. You got some intriguing reports on the power coming out of college, but I don't know if that is going to translate to wood bats for him.

Dan (Oakland): Of the current bottom-feeders, who do you see making the playoffs next with a farm system assist, and when?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If the Phillies still count, I think it is them. A lot of close-to-ready talent, ownership with money to spend soon, and a young pitching core already in the majors. Honestly, they could get into the conversation with an aggressive offseason, but 2018 seems more likely. Of the "tanking" teams, I like what the Brewers have done, but that division isn't getting easier in the near-term.

John (NJ): Does it seem like the Reds did better in the Bruce trade because of the medical issue? Isn't Dilson Herrera > Brandon Nimmo + Chris Flexen?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I have heard three different stories on who actually failed a medical in the deal. The only stuff I have seem officially reported was Nimmo and Wotell were in the deal, and then it was Herrera/Wotell. Read into that what you will. Personally, yeah I would prefer Herrera to Nimmo, but there isn't a huge difference, and Herrera being limited to 2B could be an issue for some teams (Mets included apparently).

bwe206 (Brooklyn): Man remember when Eamus>>>>Murphy>>>>Turner

Jeffrey Paternostro: The King of Colorado Springs

TC (Freehold): Thanks for your answer to my Desmond Lindsay Q! How many Mets do you think make this upcoming offseasons top 100? Generally speaking, are there any Mets prospects you like more than the average guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Rosario will be very high. I will argue Szapucki on I imagine. Dunn and Smith will probably be in the conversation, but I wouldn't bet strongly on either.

Jeff (Toronto): Where is Jose Bautista playing a year from now and how many more years can he continue his elite numbers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Seems like a logical fit for Boston with Ortiz retiring, and Dombrowksi is not shy about aggressive moves for free agents.

AT (Charleston ): Jeff, I know he's a long way away and will outgrow SS, but do you have any thoughts on Dermis Garcia?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I didn't catch Pulaski this year, so I don't have a ton to add past what Adam wrote in a chat a couple weeks ago:

"I'll have a more complete Appy League summation on a per-team basis (hopefully next week...), but here's a basic capsule on Dermis Garcia (note this was written earlier in the Appy League season):

Garcia signed for 3 million in 2014, his calling cards a classic corner profile toolset with size and easy right-handed raw power. He's put the juice in his bat on display the first two weeks of the Appy Legaue season, already belting five homeruns. A large, physical 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, his swing has natural plus torque and lift, and the ball really jumps off the barrel when he squares it up. The swing-path and hand-speed on his frame make it easy to see where future homerun power could stem from, but like many young power hitters in the Appy League, Garcia's approach and ability to limit strikeouts are in the nascent stages. Despite his power surge to begin his 2016 season, he's also struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances. He has a strong arm and his hands work enough at the hot corner, but an increasingly-thick lower half leads some to think he may eventually move to a less demanding corner spot."

Carl (MO): Does Kolton Wong have any upside left?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He was always more polish than projection even as a prospect. I think you got what you got. A .260, 10 home run type with some positional flexibility.

bwe206 (Brooklyn): Would you have rather the Mets got the chance to draft and spend big on Blake Rutherford or what they ended up with?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess the math here is Rutherford or Dunn/Planck? I generally err on getting the best talent at the top that you can, so I'd lean Rutherford.

Jason (NY): Does Szapucki remind you of Matz circa 2012-2013 in Kingsport and Savannah? Similar bodies, live arms, ++ velo for lefties, lots of life but command and secondaries still a little unpolished. Upside wise, what would you rate Szapucki?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Not an awful comp. Szapucki was younger, rawer, but less scary medicals. Matz's delivery was better even then. Similar upside, similar risk, different risk profiles. I was way too low on Matz coming out of Kingsport, but he got shut down (again) and I didn't see it live.

Jose (Queens): Question I've always been meaning to ask a prospects guy: what is the difference between a guy, GUY, dude and DUDE?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think everyone has a slightly different system for this, it isn't codified like the 20/80 scale.

For me it is something like:

Just a guy: not an np, but org type
He's a guy: prospect, probably one I like more than others
He's a dude: serious prospect, major league grade
He's a mother****er, rarefied air, also requires an ineffable, well, mother****erness

Josh (NYC): You just said "although they like Nimmo a lot" referring to the Mets - how do you think they view him? It seems that they liked Herrera more since they initially tried to include Nimmo, no?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nimmo's profile is very much in line with what this front office values in hitters. Nimmo is also generally speaking, a very likable guy. Again, I also heard a bunch of different deals for Bruce throughout Monday, and an early one didn't even have Nimmo as the best prospect in it (at least in my mind). So it is tough to read too much into how the deal morphed. I assume we will get a tick-tock on it from one of the beats early in the offseason much like with Cespedes last year. That might clear some things up.

Brian (Penn Station Hell District): Is Rafael Montero totally finished? The fellow has completely fallen off the map it seems.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Vegas just breaks non-elite pitching prospects (and some elite pitching prospects). Ynoa could be a half-run to a run better per nine in the majors and I wouldn't be shocked. That said, Montero was always a tough fit without even an average breaking ball, and he just isn't going to get called up to pitch for a Collins-led team (if you want to talk about guys the org doesn't love...).

Reed (AZ): Do you think Anthony Kay gets TJ soon? Do the mets regret this pick?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I didn't see the medicals, and if it was *imminent*, the bonus probably isn't seven figures? There is only so much you can know pre-draft, and if he just needs rest and rehab, it's not really a big deal. He wasn't going to pitch much this Summer anyway after the UCONN workload.

If you want to be extra-cynical, the cost savings allowed them to grab Planck too.

bwe206 (Brooklyn): Not meaning for this to be an #OmarsTeam things but it seems like the Alderson regime has struggled with drafting

Jeffrey Paternostro: We have six drafts for both FO now, though we aren't far enough away from the last few Alderson ones to really judge. They have had more high picks than Omar (for totally understandable reasons), and yeah, getting three role 45-50 types in the top half of the first round isn't ideal. Conforto papers over a lot of that if he gets back to where he was (much like Harvey papers over the bad Omar drafts), and it is worth mentioning they have turned a lot of those other early round picks into important pieces for a team that made a deep playoff run. The next couple years will be an interesting transition period for the far system though.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Two hours and 50+ questions in the books (most of which were about Thomas Szapucki, I know). We'll do this again soon.